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ENSO 2017/18
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04-03-2017 8:26pm#1After one of the weakest La Nina events on record, the models immediately turned around to an El Nino situation in 2017/18. Up to February, the models were showing a moderate El Nino and as I already said in the La Nina thread here:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102739020&postcount=21
Moderate El Nino is a good sign of a cold or blocked Winter but there is still a chance for a mild and wet Winter as with Ireland's weather, there is never a guarantee :P.
The CANSIPS model is showing a super strong El Nino :eek: to take place in 2017/18 but that's only two years after the previous super strong El Nino. There have been only three super strong El Nino events in existence so far. These being:- 1982/83
- 1997/98
- 2015/16
What's interesting to point out is the fact that each of the super strong El Nino events above had a remarkably mild Winter month with January 1983, February 1998 and December 2015. Obviously, January 1983 wasn't as extreme as the latter two but it was still very remarkable how mild it was.
We have not had a moderate El Nino since the beautiful Winter of 2009/10..
. It'd be amazing if we got a moderate El Nino this Winter and have a repeat of that Winter BUT we can all care to dream :rolleyes:.
I think the CANSIPS is going way overboard with the super strong El Nino. I don't think it will come off and the most I can expect right now is a moderate El Nino. But hey, just because I don't think it will happen doesn't mean it won't happen.
God love us if it's a super strong El Nino and we have to suffer a month like December 2015 again
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EDIT: Also, it looks as though the cold blob in the Atlantic that has been stuck there since late 2014 will continue through 2017 which will make a negative NAO very difficult to happen. To add some optimism, the cold blob does not look nearly as cold or as large as it was in 2015, so very low chance we will get a month as wet as December 2015 next Winter.... at the moment that is from what I see.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
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UPDATE: The signal is still very strong for an El Nino to take place during the course of 2017/18. The strongest signal is for it to a moderate El Nino.
Please to God don't be a super strong El Nino again!
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UPDATE: A moderate El Nino is still on the cards as predicted by the CFSv2 but the general consensus is quite close to a strong El Nino.
I've gathered some reanalysis here on Winters with a moderate & strong El Nino in regards to 500mb height anomalies.
Here is the reanalysis for Winters with a moderate El Nino:
This reanalysis shows that a moderate El Nino is a great contender for cold winters as the jet stream according to the low pressure distribution is on a very southerly track down towards the Mediterranean and with plenty of northern blocking, very stubborn northern blocking I should say. This northern blocking builds into parts of the UK and Ireland. This reanalysis shows a huge possibility for a cold Winter in 2017/18 if a moderate El Nino were to come off. Northerlies would not be able to take place in this pressure distribution as you would need a build of high pressure to center more towards Greenland and low pressure over Scandinavia. This reanalysis shows that easterly winds would be very evident through the Winter, something some of us have been wanting for so long!
But regardless of saying all this, you can't guarantee a cold Winter with a moderate El Nino as evident from Winter 1987/88 or Winter 1991/92 or Winter 2002/03. Let's just hope that if a moderate El Nino does take place, the NAO will go very negative and the QBO will become an easterly.
Meanwhile, here's the reanalysis for strong El Nino winters (not counting very strong El Nino winters like 1982/83, 1997/98 or 2015/16):
In contrast with the moderate El Nino reanalysis, this reanalysis shows a very awful pattern. The reanalysis shows some northern blocking but way over to Canada and western Greenland along with a very deep area of low pressure extending from northern Russia all the way to Mexico with Ireland included in this. In fact, Ireland is centered near one of the places where the low pressure is at its worst. It's clearly evident here that a strong El Nino is most certainly not a good sign for a cold Winter, far from it actually. Instead, a very stormy Winter could well take place if a strong El Nino were to take place. There has not been a strong El Nino since 1972/73, so we're overdue a strong El Nino at this stage and given how dry this past Winter was, we're due a very stormy Winter I think.
These are only predictions based on previous occurrences of moderate and strong El Ninos, not in any way a guarantee.
Reanalysis charts sourced from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.v2.plPhotography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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I found this interesting graph today which shows the NAO for December to February (Meteorological Winter) from 1900 to 2012 or Winter 1899/1900 to Winter 2011/12.
Out of the moderate El Ninos that have been recorded, a negative NAO has occurred during Winter 2009/10, Winter 2002/03 (though very weak negative NAO), Winter 1987/88 and Winter 1963/64. So this means that a negative NAO has taken place in all moderate El Nino winters since 1963 with the exception of 1988/89 and 1991/92.
