GW6 Transfers - Operation Bring Kun Back. MOD NOTE: PLEASE READ POST 71

patmac

km79 wrote: »

I'm benching Capoue again
This is not like mahrez where he was firing shots in , on pens and frees etc
5 shots 4 goals
It just can't continue
Right ?
Only player in MNF will be heaton!
That will be torture

I played him last week over Milner despite the advice on here, lost out twice to bigs scores and will keep playing him till he breaks.

Benimar

FHFC wrote: »

AOA is an option but totally disagree about the old "never take a hit for a defender" line.

This situation is made for taking a hit imo. He needs to get rid of Masuaku for sure (Shaw could be back this week). He could wait and use his precious ft next week, but with so much variability in mids and fwds form wise there will be something more pressing.

Or he could swap Masuaka for Lovren for example, who is very short odds for a CS this week and if he delivers, it will have a high chance of being the equivalent of an extra FT with next weeks FT saved.

AOA would be the best option if he wasn't needing to make a medium to long term change in defence anyhow, with some potential replacements having a great chance of gaining the 4 pts back. Even if he gains the 4 back next week its a break even given the value of the fts sort out attackers.

I'm not sure I agree with this to be honest. I'm also going AOA and did give consideration to Masuaku to Lovren for a -4, but I'm going to leave it.

By spending the -4 I'm obligated to play Lovren over one of my front 8, realistically one of Capoue, Barkley or Defoe. Assuming Lovren gets no more than 6 points, the other 3 match him with just their appearance points, taking into account the points hit.

Yes I have Lovren for future weeks, but what if he was to get sent off/injured tomorrow? I'd have to transfer him out again without (most likely) gaining a single point from him.

If things go amiss and I have to take a hit next week to bring in a Masuaku replacement (I might be able to do it for free) I can leave it till Friday and will have up to date info regarding injuries, suspensions etc.

Basically, I don't see a points benefit to taking a hit this week for a defender if you have a strong front 8. I'd play AOA and reassess next week if a hit is needed.

Mr.Prodston

What do we make of this then as a WC team?

De Gea - Pickford
Coleman - PVA - McAuley - Holebas - Amat
Sterling - Mane - Antonio - Capoue - Fletcher
Aguero - Zlatan - Lukaku

Goalkeeepers: It's a more straightforward strategy than deciding between Heaton and Jaku or Pickford and hoping they don't get dropped. Plus it frees up the defence to a bit more versatility.

Defenders: Coleman rather than Baines for price really plus probably more of a goal threat. Williams would help the bank though. PVA. He's got a nice set of fixtures and it'd be rude not to

Holebas is in vogue right now, Amat still has his place and Pulisball has a home in my team.

Midfield: Eh yeah, it does count as a midfield right? I'm not sold on Sterling, at all. But extra Man city yo. Antonio is on fire and seems to be getting lots of chances. Mane could catch fire at any moment. Capoue has to be taken seriously until he stops this nonsense. 5th mid is 5th mid.

Forwards: All fairly obvious and expensive here.

No cash left over :eek:

FHFC

Benimar wrote: »

I'm not sure I agree with this to be honest. I'm also going AOA and did give consideration to Masuaku to Lovren for a -4, but I'm going to leave it.

By spending the -4 I'm obligated to play Lovren over one of my front 8, realistically one of Capoue, Barkley or Defoe. Assuming Lovren gets no more than 6 points, the other 3 match him with just their appearance points, taking into account the points hit.

Yes I have Lovren for future weeks, but what if he was to get sent off/injured tomorrow? I'd have to transfer him out again without (most likely) gaining a single point from him.

If things go amiss and I have to take a hit next week to bring in a Masuaku replacement (I might be able to do it for free) I can leave it till Friday and will have up to date info regarding injuries, suspensions etc.

Basically, I don't see a points benefit to taking a hit this week for a defender if you have a strong front 8. I'd play AOA and reassess next week if a hit is needed.

