Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

irishbucsfan

Buer wrote: »

But that means absolutely nothing in this arena and it's extremely different doing it in the 6N and doing it for the Lions in NZ. He has started poorly. There are multiple options for the 15 jersey. He's already playing catch up.

I always expected Halfpenny to get the nod for the test team. Halfpenny gave a consumate Halfpenny performance yesterday. He was tidy, comfortable and kicked his goals really well. That's all Gatland needs.

Right, but to reply to the original question "Is Hogg really needed on the pitch for any reason?"

Well, I'd say potentially he might be absolutely vital on the pitch. If Sexton can't recover decent form and fitness then our backline (with Halfpenny) will likely be something like

Murray/Webb, Farrell, Williams/Watson, Henshaw/Te'o, Davies/Payne, North, Halfpenny

There's a few very possible alternates there but none of them actually change this point. In any of these combinations we are left with only one pivot, only one player who can comfortably come onto the ball at first receiver and move it on. I think that's suicide against NZ. It works for a team like Ireland where you're extremely disciplined and have a lineout to target. But that's unlikely to be an option for the Lions.

Its especially dangerous when your 10 is someone like Farrell (or Sexton) who is so active in defense and who gets so involved physically. Because when you win a turnover you'll often find your 10 is at the bottom of the pile or off somewhere else in the defensive line. Having a 2nd option means that we can survive those situations and most importantly play at a much higher tempo. We don't have any 12s on tour who can do that other than Farrell, and Hogg is the only 15 who can (unless Goode arrives).

That's really the only way I can see the Lions beat NZ because the second our tempo drops our attack will become toothless and possession will become more of a liability than an asset, and we don't have the time to put together a set piece that can get us past that.

Clegg

Te'o and Roberts could well be the midfield for the Lions.

Jaysus.

Buer

That's fair enough. He can certainly bring a spark to the back line and has an ability to spot openings that others don't. However, he needs to actually show that. He tried and failed in the opening game and I reckon Saturday is going to be his only other chance to do it. If he doesn't do it, he's probably going to be out of the reckoning. The Maori game will be a dry run for the test side and he's not going to start on Wednesday. Opportunities are extemely scarce.

I don't see Gatland putting more of a value on Hogg's ability to create from nothing than Halfpenny's solidity. The plan is going to be taking them on up front and earning position and points from the set piece. That all goes hand in hand with having a completely reliable goal kicker. Halfpenny was pretty solid with ball in hand yesterday too (if one dimensional) and ran it back well which is going to strengthen his case.

I think Hogg's best hope is the 23 jersey.

irishbucsfan

Clegg wrote: »

Te'o and Roberts could well be the midfield for the Lions.

Jaysus.

I'd say that's quite unlikely

Clegg

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I'd say that's quite unlikely

Davies.

He and Roberts played so much together they're a single entity. Like Darcriscoll.

stephen_n

Farrel at 12 gives them a second pivot and might allow Sexton sir a little deeper to pull the strings.

irishbucsfan

Buer wrote: »

That's fair enough. He can certainly bring a spark to the back line and has an ability to spot openings that others don't. However, he needs to actually show that. He tried and failed in the opening game and I reckon Saturday is going to be his only other chance to do it. If he doesn't do it, he's probably going to be out of the reckoning. The Maori game will be a dry run for the test side and he's not going to start on Wednesday. Opportunities are extemely scarce.

I don't see Gatland putting more of a value on Hogg's ability to create from nothing than Halfpenny's solidity. The plan is going to be taking them on up front and earning position and points from the set piece. That all goes hand in hand with having a completely reliable goal kicker. Halfpenny was pretty solid with ball in hand yesterday too (if one dimensional) and ran it back well which is going to strengthen his case.

I think Hogg's best hope is the 23 jersey.

Halfpenny is worth maybe 6 points for 80 minutes as a kicker over Farrell/Sexton.

I think they'll be sacrificing far more than that if they pick a backline with only one of Farrell/Sexton and no 2nd pivot. If we start to slow down and become static against NZ their defense will kill us and turnovers will be extremely costly.

Hogg was really poor in the opening game. Sexton has been poor in both of his. I think we need one of those two to find something before the first test.

