Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

A Little Pony

Sam Russell wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

This is why it is currently a non starter. I have seen no evidence in any polling whatsoever that the people of Northern Ireland want a United Ireland. People make big predictions about the future of the UK but I could similarly make predictions about the European Union and the Euro currency.
I think some people need to just calm down and take a deep breath. I don't follow ROI politics closely, what is the mood regarding the two states? Do the Southern people want a United Ireland? Are they willing to take on the 1.8 million people, higher taxes and community that would have a major say in Dail elections and because of the Fine Gael lean to the right, the DUP could end up running the country with Fine Gael in a coalition government implementing big conservative policies.

People don't seem to think these things through. The state would be including a new political player on the scene which is ideologically very different from many of the parties in the south. Any time I watch the Irish election debates, the appetite from the Irish parties seems non existent for it.

The question of a United Ireland does not arise because most people know the answer would be NO.

It would be NO if Ireland would have tp pay the £10 billion that NI gets as a net subsidy from the UK.

It would be NO if the current crop of NI politicians continued in the ways of sectarian bitterness towards each other - and us.

It would be NO because people cannot see the changes in attitude required coming about.

However, Brexit might focus minds.  Remember, the troubles went on for 30 years with no end in sight, but now are a distant memory and the current NI Assembly has been operating for 10 years with SF and DUP working together.  Who would have thought it possible?

If Brexit results in massive reductions in the subsidy for NI, perhaps minds will change.  Will the UK continue to pay the farmers their EU grants and pay the regional funds and other EU payments together with their own payments to NI?  We shall see.

Unless they want empty shop shelves and people going hungry..
DUP and Sinn Fein working together can be used in the most loose way as possible. More like an abusive relationship that can't be split up.

A Little Pony

Consonata wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

I think some people need to just calm down and take a deep breath. I don't follow ROI politics closely, what is the mood regarding the two states? Do the Southern people want a United Ireland? Are they willing to take on the 1.8 million people, higher taxes and community that would have a major say in Dail elections and because of the Fine Gael lean to the right, the DUP could end up running the country with Fine Gael in a coalition government implementing big conservative policies.

The DUP is a white elephant. Fine Gael is nowhere near as right wing as the DUP is. It's barely center right.

Of course but what would stop them coming together to form a government if needed? Politicians only care about power.

Consonata

A Little Pony wrote: »

Of course but what would stop them coming together to form a government if needed? Politicians only care about power.

Nothing, but FG realigning to suit Unionists would result in them losing power. Its far far far more likely that the DUP will become more moderate in order to get into power, as they would be a minority in that situation.

blanch152

Consonata wrote: »

Nothing, but FG realigning to suit Unionists would result in them losing power. Its far far far more likely that the DUP will become more moderate in order to get into power, as they would be a minority in that situation.

How many seats would they get I wonder?

2.13m voted in last years general election in the South.
800,000 voted in this years Assembly elections, giving a total electorate of 2.93m. DUP got 225,413 votes in the Assembly elections, giving them a 7.6% share of the vote.

The Dail would probably have to increase to around 200 seats in the event of a united Ireland. Because of the concentrated nature of their vote and the multi-seat constituencies, the DUP would be likely to gain the same amount of seats as their vote, despite the usual penalties for smaller parties, giving them 16 seats in the Dail.

A potential governing partner would need 42% of the seats, potentially achievable on 35% of the vote. When you think that FG got 46% of the seats based on 36% of the vote in 2011, it would seem that the DUP would be potential coalition partners for either FF or FG in the current situation.

Sam Russell

A Little Pony wrote: »

Of course but what would stop them coming together to form a government if needed? Politicians only care about power.

The DUP have 30% of the seats in the Assembly and FG have 30% of the seats the Dail. Having 30% of the seats would stop them alright.

FG have never had a majority on their own - nor will they.

FrancieBrady

Looks like the DUP are attempting to bring this to another election.

The DUP didn't turn up yesterday, SF told the media that they wouldn't be nominating on Monday because obviously there wasn't time left for an agreement to be reached, but it seems the media are already portraying it as SF pulling the plug.

A Little Pony

Sinn Fein did pull the plug but this is all irrelevant as I said it wouldn't get up and running again. The election was a farce and ultimately hasn't done anything. Making huge demands while having no budget is recipe for disaster.

FrancieBrady

The DUP claim they were happy in government.
That government collapsed with more than one party demanding:
That Arlene Foster step aside.
That the Irish Language Act be passed.
Recognition of gay rights
and that funding for inquiries would be available.

Arlene was going on about everybody having a mandate today yet the DUP have not budged on even one of the above knowing an executive would not be formed if they didn't.
Judge for yourself who the obstacle is.

