March 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during March. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature at Dublin (A) on the 17th, and the rainfall in mm. -- 5 points for the temperature, 5 for the rainfall and 2, 1 point superbonus points available.

Enter by the deadline of 0300h Wednesday 1st of March, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 15 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

Good luck!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 7.9 _ 16.0_ -3.0 _ 140_ 95_ 13.0c, 5mm

Bsal

Bsal __________ 7.0 _ 17.0_ -2.0 _ 110_ 100_ 11.0c, 3mm

200motels

200motels ______________ 7.8__ 17.8__-2.4___111___90___16.5 0mm

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 7.1 _ 15.0_ -3.5 _ 110_ 90_ 12.0c, 10mm

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 6.4 _ 17.3_ -2.7 _ 108_ 95_ 11.3c, 2.3mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 7.5 _ 16.9 _ -2.0 _ 135 _ 91 _ 10.6c, 1.0mm

pauldry

Ill Try again

pauldry

Pauldry__________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _ -3.7_ 121_ 90 _ 10.3c, 1.8mm

Joe Public

Joe Public__________ 6.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.9_ 99_ 99 _ 11.1°C, .9mm

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __________ 7.4 _ 17.0_ -2.0 _ 118_ 90_ 12.5c, 0mm

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 7.3 _ 17.0_ -3.4 _ 119_ 91_ 12.0c, 0mm

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit _______ 7.0 ___ 17.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 11.0 ___4mm

Lumi

Lumi _______ 7.1 ___ 17.3 ___ -3.3 ___ 107 ___ 90 ___ 12.0 ___ 2.5mm

JCX BXC

JCX BXC _________ 7.3 _ 18.5_ -2.3 _ 110_ 75_ 15.5c, 0mm

mrskinner

Skinner...5.8.....15.8°......-4.8°.....118%......88%.....10.8°

waterways

waterways __________ 7.6 _ 18.1_ -3.0 _ 150 _ 87 _ 13.0, 0.0mm

Jpmarn

Jpmarn......5.8.....16.8°......-6.8°.....140%......82%.....7.8° ...4.5mm

Rikand

Rikand ___ 7.5 ___ 18.0 ___ -4.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 13.0c _ 0.1mm

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _______ 7.4 __ 19.8 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 105 __ 13.3 and 2.5 mm (17th)

John mac

john mac _______ 6.9 __ 18.8 _ -3.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 15.3 and 1.5 mm

rameire

Rameire ___ 7.1 ___ 17.0 ___ -4.1 ___ 88 ___ 101 ___ 9.0c _ 0.1mm

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts, March 2017


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp,prec 17th Dub

sryanbruen ___________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ --3.0 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ 5.0 mm
200motels ____________7.8 _ 17.8 _ --2.4 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 16.5 __ 0.0 mm
waterways ____________7.6 _ 18.1 _ --3.0 _ 150 _ 087 ___ 13.0 __ 0.0 mm
Rikand _______________7.5 _ 18.0 _ --4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 13.0 __ 0.1 mm
Tae laidir _____________7.5 _ 16.9 _ --2.0 _ 135 _ 091 ___ 10.6 __ 1.0 mm
M.T. Cranium _________ 7.4 _ 19.8 _ --4.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 13.3 __ 2.5 mm
Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 118 _ 090 ___ 12.5 __ 0.0 mm
JCX BXC _____________ 7.3 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 110 _ 075 ___ 15.5 __ 0.0 mm
mickger844posts ______ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ --3.4 _ 119 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 0.0 mm
Lumi ________________ 7.1 _ 17.3 _ --3.3 _ 107 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __ 2.5 mm

Con Sensus ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 1.4 mm

Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 7.1 _ 17.0 _ --4.1 _ 088 _ 101 ____ 9.0 __ 0.1 mm
Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 15.0 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __10.0 mm
Bsal _________________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 3.0 mm
Kindred Spirit _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 4.0 mm
john mac ___ (-2) ______6.9 _ 18.8 _ --3.4 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 15.3 __ 1.5 mm
Pauldry_______________6.9 _ 16.5 _ --3.7 _ 121 _ 090 ___ 10.3 __ 1.8 mm

NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ 1.7 mm

Joe Public_____________6.6 _ 15.9 _ --3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 11.1 __ 0.9 mm
DOCARCH ____________ 6.4 _ 17.3 _ --2.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 11.3 __ 2.3 mm
Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 16.8 _ --6.8 _ 140 _ 082 ____ 7.8 __ 4.5mm
MrSkinner ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ --4.8 _ 118 _ 088 ___ 10.8 __ 1.4 mm

_____________________________________________________________

So, the consensus seems to be a rather mild, cloudy March with a little extra rainfall, but there's quite a spread on temperature.

If rainfall is greater than 3.5 mm, zero rain will score one point and if greater than 10 mm despite the number of guesses it will score zero and the two lowest measurables will score 1. Anyway, it will be scored in the fairest way considering the range of possible outcomes.

Joe Public

Not easy to predict the March weather
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3ljUQz9HoI

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT is 5.3 C, which is 1.0 deg below average for the period.

PRC is 244% of normal.

SUN is 60% of normal.

MAX is today's high of (edit -- was 14.0 at OP and PP), and MIN that I noticed anyway is --1.1 C set yesterday at Markree. Neither of these will likely last too long.

John mac

Moore Park had 16.1 yesterday .

Tae laidir

Cork Airport basked in 16.3 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the second week ...

IMT at 7.6 C with the second week very warm (9.9 which was 3.1 above average).

PRC now at 138% of normal as a rather dry week (32% of normal) almost compensated for the wet start.

SUN also compensated for the dull start with the average now 90% of normal with the week at 129.5%, held back a bit by Valentia being below normal -- best sunshine was in the north at stations we don't utilize (200% at Malin Head and 189% at Knock).

Max and min appear to be 16.3 and --1.1 not including today.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park reached 17.1 at the end of this warm period.

Tae laidir

Dublin Airport recorded max of 11.3 and 1.9 mm rain.
Zero sunshine.
Pretty NormaL.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, so as reported above, the bonus answers are 11.3 C and 1.9 mm. The same amount of rain was reported at Casement and Phoenix Park and similar max temps.

Under the rules, five points for each element. With 20 entrants, that means groups of four (not giving out any zero points this time). Superbonus is available, if you qualify with five points in each category, you receive 2 added points, either combination of five and four will net you the one superbonus point. So let's see how the points are distributed. (When there are ties, it affects the numbers getting the next lowest level of points. An example you'll note five are tied for 4 points in temperature which means that only three are in line for three points. But three were tied with the third qualifying value so that bumped out a total of two from two points.) NormaL and Con Sensus do not count in terms of assigning numbers of forecasters. I thought it would be most fair to give three points to the zero rainfall crowd. That exhausted two points for rainfall but as there were significant differences in the higher estimates, I split the last cohort into pairs.

TEMPERATURE

5 points -- DOCARCH (11.3, 0.0 error), Joe Public (11.1, 0.2), NormaL (11.5, 0.2), Bsal and Kindred Spirit (11.0, 0.3).

4 points -- Mr Skinner (10.8, 0.5), Tae laidir 10.6 (0.7), Mickger844posts, Lumi and Dasa29 all 12.0 (0.7), also Con Sensus 12.0 (0.7).

3 points -- Pauldry (10.3, 1.0), sunflower3 (12.5, 1.2), sryanbruen, Rikand and waterways (13.0, 1.7).

2 points -- MTC (13.3, 2.0) and Rameire (9.0, 2.3).

1 point -- Jpmarn (7.8), John mac (15.3), JCX BXC (15.5), 200motels (16.5)


RAINFALL

5 pts -- Pauldry (1.8, 0.1 error), NormaL (1.7, 0.2), John mac (1.5, 0.4), DOCARCH (2.3, 0.4), Con Sensus (1.4, 0.5), MrSkinner (1.4, 0.5)

4 pts -- MTC and Lumi (2.5, 0.6), Tae laidir (1.0, 0.9), Joe Public (0.9, 1.0)

3 pts -- Bsal (3.0, 1.1), Rikand and rameire (0.1, 1.8). and all five with zero mm (200motels, waterways, mickger844points, JCX BXC, sunflower3).