If a moderate El Nino were to take place, we would have a 66% chance of a negative NAO to take place. Therefore, that means 34% chance of a positive NAO to take place. So with a moderate El Nino, it is much more likely for a negative NAO to happen than a positive one which is good for cold winters.
The graph shows that Winter 2009/10 had the most negative NAO within the last 100 years which is very interesting and Winter 1962/63's NAO is the 3rd most negative.
I'll hopefully find the AO for the same period as this graph represents with the NAO. Let's hope there is some good correlation once I do though I'd highly doubt that knowing our climate never has any guarantees and will always surprise us with exceptions to our theories
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NAO graph sourced from: https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/abstracts/Mar/16032013-burt.pdfPhotography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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The latest SST anomaly chart here from NOAA shows temperatures in the ENSO region up to the standard of a very, very weak El Nino (or maybe neutral?) though the ENSO region in the eastern Pacific has temperatures up to the standard of a super strong El Nino with anomalies of over +5.0c. Due to the northern Pacific being much colder than it has been in recent years since like Winter 2012/13 along with the rather uneventful temperatures in the rest of the ENSO region bar the eastern Pacific, I think the chart is indicating neutral conditions once you consider all these. The NAO is looking quite positive given how cool the north Atlantic still is, that annoying cold blob is still not gone!
Here's the SST anomalies for this time last year. As you can see, the super strong El Nino became a rather moderate to strong El Nino by March 2016. It's also interesting to point out that the northern Pacific was also quite cool, like now in 2017 along with the northern Atlantic being very cold which meant that the NAO was very positive.
It's funny to find this NAO index and anomaly chart from 2015/16 now like it's showing that the NAO was going to super negative like 2010 standard NAO during the middle of January 2016 :pac::pac:, ah god nobody knew what was around the corner.... 15c during the day and 10-12c at night for Christ sake :rolleyes:. I just came across this and wanted to show it 'cause it's so funny looking back on this.
Here are all the such charts of the SST anomalies for this period of time before recent moderate El Ninos to compare with the current one:
There was no sign of a moderate El Nino in March 2009 around this period of time interestingly. The Pacific was firmly in a La Nina type setup.
Mmmm, there was no sign of a moderate El Nino in March 2002 either :cool:. It'd be interesting to see if the models were predicting a moderate El Nino during those years but unfortunately, I cannot find out that.
The confidence of a moderate El Nino to take place by the CFS v2 is still high.
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The CFSv2 continues to show confidence of an El Nino to take place during 2017 and into 2018 but confidence of a moderate El Nino has now been downgraded to a weak El Nino. Beware that there are still a good few ensembles going for a moderate El Nino but from what the general consensus is showing, they're outliers.
As a result of this, I gathered this pressure reanalysis on Weak El Nino winters. The reanalysis shows some intense northern blocking which is normally required for a cold Winter like 2009/10 or 1962/63. However, there is a deep trough over much of Europe including the UK and Ireland. Like strong El Nino winters, this is pretty straightforward. With this setup if we do get a weak El Nino, expect a very stormy Winter like 2006/07 (which had a weak El Nino) or 1994/95. Again I say though, with Ireland's weather, you can never guarantee anything. This reanalysis however shows that a weak El Nino is a very good sign for a stormy Winter.
What about the summers that followed the weak El Ninos? Well here's the pressure reanalysis of the summers that followed those weak El Nino winters. The reanalysis again shows very stubborn and intense northern blocking with a trough to the south of the UK and mainland Europe. This looks like a very cool and poor Summer setup to me. I like to compare this setup to Summer 2015. Summer 2015 had northern blocking and a trough right over us with high pressure over the continent. This gave us a very cool Summer. However, the trough is more over Europe this time. So should we expect a somewhat more settled Summer in 2018 (if a weak El Nino comes off) than 2015 with the slightly different setup?
The temperature reanalysis here of the same summers, however, shows that temperature anomalies are around average in Ireland with any cold temperatures more towards the southeast of England. Also, temperature anomalies look slightly above average to the west and northwest of Ireland. This is a weird distribution of temperature anomalies :cool:. The pressure reanalysis shows the potential for a poor Summer whilst the temperature anomalies show it as a very benign Summer. I would also like to point out that Summer 1995 is included here, as it followed the weak El Nino of 1994/95 (which was a very stormy and wet Winter). Summer 1995 is a bit weird here because it was much different than what the reanalysis shows. Goes to show ya that reanalysis doesn't tell you everything!
