The Thistlecrack/Gold Cup thread.

6/4 that he turns up never mind win is what Id be after :pac:

TanFlash

Ye'd love to be holding that ticket on Gold Cup morning

jimjamcos

TanFlash wrote:

Ye'd love to be holding that ticket on Gold Cup morning

You'll definitely get evens on the day. Not a doubt.

It'd be crazy to take 6/4 now, two and half months before event, rather than evens on day when you'll know all the variables.

TanFlash

Race might cut up, he could go off 1/2, what was shortest price fav in recent times by the way?

jimjamcos

TanFlash wrote:

Race might cut up, he could go off 1/2, what was shortest price fav in recent times by the way?

It'd have to be a similar line-up to King George of 4/5 runners for him to go off odds-on.

The fact that below horses he's never faced before may turn up will give bookies the balls to go evens or odds against.

Native River
Djakadam
Conegree
Don Cossack
Valseur Lido or Outlander

The fact there's likely to be 3/4 animals he's never faced before, I'd be certain there'll be evens about.

klairondavis

TanFlash wrote: »

Race might cut up, he could go off 1/2, what was shortest price fav in recent times by the way?

Best Mate was 8/11 for his third Gold Cup.

Kauto Star was 10/11 the year Denman beat him and 8/11 the year Imperial Commander won.

Shemale

I can't see past him but won't be backing until the day, money on antepost is crazy, have been burned by ante post too much so don't do it anymore.

I just can't have the Cue Card is gone at the game view that some people hold, he absolutely buried the field in the Betfair. Cue Card has in the past sulked / underperformed when he isn't getting his own way in front and even when he went to join Thistlecrack, the freak would not let Cue Card head him, he seemed to run a bit flat at the business end this year too but even if he ran his best he wasn't winning.

I read in the King George thread that Coneygree is being written off by some as a no hoper for the Gold Cup which is very harsh, he gave a mighty account of himself in the Betfair and for me it looked more like tiredness in the last 1/2 mile which is to be expected after being off the track for so long, even at the end of the race coming to the last Johnson saw how far clear they were and went handy on him while Brennan was letting Cue Card roll ahead so the 12L looks worse on paper than it was.

I really don't know what to make of the Irish lot, I am not sure any of them would finish ahead of Tizzards two and Coneygree (assuming it was lack of fitness the last day).

Native River is a lovely animal and should be sent into the four miler as a prep for the Grand National.

Conas

If Thistlecrack shows up at the Gold Cup against the likes of Cue Card, Don Cossack, Djakadam, he'll win.

I think the only horse that could beat him, and has beaten him before is Killultagh Vic, who I think has the stuff to win a Gold cup. His last win at Leopardstown when he came back from practically falling at the last was pure epic. But since he's been so long out, it's hard to know what he'll be like when he's back.
Thistlecrack is a quality horse, but I'd be a little more reserved than others, and wouldn't have him as odds on for the Gold Cup.

An epic clash would be if he was the meet Douvan, but that's unlikey to happy until the 2017 King George at the earliest. But I think both horses are in a different class to what's around at the moment.

TanFlash

Native River RSA?

Ben Gadot

Conas wrote: »

If Thistlecrack shows up at the Gold Cup against the likes of Cue Card, Don Cossack, Djakadam, he'll win.

I think the only horse that could beat him, and has beaten him before is Killultagh Vic, who I think has the stuff to win a Gold cup. His last win at Leopardstown when he came back from practically falling at the last was pure epic. But since he's been so long out, it's hard to know what he'll be like when he's back.
Thistlecrack is a quality horse, but I'd be a little more reserved than others, and wouldn't have him as odds on for the Gold Cup.

An epic clash would be if he was the meet Douvan, but that's unlikey to happy until the 2017 King George at the earliest. But I think both horses are in a different class to what's around at the moment.

You dismiss a horse that won the Gold Cup last year because I can only assume you question his fitness...yet tip up a horse with no such form with also a lack of fitness.

Don Cossack...forever the horse that will be disrespected by sore pockets.

Conas

Ben Gadot wrote: »

You dismiss a horse that won the Gold Cup last year because I can only assume you question his fitness...yet tip up a horse with no such form with also a lack of fitness.

Don Cossack...forever the horse that will be disrespected by sore pockets.