AOA does complicate the logic by giving another option if you have a strong front 8. However there may well be other defensive crises where you don't have the "hit for a guy with 60% chance of a CS/extra FT" option. That scenario is an opportunity, a shot with great odds of gaining an extra FT and getting in a player you want over 6 to 8 weeks, so presented with that opportunity I'd take it personally.

Btw. The bit highlighted in the quote applies to any transfer whether a hit or not. I'm talking about probability and logic, the "he might trip on a tv remote and do his cruciate" argument doesn't really fly.

OneColdHand

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

What do we make of this then as a WC team?

De Gea - Pickford
Coleman - PVA - McAuley - Holebas - Amat
Sterling - Mane - Antonio - Capoue - Fletcher
Aguero - Zlatan - Lukaku

Goalkeeepers: It's a more straightforward strategy than deciding between Heaton and Jaku or Pickford and hoping they don't get dropped. Plus it frees up the defence to a bit more versatility.

Defenders: Coleman rather than Baines for price really plus probably more of a goal threat. Williams would help the bank though. PVA. He's got a nice set of fixtures and it'd be rude not to

Holebas is in vogue right now, Amat still has his place and Pulisball has a home in my team.

Midfield: Eh yeah, it does count as a midfield right? I'm not sold on Sterling, at all. But extra Man city yo. Antonio is on fire and seems to be getting lots of chances. Mane could catch fire at any moment. Capoue has to be taken seriously until he stops this nonsense. 5th mid is 5th mid.

Forwards: All fairly obvious and expensive here.

No cash left over :eek:

Generally looks good. However I think that a team without Kdb or Sanchez will always look a bit light. Is there any way you could get the fund to switch one of them in for Sterling, seeing as you don't seem to sold on him? Firming for Mane would free up some funds. So would Williams for Coleman, and Heaton/Foster for DDG.

Benimar

FHFC wrote: »

AOA does complicate the logic by giving another option if you have a strong front 8. However there may well be other defensive crises where you don't have the "hit for a guy with 60% chance of a CS/extra FT" option. That scenario is an opportunity[/b], a shot with great odds of gaining an extra FT and getting in a player you want over 6 to 8 weeks, so presented with that opportunity I'd take it personally.

Btw. The bit highlighted in the quote applies to any transfer whether a hit or not. I'm talking about probability and logic, the "he might trip on a tv remote and do his cruciate" argument doesn't really fly.

I'm talking about probability and logic too! Lovren upside (realistically) this week is 6 points, while his downside is injury/suspension, so doing his cruciate on the remote is relevant, if way down my list of possible injuries!


All things being equal, my upside is I break even (Lovren 6(-4) vs Capoue 2). Yes I have an extra FT IF it works out, but I have the downside of any injury/ban to Lovren and I'm taking another -4 next week. I'm essentially bringing in a player a week before I'll really benefit from him, hence the random injury becomes an issue (where it doesn't for a player who is brought in with hope of contributing immediately).

It probably comes down to personal choice. Those who like a bit of 'risk' will do the -4 and hope to get the extra FT out of it. Those that like to 'play it safe' will go AOA and take a hit next week if needed then. I'm not opposed to taking hits for a defender, but with a strong front 8 I'm using AOA first. Sure, maybe a 'better' opportunity will arise to use it, but maybe it won't - as us late WCers last season will testify.

Two other factors to consider - firstly AOA is the weakest chip. Plenty of people will probably lose points when they play it, so its pot luck when you play it. Secondly, a lot of people have a strong front 8 due to Capoue as a 5th mid, so who knows when the opportunity might arise again.

If there is no AOA, this is a different conversation, but it does and I'd use it before taking a hit.

Shedite27

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

What do we make of this then as a WC team?

De Gea - Pickford
Coleman - PVA - McAuley - Holebas - Amat
Sterling - Mane - Antonio - Capoue - Fletcher
Aguero - Zlatan - Lukaku

I'm very similar, but have Costa/Sanchez/Firmino in place of your Sterling/Mane/Ibra. Toss of a coin between them all really.

