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Any thoughts on Ryanair

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,019 ✭✭✭ct5amr2ig1nfhp


    Results out today.

    Profit up 11%
    Cancellations cost 25m
    Pilots pay increases 45m


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    Good news this morning and the SP has reacted accordingly.

    However it is still far from plain sailing ahead. They have been doing a fair bit of marketing and fare slashing recently, presumably in an effort to negate the adverse publicity surrounding the cancellations. There is still a question mark around whether the cancellation issue is fully put to bed. EasyJet are after getting a chunk of Air Berlin and are expected to recruit 1,000 of their pilots. Ryanair still have the pilots issue to resolve, recruiting/training new ones and managing the increasingly belligerent existing pilots, if the existing pilots manage to unite they would have Ryanair over a barrell, something that MO'L might find very hard to stomach.

    Still a good company but it wouldn't take a lot for things to start going pear shaped


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 993 ✭✭✭737max


    Easyjet have a significantly higher cost base than Ryanair and taking over some parts of Air Berlin is going to do nothing to help that. Even with the increases in pilot pay which Ryanair are willing to surrender their cost base is the lowest in the business by a long long way. There are articles on the internet which discuss it but I'm not going looking for them at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    737max wrote: »
    Easyjet have a significantly higher cost base than Ryanair and taking over some parts of Air Berlin is going to do nothing to help that. Even with the increases in pilot pay which Ryanair are willing to surrender their cost base is the lowest in the business by a long long way. There are articles on the internet which discuss it but I'm not going looking for them at the moment.

    The issue there (as I understand it) is that Ryanair are willing to increase pilot pay (and T&C's) but not to the extent that the pilots want. If Ryanair pilots manage to get themselves organised (while the pilot shortage continues to exist) Ryanair will be paying them far in excess of what they are currently offering if they want to avoid further disruption. If they could get their hands on a chunk of the Air Berlin or Monarch pilots that would weaken the pilot's position and ease the pressure on Ryanair.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 993 ✭✭✭737max


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    The issue there (as I understand it) is that Ryanair are willing to increase pilot pay (and T&C's) but not to the extent that the pilots want. If Ryanair pilots manage to get themselves organised (while the pilot shortage continues to exist) Ryanair will be paying them far in excess of what they are currently offering if they want to avoid further disruption. If they could get their hands on a chunk of the Air Berlin or Monarch pilots that would weaken the pilot's position and ease the pressure on Ryanair.
    Pilots are for the most part contracted and what current pilots want is not what the market is happy to settle for. Those who are agitating don't want to admit that Ryanair pilots are now well paid and the non-financial benefits of working up hours on an in-demand airframe with huge career possibilities within Ryanair and outside are great incentives.

    You need to decide if you believe the message being propagated in media or if the fundamentals of the Ryanair offer are genuinely good.
    I made my decision that what is being pushed in the media is mostly misleading noise.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    737max wrote: »
    Pilots are for the most part contracted and what current pilots want is not what the market is happy to settle for. Those who are agitating don't want to admit that Ryanair pilots are now well paid and the non-financial benefits of working up hours on an in-demand airframe with huge career possibilities within Ryanair and outside are great incentives.

    You need to decide if you believe the message being propagated in media or if the fundamentals of the Ryanair offer are genuinely good.
    I made my decision that what is being pushed in the media is mostly misleading noise.

    Fair enough, and all I'm suggesting is the pilot issue (if one exists) is a potential bump on the road for Ryanair. If there is no pilot issue and no further issue re flight cancellations then it's full steam ahead.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 993 ✭✭✭737max


    The only thing investors should be annoyed about is that Ryanair is mostly responsible for driving Monarch, Air Berlin and Alitalia out of business but their current embarrassments prevent them from capitalising fully on this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,019 ✭✭✭ct5amr2ig1nfhp


    Ryanair responsible for their collapse is a stretch.

    All three airlines you mentioned have been struggling financially for years. Air Berlin was operating in an already crowded German market. Monarch didn't know where they were at and Alitalia refuse to change with the times.
    737max wrote: »
    The only thing investors should be annoyed about is that Ryanair is mostly responsible for driving Monarch, Air Berlin and Alitalia out of business but their current embarrassments prevent them from capitalising fully on this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Ryanair trading around €15.50 on ISEQ today....after a couple of days of losses, anybody else tempted ?

    When the share price fell down to about €15.50 there in Oct due to the roostering problems, I was a bit slow off the mark and didn't fill my boots ...(I posted on here at the time). The Shares subsequently rose 20% to above €18.30 in the weeks after that when it emerged that Ryanair results were hardly dented at all by the cancellations.

    Will this latest issue with Pilots striking provide another opportunity to buy in ? Shares down to about €16.90 today on ISE.