I never had a sore pocket because of Don Cossack, because I never backed him.
Would I rate him ahead of Thistlecrack? Absolutely not.
Yes he may have won last year, against an average field of runners in the Gold Cup. But had Cue Card not fallen, I think he would have won. All he had to beat was Djakadam, who's only good for staying, and nothing more.

But if Don Cossack runs in this years Gold Cup he will not beat Thistlecrack, Native River, or Cue Card, because he's a lazy runner. If you are a punter who likes to lay horses. Don Cossack is my tip for 'lay of the year'. He will NOT defend his crown this year, his crown is gone, gone, gone!!!!

Meath Centre Forward

Killultagh Vic - 2 chase starts and not seen in almost a year. No chance he will turn up in the Gold Cup.

The dangers to Thistlecrack that are left standing are probably owned by Michael O'Leary. Don Cossack if he comes back from injury (massive ask in my opinion) and Outlander who appeared to relish the step up in trip the last day.

Djakadam is a hard horse to weigh up. I'd never rule him out altogether but every time he runs the case for him winning becomes harder to make.

madmoose

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

Killultagh Vic - 2 chase starts and not seen in almost a year. No chance he will turn up in the Gold Cup.

The dangers to Thistlecrack that are left standing are probably owned by Michael O'Leary. Don Cossack if he comes back from injury (massive ask in my opinion) and Outlander who appeared to relish the step up in trip the last day.

Djakadam is a hard horse to weigh up. I'd never rule him out altogether but every time he runs the case for him winning becomes harder to make.

That Outlander will probably flop next time, not good enough for me.

Meath Centre Forward

madmoose wrote: »

That Outlander will probably flop next time, not good enough for me.

He's flopped the two times he's been to England but apart from that, he's been fairly consistent. That was only his 3rd run over three miles and Elliott might squeeze another few pounds out of him - I'd have him down as an improver capable of causing a shock in the Gold Cup.

Faugheen

Conas wrote: »

I never had a sore pocket because of Don Cossack, because I never backed him.
Would I rate him ahead of Thistlecrack? Absolutely not.
Yes he may have won last year, against an average field of runners in the Gold Cup. But had Cue Card not fallen, I think he would have won. All he had to beat was Djakadam, who's only good for staying, and nothing more.

But if Don Cossack runs in this years Gold Cup he will not beat Thistlecrack, Native River, or Cue Card, because he's a lazy runner. If you are a punter who likes to lay horses. Don Cossack is my tip for 'lay of the year'. He will NOT defend his crown this year, his crown is gone, gone, gone!!!!

Ah now, Don Cossack was cruising before Cue Card fell. You could make the same argument about last years KG that DC would have demolished both CC and Vautour.

A fit and healthy Don Cossack would definitely put it up to Thistlecrack.

yaboya1

Thistlecrack will go off 1/2??

Hahaha. Seriously? It's January 1st, not April 1st!

Me_Grapes

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I cannot think of anything the horse has done to suggest he is a match for Thistlecrack never mind come back from injury. He should be about 40/1 to run in the gold cup

He beat him. That would provide some sort of evidence to the case that he was a match for Thistlecrack. Call it poor tactics call it what you will, the fact is he as there at the business end of the race, and saw off the beast. A large field of competitive types is something Thistlecrack will have to overcome.

Talking about how much he's improved is irrelevant to what I said, that based on everything that has been seen he is a match, yes Crack had improved, but who's to say Vic hasn't either, injuries notwithstanding.

I agree, vertually no chance we'll see Killultagh Vic take his chance in the Gold Cup this year, but the rematch is something I'd like to see in the future. I'd love to see Douvan v Thistlecrack as well, but I really doubt we'll ever get to see them race.

Copper_pipe

Michael O'Leary says that Valseur Lido and Outlander are his best Gold Cup chances.

He says that Don Cossack 'faces a long road back'.


Will be in tomorrow's racing post

posturingpat

I spoke with Gordon briefly over the weekend and he says he's happier now than he has been at any stage with DC so I'd pay little heed to O Learys theyre fond of lying to the press. Remember the Novice chasers they declared for the different races about a week before Cheltenham only to change things completely about 2 days later when the decs came out.

jimjamcos

posturingpat wrote:

I spoke with Gordon briefly over the weekend and he says he's happier now than he has been at any stage with DC so I'd pay little heed to O Learys theyre fond of lying to the press. Remember the Novice chasers they declared for the different races about a week before Cheltenham only to change things completely about 2 days later when the decs came out.

