The Economy : Any one else starting to get very worried ?

The Rape of Lucretia

All the headlines starting to look very good :

- exchequer returns up and ahead of forecast
- unemployment dropping each quarter
- unions looking for double digit pay increases
- Ireland the fastest growing economy in Europe
- construction industry rising steadily
- Iseq index on a steady rise since 2011
- widespread wage increases beyond inflation
- people cannot afford property and agitation for govt subsidies to help them


Oh ****. Where have we seen these before ?
Oh, thats right. Its déjà vu all over again repeatedly for a second time.

Anyone else starting to get nervous about all these 'positive' economic notices ?

smash

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Anyone else starting to get nervous about all these 'positive' economic notices ?

Fcuk no... I can sell my house, clear the mortgage, have profit and buy it back at half price in 4/5 years!

HeidiHeidi

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

All the headlines starting to look very good :

- exchequer returns up and ahead of forecast
- unemployment dropping each quarter
- unions looking for double digit pay increases
- Ireland the fastest growing economy in Europe
- construction industry rising steadily
- Iseq index on a steady rise since 2011
- widespread wage increases beyond inflation
- people cannot afford property and agitation for govt subsidies to help them


Oh ****. Where have we seen these before ?
Oh, thats right. Its déjà vu all over again repeatedly for a second time.

Anyone else starting to get nervous about all these 'positive' economic notices ?

The thing most worrying me is the size of the Irish Times property supplement these days. Getting bigger and more salubrious by the week.

donegaLroad

I'm not sure if I feel worried, but I heard yesterday that a couple of local pharma companies are only offering 3 month contracts at the minute.. and a particular call centre not too far away only rent their pcs and office furniture (maybe that's normal? I don't know).

darkpagandeath

Sure when the world economy goes t*ts up again we will be fine. Oh wait what happened last time.

The Sidewards Man

Dont get worried until you see the crew cab 4x4 outside the pub with no tow hitch.

donegaLroad

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

The thing most worrying me is the size of the Irish Times property supplement these days. Getting bigger and more salubrious by the week.

back during the Great Delusion, the Sunday papers were practically funded by the estate agents and companies with vested interest in property.

screamer

Not really you've got to remember the **** base that these figures are coming from. Compared to pre 2008 figures which were from a pie in the sky base. As the old saying goes when you hit the bottom the only way is up.

But sure with typical oirish pessimism let's talk ourselves into doom gloom kaboom once again.......

The Randy Riverbeast

Nope, just missed out on the last one but was old enough to be told we all partied and I'm entitled for expecting to get paid to work. This time I'm gonna ****ing party like it's 2001. Loans for everything, living beyond my means and then when it goes tits up blame someone else.

Live in an apartment, will stick the decking in the living room with a patio heater.

DontThankMe

No OP we shouldn't be worried at all as long as the government uses a contractionary fiscal policy which would be raising taxes and lowering government spending to cool the economy. This is the opposite of what the government did during the previous boom they we using an expansionary fiscal policy by increasing government spending and lower taxes this magnified the boom in the economy making the recession that followed a lot worse. Growth is good as long as it is controlled and steady.

The Rape of Lucretia

DontThankMe wrote: »

No OP we shouldn't be worried at all as long as the government uses a contractionary fiscal policy which would be raising taxes and lowering government spending to cool the economy. This is the opposite of what the government did during the previous boom they we using an expansionary fiscal policy by increasing government spending and lower taxes this magnified the boom in the economy making the recession that followed a lot worse. Growth is good as long as it is controlled and steady.

The new government could be in for a tough summer then.

Huge marches agitating for a rise in taxes and decreases in health, education, and social welfare spending on the cards then. Water protests were only the tip of the iceberg. Could get nasty, with minister for finance pinned in his car by an angry mob baying for an increase in the base income tax rate and for the USC to be doubled.

People pressure on the govt will provoke a really austere budget this autumn I expect.

kneemos

The same self defeatest crap every time things look vaguely better.Some people ain't happy unless they're wallowing in misery.

washman3

screamer wrote: »

But sure with typical oirish pessimism let's talk ourselves into doom gloom kaboom once again.......

Just like we did the last time...
It wasn't really a recession, we just believed it was..;)

darkpagandeath

screamer wrote: »

Not really you've got to remember the **** base that these figures are coming from. Compared to pre 2008 figures which were from a pie in the sky base. As the old saying goes when you hit the bottom the only way is up.

But sure with typical oirish pessimism let's talk ourselves into doom gloom kaboom once again.......

Yeah glad we are not affected by the world economy.

PARlance

DontThankMe wrote: »

No OP we shouldn't be worried at all as long as the government uses a contractionary fiscal policy which would be raising taxes and lowering government spending to cool the economy. This is the opposite of what the government did during the previous boom they we using an expansionary fiscal policy by increasing government spending and lower taxes this magnified the boom in the economy making the recession that followed a lot worse. Growth is good as long as it is controlled and steady.