2 pts -- Kindred spirit (4.0), Jpmarn (4.5)

1 pt -- Sryanbruen 5.0 and Dasa29 with 10.0.

_________________

superbonus of 2 for DOCARCH

superbonus of 1 for Mr Skinner and Joe Public

Tae laidir

Knock Airport slipped to (only) -1.2 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

I wonder if that was about where it stalled last night around midnight? Saw some slightly lower readings around 0400h in Northern Ireland (something like -2 at Castlederg). But I think we'll have a proper MIN over the next four nights somewhere or other. Also a proper MAX by the looks of the charts.

Here's the week three update (yes I'm up early but on daylight saving time so not quite as bad as it seems) ...

IMT now on 7.8 after a week that averaged 8.2 C, which is 1.1 above normal. I could see this coming up slightly by end of month given that there are more warm days ahead than cold, so might finish close to 8.0?

PRC has edged slightly down again to 132% of normal now, after a fairly average sort of week (121% but considerable variation). This could finish a bit lower but probably won't make it below about 110% given the short amount of time left and today's additions. If we're at 135% now, a totally dry nine days would leave the month at 95% so that much is guaranteed.

SUN has been reduced to 84% of normal after a rather dull week (averaged 73%) in most counties (although near average in Dublin and far north). You would have to think this might improve again, would take something like a 50% surplus now to get back to normal for the month, so I will speculate an out-turn of maybe 95%.

MAX 17.1 and MIN --1.2 so far.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle equaled -1.2 yesterday.

pauldry

-2.8c Markree

19c Valencia

DOCARCH

19.2c yesterday at Newport.

pauldry

Considering the first week of March was colder than normal an IMT of 8c is quite impressive.

Moreover so far 2017 has been nearly 2c above normal for first three months in some parts of the West and Southwest as well as the East.

Of course Summer might bring back the average once its 14c everyday, but seriously I think Summer will be reasonably warm in 2017.

M.T. Cranium

Also, Markree had a MIN of -3.4 on Saturday, so MAX and MIN on same day.

(until further notice)

MTC making progress in the MAX MIN losing ground in the IMT. Oh well.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

MTC making progress in the MAX MIN losing ground in the IMT. Oh well.

We're all going backwards on IMT.
Some of us are going backwards on MAX and MIN as well.

M.T. Cranium

Will start an April thread tonight, my time, so it should be there in the morning. Bonus something to do with Easter weather, just pondering my options there.

pauldry

Easter Bonus...how many cm of snow will fall on Easter Sunday?

Or will hail fall in any met station n where?

Or what will the difference between the max and min be on Easter Sunday be in Mullingar for example since thats the middle approx.

Rikand

Will snow fall anywhere on good Friday before rising on easter Monday ?

M.T. Cranium

Week four update ...

IMT was slightly above normal at 7.6 (+0.2 from average) and this leaves the IMT at 7.8 rounded up from 7.76. It takes an average of ten to get this to 8.0 and that seems about right for an outcome.

MAX and MIN both set on Saturday 25th at 19.2 and -3.4, probably set now and the field avoided being handed the reduced mercy rule as John mac went 18.8, I went for 19.8 -- the reduced mercy rule would be invoked if one person scores a natural unaided 18 or higher and it would mean half of the usual rank-order score adjustment in your favour. As it stands you can calculate your score for MAX by looking at your ranking and counting down from the 18 points that John mac will get on the 19.2 outcome. I will double up for the bottom two pairs. Not sure if some adjustments may be needed on MIN scoring, top end seems okay as is.

PRC is down to 111.5% as the week was generally quite dry (49% on average, although Casement well above normal while Malin Head zero). This will now get a late boost to around 115% for an outcome, I would estimate.

SUN was the big player last week, now up to 110% of normal as the week averaged 187%. If these last three days manage only half of normal which seems possible, then the outcome will be 105% of normal. We are more or less at the point where zero sunshine 29th to 31st (already undone slightly?) would leave the final value at the 100% mark.

