The Thistlecrack/Gold Cup thread.

tryfix

I'm starting this thread because there's a lot of good banter/positions taken on Thistlecrack in the December 26th and King George threads that should be kept in one place. Also Thistlecrack's short price is making a great ante-post market for the Gold Cup for those of us who think his price is way too short for the race.

At the moment Thistlecrack is odds on with his stablemate Native River next best at 8/1. It must be nearly odds on alone that Thistlecrack will get to the race and compete without falling before the business of whether he's the best horse on the day starts.

On the negative side, no winner in modern times of the Stayers Hurdle has ever won the Gold Cup AFAIK.

King George winners tend to go off at prices that are way too short in the Gold Cup. The mighty Kauto Star couldn't do the double on his first try ( correction he did do it ) , neither could Desert Orchid, Barton Bank, One Man, The Fellow etc.


Many of those horse were suspect stayers or not that well suited to Cheltenham. Thistlecrack has Cheltenham form in the bag and is more in the Long Run/Kicking King mode, two horse who successfully did the King George-Gold Cup double at the first time of asking.

Also in his favour is the recent Gold Cup win by Coneygree which showed that novices could win the Gold Cup. His breeding says the Gold Cup trip will be no problem, but actually getting up the hill at the end of the Gold Cup is no sure thing for a horse who likes to dominate his races. I can remember some horses like Stayers Hurdle winner Dorans Pride who didn't get home too well in the Gold Cup.

Thistlecrack ticks enough boxes to say he should win, but experience of seeing good things beaten in the Gold Cup says it's well worth opposing him.

Any suggestions of an alternative Gold Cup horse?

madmoose

I really hope Thistlecrack wins but as a live outsider i will go for Minella Rocco.

His form ties in with N River in that he won the Nh Chase last season and that race has worked out well with Noble Endev the most recent to come from that and win a big pot. Rocco is very hit and miss i know but i'm not sure he should be 40/1 and will relish the test and attrition of the race.

HarshOstrich

Native river would give thistlecrack the fight of his life as long as Richard Johnson is on him .

tryfix

Me_Grapes wrote: »

Kauto Star did do the KG/GC double first time of asking.

You are correct, I was mistakingly taking his defeat by Denman as his first attempt.

Me_Grapes

The horse I'd like to see entered into the Gold Cup is Killultagh Vic. Hopefully injury/time off the track hasn't diminished the horses ability as based on everything that has been seen so far that horse is more than a match for Thistlecrack.

40's generally available, would get stuck in if and when the firms go NRMB

I said

If cue card sent Ryanair route it says it all about thistlecrack s gold cup chance.
If he shows up in king George form it's all over for the rest of the field.
Dom poli e/w for me after the Lexus run.Will stay all day.

tryfix

Don Cossack would be rolling up fresh as a daisy for his defence of the Gold Cup. For a horse who doesn't get much respect he has an impressive record with only a fall when favourite and a third place over an inadequate 2m5f in the Ryanair interrupting a 10 race winning spree.

longshotvalue

Just looking at it Don Poli is the clear value as he will certainly run. Conegree is just overrated and has no hope really if either Cue Card or Thistlecrack turns up.

Of the real big priced ones Irish Cavalier will run well here and 66/1 is value.

Richard Hillman

tryfix wrote: »

Don Cossack would be rolling up fresh as a daisy for his defence of the Gold Cup. For a horse who doesn't get much respect he has an impressive record with only a fall when favourite and a third place over an inadequate 2m5f in the Ryanair interrupting a 10 race winning spree.

Don't mean to be pedantic but it's 3 and half months until Cheltenham. I reckon they will all be rolling up fresh as a daisy.

Me_Grapes

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Don't mean to be pedantic but it's 3 and half months until Cheltenham. I reckon they will all be rolling up fresh as a daisy.

Well since we're being pedantic and all.......it's 2 and a half months.

tryfix

. Gold Cup Ten Year Trends
OLBG Racing Trends specialist Micko70 highlighted some key stats for the 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup. This is what he said about the last 10 winners before that race in his blog.

9/10 were aged between 7 and 9
9/10 were rated 162 or higher
8/10 finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start
6/10 had their last run before February 1st
9/10 had run at least 2 time since Nov 1st
8/10 has won a race since November 1st


Should We Avoid The Veterans?
One of the regular trends that come up for the Gold Cup each year is the seemingly poor recent record of horses aged ten and above. Cool Dawn’s 25/1 victory in 1998 was the last time a horse in that age group recorded a win.

