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MATCH THREAD: Ireland vs NZ, 19/11/16, 1730 - Who is the greatest side of all time?
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18-11-2016 11:59am#1
Russell Crowe! Peter Jackson! Blokes from Flight of the Conchords! Your boys took one hell of a beating!
So said Robbie Henshaw in the immediate aftermath of the historic Irish victory over New Zealand in Soldier Field two weeks ago. And while we can forgive Robbie his youthful over-exuberance, boards.ie/rugby was built on steely-eyed analysis, devoid of any local bias, so we need to look a bit more deeply at it.
Did they take one hell of a beating? After 110 years of trying, Ireland finally managed to get the monkey off their backs, but how?
Let’s be honest; New Zealand did not play well. The Chicago game was a huge marketing opportunity for the best-known brand in rugby and the reports are that a lot of off-field appearances may have disrupted preparations. A cobbled-together second-row was dismantled at lineout time and Aaron Smith, hitherto the best scrum-half in the world, had a bit of a shocker. This week, Smith can’t be as bad, the team will be a lot more focussed and the second-row has gone from Tuipulotu/Kaino to Whitelock/Retallick. So, do we need to panic?
No, we don’t.
Plenty of Ireland teams have gone up against worse New Zealand teams and been beaten out the gate. Plenty of Ireland teams have built up leads against New Zealand and collapsed in the third quarter. And let’s face it, when Scott Barrett ghosted past Toner to make it 33-29 with 15 minutes to go, not many of us were confident that this was going to be any different.
But it WAS different. Where previous Irish teams would have mentally caved or physically run out of gas, this team dug deep, the hits got harder and the kick, chase and tackles that led to Henshaw’s try was one of the finest moments in Irish rugby history.
So yes, New Zealand were poor, but Ireland have plenty of room for improvement too. We conceded four tries and three of those were directly the result of pretty poor Irish defence, with five or six different culprits for Andy Farrell to berate in the video review. If they can improve, so can we. We won’t score 40 points this week, but I really hope we don’t concede 29 either.
Team Changes
Joe Schmidt surprised nobody by keeping change to a minimum. The injury profile of his squad has never been better and this is probably as close to a first-choice XV as he has ever named. The temptation to bring Sean O’Brien back in was too great - which is harsh on Josh van der Flier (second-highest tackler in Chicago in only 55 minutes) – but O’Brien’s all-round game meant once he proved his fitness, he was in.
On the bench, Henderson (if fit…) will give us serious impact while Jackson will give us a steadier head if we need to close the game out. A well-rested side should be able to stick with NZ for the 80 minutes, physically at least.
Steve Hansen has resisted the urge to make huge changes, and rightly so. A side that wins 18 tests in a row doesn’t become bad overnight. In come the second rows, and also a new midfield of Fekitoa/Lienert Brown, with Israel Dagg replacing Naholo on the wing. It’s only an eighth cap for Lienert Brown, and only his sixth start, but Dagg brings a lot more experience and certainly better aerial skills and positioning than Naholo.
Crucially, like the Ireland XV, the All Blacks will be well rested. The stroll against Italy last week allowed most of the side to be rested and only Sam Cane will have started all three tests. It is also rumoured that the off-field activities were scaled back, even the mandatory visit to the Guinness Storehouse was cancelled, so they should be more focussed.
Tactical Changes
Minimal, frankly.
Ireland, for all the tactical mastery of Joe Schmidt, have a limited style of play that is heavily based on the tactical kicking of their half-backs, whether kicking for touch or for their hard-working three-quarters to chase and gather. That won’t change. The game plan is to win territory and then break out the play book of rehearsed moves, be it the driving maul that led to Jordi Murphy’s try in Chicago, or the switch pass from the back of a scrum that led to Henshaw’s.
More of this please
New Zealand’s main priority from two week ago will be a more reliable set-piece and fewer dropped balls, but don’t expect to deviate much from the ball-in-hand philosophy which has made them the most successful and arguably the greatest team in the history of the sport.
We might see Barrett sit back a bit deeper, to counter-act the rush defence of Henshaw and Payne and to set up more space for the superior open-field runners outside him.
Alternatively, we might see them use some of their forwards carrying up the middle, trying to suck Ireland defenders into the tackle/ruck and again, opening up the spaces further out. If this starts to happen, it’s critical that Ireland slow down recycling of possession from the ruck and O’Brien’s ability on the deck could be important here.
Key Players
New Zealand have such phenomenal players in their ranks but, two weeks ago, Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett failed to get them moving. If these guys click tomorrow, Ireland are in trouble. The return of Retallick and Whitelock in the row is also massive, not only at the lineout but in open play too, the NZ pack is going to have a much more balanced look to it and that is bad news for us.
It’s a bit of a cop-out to cite the half-backs as key players for Ireland too, but that is the reality of it. We saw two weeks ago how well Ireland can play when Murray is in imperious form and Sexton remains central to everything. Outside them, Robbie Henshaw was outstanding and will need to be again this week, shutting down the AB attack at source is crucial and Henshaw’s work rate and tackle count is key to this.
Miscellaneous Crap
After torrential rain yesterday, it’s bright and cold today and the forecast for tomorrow is similar, so hopefully we’ll have ideal conditions for a good game.
Referee is Jaco Peyper.
TV coverage is RTE2 and Sky Sports 2. Live radio commentary on RTE Radio 1.
Prediction Time
The bookies handicap is 16 points. When you think about it, considering we’re at home, that’s a pretty massive gap, but that’s the reality of it. Ireland are 6/1 to win a two-horse race on their own paddock.
Personally, I think we will lose and that’s OK. Just so long as we see a good performance and not the collapses that have so often followed good initial showings against New Zealand. If we’re in touching distance, I’ll be happy, and I’ll shoot with a 7-10 point win for New Zealand.
Teams:
Ireland: R Kearney; A Trimble, J Payne, R Henshaw, S Zebo; J Sexton, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best, T Furlong; D Toner, D Ryan; CJ Stander, S O'Brien, J Heaslip.
Replacements: S Cronin, C Healy, F Bealham, I Henderson, J van der Flier, K Marmion, P Jackson, G Ringrose.
New Zealand: B Smith; I Dagg, M Fekitoa, A Lienert-Brown, J Savea; B Barrett, A Smith; J Moody, D Coles, O Franks; B Retallick, S Whitelock; L Squire, S Can, K Read (capt).
Replacements: C Taylor, W Crockett, C Faumuina, S Barrett, A Savea, TJ Perenara, A Cruden, W Naholo.
And just for good measure:
How will it pan out? 84 votes
Historic second win over the All Blacks0%Gallant defeat to the best team ever to play the game47%
![[Deleted User]](https://w6.vanillicon.com/v2/6081e4655739e0887aaf16222f88b015.svg)
40 votes
NZ to give us the rugby equivalent of a wedgie and take our lunch money52%
44 votes
48
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSU_5MgtDc8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T53EF4wtQoComments
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NZ to give us the rugby equivalent of a wedgie and take our lunch moneyDeleted User wrote: »Nice NZ preview here to get the juices flowing: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/86605973/The-All-Blacks-have-tended-to-make-rather-short-work-of-Ireland?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Terry Wright. Right.
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![[Deleted User]](/applications/dashboard/design/images/defaulticon.png)
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