Buer

Pretty decent Lions team, hopefully they can keep it respectable.

Buer wrote: »

The plan is going to be taking them on up front and earning position and points from the set piece.

Then like night follows day there's a 3-0 test whitewash incoming.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Halfpenny is worth maybe 6 points for 80 minutes as a kicker over Farrell/Sexton.

Seems a bit extreme. I'd be very surprised if their kicking percentages backed that up.

irishbucsfan

Clegg wrote: »

Davies.

He and Roberts played so much together they're a single entity. Like Darcriscoll.

Davies has been in really good form in recent months. I've no concerns about him at all.

I personally think we should start Te'o/Payne just to give the NZ Herald something obvious to complain about so they'll leave poor Umaga alone.

Buer

Billy Beautiful Guillotine wrote: »

Then like night follows day there's a 3-0 test whitewash incoming.

I'm not sure there's any selection that is availabe which would lead to any other outcome, to be honest, as defeatist as that sounds.

They can probably get close in one game based on physicality, set piece and error free execution but in terms of attacking patterns, I don't see them troubling NZ.

molloyjh

I think Buer is right in terms of what Gatland will select while IBF is right in terms of beating NZ. So you're both right and Gatland is wrong.

We do need to score tries to beat NZ. Simple as. We're not going to be able to do that with a single pivot unless we've got some serious surprises up our sleeves. I don't think we have serious surprises up our sleeves. But then none of this surprises me. Surely we all knew what was coming from this coaching team?

Buer

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Davies has been in really good form in recent months. I've no concerns about him at all.

He's a bizzarely underrated player in Ireland. There are set opinions on some players and he's one of them. For example, Jonathan Davies overrated, Scott Williams underrated. Doesn't really matter how they're playing.

He was even pretty decent in the 6N but many were saying he was having a poor tournament and shouldn't be in the squad.

Buer

molloyjh wrote: »

We do need to score tries to beat NZ. Simple as. We're not going to be able to do that with a single pivot unless we've got some serious surprises up our sleeves. I don't think we have serious surprises up our sleeves. But then none of this surprises me. Surely we all knew what was coming from this coaching team?

Well, I suppose the outside bet of a second distributor in the back line is that Payne gets the nod at 13. It did the trick in Chicago, for example. That would allow Halfpenny to start at 15 and kick his goals whilst having a very sound defensive option at 13 who can also step in at first receiver in phase play.

Over the last year Sexton and Farrell have both kicked better than Halfpenny...

Podge_irl

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Halfpenny is worth maybe 6 points for 80 minutes as a kicker over Farrell/Sexton.

That would be an absolutely monstrous difference. It would be nowhere even close.

awec

If Teo and Davies go well at the weekend I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them picked as the test pairing. Nobody did themselves any favours yesterday, Teo fits Gatland's preferred style and Davies is an obvious choice.

Buer

AdamD wrote: »

Over the last year Sexton and Farrell have both kicked better than Halfpenny...

It's all in the context of a Lions tour when the pressure is completely on and you're out of your comfort zone. Halfpenny kicked perfectly yesterday. Farrell and Sexton both missed straightforward kicks on Saturday.

If Gatland reckons Halfpenny is in better kicking form then he'll get the nod. The fact that he was taking the kicks yesterday ahead of Sexton already suggests this is the case.

Webbs

AdamD wrote: »

Over the last year Sexton and Farrell have both kicked better than Halfpenny...

But if it came down to the 79th min kick wide out on 10m line to win who would you want to take the kick. The kicking % of all three are all about the same so its down to whos better under pressure and for me its halfpenny

CMOTDibbler

AdamD wrote: »

Over the last year Sexton and Farrell have both kicked better than Halfpenny...

Podge_irl wrote: »

That would be an absolutely monstrous difference. It would be nowhere even close.

There's some truth in what IBF is saying. And some truth in the above.

Halfpenny definitely attempts more long range efforts than the other two and gets a lot of them. But his misses affect his overall stats.

Former Former

Webbs wrote: »

But if it came down to the 79th min kick wide out on 10m line to win who would you want to take the kick. The kicking % of all three are all about the same so its down to whos better under pressure and for me its halfpenny

This comes up a lot. It's exactly what happened in 2013 and Halfpenny fluffed it.

