March 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

Tae laidir

Knock Airport slipped to (only) -1.2 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

I wonder if that was about where it stalled last night around midnight? Saw some slightly lower readings around 0400h in Northern Ireland (something like -2 at Castlederg). But I think we'll have a proper MIN over the next four nights somewhere or other. Also a proper MAX by the looks of the charts.

Here's the week three update (yes I'm up early but on daylight saving time so not quite as bad as it seems) ...

IMT now on 7.8 after a week that averaged 8.2 C, which is 1.1 above normal. I could see this coming up slightly by end of month given that there are more warm days ahead than cold, so might finish close to 8.0?

PRC has edged slightly down again to 132% of normal now, after a fairly average sort of week (121% but considerable variation). This could finish a bit lower but probably won't make it below about 110% given the short amount of time left and today's additions. If we're at 135% now, a totally dry nine days would leave the month at 95% so that much is guaranteed.

SUN has been reduced to 84% of normal after a rather dull week (averaged 73%) in most counties (although near average in Dublin and far north). You would have to think this might improve again, would take something like a 50% surplus now to get back to normal for the month, so I will speculate an out-turn of maybe 95%.

MAX 17.1 and MIN --1.2 so far.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle equaled -1.2 yesterday.

pauldry

-2.8c Markree

19c Valencia

DOCARCH

19.2c yesterday at Newport.

pauldry

Considering the first week of March was colder than normal an IMT of 8c is quite impressive.

Moreover so far 2017 has been nearly 2c above normal for first three months in some parts of the West and Southwest as well as the East.

Of course Summer might bring back the average once its 14c everyday, but seriously I think Summer will be reasonably warm in 2017.

M.T. Cranium

Also, Markree had a MIN of -3.4 on Saturday, so MAX and MIN on same day.

(until further notice)

MTC making progress in the MAX MIN losing ground in the IMT. Oh well.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

MTC making progress in the MAX MIN losing ground in the IMT. Oh well.

We're all going backwards on IMT.
Some of us are going backwards on MAX and MIN as well.

M.T. Cranium

Will start an April thread tonight, my time, so it should be there in the morning. Bonus something to do with Easter weather, just pondering my options there.

pauldry

Easter Bonus...how many cm of snow will fall on Easter Sunday?

Or will hail fall in any met station n where?

Or what will the difference between the max and min be on Easter Sunday be in Mullingar for example since thats the middle approx.

Rikand

Will snow fall anywhere on good Friday before rising on easter Monday ?

M.T. Cranium

Week four update ...

IMT was slightly above normal at 7.6 (+0.2 from average) and this leaves the IMT at 7.8 rounded up from 7.76. It takes an average of ten to get this to 8.0 and that seems about right for an outcome.

MAX and MIN both set on Saturday 25th at 19.2 and -3.4, probably set now and the field avoided being handed the reduced mercy rule as John mac went 18.8, I went for 19.8 -- the reduced mercy rule would be invoked if one person scores a natural unaided 18 or higher and it would mean half of the usual rank-order score adjustment in your favour. As it stands you can calculate your score for MAX by looking at your ranking and counting down from the 18 points that John mac will get on the 19.2 outcome. I will double up for the bottom two pairs. Not sure if some adjustments may be needed on MIN scoring, top end seems okay as is.

PRC is down to 111.5% as the week was generally quite dry (49% on average, although Casement well above normal while Malin Head zero). This will now get a late boost to around 115% for an outcome, I would estimate.

SUN was the big player last week, now up to 110% of normal as the week averaged 187%. If these last three days manage only half of normal which seems possible, then the outcome will be 105% of normal. We are more or less at the point where zero sunshine 29th to 31st (already undone slightly?) would leave the final value at the 100% mark.

I will have a look at forecasts and edit in my estimates of who scored highest for the month, on the wrong page to look.

M.T. Cranium

Well, once I had a look, I could see several with high totals and I didn't have the bonus scores on that page, so might as well post a provisional scoring table based on my estimates and adjust it at the end of the month where needed.