Hardly know what the story is with Blow By Blow?

posturingpat

jimjamcos wrote: »

Hardly know what the story is with Blow By Blow?

Not a clue. Literally spoke to him for about a minute and just asked about the Don and he was definitely not putting me off. Ive been contemplating backing him since for the big one.

Harry Angstrom

Elliott seems to be an eternal optimist, O'Leary seems to be more of a pessimist. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

BumperD

posturingpat wrote: »

I spoke with Gordon briefly over the weekend and he says he's happier now than he has been at any stage with DC so I'd pay little heed to O Learys theyre fond of lying to the press. Remember the Novice chasers they declared for the different races about a week before Cheltenham only to change things completely about 2 days later when the decs came out.

Very Wood. I had him at 50/1 for RSA. Didn't get a run for my money but he ran badly in the 4 m so I felt a little better

posturingpat

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Elliott seems to be an eternal optimist, O'Leary seems to be more of a pessimist. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Yeah you may well have summed it up here.

Shemale

I can't believe some of the posts here, Killultagh Vic, Outlander and Don Cossack are a match for Thistlecrack, crazy talk.

The two biggest dangers to Thislecrack if he lines up are his jockey and the fences, I would not be surprised to see him win by 10L or more.

posturingpat

Shemale wrote: »

I can't believe some of the posts here, Killultagh Vic, Outlander and Don Cossack are a match for Thistlecrack, crazy talk.

The two biggest dangers to Thislecrack if he lines up are his jockey and the fences, I would not be surprised to see him win by 10L or more.

Hold on here a minute!
Now I'm a huge fan of Thistlecrack and I was one of the ones on here last year saying load up the barrels and lump on him, I also said how his transition to fences had been a success when others were still questioning him but this hyperbole is getting out of hand.
What is ludicrous about people suggesting a Gold cup winner that has beaten Cue card by big distances on a number of occasions and has 5 Grade 1 chases in open Company under his belt could give Thistlecrack a race if he's back to himself?

Gringo180

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpii3-e-QnE

DC absolutely pulverised Cue Card here. Nothing crazy saying he could beat Thistlecrack. Id be very war yof the extra 2 and a half furlongs for Thistlecrack, he is a bit over exhuberant for a staying chaser for my liking. He may get away with it over fences on a flat track like Kempton but Cheltenham is a diff ball game altogether.

madmoose

Sadly don't think Don Cossack will make it back and not to the form that he was seeing as it is a career threatening injury. I know vibes have been better but just a feeling i have.

Ben Gadot

Shemale wrote: »

I can't believe some of the posts here, Killultagh Vic, Outlander and Don Cossack are a match for Thistlecrack, crazy talk.

The two biggest dangers to Thislecrack if he lines up are his jockey and the fences, I would not be surprised to see him win by 10L or more.

Don Cossack has actually won a gold cup so lack of fitness/injury or not, he deserves more respect than being lobbed in with two horses that haven't the same credentials.

It was more or less the same on here anyway last year in regards to dismissing him so I'm happy to sit back and let things unfold again.

Shemale

Shemale wrote: »

I can't believe some of the posts here, Killultagh Vic, Outlander and Don Cossack are a match for Thistlecrack, crazy talk.

The two biggest dangers to Thislecrack if he lines up are his jockey and the fences, I would not be surprised to see him win by 10L or more.

I'm a big fan of Thistlecrack but it is foolish to dismiss the rest. I don't believe the Lexus was a weak race, it featured last year's gc 2nd and 3rd and a multiple g1 chase winner in valseur lido. Certainly a better field than Thistlecrack beat at Kempton imho. I think this year's Cue Card was hugely flattered by the betfair in which he beat nothing other than coneygree who can't be considered any sort of benchmark at present, wonderful though he is on his day.

Gold Cup doesn't really suit flashy horses like Thistlecrack either, albeit he looks the most likely winner at the moment and has the Cheltenham form. But if DC comes back to his best he could not be ruled out, and nor can outlander if he keeps improving. He saw the three miles out impressively imho.