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The El Nino continues to be downgraded by the CFSv2. The CFSv2 is now on the borderline between weak El Nino and ENSO neutral.
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I wonder does this mean a serious drought this year goes from possible to probable?sryanbruen wrote: »The El Nino continues to be downgraded by the CFSv2. The CFSv2 is now on the borderline between weak El Nino and ENSO neutral.0 -
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pedigree 6 wrote: »I wonder does this mean a serious drought this year goes from possible to probable?
Looks to be that way.
The CFSv2 is now predicting ENSO neutral as we go into 2018, well the consensus is. Some ensembles are still going for an El Nino event. Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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The CFSv2 is showing very weak El Nino conditions up until July but if that's the case, an official El Nino will not be designated as you need to have five tri-monthly periods with an ENSO anomaly of +0.5c or more. After July, ENSO looks like going to neutral according to the CFSv2.
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Since April according to the models, the ENSO region has been on the borderline of ENSO neutral and Weak El Nino. Remember that to get an El Nino designated, you need to have five tri-monthly periods with an ENSO anomaly of +0.5c or more. According to the CFSv2, around August the temperatures in the ENSO region are gonna drop down to ENSO neutral status and even go close to cooler than average in early 2018 - that's a long way off however and will highly likely change as we get closer to the timeframe.
Whilst the CFS is still showing the possibility of a Weak El Nino though very weak and uncertain, the ECMWF is still going for the high possibility of a Weak El Nino.
The Jamstec, after a few months of being certain that we'd see an El Nino event taking off, has scratched the idea of an El Nino and is going for ENSO neutral now for 2017/18. Goes to show ya how bad the Spring unpredictable barrier can be.
These are my analogues/reanalysis from NOAA for both situations whether we will get a Weak El Nino or ENSO neutral this Winter.
This one is the ENSO neutral winters that were preceded by Weak La Nina winters the year before. It shows very strong Northern Blocking over Greenland and Iceland with a trough to the south of Ireland extending into the Mediterranean. This brings the wind in from an easterly direction. This is a beautiful setup if you want a cold Winter.
This reanalysis on Weak El Nino winters that were preceded by Weak La Nina winters the year before shows again some intense Northern Blocking over Greenland but more towards Canada and North America this time. The trough is more or less parked right over Ireland which gives away to a very unsettled and stormy Winter. Winter 2013/14, though not having a Weak El Nino or the previous Winter having Weak La Nina, is very evident of this kind of setup.
Our Winter can have a very different setup whether it will be either situation with ENSO.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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The last month has been quiet for ENSO with neutral conditions but it has suddenly gotten very interesting. The SOI for June of -10.4 showed that the atmosphere over the Pacific was in an El Nino setup and there was not a single day with La Nina (i.e. positive SOI values) values. However, July has been a different story with many La Nina SOI days: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/. There was some very positive SOI days especially the 20th and 21st July. However, unlike June, there still have been some days where the atmospheric setup was in favor of El Nino according to the SOI in July. Right now it's rather positive thus in favor of La Nina.
The Pacific waters looking at the below chart are cooling down significantly from where they were in Spring and early Summer. At the same time, the PDO is becoming positive i.e. warm compared to how cool it was in Spring. These are very interesting times for ENSO. Could we have another Weak La Nina for the second Winter in a row or will we stay neutral? I think we will stay neutral but as can be seen from last Winter which was arguably the weakest La Nina on record, it can be a La Nina event regardless of how weak it looks.
The CFSv2 shows the possibility of a Weak La Nina but it reaches the threshold in early 2018 which is weird cause you'd expect the La Nina to start going back to neutral - normally around that point rather than getting more intense. Anyway it's a long way off and you can see how disastrous the models have been with predicting this ENSO as previously they were showing El Nino.
To finish off this update, I want to give you guys something exciting. If a Weak La Nina were to come off, it'd be a good chance for a cold Winter going by previous occurrences of Weak La Nina to Weak La Nina winters. This reanalysis shows low pressure to the south, high pressure over Scandinavia with the winds coming from an easterly. There is only one bad Winter in the mix, 1909/10 which was a terrible Winter but it was at least average for snowfall. If not a cold, snowy Winter then another anticyclonic Winter like 2016/17 again that the reanalysis shows.
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Little to no sign of La Nina from the models. The majority of them are on the warm side of neutral to perhaps Weak El Nino status.