These statistics seem to suggest that older horses are unlikely to be winning in 2017 but is that really the case?

Ten-year-old On His Own was beaten just a short-head by Lord Windermere in 2010 and Denman (twice), Kauto Star and Mon Mome were all placed in the Gold Cup when ten or older. Cue Card was ten years old in last year’s race but looked all set to be involved in the finish before taking a bad fall at the third last fence.

The reality of the actual numbers for horses aged ten or over in the last ten renewals are as follows:

• 34 horses aged 10 to 12 have run in the Gold Cup in the last ten years

• 0 have won

• 5 have been placed

• 11 failed to complete the course

• 18 completed the course outside of the places

• 10 were priced at 66/1 or above

• 6 were priced at 5/1 or shorter and recorded the following finishes: F, PU, 3, PU, 2, F

Three of the first seven in the early betting for the 2017 Gold Cup will be ten or older come March next year including last year’s winner Don Cossack. The Gold Cup winner from 2015, Coneygree, will also be ten if he can make it back after injury whilst King George and Betfair Chase winner Cue Card will be older still at eleven. However if Coneygree in particular can make it back to fitness he will almost certainly have had less races over fences than the majority of his younger opponents. Mark Bradstock’s chaser has had just five races over fences to date and a total of eleven races under Rules.

Trends can be a useful guide but it would surely be dangerous to dismiss any of this powerful trio simply on the fact of their age.

https://cheltenham.olbg.com/cheltenham-gold-cup-betting-tips/193/

WickIow Brave

Thought you were just into the flat, tryfix. Didn't have you down as fan of the plodders. Good to have your views though.

tryfix

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Thought you were just into the flat, tryfix. Didn't have you down as fan of the plodders. Good to have your views though.

Don't normally pass too much notice of the jumpers.

I've always loved the winter King George and still throw an eye on how the top jumps races turn out.

This Tizzard purple patch has me intrigued.

Huntley

Thistlecrack's winning margin flattered the others. King Georges are a much different test than a Gold Cup but incredible tough to win. Flat out from the start to the finish whereas in a Gold Cup you can free roll downhill and fill a horse up. I actually think Thistlecrack was tired in the finish the other day as he was entitled to be. Tom Scudamore made a massive move early enough and he flattened out a bit and was eased down but he won the race off the bend. He could have won by a double figure margin with a more patient ride. At Cheltenham they can load him up going downhill, kick off the turn and he'll win a street. Jumping errors and mishaps aside of course.

Don Cossack will be lucky to make the race. You need to be race ready and hard fit for a race like this which he won't be, not really a betting proposition.

Don Poli has never even hinted at being able to hit 170 let alone a Gold Cup winning figure. Lots of excuses made last year for very average performances, only does enough and that kind of thing but he's just lacking in ability. Needed to improve a stone last year, he wasn't able to then and a near certainty he won't do so this year.

The Lexus was a poor enough race, Djakadam ran below his best. Outlander will probably get 165 - 167.

Native River is an admirable sort. He's good enough for a place anyway and if there is anything to get Thistlecrack out of rhythm it is probably him.

I'd struggle to find a bet that is worthwhile in this. You are betting on one horse losing the race by aspects outside of his ability. If there is one negative it is that his jumping could be more efficient but he'll likely improve and his cruising speed makes it difficult to put him in too much trouble early doors. Djakadam will likely go off at a much shorter price than the 14/1 available now if you really wanted an each way. The only bet that would interest me would be Thistlecrack to win by 5 lengths or more on the day, should get a solid odds against on that I think he'll go off odds on.

jimjamcos

Lads Thistlecrack wins it on the snaff if healthy.

Can see it now.. Native River bowls off in front attacking every fence low and precise with the beast Thistlecrack sauntering just behind him giving them loads of air before picking it up two out and zooming clear up the hill, Native River hanging on for 2nd, the rest nowhere.

Thistlecrack wins by a fence.

TanFlash

What's the big antepost treble for Cheltenham for everyone?
E100 investment

Gringo180

I said wrote: »

If cue card sent Ryanair route it says it all about thistlecrack s gold cup chance.
If he shows up in king George form it's all over for the rest of the field.
Dom poli e/w for me after the Lexus run.Will stay all day.