I don't think there's much between any of them as kickers really. The fact that Halfpenny was kicking yesterday probably tells us a lot though.

You could also argue that leaving Halfpenny out and picking Hogg gives you an option for long range kicks that you don't have with the other three.

thomond2006

Big test for the Lions front five.

Thelomen Toblackai

The thing is North will likely start on the wing. Liam Williams if he plays well against the Crusaders will also be close to starting in the back 3. If you go with Williams and North then Halfpenny probably balances the back 3 better than anyone else given also provides an experienced head, a good kicking option and familiarity.

This is Gatland and the team haven't gelled as well as they have done previously. He'll have to go with familiar combinations in certain areas.

aloooof

thomond2006 wrote: »

Big test for the Lions front five.

Absolutely, Crusaders front five is ridiculous. I think that could very well be the Lions starting front 5 for the first Test. Maybe Itoje in for Kruis or Ken Owens in.

irishbucsfan

Podge_irl wrote: »

That would be an absolutely monstrous difference. It would be nowhere even close.

I agree that it would be less but goalkickers.co.za claims it's more so I split the difference

Buer

Former Former wrote: »

This comes up a lot. It's exactly what happened in 2013 and Halfpenny fluffed it.

I think that's more than a little disingenuous to Halfpenny. The kick was from just inside his own half and out to the side. I don't think there was a kicker on the tour who would have got that. Hogg was probably the only one with the distance but his kicking accuracy was far worse at that stage of his career.

Podge_irl

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

There's some truth in what IBF is saying. And some truth in the above.

Halfpenny definitely attempts more long range efforts than the other two and gets a lot of them. But his misses affect his overall stats.

I can understand that point of view. I also think Sexton at least can be a bit streakier - and a bad run of kicks sticks in the head. 6 points per game would be an insanely high differential though and would, to my mind, eliminate this completely as a discussion. If it exists it would be more on the order of 1-2 points per game (and I would imagine on the lower end of that scale). Which is still relevant - fine margins and all that.

dub_skav

I think what halfpenny kicking yesterday shows is that Biggar is not in the contest to start the tests. Halfpenny was kicking ahead of Biggar and when Johnny came on, Halfpenny continued kicking, so I don't think we can read too much into Halfpenny over Johnny.
But, Gatland does really like him as a kicker so I could be wrong there.

awec

dub_skav wrote: »

I think what halfpenny kicking yesterday shows is that Biggar is not in the contest to start the tests. Halfpenny was kicking ahead of Biggar and when Johnny came on, Halfpenny continued kicking, so I don't think we can read too much into Halfpenny over Johnny.
But, Gatland does really like him as a kicker so I could be wrong there.

If Farrell goes well on Saturday then Sexton and Biggar will be fighting it out for the bench spot.

Buer

Buer wrote: »

I think that's more than a little disingenuous to Halfpenny. The kick was from just inside his own half and out to the side. I don't think there was a kicker on the tour who would have got that. Hogg was probably the only one with the distance but his kicking accuracy was far worse at that stage of his career.

Agreed, as you say he didn't fluff it anyway, it he didn't bottle it or let the pressure get to him, he simply didn't have the length.


Anyway Sexton almost certainly won't be starting the first test considering his form. I'd be happy enough with either Farrell or 1/2p kicking, and I think they should pick the fullback who is most likely to create/score/be involved in tries.

On Sexton, I wonder if he's now suffering from the ridiculous lack of gametime he got at Leinster in the second part of the season. He played three times for Leinster after the 6N, against Wasps, Clermont and Scarlets. He's totally undercooked imo.

Tigerandahalf

awec wrote: »

If Farrell goes well on Saturday then Sexton and Biggar will be fighting it out for the bench spot.

I wouldn't have Sexton anywhere near the 23. He is too much of an injury risk. Start him and he could be gone after 5 mins. Same if coming off the bench. It creates too much disruption.

The same could be said for North and SOB. You can't be carrying guys on a tour.

One of the Lions strength is their impact and experience off the bench but that is heavily negated by having injury risks in the 23. It is just not worth it.