And you think a Government with an election looming in the next couple of years will do that?

DontThankMe

PARlance wrote: »

And you think a Government with an election looming in the next couple of years will do that?

I doubt it because it is an unpopular policy but spending and not taking in enough tax revenue was one of the reasons the recession was so bad. We can't just keep spending all the extra revenue the goverment takes in i think most of the electorate don't realise this. So even if a government did try to introduce these policies they'd be voted out in the next election.

mzungu

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

The thing most worrying me is the size of the Irish Times property supplement these days. Getting bigger and more salubrious by the week.

Must be why they hiked up the price! It sure wasn't the news section that got bigger anyways.

5starpool

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The new government could be in for a tough summer then.

Huge marches agitating for a rise in taxes and decreases in health, education, and social welfare spending on the cards then. Water protests were only the tip of the iceberg. Could get nasty, with minister for finance pinned in his car by an angry mob baying for an increase in the base income tax rate and for the USC to be doubled.

People pressure on the govt will provoke a really austere budget this autumn I expect.

Who the hell would protest to get big tax increases?

dresden8

screamer wrote: »

Not really you've got to remember the **** base that these figures are coming from. Compared to pre 2008 figures which were from a pie in the sky base. As the old saying goes when you hit the bottom the only way is up.

But sure with typical oirish pessimism let's talk ourselves into doom gloom kaboom once again.......

Yup, this time it's different. That's also a sure sign.

dresden8

kneemos wrote: »

The same self defeatest crap every time things look vaguely better.Some people ain't happy unless they're wallowing in misery.

There's another one. Safe as houses I tells ya......

PARlance

DontThankMe wrote: »

I doubt it because it is an unpopular policy but spending and not taking in enough tax revenue was one of the reasons the recession was so bad. We can't just keep spending all the extra revenue the goverment takes in i think most of the electorate don't realise this. So even if a government did try to introduce these policies they'd be voted out in the next election.

Really!

DontThankMe

PARlance wrote: »

Really!

Yup even though it is the right thing to do economically for the country, it would be political suicide.

PARlance

DontThankMe wrote: »

Yup even though it is the right thing to do economically for the country, it would be political suicide.

Bingo.

Damien360

We learned nothing as a country from the last recession. The economy is out of control and rising too fast again. We will be bailing out banks again in the not too distant future.

JustTheOne

There is a common theme in this country.

FF boom the economy then bust it.
FG come along fix it.
FF get back in and we're off again.

FG take the slack for doing the responsible thing and taking the nasty measures needed.

Happened before and is happening again and the people are only too happy to lap it up.

Thankfully the only people who are acting sensibly and not allowing a property bubble to happen again is the central bank with their lending rules but they are coming under pressure to ease them from all angles and we may have another one soon.

Hopefully they see sense and stay committed to their rules.

Raging_Ninja

DontThankMe wrote: »

I doubt it because it is an unpopular policy but spending and not taking in enough tax revenue was one of the reasons the recession was so bad. We can't just keep spending all the extra revenue the goverment takes in i think most of the electorate don't realise this. So even if a government did try to introduce these policies they'd be voted out in the next election.

I don't know where you were back then, but the State ran a budget surplus during the boom years...

JustTheOne

JustTheOne wrote: »

FG take the slack for doing the responsible thing and taking the nasty measures needed.

"Oh they were SOOOOO nasty".

Denis O'Brien.

JustTheOne

[Deleted User] wrote: »

"Oh they were SOOOOO nasty".

Denis O'Brien.

Rabble rabble.

KomradeBishop

While individual sectors in the economy, like construction, can overheat - you deal with them individually (e.g. getting lending under control, which has been done now), cutting government spending in general, is a very very blunt instrument to be using, for targeting just one sector of the economy - which will hold back the rest of the economy.

The time that government spending will lead to overheating the economy in general, is when full employment is reached - that's when it needs to be tapered off.

As things are: Yes, do be worried. Europe is now in deflation again (something that can only really be cured with a massive government spending boost EU-wide) - this is a trend we may become stuck in Japan-style, for an extremely long time - if that's the case, we're in for long-term stagnation - and as debatably 'good' as Ireland is supposedly doing now, we are in deflation too and this will drag us down over time too.

Mongfinder General

kneemos wrote: »

The same self defeatest crap every time things look vaguely better.Some people ain't happy unless they're wallowing in misery.

I don't know why some people just don't go and kill themselves...

Jawgap

I think the only people who need to be worried are those funding their lifestyles on credit.....

.....but the signs of the boom getting boomier are all there - lots of builders with new vans / jeeps, bulging property supplements, tower cranes in Carlow, people changing their car every year......

.....all we need now is billboards advertising flats by using strawberries and a girl draped across high end kitchen fittings and some Cork langer on d'telly pushing property on a windswept Atlantic island as a great investment