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Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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I know we've had a double El Nino which was considered rare, how rare would 3 el ninos in a row be?
Are we talking about totally unprecedented here? And might it indicate a breakdown of the southern oscillation as we used to know it?
Just asking here, when has there been a double El Nino in recent times? As you can see from my chart below showing the ENSO events going back to 1865-66, the last time there was a consecutive double El Nino event was 1986/87 & 1987/88. The chart shows a double El Nino is not uncommon but it's quite rare also.
A close double El Nino in recent times was 2014/15 & 2015/16. However, currently the 2014/15 failed Weak El Nino event is considered ENSO neutral than El Nino by NOAA. Though, NOAA continues to change the ENSO SST anomalies so in future, the 2014/15 failed Weak El Nino event could be considered ENSO neutral - or it could continue to be considered ENSO neutral? Winter 1962/63 also had a failed very Weak El Nino and a few years ago, it was considered a Weak El Nino Winter but currently stands as an ENSO neutral Winter.
As for triple El Nino, there has only been one such occurrence since 1865-66, 1951/52, 1952/53 & 1953/54 - tell me if I have missed one by looking at my chart. So no, it's not unprecedented.
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The Pacific has cooled down very significantly so during August with this being the current temperature profile. At the same time, the PDO region towards Alaska has been warming up. El Nino is definitely well and truly out the door. With the PDO becoming very warm or positive, La Nina will have a very hard time to get going if the Pacific continues to cool down. In fact the central part of the ENSO has anomalies getting below -1c. The change of ENSO towards La Nina and also the positive SOIs are a result of our Summer becoming pear shaped.
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Are 'good' summers here in Ireland contingent on the NINO index? One of the coolest summer's in recent times ( 2015) occurred during a fully fledged El Nino; while one of the warmest (1995) happened during a neutral to negative neutral phase (similar to this year)
I was only saying that on behalf of a UK weather enthusiast who commented that on the GWV comment box - and yes I'm on the comment box
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I haven't seen myself.
Btw, did anybody let you know that I did try replying to your question yesterday but I couldn't due to errors again and again and again then I lost my reply of what I was going to say because I accidentally put something else in my clipboard?Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
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The ENSO region is continuing to have a plunge in its SST anomalies just two weeks later. The signature for La Nina is definitely becoming very noticeable.
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What a time it is to be looking at the ENSO. This is the latest SST anomaly chart from NOAA - it was released on Thursday. The ENSO region has yet again significantly cooled down. This looks to be a central based La Nina from where the coldest of the anomalies are starting out from. A central based La Nina is called La Nina Modoki and there is evidence that this can help produce northern blocking but I don't think the evidence is as reliable as it is for El Nino Modoki. Nevertheless, very interesting.
The CFSv2 tri-monthly periods chart here for ENSO 3.4 clearly shows the model is well and truly going for a designated La Nina through 2017/18. Some tri-monthly periods show anomalies of less than -1.0c which would bring the strength of the La Nina into moderate category. However, this is not supported enough right now from its ensembles and the fact that it doesn't take place over 5 tri-monthly periods which is required to get it designated. Nevertheless, a Weak La Nina is definitely showing on the CFSv2 - and you saw from my reanalysis' what a Weak La Nina could mean for our Winter.
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The Pacific is still cooling down and quite significantly so. At this rate, we will certainly have a Weak La Nina event for 2017/18 (again) but due to the continued cooling of the waters, we could be heading towards perhaps a Moderate La Nina event. The CFSv2 is clearly showing the chances of a Moderate La Nina taking place with some ensembles going as extreme as a Strong La Nina to take place during 2017/18. The La Nina signature here on the SST anomalies is helped a lot by the fact that the subsurface temperature anomalies are also cold for the ENSO region.
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Look at those purple colours/anomalies starting to appear in the Pacific now.
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sryanbruen wrote: »Look at those purple colours/anomalies starting to appear in the Pacific now.
Getting off topic a little bit but I'm looking at the colours for the North Atlantic.
Is that what they call a tri pole?
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The ENSO region has significantly warmed up in the last week with the dark blue colours now gone off the chart. However, models like the CFSv2 are continuing to go for a La Nina for 2017/18. If the ENSO region continues to warm up, we're on a par with 2012 which had El Nino-like conditions in the Summer but then La Nina in the Autumn and on the positive side of neutral in the Winter.
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The ENSO region has cooled back down in the latest update.
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