Provisional scoring for March 2017

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus 17th Dub __ TOTALS

__ Estimated values ____ 8.0_19.2_--3.4_115_105___ 11.3, 1.9

john mac ___ (-2) ______14 _ 19*_ 20 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 5 __ 81-2=79
M.T. Cranium __________19 _ 17*_ 12 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 2 _ 4 _______ 77
mickger844posts _______18 _ 10*_ 20 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 76

Con Sensus ___________ 16 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 75

Lumi ________________ 16 _ 11*_ 19 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 73
200motels ____________23 _ 13*_ 10 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 70
Rikand _______________20 _ 14*_ 14 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 68
waterways ____________21 _ 15*_ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 67
DOCARCH ____________ 09 _ 12*_ 13 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 67

NormaL ______________ 13 _ 12*_ 09 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 65

Pauldry_______________14 _ 05*_ 17 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 5 _______ 64
JCX BXC _____________ 18 _ 16*_ 09 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 64
sryanbruen ___________ 24 _ 04*_ 16 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 63
Sunflower3 ___________ 19 _ 10*_ 06 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 62
Dasa29 ______________ 16 _ 02*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 1 _______ 62
Bsal _________________15 _ 10*_ 06 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 61
Joe Public_____________ 11 _ 03*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 4 +1 ____ 58
Kindred Spirit _________ 15 _ 10*_ 06 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 57
Tae laidir _____________20 _ 07*_ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 56
Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 16 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 __ 59-3=56
MrSkinner ____________ 03 _ 03*_ 06 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 43
Jpmarn ______________ 03 _ 06*_ 00 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 24

__________________________________________

* scores adjusted for minimum progression ... with five at 17.0 tied at 10 points, I thought it fair to drop only three instead of five after that, and let the scores finish out at 2. Also, I boosted high score of 18 to 19 to preserve a bit of the scale of the actual errors. As you are probably aware, scores for Con and NormaL are generated from this process without counting against anybody lower.

Comments: These were relatively high scores compared to most months, don't think they can change more than 5 or so depending on how much rain falls tomorrow and Friday, will confirm these on the fourth of April (unfortunately will have to wait that long because of a weekend starting the month so Tuesday 4th will be when I see the final numbers, can calculate the final IMT and PRC on the first however and re-evaluate sunshine based on actual daily data. You never know about MAX and MIN until they are confirmed.

(forecasts for future reference)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp,prec 17th Dub

sryanbruen ___________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ --3.0 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ 5.0 mm
200motels ____________7.8 _ 17.8 _ --2.4 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 16.5 __ 0.0 mm
waterways ____________7.6 _ 18.1 _ --3.0 _ 150 _ 087 ___ 13.0 __ 0.0 mm
Rikand _______________7.5 _ 18.0 _ --4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 13.0 __ 0.1 mm
Tae laidir _____________7.5 _ 16.9 _ --2.0 _ 135 _ 091 ___ 10.6 __ 1.0 mm
M.T. Cranium _________ 7.4 _ 19.8 _ --4.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 13.3 __ 2.5 mm
Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 118 _ 090 ___ 12.5 __ 0.0 mm
JCX BXC _____________ 7.3 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 110 _ 075 ___ 15.5 __ 0.0 mm
mickger844posts ______ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ --3.4 _ 119 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 0.0 mm
Lumi ________________ 7.1 _ 17.3 _ --3.3 _ 107 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __ 2.5 mm

Con Sensus ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 1.4 mm

Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 7.1 _ 17.0 _ --4.1 _ 088 _ 101 ____ 9.0 __ 0.1 mm
Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 15.0 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __10.0 mm
Bsal _________________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 3.0 mm
Kindred Spirit _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 4.0 mm
john mac ___ (-2) ______6.9 _ 18.8 _ --3.4 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 15.3 __ 1.5 mm
Pauldry_______________6.9 _ 16.5 _ --3.7 _ 121 _ 090 ___ 10.3 __ 1.8 mm

NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ 1.7 mm

Joe Public_____________6.6 _ 15.9 _ --3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 11.1 __ 0.9 mm
DOCARCH ____________ 6.4 _ 17.3 _ --2.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 11.3 __ 2.3 mm
Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 16.8 _ --6.8 _ 140 _ 082 ____ 7.8 __ 4.5mm
MrSkinner ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ --4.8 _ 118 _ 088 ___ 10.8 __ 1.4 mm

John mac

nice to be in the top 10 for a change

M.T. Cranium

Final values confirmed:

IMT finished on 8.1 (from 8.14). Everyone loses one point on that deal.

PRC average 117% so a slight adjustment required there (to provisional scores).

SUN looks to have done well on 31st so may be closer to 107% than the 105% that I estimated, scores will only change if the numbers creep as high as 108% (in almost all cases, sunshine forecasts are multiples of 5% or if not, won't change for 106 or 107). This one I need to check against MS as I am still just estimating, the first two are final values from monthly data tables.

So now it's wait and see what is published on the 4th, would not expect a lot of changes with that.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed final values from MS (including those already mentioned)>

IMT was 8.1

MAX was 19.2

MIN was --3.3 (this is 0.1 higher than we recorded during the month but daily data confirms this)

PRC 117%

SUN 110%

which is handy because at 5% higher than estimated, all scores change by 1.

-- will adjust the MIN, PRC and SUN in the provisional scoring table and publish that soon (not right away, have to pop out). Then update for the annual totals.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed final scoring for March 2017

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus 17th Dub __ TOTALS

__ Confirmed values ____ 8.1_19.2_--3.3_117_110__11.3, 1.9

john mac ___ (-2) ______13 _ 19*_ 19 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 1 _ 5 __ 78-2=76
M.T. Cranium __________18 _ 17*_ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 4 _______ 75

Con Sensus ___________ 15 _ 10*_ 20 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 74

mickger844posts _______17 _ 10*_ 19 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 73
Lumi ________________ 15 _ 11*_ 20 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 72
200motels ____________22 _ 13*_ 11 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 69
waterways ____________20 _ 15*_ 17 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 67
Rikand _______________19 _ 14*_ 13 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 66
DOCARCH ____________ 08 _ 12*_ 14 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 65
JCX BXC _____________ 17 _ 16*_ 10 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 63
Pauldry_______________13 _ 05*_ 16 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 5 _______ 62
sryanbruen ___________ 23 _ 04*_ 17 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 62
Sunflower3 ___________ 18 _ 10*_ 07 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 62

NormaL ______________ 12 _ 12*_ 08 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 61

Bsal _________________14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 60
Dasa29 ______________ 15 _ 02*_ 18 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 1 _______ 59
Tae laidir _____________19 _ 07*_ 07 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 56
Kindred Spirit _________ 14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 55
Joe Public_____________10 _ 03*_ 14 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 4 +1 ____ 54
Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 15 _ 10*_ 12 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 3 __ 55-3=52
MrSkinner ____________ 02 _ 03*_ 05 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 41
Jpmarn ______________ 02 _ 06*_ 00 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 22

____________________________________________________


* scores adjusted for minimum progression ... with five at 17.0 tied at 10 points, I thought it fair to drop only three instead of five after that, and let the scores finish out at 2. Also, I boosted high score of 18 to 19 to preserve a bit of the scale of the actual errors. As you are probably aware, scores for Con and NormaL are generated from this process without counting against anybody lower.

Congrats to John mac, MTC (huh?) and mickger844posts for top three finishes this month; changes to provisional scoring were mostly downwards or sideways, everyone lost two points on IMT plus sun except Rikand who was the lone forecaster above the actual sunshine percentage. The other changes to MIN and PRC could move you up or down as much as two points, some stayed even though on PRC. -- annual updates to be posted shortly I hope.