Don Poli is as slow as a boat I certainly wont make the same mistake i made backing him last year he was getting pushed along right the way around id say Davie Russel lost about 2 stone after that ride. He has Grand National written all over him.

Gringo180

aidankkk wrote: »

Just looking at it Don Poli is the clear value as he will certainly run. Conegree is just overrated and has no hope really if either Cue Card or Thistlecrack turns up.

Of the real big priced ones Irish Cavalier will run well here and 66/1 is value.

Ive seen milk turn quicker than Don Poli. The ground would have to be a complete bog for him to get involved. Its a pity they dont step Douvan up in trip. Imagine a Gold Cup show down with him and Thistlecrack :O

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

I really hope Thistlecrack wins but as a live outsider i will go for Minella Rocco.

His form ties in with N River in that he won the Nh Chase last season and that race has worked out well with Noble Endev the most recent to come from that and win a big pot. Rocco is very hit and miss i know but i'm not sure he should be 40/1 and will relish the test and attrition of the race.

Ive had a small ew play on him @50's for the exact same reasoning.

I said

Gringo180 wrote: »

Don Poli is as slow as a boat I certainly wont make the same mistake i made backing him last year he was getting pushed along right the way around id say Davie Russel lost about 2 stone after that ride. He has Grand National written all over him.

I'm looking at it from the idea thistlecrack will grind the field to pieces and the poli will still be going at the end of it.

TanFlash

Remember this time last year? Faugheen was hot pot for champion hurdle, Annie was nailed on for mares, there's a massive health warning for antepost, trouble is which curveball will be thrown at us this year? Which horse will change target and surprise us all?

sonnky

Shaneshill staying over hurdles this season I presume?

Peintre Celebre

Me_Grapes wrote: »

The horse I'd like to see entered into the Gold Cup is Killultagh Vic. Hopefully injury/time off the track hasn't diminished the horses ability as based on everything that has been seen so far that horse is more than a match for Thistlecrack.

40's generally available, would get stuck in if and when the firms go NRMB

I cannot think of anything the horse has done to suggest he is a match for Thistlecrack never mind come back from injury. He should be about 40/1 to run in the gold cup

madmoose

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Me_Grapes wrote: »

The horse I'd like to see entered into the Gold Cup is Killultagh Vic. Hopefully injury/time off the track hasn't diminished the horses ability as based on everything that has been seen so far that horse is more than a match for Thistlecrack.

40's generally available, would get stuck in if and when the firms go NRMB

I cannot think of anything the horse has done to suggest he is a match for Thistlecrack never mind come back from injury. He should be about 40/1 to run in the gold cup

I know what you mean injury wise but Vic is the only horse to beat Crack over 3miles even if it was close at Punchestown.

Glenjamin360

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I cannot think of anything the horse has done to suggest he is a match for Thistlecrack never mind come back from injury. He should be about 40/1 to run in the gold cup

other then beat him

Peintre Celebre

yeah cos he hasn't improved since. How far would Vic have been beaten in the king George

Glenjamin360

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

yeah cos he hasn't improved since. How far would Vic have been beaten in the king George

whos to say if he would be beaten at all

Peintre Celebre

I'd say he'd have demolished him alright

Glenjamin360

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I'd say he'd have demolished him alright

considering he couldnt demolish conti or tea for two im quite confident he wouldnt

jimjamcos

Thistlecrack was very unlucky that day Killultagh Vic beat him. Was given a bad ride, getting caught against inside rail and absolutely flew home, closing all the time.

Saying that, however, Killultagh Vic himself is a serious horse imo and I'd back him to finish 2nd to the beast in any race over 3m or under. Don't think KV wants an extended trip but he looks a proper Gr 1 horse if coming back healthy. I'd lump on him for Ryanair if turning up on day.

byronbay2

PP offering 6/4 Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup today as part of their "Christmas Sale". Best price 5/4 anywhere else. €100 max bet but you can go to several shops if you want. Personally, if I was backing a 6/4 shot for Cheltenham now, it would be Altior for The Arkle (think he is a certainty if he turns up) but antepost betting not for me.