    But how low will they go ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,019 ✭✭✭ct5amr2ig1nfhp


    Share price sliding further, currently 15.76. Time to buy a few?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 993 ✭✭✭737max


    I'd be buying except they are already too large a part of my (humble) portfolio. I need balance. Definitely not selling.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Share price sliding further, currently 15.76. Time to buy a few?

    Got some at €15.65, a few minutes ago :-)

    (Wasn't going to miss out on a dip, again). If O'Leary can sort out the Pilots and with Monarch out of business ....the future could be bright


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,019 ✭✭✭ct5amr2ig1nfhp


    Got distracted luckily! Got a few at 15.50 but expect it to drop further.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Got distracted luckily! Got a few at 15.50 but expect it to drop further.

    Nice one.

    I got a couple more at €15.47 just now ... they are on a real slide, -5% in a couple of hours, this surely won't continue into the afternoon? ...hope theres nothing in the news that I have missed :-[


  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Still a bit to play out here yet. Michael has given in on a 35 year solid stance that has been the bed rock of Ryanairs success as a low cost air line. Now that the gates have opened to the unions its very unclear the damage this could do. Its certainly going to strain the low cost model. This dip is not the same as the roster problem. Although that has led to where we are today it was never going to have the same long term effect as a unionised Ryanair will have. I wouldn't be surprised if this went below €14 over the next few months.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Erm... I hadn't seen the news on the Union recognition :-(

    Share price is down almost 7% today.

    Even so...I still think its an opportunity to pick up some shares. If they fall further over the next few days ..pick up more.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Watching with interest to see if the price will slump below €15.

    If it does, I'll be tempted to buy more


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,029 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    15.14 at 15:30.


  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Erm... I hadn't seen the news on the Union recognition :-(


    Its your money Littlevillage so you can spend it as you please. I would suggest you get a business app or any reasonable investing apps so you can check the news now and again. If any share price falls 5% all of a sudden and especially one like Ryanair there is always reason. Buying blind is not good for the bank balance.

    anyone wounder whats going on with Michael O Leary? A lot of decisions at Ryanair that do not have his stamp on them, today's been the biggest. They say they took this decision to accommodate all their customer flying home for Christmas. In return they risk dumping their life long USP. Would Michael really do that? If so why? For such a driven, sure footed company you would have to question what's going on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    lucky john wrote: »
    Erm... I hadn't seen the news on the Union recognition :-(


    Its your money Littlevillage so you can spend it as you please. I would suggest you get a business app or any reasonable investing apps so you can check the news now and again. If any share price falls 5% all of a sudden and especially one like Ryanair there is always reason. Buying blind is not good for the bank balance.

    anyone wounder whats going on with Michael O Leary? A lot of decisions at Ryanair that do not have his stamp on them, today's been the biggest. They say they took this decision to accommodate all their customer flying home for Christmas. In return they risk dumping their life long USP. Would Michael really do that? If so why? For such a driven, sure footed company you would have to question what's going on.

    Down a further 5% today .....(gulp)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,019 ✭✭✭ct5amr2ig1nfhp


    Time to buy a few more so :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,296 ✭✭✭scheister


    lucky john wrote: »

    Down a further 5% today .....(gulp)

    starting to recover a small bit back to 14.41 from low of 14.20 this morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    I have an order in at €14.00.

    At that price they have to be worth a punt.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 310 ✭✭LG1234


    I have an order in at €14.00.

    At that price they have to be worth a punt.

    Can't see them dropping that much. I think they'll recover up to around 15.50 soon enough


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,505 ✭✭✭JeffKenna


    Is O' Leary going to stay?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 310 ✭✭LG1234


    Bought some Ryanair this morning. Always wanted them in my portfolio and with the price drop I think they're great value at the moment. Got in at 14.70 so fingers crossed there's a decent bounce


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    JeffKenna wrote: »
    Is O' Leary going to stay?

    That might be what the markets are most worried about, there hasn't been a word out of him (that I've heard of anyway) in the last week, most unusual, have other forces within the company overruled him given his contempt for the beardies


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,296 ✭✭✭scheister


    breaking news have an article from a senior equity analyst at Merrion saying that MOL should leave in next 14 months or risk ruining what he has built


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,505 ✭✭✭JeffKenna


    Cabin crew unions being recognised now...

    I think there's more downside to the share price yet.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Ryanair €16.72 on Iseq at the moment after a good start to 2018. Decent profit already for people who bought in at €14.50-ish back in December. (Unfortunately I bought in around €15.50 .....but hey ho!!)

    Question is now, where is the share price going from here? Back to the pre strike/unionisation level of €18-€19 mark or is it now going to find a new level around €17 ?


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