A Little Pony

If you believe Sinn Fein will get all they want then dream on, it isn't going to happen. You have to give and take. By all accounts the DUP wanted a military covenant which was rejected I read and as a Unionist the military is important to us. We want equality please.

Jayop

The giving and taking was done prior to the signing of the St Andrews and the Good Friday Agreements which said these things would happen. Why should the DUP be allowed to renegotiate agreements they already signed up to?

Bollocks to that.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

If you believe Sinn Fein will get all they want then dream on, it isn't going to happen. You have to give and take. By all accounts the DUP wanted a military covenant which was rejected I read and as a Unionist the military is important to us. We want equality please.

Oh well, the inevitable outcome will be Westminster imposing an Irish language act, gay rights etc. Or if Westminster is feeling like trying something new it will be a London-Dublin arrangement that will do it.
That London-Dublin arrangement could come out of Brexit in return for something else we have to offer- support within the EU.

Nobody is willing to stand for the DUP deciding what is culturally important or forcing normal people to live by what the DUP believe religiously.

jm08

The Belfast telegraph did a poll on a United Ireland just after Brexit (July 2016). Over 50,000 responded.

Two questions asked:

1.Should there be a poll on the question of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic? 73% yes.

2. If there was a poll, what way would you vote.
No change:
United Ireland: 69%


http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/over-50000-take-part-in-our-united-ireland-border-poll-heres-how-they-voted-34900542.html

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

If you believe Sinn Fein will get all they want then dream on, it isn't going to happen. You have to give and take. By all accounts the DUP wanted a military covenant which was rejected I read and as a Unionist the military is important to us. We want equality please.

Oh well, the inevitable outcome will be Westminster imposing an Irish language act, gay rights etc. Or if Westminster is feeling like trying something new it will be a London-Dublin arrangement that will do it.
That London-Dublin arrangement could come out of Brexit in return for something else we have to offer- support within the EU.

Nobody is willing to stand for the DUP deciding what is culturally important or forcing normal people to live by what the DUP believe religiously.

If Westminster wills it, then so be it. Let her Majesty s government do as they must.

Jayop

jm08 wrote: »

The Belfast telegraph did a poll on a United Ireland just after Brexit (July 2016). Over 50,000 responded.

Two questions asked:

1.Should there be a poll on the question of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic? 73% yes.

2. If there was a poll, what way would you vote.
No change:
United Ireland: 69%


http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/over-50000-take-part-in-our-united-ireland-border-poll-heres-how-they-voted-34900542.html

I'm a poll skeptic but even more so those online polls. Fairly meaningless tbh.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

If Westminster wills it, then so be it. Let her Majesty s government do as they must.

And Westminster won't do a thing without consulting Dublin. Well played Arlene.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

If Westminster wills it, then so be it. Let her Majesty s government do as they must.

And Westminster won't do a thing without consulting Dublin. Well played Arlene.

They don't need permission from Dublin. Brokenshire probably will call for direct rule in a few weeks time when Sinn Fein don't get what they want.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

They don't need permission from Dublin. Brokenshire probably will call for direct rule in a few weeks time when Sinn Fein don't get what they want.

I didn't say 'permission' I said in consultation.
And the advice from Dublin will be an Irish Language Act (what does that matter to Unionists anyway only bigoted keening for their 'never a taig about the place' heyday) Gay rights to align with the South, (who cares what gets the DUP into heaven?) And funding to inquire.

As I said 'well done Arlene'.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

They don't need permission from Dublin. Brokenshire probably will call for direct rule in a few weeks time when Sinn Fein don't get what they want.

I didn't say 'permission' I said in consultation.
And the advice from Dublin will be an Irish Language Act (what does that matter to Unionists anyway only bigoted keening for their 'never a taig about the place' heyday) Gay rights to align with the South, (who cares what gets the DUP into heaven?) And funding to inquire.

As I said 'well done Arlene'.

No one has to listen. Give and take, Unionists have issues we would like looked at. Its not the Sinn Fein show even if you want it to be.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

No one has to listen. Give and take, Unionists have issues we would like looked at. Its not the Sinn Fein show even if you want it to be.

They knew the demands from a number of parties. They have agreed to none. What demands have the other parties refused?

jm08

A Little Pony wrote: »

If you believe Sinn Fein will get all they want then dream on, it isn't going to happen. You have to give and take. By all accounts the DUP wanted a military covenant which was rejected I read and as a Unionist the military is important to us. We want equality please.

I just looked up the military covenant which seems to be a strange one. Why are not military people's injuries taken care of by the military? Why is there need to have a covenant so that they get priority over everyone else in the NHS?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I didn't say 'permission' I said in consultation.
And the advice from Dublin will be an Irish Language Act (what does that matter to Unionists anyway only bigoted keening for their 'never a taig about the place' heyday) Gay rights to align with the South, (who cares what gets the DUP into heaven?) And funding to inquire.