6/4 that he turns up never mind win is what Id be after :pac:

TanFlash

Ye'd love to be holding that ticket on Gold Cup morning

jimjamcos

TanFlash wrote:

Ye'd love to be holding that ticket on Gold Cup morning

You'll definitely get evens on the day. Not a doubt.

It'd be crazy to take 6/4 now, two and half months before event, rather than evens on day when you'll know all the variables.

TanFlash

Race might cut up, he could go off 1/2, what was shortest price fav in recent times by the way?

jimjamcos

TanFlash wrote:

Race might cut up, he could go off 1/2, what was shortest price fav in recent times by the way?

It'd have to be a similar line-up to King George of 4/5 runners for him to go off odds-on.

The fact that below horses he's never faced before may turn up will give bookies the balls to go evens or odds against.

Native River
Djakadam
Conegree
Don Cossack
Valseur Lido or Outlander

The fact there's likely to be 3/4 animals he's never faced before, I'd be certain there'll be evens about.

klairondavis

TanFlash wrote: »

Race might cut up, he could go off 1/2, what was shortest price fav in recent times by the way?

Best Mate was 8/11 for his third Gold Cup.

Kauto Star was 10/11 the year Denman beat him and 8/11 the year Imperial Commander won.

Shemale

I can't see past him but won't be backing until the day, money on antepost is crazy, have been burned by ante post too much so don't do it anymore.

I just can't have the Cue Card is gone at the game view that some people hold, he absolutely buried the field in the Betfair. Cue Card has in the past sulked / underperformed when he isn't getting his own way in front and even when he went to join Thistlecrack, the freak would not let Cue Card head him, he seemed to run a bit flat at the business end this year too but even if he ran his best he wasn't winning.

I read in the King George thread that Coneygree is being written off by some as a no hoper for the Gold Cup which is very harsh, he gave a mighty account of himself in the Betfair and for me it looked more like tiredness in the last 1/2 mile which is to be expected after being off the track for so long, even at the end of the race coming to the last Johnson saw how far clear they were and went handy on him while Brennan was letting Cue Card roll ahead so the 12L looks worse on paper than it was.

I really don't know what to make of the Irish lot, I am not sure any of them would finish ahead of Tizzards two and Coneygree (assuming it was lack of fitness the last day).

Native River is a lovely animal and should be sent into the four miler as a prep for the Grand National.

Conas

If Thistlecrack shows up at the Gold Cup against the likes of Cue Card, Don Cossack, Djakadam, he'll win.

I think the only horse that could beat him, and has beaten him before is Killultagh Vic, who I think has the stuff to win a Gold cup. His last win at Leopardstown when he came back from practically falling at the last was pure epic. But since he's been so long out, it's hard to know what he'll be like when he's back.
Thistlecrack is a quality horse, but I'd be a little more reserved than others, and wouldn't have him as odds on for the Gold Cup.

An epic clash would be if he was the meet Douvan, but that's unlikey to happy until the 2017 King George at the earliest. But I think both horses are in a different class to what's around at the moment.

TanFlash

Native River RSA?

Ben Gadot

Conas wrote: »

If Thistlecrack shows up at the Gold Cup against the likes of Cue Card, Don Cossack, Djakadam, he'll win.

I think the only horse that could beat him, and has beaten him before is Killultagh Vic, who I think has the stuff to win a Gold cup. His last win at Leopardstown when he came back from practically falling at the last was pure epic. But since he's been so long out, it's hard to know what he'll be like when he's back.
Thistlecrack is a quality horse, but I'd be a little more reserved than others, and wouldn't have him as odds on for the Gold Cup.

An epic clash would be if he was the meet Douvan, but that's unlikey to happy until the 2017 King George at the earliest. But I think both horses are in a different class to what's around at the moment.

You dismiss a horse that won the Gold Cup last year because I can only assume you question his fitness...yet tip up a horse with no such form with also a lack of fitness.

Don Cossack...forever the horse that will be disrespected by sore pockets.

Conas

Ben Gadot wrote: »

You dismiss a horse that won the Gold Cup last year because I can only assume you question his fitness...yet tip up a horse with no such form with also a lack of fitness.

Don Cossack...forever the horse that will be disrespected by sore pockets.

I never had a sore pocket because of Don Cossack, because I never backed him.
Would I rate him ahead of Thistlecrack? Absolutely not.
Yes he may have won last year, against an average field of runners in the Gold Cup. But had Cue Card not fallen, I think he would have won. All he had to beat was Djakadam, who's only good for staying, and nothing more.