Lemlin

Opinions on WC:

Heaton (Pickford)
Williams Holebas Evans (Amat, Gibson)
Antonio Snodgrass Firmino Sanchez (Capoue)
Lukaku Costa Kun

fennor72

Just wondering what would be a good captains choice this weekend. I've Ibra kun costa and de bruyne all in my team but I've also coutinho and I'm thinking he might be a good bet for captain. What do you think

F1ngers

fennor72 wrote: »

Just wondering what would be a good captains choice this weekend. I've Ibra kun costa and de bruyne all in my team but I've also coutinho and I'm thinking he might be a good bet for captain. What do you think

Have a look at the GW captains poll thread.

FHFC

Benimar wrote: »

I'm talking about probability and logic too! Lovren upside (realistically) this week is 6 points, while his downside is injury/suspension, so doing his cruciate on the remote is relevant, if way down my list of possible injuries!


All things being equal, my upside is I break even (Lovren 6(-4) vs Capoue 2). Yes I have an extra FT IF it works out, but I have the downside of any injury/ban to Lovren and I'm taking another -4 next week. I'm essentially bringing in a player a week before I'll really benefit from him, hence the random injury becomes an issue (where it doesn't for a player who is brought in with hope of contributing immediately).

It probably comes down to personal choice. Those who like a bit of 'risk' will do the -4 and hope to get the extra FT out of it. Those that like to 'play it safe' will go AOA and take a hit next week if needed then. I'm not opposed to taking hits for a defender, but with a strong front 8 I'm using AOA first. Sure, maybe a 'better' opportunity will arise to use it, but maybe it won't - as us late WCers last season will testify.

Two other factors to consider - firstly AOA is the weakest chip. Plenty of people will probably lose points when they play it, so its pot luck when you play it. Secondly, a lot of people have a strong front 8 due to Capoue as a 5th mid, so who knows when the opportunity might arise again.

If there is no AOA, this is a different conversation, but it does and I'd use it before taking a hit.

Sorry. But its completely irrelevant to this discussion about the merits of a hit. Capoue could get injured on a remote or sent off. So could any player you own or might bring in.

Btw. The rest of that is fair comment. AOA does change things and if you want a good chance to use it fair enough. But the argument that risk of injury etc is a factor against the hit has no logical or probability basis.

unplayable

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Who is the best of the remaining 4.5m or under mids, I'm sure it's been discussed but I'm only dipping in here at the moment
Fletcher seems to get the minutes but has he been in the oppositions penalty box yet this decade?

Hoiljberg

Swiper the fox

unplayable wrote: »

Hoiljberg

Too much uncertainty around his game time I'd say.

I've changed tack, I'm now going to go without Ibra for a while to try something out, I'll probably regret it but it allows me to get Aguero back and replace Hazard with Firmino.

Benimar

FHFC wrote: »

Sorry. But its completely irrelevant to this discussion about the merits of a hit. Capoue could get injured on a remote or sent off. So could any player you own or might bring in.

It's not relevant to the discussion about the merits of taking a hit in isolation, but it is to the original discussion about whether to play AOA instead of taking a hit.

Would you take a hit this week to bring in a player if you were going to bench him until next week? Of course not, but That's effectively what taking a hit for a defender instead of playing AOA amounts to, if you have a decent front 8.

The point isn't that someone could get injured, it's that you are taking a -4 for a player that won't benefit you points wise until next week, which to me is an unnecessary risk.

If I didn't have AOA Lovren would benefit me tomorrow as I only have 2 defenders and I'd 100% take the hit, as Lovren points would count in this weeks score.

FHFC

Benimar wrote: »

It's not relevant to the discussion about the merits of taking a hit in isolation, but it is to the original discussion about whether to play AOA instead of taking a hit.