As I said 'well done Arlene'.

A contrary view to that would be that if it happens (and I don't doubt you) that direct rule brings an Irish Language Act and same-sex marriage, doesn't that tell moderate nationalists and moderate unionists that maybe they would be better off without the likes of SF and DUP squabbling?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

A contrary view to that would be that if it happens (and I don't doubt you) that direct rule brings an Irish Language Act and same-sex marriage, doesn't that tell moderate nationalists and moderate unionists that maybe they would be better off without the likes of SF and DUP squabbling?

It is supposed to be a democracy and the people are free to tell politicians what they think at the polls. They did last time out.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is supposed to be a democracy and the people are free to tell politicians what they think at the polls. They did last time out.

Of course they are, I wasn't disputing that. I was just suggesting that a period of direct rule where the types of things you were suggesting were implemented by London that the people of Northern Ireland might learn the virtues of rejecting the extremists on both sides.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Of course they are, I wasn't disputing that. I was just suggesting that a period of direct rule where the types of things you were suggesting were implemented by London that the people of Northern Ireland might learn the virtues of rejecting the extremists on both sides.

Of course they could, it's a democracy.
They looked at who was on offer last time out and made their decision in a demonstrative and unprecedented way. What does that tell us?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of course they could, it's a democracy.
They looked at who was on offer last time out and made their decision in a demonstrative and unprecedented way. What does that tell us?

Oh yes, I agree, but context is everything. A period of direct rule changes the context, and that has dangers and opportunities for all parties.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Oh yes, I agree, but context is everything. A period of direct rule changes the context, and that has dangers and opportunities for all parties.

Of course, the people are the ultimate jury.
The electorate sent a message last time that 'some' have arrogantly ignored.
Westminster and Dublin doesn't want the headache of direct rule, I would not like to be the constituency which gets the blame. And behind closed doors, were no niceties are required, one side will get the blame and I bet it will be the same one the public blamed.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of course, the people are the ultimate jury.
The electorate sent a message last time that 'some' have arrogantly ignored.
Westminster and Dublin doesn't want the headache of direct rule, I would not like to be the constituency which gets the blame. And behind closed doors, were no niceties are required, one side will get the blame and I bet it will be the same one the public blamed.

I don't think it is as simple as that.

If you talk to unionist up north, they are blaming SF intransigence, while the nationalists are blaming DUP intransigence. A period of direct rule may well be what is required to make both of them less relevant, which would be a good thing in my opinion.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't think it is as simple as that.

If you talk to unionist up north, they are blaming SF intransigence, while the nationalists are blaming DUP intransigence. A period of direct rule may well be what is required to make both of them less relevant, which would be a good thing in my opinion.

What you should ask yourself and what Dublin and Westminster and the majority of people in the north know, there is only one party that is standing arrogantly against rights and equalities every other citizen in both jurisdictions have.

Simpler than that it cannot be made. Incredibly won game of snooker actually when you look at it.
The DUP are between a rock and a hard place now, and all they had to do was get Arlene to stand aside for a while.
I think you are fooling yourself if you think the people are equally blaming here.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What you should ask yourself and what Dublin and Westminster and the majority of people in the north know, there is only one party that is standing arrogantly against rights and equalities every other citizen in both jurisdictions have.

Simpler than that it cannot be made. Incredibly won game of snooker actually when you look at it.
The DUP are between a rock and a hard place now, and all they had to do was get Arlene to stand aside for a while.
I think you are fooling yourself if you think the people are equally blaming here.

I never said people were equally blaming, but putting yourself in the position of being a neutral and assigning blame from that perspective is not a way of understanding the North. There is no doubt that many of a unionist perspective are blaming SF - you may believe that is unfair, but that is their opinion, and they are entitled to hold it.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I never said people were equally blaming, but putting yourself in the position of being a neutral and assigning blame from that perspective is not a way of understanding the North. There is no doubt that many of a unionist perspective are blaming SF - you may believe that is unfair, but that is their opinion, and they are entitled to hold it.

Nobody, certainly not a political party is 'entitled' to an opinion based on a falsehood.

Again, look at demands, they are reasonably based on ordinary rights and equalities enshrined in all other parts of these islands.
To say there is anything other than one party blocking progress here would be a falsehood. There clearly isn't.
And Dublin and Westminster know who it is, even if they cannot say it in public.

The DUP are potentially going to force this back to an unknowable election scenario were they could very very likely be damaged more (Arlene is gone) or they could usher in a period of direct rule were Westminister in consultation with Dublin bring in the reforms despite the DUP (Arlene is gone).
There isn't a win scenario here for the DUP, they should have bitten the bullet and asked Arlene to step aside.