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March 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 26-02-2017 9:38am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during March. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature at Dublin (A) on the 17th, and the rainfall in mm. -- 5 points for the temperature, 5 for the rainfall and 2, 1 point superbonus points available.

    Enter by the deadline of 0300h Wednesday 1st of March, after which penalties run at 1 point every 3h or portion late to 1800h 2nd (at this point the penalty stands at 15 points) then 1 point per hour after that.

    Good luck!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 7.9 _ 16.0_ -3.0 _ 140_ 95_ 13.0c, 5mm

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 7.0 _ 17.0_ -2.0 _ 110_ 100_ 11.0c, 3mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels ______________ 7.8__ 17.8__-2.4___111___90___16.5 0mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 7.1 _ 15.0_ -3.5 _ 110_ 90_ 12.0c, 10mm


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH __________ 6.4 _ 17.3_ -2.7 _ 108_ 95_ 11.3c, 2.3mm


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  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 7.5 _ 16.9 _ -2.0 _ 135 _ 91 _ 10.6c, 1.0mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Ill Try again


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry__________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _ -3.7_ 121_ 90 _ 10.3c, 1.8mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public__________ 6.6 _ 15.9 _ -3.9_ 99_ 99 _ 11.1°C, .9mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __________ 7.4 _ 17.0_ -2.0 _ 118_ 90_ 12.5c, 0mm


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 7.3 _ 17.0_ -3.4 _ 119_ 91_ 12.0c, 0mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit _______ 7.0 ___ 17.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 11.0 ___4mm


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi _______ 7.1 ___ 17.3 ___ -3.3 ___ 107 ___ 90 ___ 12.0 ___ 2.5mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCX BXC _________ 7.3 _ 18.5_ -2.3 _ 110_ 75_ 15.5c, 0mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner...5.8.....15.8°......-4.8°.....118%......88%.....10.8°


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways __________ 7.6 _ 18.1_ -3.0 _ 150 _ 87 _ 13.0, 0.0mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn......5.8.....16.8°......-6.8°.....140%......82%.....7.8° ...4.5mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,567 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 7.5 ___ 18.0 ___ -4.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 13.0c _ 0.1mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _______ 7.4 __ 19.8 _ -4.2 _ 120 _ 105 __ 13.3 and 2.5 mm (17th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _______ 6.9 __ 18.8 _ -3.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 15.3 and 1.5 mm


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,765 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ___ 7.1 ___ 17.0 ___ -4.1 ___ 88 ___ 101 ___ 9.0c _ 0.1mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts, March 2017


    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Temp,prec 17th Dub

    sryanbruen ___________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ --3.0 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 13.0 __ 5.0 mm
    200motels ____________7.8 _ 17.8 _ --2.4 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 16.5 __ 0.0 mm
    waterways ____________7.6 _ 18.1 _ --3.0 _ 150 _ 087 ___ 13.0 __ 0.0 mm
    Rikand _______________7.5 _ 18.0 _ --4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 13.0 __ 0.1 mm
    Tae laidir _____________7.5 _ 16.9 _ --2.0 _ 135 _ 091 ___ 10.6 __ 1.0 mm
    M.T. Cranium _________ 7.4 _ 19.8 _ --4.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 13.3 __ 2.5 mm
    Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 118 _ 090 ___ 12.5 __ 0.0 mm
    JCX BXC _____________ 7.3 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 110 _ 075 ___ 15.5 __ 0.0 mm
    mickger844posts ______ 7.3 _ 17.0 _ --3.4 _ 119 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 0.0 mm
    Lumi ________________ 7.1 _ 17.3 _ --3.3 _ 107 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __ 2.5 mm

    Con Sensus ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ --3.3 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 12.0 __ 1.4 mm

    Rameire ____ (-3) _____ 7.1 _ 17.0 _ --4.1 _ 088 _ 101 ____ 9.0 __ 0.1 mm
    Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 15.0 _ --3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 12.0 __10.0 mm
    Bsal _________________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 3.0 mm
    Kindred Spirit _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0 __ 4.0 mm
    john mac ___ (-2) ______6.9 _ 18.8 _ --3.4 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 15.3 __ 1.5 mm
    Pauldry_______________6.9 _ 16.5 _ --3.7 _ 121 _ 090 ___ 10.3 __ 1.8 mm

    NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.5 __ 1.7 mm

    Joe Public_____________6.6 _ 15.9 _ --3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 11.1 __ 0.9 mm
    DOCARCH ____________ 6.4 _ 17.3 _ --2.7 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 11.3 __ 2.3 mm
    Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 16.8 _ --6.8 _ 140 _ 082 ____ 7.8 __ 4.5mm
    MrSkinner ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ --4.8 _ 118 _ 088 ___ 10.8 __ 1.4 mm

    _____________________________________________________________

    So, the consensus seems to be a rather mild, cloudy March with a little extra rainfall, but there's quite a spread on temperature.