Would you take a hit this week to bring in a player if you were going to bench him until next week? Of course not, but That's effectively what taking a hit for a defender instead of playing AOA amounts to, if you have a decent front 8.

The point isn't that someone could get injured, it's that you are taking a -4 for a player that won't benefit you points wise until next week, which to me is an unnecessary risk.

If I didn't have AOA Lovren would benefit me tomorrow as I only have 2 defenders and I'd 100% take the hit, as Lovren points would count in this weeks score.

Yes. But all of the above is the AOA point and nothing to do with the "Lovren could get injured point" you made originally, which is the only bit I wasn't buying!

As I said the above points are is fair enough. The difference being that I see the defence situation as an opportunity. And also that I don't yet buy Capoue as a strong front 8, but that's another argument!

Manutd_4life

So now that we are nearly there, has operation bring kun back been a success for most people?

Benimar

FHFC wrote: »

Yes. But all of the above is the AOA point and nothing to do with the "Lovren could get injured point" you made originally, which is the only bit I wasn't buying!

As I said the above points are is fair enough. The difference being that I see the defence situation as an opportunity. And also that I don't yet buy Capoue as a strong front 8, but that's another argument!

The imaginary injury is only relevant because I wouldn't benefit from Lovren this week. If I wait till next Friday it will still only cost me -4, but I don't have to worry about him being injured in the meantime.

As for the 2nd paragraph, you are a risk seeker, I'm risk averse. Two different mindsets, neither incorrect!

FHFC

Benimar wrote: »

The imaginary injury is only relevant because I wouldn't benefit from Lovren this week. If I wait till next Friday it will still only cost me -4, but I don't have to worry about him being injured in the meantime.

As for the 2nd paragraph, you are a risk seeker, I'm risk averse. Two different mindsets, neither incorrect!

Ah. But if you're not going to play him of course you don't take the hit. That goes without saying!

The debate was play AOA vs save AOA for a time where ther wasn't an easy defender transfer for -4 with 60% (going by bookies odds) of success. At least it was in my head!

Playing AOA and taking the hit was never an option as it makes zero sense.

Benimar

FHFC wrote: »

Ah. But if you're not going to play him of course you don't take the hit. That goes without saying!

The debate was play AOA vs save AOA for a time where ther wasn't an easy defender transfer for -4 with 60% (going by bookies odds) of success. At least it was in my head!

Playing AOA and taking the hit was never an option as it makes zero sense.

As a Liverpool fan, I wouldn't have the same level of confidence as the bookies in a clean sheet!

FHFC

Benimar wrote: »

As a Liverpool fan, I wouldn't have the same level of confidence as the bookies in a clean sheet!

True. I'm tempted by Lovren for Collins against my better judgement. But have a decent defence for this week so will wait and see.

skippy15

Agüeros sterling Sanchez in
Costa hazard oil out all looked good at the time

Porthallian

skippy15 wrote: »

Ag eros sterling Sanchez in
Costa hazard oil out all looked good at the time

Well oil be damned...

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

How do I find out what % of people have Aguero for tomorrow... A lot of lads used the WC last week...hard to see how they can get him in without hits.

Shedite27

The Honey Monster wrote: »

How do I find out what % of people have Aguero for tomorrow... A lot of lads used the WC last week...hard to see how they can get him in without hits.

FPL site, on his profile.

Currently 30.3%

km79

km79

km79 wrote: »

You pressed 'confirm' by mistake.

km79

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You pressed 'confirm' by mistake.

No but I now have the puntiest midfield ever
Antonio shaquiri Bolasie Sanchez
Capoue benched
This is going to end one of 2 ways .........

km79

Kasper schmeichel out tomorrow
Mike dean reffing
Rooney likely to be dropped according to the papers
Arise King Zlatan

Potential Underachiever

km79 wrote: »

Kasper schmeichel out tomorrow
Mike dean reffing
Rooney likely to be dropped according to the papers
Arise King Zlatan

GULP! just got rid.

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

Why oh why is everyone benching capoue...