(forecasts for future reference)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp,prec 17th Dub

sryanbruen ___________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ --3.0 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ 5.0 mm
200motels ____________7.8 _ 17.8 _ --2.4 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 16.5 __ 0.0 mm
waterways ____________7.6 _ 18.1 _ --3.0 _ 150 _ 087 ___ 13.0 __ 0.0 mm
Rikand _______________7.5 _ 18.0 _ --4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 13.0 __ 0.1 mm
Tae laidir _____________7.5 _ 16.9 _ --2.0 _ 135 _ 091 ___ 10.6 __ 1.0 mm
M.T. Cranium _________ 7.4 _ 19.8 _ --4.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 13.3 __ 2.5 mm
Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 118 _ 090 ___ 12.5 __ 0.0 mm
JCX BXC _____________ 7.3 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 110 _ 075 ___ 15.5 __ 0.0 mm
mickger844posts ______ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ --3.4 _ 119 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 0.0 mm
Lumi ________________ 7.1 _ 17.3 _ --3.3 _ 107 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __ 2.5 mm

Con Sensus ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 1.4 mm

Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 7.1 _ 17.0 _ --4.1 _ 088 _ 101 ____ 9.0 __ 0.1 mm
Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 15.0 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __10.0 mm
Bsal _________________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 3.0 mm
Kindred Spirit _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 4.0 mm
john mac ___ (-2) ______6.9 _ 18.8 _ --3.4 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 15.3 __ 1.5 mm
Pauldry_______________6.9 _ 16.5 _ --3.7 _ 121 _ 090 ___ 10.3 __ 1.8 mm

NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ 1.7 mm

Joe Public_____________6.6 _ 15.9 _ --3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 11.1 __ 0.9 mm
DOCARCH ____________ 6.4 _ 17.3 _ --2.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 11.3 __ 2.3 mm
Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 16.8 _ --6.8 _ 140 _ 082 ____ 7.8 __ 4.5mm
MrSkinner ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ --4.8 _ 118 _ 088 ___ 10.8 __ 1.4 mm

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to March 2017


rank/
__ FORECASTER ____ JAN _ FEB _ MAR ___ TOTAL

01 pauldry __________ 74 __ 66 __ 62 _____ 202
t02 Lumi ____________57 __ 72 __ 72 _____ 201
t02 mickger844posts __ 74 __ 54 __ 73 _____ 201

04 Con Sensus _______59 __ 66 __ 74 _____ 199

04 John mac ________ 58 __ 59 __ 76 _____ 193
05 Kindred Spirit _____ 54 __ 78 __ 55 _____ 187
06 DOCARCH ________ 47 __ 73 __ 65 _____ 185
07 200motels ________64 __ 51 __ 69 _____ 184
08 Rikand ___________54 __ 63 __ 66 _____ 183
t09 Tae laidir ________ 68 __ 57 __ 56 _____ 181
t09 sryanbruen _______43 __ 76 __ 62 _____ 181
t11 waterways _______ 49 __ 58 __ 67 _____ 174
t11 M.T. Cranium _____53 __ 46 __ 75 _____ 174

13 NormaL __________43 __ 68 __ 61 _____ 172

13 Bsal ____________ 49 __ 58 __ 60 _____ 167
14 Rameire _________ 57 __ 56 __ 52 _____ 165
15 Dasa29 __________55 __ 49 __ 59 _____ 163
16 Jpmarn __________70 __ 70 __ 22 _____ 162
17 MrSkinner ________50 __ 66 __ 41 _____ 157
18 sunflower3 _______ 46 __ 48 __ 62 _____ 156
19 Joe Public ________ 36 __ 57 __ 54 _____ 147
20 JCX BXC _________ --- __ 60 __ 63 _____ 123
21 Dacogawa ________46 __ 62 __ --- _____ 108

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So, the scoring is quite tight near the top of the table. I spotted a minor error in the additions from the last table so there may be some edit required of the annual table in the February thread and the associated winter seasonal scoring.