    If rainfall is greater than 3.5 mm, zero rain will score one point and if greater than 10 mm despite the number of guesses it will score zero and the two lowest measurables will score 1. Anyway, it will be scored in the fairest way considering the range of possible outcomes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Not easy to predict the March weather
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3ljUQz9HoI


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT is 5.3 C, which is 1.0 deg below average for the period.

    PRC is 244% of normal.

    SUN is 60% of normal.

    MAX is today's high of (edit -- was 14.0 at OP and PP), and MIN that I noticed anyway is --1.1 C set yesterday at Markree. Neither of these will likely last too long.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    Moore Park had 16.1 yesterday .


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Cork Airport basked in 16.3 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the second week ...

    IMT at 7.6 C with the second week very warm (9.9 which was 3.1 above average).

    PRC now at 138% of normal as a rather dry week (32% of normal) almost compensated for the wet start.

    SUN also compensated for the dull start with the average now 90% of normal with the week at 129.5%, held back a bit by Valentia being below normal -- best sunshine was in the north at stations we don't utilize (200% at Malin Head and 189% at Knock).

    Max and min appear to be 16.3 and --1.1 not including today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Phoenix Park reached 17.1 at the end of this warm period.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Dublin Airport recorded max of 11.3 and 1.9 mm rain.
    Zero sunshine.
    Pretty NormaL.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Okay, so as reported above, the bonus answers are 11.3 C and 1.9 mm. The same amount of rain was reported at Casement and Phoenix Park and similar max temps.

    Under the rules, five points for each element. With 20 entrants, that means groups of four (not giving out any zero points this time). Superbonus is available, if you qualify with five points in each category, you receive 2 added points, either combination of five and four will net you the one superbonus point. So let's see how the points are distributed. (When there are ties, it affects the numbers getting the next lowest level of points. An example you'll note five are tied for 4 points in temperature which means that only three are in line for three points. But three were tied with the third qualifying value so that bumped out a total of two from two points.) NormaL and Con Sensus do not count in terms of assigning numbers of forecasters. I thought it would be most fair to give three points to the zero rainfall crowd. That exhausted two points for rainfall but as there were significant differences in the higher estimates, I split the last cohort into pairs.

    TEMPERATURE

    5 points -- DOCARCH (11.3, 0.0 error), Joe Public (11.1, 0.2), NormaL (11.5, 0.2), Bsal and Kindred Spirit (11.0, 0.3).

    4 points -- Mr Skinner (10.8, 0.5), Tae laidir 10.6 (0.7), Mickger844posts, Lumi and Dasa29 all 12.0 (0.7), also Con Sensus 12.0 (0.7).

    3 points -- Pauldry (10.3, 1.0), sunflower3 (12.5, 1.2), sryanbruen, Rikand and waterways (13.0, 1.7).

    2 points -- MTC (13.3, 2.0) and Rameire (9.0, 2.3).

    1 point -- Jpmarn (7.8), John mac (15.3), JCX BXC (15.5), 200motels (16.5)


    RAINFALL

    5 pts -- Pauldry (1.8, 0.1 error), NormaL (1.7, 0.2), John mac (1.5, 0.4), DOCARCH (2.3, 0.4), Con Sensus (1.4, 0.5), MrSkinner (1.4, 0.5)

    4 pts -- MTC and Lumi (2.5, 0.6), Tae laidir (1.0, 0.9), Joe Public (0.9, 1.0)

    3 pts -- Bsal (3.0, 1.1), Rikand and rameire (0.1, 1.8). and all five with zero mm (200motels, waterways, mickger844points, JCX BXC, sunflower3).

    2 pts -- Kindred spirit (4.0), Jpmarn (4.5)

    1 pt -- Sryanbruen 5.0 and Dasa29 with 10.0.

    _________________

    superbonus of 2 for DOCARCH

    superbonus of 1 for Mr Skinner and Joe Public


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