But if Don Cossack runs in this years Gold Cup he will not beat Thistlecrack, Native River, or Cue Card, because he's a lazy runner. If you are a punter who likes to lay horses. Don Cossack is my tip for 'lay of the year'. He will NOT defend his crown this year, his crown is gone, gone, gone!!!!

Meath Centre Forward

Killultagh Vic - 2 chase starts and not seen in almost a year. No chance he will turn up in the Gold Cup.

The dangers to Thistlecrack that are left standing are probably owned by Michael O'Leary. Don Cossack if he comes back from injury (massive ask in my opinion) and Outlander who appeared to relish the step up in trip the last day.

Djakadam is a hard horse to weigh up. I'd never rule him out altogether but every time he runs the case for him winning becomes harder to make.

madmoose

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

Killultagh Vic - 2 chase starts and not seen in almost a year. No chance he will turn up in the Gold Cup.

The dangers to Thistlecrack that are left standing are probably owned by Michael O'Leary. Don Cossack if he comes back from injury (massive ask in my opinion) and Outlander who appeared to relish the step up in trip the last day.

Djakadam is a hard horse to weigh up. I'd never rule him out altogether but every time he runs the case for him winning becomes harder to make.

That Outlander will probably flop next time, not good enough for me.

Meath Centre Forward

madmoose wrote: »

That Outlander will probably flop next time, not good enough for me.

He's flopped the two times he's been to England but apart from that, he's been fairly consistent. That was only his 3rd run over three miles and Elliott might squeeze another few pounds out of him - I'd have him down as an improver capable of causing a shock in the Gold Cup.

Faugheen

Conas wrote: »

I never had a sore pocket because of Don Cossack, because I never backed him.
Would I rate him ahead of Thistlecrack? Absolutely not.
Yes he may have won last year, against an average field of runners in the Gold Cup. But had Cue Card not fallen, I think he would have won. All he had to beat was Djakadam, who's only good for staying, and nothing more.

But if Don Cossack runs in this years Gold Cup he will not beat Thistlecrack, Native River, or Cue Card, because he's a lazy runner. If you are a punter who likes to lay horses. Don Cossack is my tip for 'lay of the year'. He will NOT defend his crown this year, his crown is gone, gone, gone!!!!

Ah now, Don Cossack was cruising before Cue Card fell. You could make the same argument about last years KG that DC would have demolished both CC and Vautour.

A fit and healthy Don Cossack would definitely put it up to Thistlecrack.

yaboya1

Thistlecrack will go off 1/2??

Hahaha. Seriously? It's January 1st, not April 1st!

Me_Grapes

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I cannot think of anything the horse has done to suggest he is a match for Thistlecrack never mind come back from injury. He should be about 40/1 to run in the gold cup

He beat him. That would provide some sort of evidence to the case that he was a match for Thistlecrack. Call it poor tactics call it what you will, the fact is he as there at the business end of the race, and saw off the beast. A large field of competitive types is something Thistlecrack will have to overcome.

Talking about how much he's improved is irrelevant to what I said, that based on everything that has been seen he is a match, yes Crack had improved, but who's to say Vic hasn't either, injuries notwithstanding.

I agree, vertually no chance we'll see Killultagh Vic take his chance in the Gold Cup this year, but the rematch is something I'd like to see in the future. I'd love to see Douvan v Thistlecrack as well, but I really doubt we'll ever get to see them race.

Copper_pipe

Michael O'Leary says that Valseur Lido and Outlander are his best Gold Cup chances.

He says that Don Cossack 'faces a long road back'.


Will be in tomorrow's racing post

posturingpat

I spoke with Gordon briefly over the weekend and he says he's happier now than he has been at any stage with DC so I'd pay little heed to O Learys theyre fond of lying to the press. Remember the Novice chasers they declared for the different races about a week before Cheltenham only to change things completely about 2 days later when the decs came out.

jimjamcos

posturingpat wrote:

I spoke with Gordon briefly over the weekend and he says he's happier now than he has been at any stage with DC so I'd pay little heed to O Learys theyre fond of lying to the press. Remember the Novice chasers they declared for the different races about a week before Cheltenham only to change things completely about 2 days later when the decs came out.

Hardly know what the story is with Blow By Blow?