I will have a look at forecasts and edit in my estimates of who scored highest for the month, on the wrong page to look.

M.T. Cranium

Well, once I had a look, I could see several with high totals and I didn't have the bonus scores on that page, so might as well post a provisional scoring table based on my estimates and adjust it at the end of the month where needed.

Provisional scoring for March 2017

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus 17th Dub __ TOTALS

__ Estimated values ____ 8.0_19.2_--3.4_115_105___ 11.3, 1.9

john mac ___ (-2) ______14 _ 19*_ 20 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 5 __ 81-2=79
M.T. Cranium __________19 _ 17*_ 12 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 2 _ 4 _______ 77
mickger844posts _______18 _ 10*_ 20 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 76

Con Sensus ___________ 16 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 75

Lumi ________________ 16 _ 11*_ 19 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 73
200motels ____________23 _ 13*_ 10 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 70
Rikand _______________20 _ 14*_ 14 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 68
waterways ____________21 _ 15*_ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 67
DOCARCH ____________ 09 _ 12*_ 13 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 67

NormaL ______________ 13 _ 12*_ 09 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 65

Pauldry_______________14 _ 05*_ 17 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 5 _______ 64
JCX BXC _____________ 18 _ 16*_ 09 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 64
sryanbruen ___________ 24 _ 04*_ 16 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 63
Sunflower3 ___________ 19 _ 10*_ 06 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 62
Dasa29 ______________ 16 _ 02*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 1 _______ 62
Bsal _________________15 _ 10*_ 06 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 61
Joe Public_____________ 11 _ 03*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 4 +1 ____ 58
Kindred Spirit _________ 15 _ 10*_ 06 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 57
Tae laidir _____________20 _ 07*_ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 56
Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 16 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 __ 59-3=56
MrSkinner ____________ 03 _ 03*_ 06 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 43
Jpmarn ______________ 03 _ 06*_ 00 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 24

__________________________________________

* scores adjusted for minimum progression ... with five at 17.0 tied at 10 points, I thought it fair to drop only three instead of five after that, and let the scores finish out at 2. Also, I boosted high score of 18 to 19 to preserve a bit of the scale of the actual errors. As you are probably aware, scores for Con and NormaL are generated from this process without counting against anybody lower.

Comments: These were relatively high scores compared to most months, don't think they can change more than 5 or so depending on how much rain falls tomorrow and Friday, will confirm these on the fourth of April (unfortunately will have to wait that long because of a weekend starting the month so Tuesday 4th will be when I see the final numbers, can calculate the final IMT and PRC on the first however and re-evaluate sunshine based on actual daily data. You never know about MAX and MIN until they are confirmed.

(forecasts for future reference)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp,prec 17th Dub

sryanbruen ___________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ --3.0 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ 5.0 mm
200motels ____________7.8 _ 17.8 _ --2.4 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 16.5 __ 0.0 mm
waterways ____________7.6 _ 18.1 _ --3.0 _ 150 _ 087 ___ 13.0 __ 0.0 mm
Rikand _______________7.5 _ 18.0 _ --4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 13.0 __ 0.1 mm
Tae laidir _____________7.5 _ 16.9 _ --2.0 _ 135 _ 091 ___ 10.6 __ 1.0 mm
M.T. Cranium _________ 7.4 _ 19.8 _ --4.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 13.3 __ 2.5 mm
Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 118 _ 090 ___ 12.5 __ 0.0 mm
JCX BXC _____________ 7.3 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 110 _ 075 ___ 15.5 __ 0.0 mm
mickger844posts ______ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ --3.4 _ 119 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 0.0 mm
Lumi ________________ 7.1 _ 17.3 _ --3.3 _ 107 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __ 2.5 mm

Con Sensus ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 1.4 mm

Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 7.1 _ 17.0 _ --4.1 _ 088 _ 101 ____ 9.0 __ 0.1 mm
Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 15.0 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __10.0 mm
Bsal _________________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 3.0 mm
Kindred Spirit _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 4.0 mm
john mac ___ (-2) ______6.9 _ 18.8 _ --3.4 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 15.3 __ 1.5 mm
Pauldry_______________6.9 _ 16.5 _ --3.7 _ 121 _ 090 ___ 10.3 __ 1.8 mm

NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ 1.7 mm

Joe Public_____________6.6 _ 15.9 _ --3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 11.1 __ 0.9 mm
DOCARCH ____________ 6.4 _ 17.3 _ --2.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 11.3 __ 2.3 mm
Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 16.8 _ --6.8 _ 140 _ 082 ____ 7.8 __ 4.5mm
MrSkinner ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ --4.8 _ 118 _ 088 ___ 10.8 __ 1.4 mm

John mac

nice to be in the top 10 for a change

M.T. Cranium

Final values confirmed:

IMT finished on 8.1 (from 8.14). Everyone loses one point on that deal.

PRC average 117% so a slight adjustment required there (to provisional scores).

SUN looks to have done well on 31st so may be closer to 107% than the 105% that I estimated, scores will only change if the numbers creep as high as 108% (in almost all cases, sunshine forecasts are multiples of 5% or if not, won't change for 106 or 107). This one I need to check against MS as I am still just estimating, the first two are final values from monthly data tables.

So now it's wait and see what is published on the 4th, would not expect a lot of changes with that.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed final values from MS (including those already mentioned)>

IMT was 8.1

MAX was 19.2

MIN was --3.3 (this is 0.1 higher than we recorded during the month but daily data confirms this)

PRC 117%

SUN 110%

which is handy because at 5% higher than estimated, all scores change by 1.

-- will adjust the MIN, PRC and SUN in the provisional scoring table and publish that soon (not right away, have to pop out). Then update for the annual totals.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed final scoring for March 2017

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus 17th Dub __ TOTALS

__ Confirmed values ____ 8.1_19.2_--3.3_117_110__11.3, 1.9

john mac ___ (-2) ______13 _ 19*_ 19 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 1 _ 5 __ 78-2=76
M.T. Cranium __________18 _ 17*_ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 4 _______ 75

Con Sensus ___________ 15 _ 10*_ 20 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 74

mickger844posts _______17 _ 10*_ 19 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 73
Lumi ________________ 15 _ 11*_ 20 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 72
200motels ____________22 _ 13*_ 11 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 69
waterways ____________20 _ 15*_ 17 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 67
Rikand _______________19 _ 14*_ 13 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 66
DOCARCH ____________ 08 _ 12*_ 14 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 65
JCX BXC _____________ 17 _ 16*_ 10 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 63
Pauldry_______________13 _ 05*_ 16 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 5 _______ 62
sryanbruen ___________ 23 _ 04*_ 17 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 62
Sunflower3 ___________ 18 _ 10*_ 07 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 62

NormaL ______________ 12 _ 12*_ 08 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 5 +2 ____ 61

Bsal _________________14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 60
Dasa29 ______________ 15 _ 02*_ 18 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 1 _______ 59
Tae laidir _____________19 _ 07*_ 07 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 4 _______ 56
Kindred Spirit _________ 14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 55
Joe Public_____________10 _ 03*_ 14 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 4 +1 ____ 54
Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 15 _ 10*_ 12 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 3 __ 55-3=52
MrSkinner ____________ 02 _ 03*_ 05 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 4 _ 5 +1 ____ 41
Jpmarn ______________ 02 _ 06*_ 00 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 22

____________________________________________________


* scores adjusted for minimum progression ... with five at 17.0 tied at 10 points, I thought it fair to drop only three instead of five after that, and let the scores finish out at 2. Also, I boosted high score of 18 to 19 to preserve a bit of the scale of the actual errors. As you are probably aware, scores for Con and NormaL are generated from this process without counting against anybody lower.

Congrats to John mac, MTC (huh?) and mickger844posts for top three finishes this month; changes to provisional scoring were mostly downwards or sideways, everyone lost two points on IMT plus sun except Rikand who was the lone forecaster above the actual sunshine percentage. The other changes to MIN and PRC could move you up or down as much as two points, some stayed even though on PRC. -- annual updates to be posted shortly I hope.

(forecasts for future reference)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp,prec 17th Dub

sryanbruen ___________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ --3.0 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ 5.0 mm
200motels ____________7.8 _ 17.8 _ --2.4 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 16.5 __ 0.0 mm
waterways ____________7.6 _ 18.1 _ --3.0 _ 150 _ 087 ___ 13.0 __ 0.0 mm
Rikand _______________7.5 _ 18.0 _ --4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 13.0 __ 0.1 mm
Tae laidir _____________7.5 _ 16.9 _ --2.0 _ 135 _ 091 ___ 10.6 __ 1.0 mm
M.T. Cranium _________ 7.4 _ 19.8 _ --4.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 13.3 __ 2.5 mm
Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 118 _ 090 ___ 12.5 __ 0.0 mm
JCX BXC _____________ 7.3 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 110 _ 075 ___ 15.5 __ 0.0 mm
mickger844posts ______ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ --3.4 _ 119 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 0.0 mm
Lumi ________________ 7.1 _ 17.3 _ --3.3 _ 107 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __ 2.5 mm

Con Sensus ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 1.4 mm

Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 7.1 _ 17.0 _ --4.1 _ 088 _ 101 ____ 9.0 __ 0.1 mm
Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 15.0 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __10.0 mm
Bsal _________________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 3.0 mm
Kindred Spirit _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 4.0 mm
john mac ___ (-2) ______6.9 _ 18.8 _ --3.4 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 15.3 __ 1.5 mm
Pauldry_______________6.9 _ 16.5 _ --3.7 _ 121 _ 090 ___ 10.3 __ 1.8 mm

NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ 1.7 mm

Joe Public_____________6.6 _ 15.9 _ --3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 11.1 __ 0.9 mm
DOCARCH ____________ 6.4 _ 17.3 _ --2.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 11.3 __ 2.3 mm
Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 16.8 _ --6.8 _ 140 _ 082 ____ 7.8 __ 4.5mm
MrSkinner ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ --4.8 _ 118 _ 088 ___ 10.8 __ 1.4 mm

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to March 2017


rank/
__ FORECASTER ____ JAN _ FEB _ MAR ___ TOTAL

01 pauldry __________ 74 __ 66 __ 62 _____ 202
t02 Lumi ____________57 __ 72 __ 72 _____ 201
t02 mickger844posts __ 74 __ 54 __ 73 _____ 201

04 Con Sensus _______59 __ 66 __ 74 _____ 199

04 John mac ________ 58 __ 59 __ 76 _____ 193
05 Kindred Spirit _____ 54 __ 78 __ 55 _____ 187
06 DOCARCH ________ 47 __ 73 __ 65 _____ 185
07 200motels ________64 __ 51 __ 69 _____ 184
08 Rikand ___________54 __ 63 __ 66 _____ 183
t09 Tae laidir ________ 68 __ 57 __ 56 _____ 181
t09 sryanbruen _______43 __ 76 __ 62 _____ 181
t11 waterways _______ 49 __ 58 __ 67 _____ 174
t11 M.T. Cranium _____53 __ 46 __ 75 _____ 174

13 NormaL __________43 __ 68 __ 61 _____ 172

13 Bsal ____________ 49 __ 58 __ 60 _____ 167
14 Rameire _________ 57 __ 56 __ 52 _____ 165
15 Dasa29 __________55 __ 49 __ 59 _____ 163
16 Jpmarn __________70 __ 70 __ 22 _____ 162
17 MrSkinner ________50 __ 66 __ 41 _____ 157
18 sunflower3 _______ 46 __ 48 __ 62 _____ 156
19 Joe Public ________ 36 __ 57 __ 54 _____ 147
20 JCX BXC _________ --- __ 60 __ 63 _____ 123
21 Dacogawa ________46 __ 62 __ --- _____ 108

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So, the scoring is quite tight near the top of the table. I spotted a minor error in the additions from the last table so there may be some edit required of the annual table in the February thread and the associated winter seasonal scoring.