Eurovision 2016

mailburner

Tinsley Glamorous Karate wrote: »

not sure but think the actual SF place positioning will be revealed just before Finals get underway on Sat at 20:00hrs.

I think it's after the finals but not 100%

4068ac1elhodqr

Think people are seeing past the politico-hype and realising UKR's song stinks, certainly can't see the karaoke version selling much. Expecting 6/7th place at best. France's song is a little uninspiring 5th place maybe.

Belgium & Bulgaria probably affecting the odds on all others. Aussies have a good radio song, but the lass just sat down until half-way.

Spain & Italy are hard to quantify, doing well on spottily/utube/itunes etc but not exposed to the masses yet on the tv-box.

4068ac1elhodqr

Would only ever touch this event as part of a multi-mixed-selection e/w and ideally at high double digits, that way a place is just fine. Too many variables, along with ingrained eastern European music tastes to consider.

mailburner

am thinking there's a big priced placed one there somewhere
my guess would be armenia or malta at 33s, may have a stab at one of these if
I can get 6s or more for the top four market

Rjd2

Lot of time for Malta if I was doing an e/w bet, not a great performance on Tuesday but plenty of rubbish about so it has a chance.

Russia probably going to off at 4/6 or so, fair enough, the most accomplished song. Australia probably overrated a little, Ukraine won't connect with the masses, as you can see on twitter. Eurovision is water cooler talk and having fun laughing at silly songs not Stalin and genocide.

dogcat

mailburner wrote: »

I think it's after the finals but not 100%

You'd be correct.

4068ac1elhodqr

def some value to be had, some large numerals floating about for e/w 4pl at end of Thurs nite.



Worth noting 50% votes based on Jury member selection criteria... They are being asked to judge:

1 vocal capacity
2 the performance on stage
3 the composition and originality of the song
4 the overall impression by the act

Glen_Quagmire

Trying to convince myself here to put a big lump on Russia. Do the clear favourites usually win the eurovision?

Starscream25

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

Trying to convince myself here to put a big lump on Russia. Do the clear favourites usually win the eurovision?

I only tapped into this 3 years ago and my take on it is that favourites after the 2 semis win.
3 years ago Denmark were favs throughout and ended up at 13/8!on the night, Azerbaijan were second with about 50 points behind.
Conchita started off at 40/1 but after the 2 semis was odds on favourite.
Last year Sweden and Russia went off at similar odds but on the final Sweden were 6/4 with Russia about 2/1.
This years contest is a bit crazy in that there is no clear rival on paper, but the public are voting so anything could happen, Russia have the most visually and audibly pleasing song so they should capitalise on that alone. My only doubt is that no one likes Russia with their questionable military and political antics, wondering would this affect them, they got booed quite a bit a few years ago after the pussy cat riot thing.
Anyway I'm going on Russia for the win, had hoped to get them sooner but only got the 11/10.

Glen_Quagmire

Thanks for the informed reply

Starscream25

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

Thanks for the informed reply

The bookies 'usually' get this right, just looking at oddschecker when Russia are 4/6 and Australia are next with 11/2, I don't think oz have a winner there, Ukraine were pants, I really liked the Belgium song tho. Usually second favourites would be hovering around 2/1 at this stage, read what you will into that but maybe hold off a few hours before deciding, Russia could bomb somewhere that people in general would be against
Probably best to throw caution to the wind with such crap odds on Russia and wait until tomorrow when a clearer overall picture will emerge, but obviously with the likelihood that Russia's odds will get a little more favouritey

Deco99

Whats the buzz on Bulgaria? I thought they were decent so 80/1 e/w? or What about 11/8 to beat out Serbia head to head?

Glen_Quagmire

Deco99 wrote:

Whats the buzz on Bulgaria? I thought they were decent so 80/1 e/w? or What about 11/8 to beat out Serbia head to head?

I personally thought the Bulgaria song was the best of the songs last night. Haven't heard any of the other songs from the previous semi final though

4068ac1elhodqr

Bulgaria is a catchy tune for sure, the price has been jumping all over the board, last night it was 126/1 e/w 4pl 1/4 with '365, unfortunately 365 don't allow it as part of an accumulator for risk reduction.

Good odds all the same considering it peaked as 3rd fav for a very short while last week and has seen 12/1 not too long ago.

Still humming their tune:
О, дай ми любовта (x3) They will never break us down
О, дай ми любовта! (x3) They will never break us down

Ruska too short to even consider, beside the price of oil/lpg is dirt cheap this year.

The running order for the Grand Final,
this has also been changing alot so not sure if it's totally confirmed as below:

1. Belgium
2. Czech Republic
3. The Netherlands
4. Azerbaijan
5. Hungary
6. Italy
7. Israel
8. Bulgaria
9. Sweden
10. Germany
11. France
12. Poland
13. Australia
14. Cyprus
15. Serbia
16. Lithuania
17. Croatia
18. Russia
19. Spain
20. Latvia
21. Ukraine
22. Malta
23. Georgia
24. Austria
25. United Kingdom
26. Armenia

The later the acts appear (green) probably the better recall available to them.
Malta may do well if the very pleasant but slightly impregnated lady does a good energetic performance.
Aussies are in the middle so may get missed during a tea break during the 3'30" extravaganza.
Also a lot of acts yet to do their thing on the screen.

4068ac1elhodqr

Hold the doors, the chap that (allegedly) dumps 'six-figure sums' on euro-pop (Gould/Sofabet) thinks Aussieland will win, currently @5 (2nd fav).
It could happen she's grand singer, but would need to do some backflips and loose the big dress. E/W certainly is strong possibility.
He also predicted Netherlands's Nashville act would do well in SF1.
If they stick her in some hot-pants, anything could happen.
note: Bulgaria sticking out at 150/1 on Skybet as e/w.

hmmm

Bulgaria at 110 excluding Russia for the win on Betfair. But 50/1 including Russia?!. 80/1 on Paddypower. Mental - that 80/1 each way at PP is the bet of the show for me (if I had a Skybet account I'd be all over the 150).

4068ac1elhodqr

Ukraine should maybe receive a caution for political messaging The 2016 rules state:

The lyrics and/or performance of the songs shall not bring the Shows, the Eurovision Song Contest as such or the EBU into disrepute. No lyrics, speeches, gestures of a political or similar nature shall be permitted during the Eurovision Song Contest.

Anyways, Bulgaria would be good choice for top 5 certainly (at evens) for top 10 position, the Jury made their votes tonight, and Latvia along with Rus, Aussie and Armenia? appear to be shorting the most, Malta & Bulgaria also shortening slightly. Aussies seem to be widely tipped to snatch it.

4068ac1elhodqr

Looks like it could be game over already, Aussieland is going short across the board, as the Jury made their votes late Friday.
The lefty media is also trying (last-minute) to tarnish Sergey with associations to fetish porn via an old public information poster image.



update: 1:40pm, WHill just dropped Aus down to 3.0.
update: 2:20pm, x8 books now dropped Aus to 3.0, Ruska heading out towards 2.0 territory.

mansize

For one that is longest odds to win Czech Republic are 16/1 for top 5

I really like this song - even before I heard an Irishman wrote it

Austria!

Anyone looking into how the new results format might present opportunities? Are there reasons to believe that certain songs are favoured by the juries and certain songs favoured by the public? If so, the songs favoured by the public could drift nicely after the jury votes are known.

Starscream25

This fetish porn malarkey has me in stitches, you couldn't write this stuff....except you could if you worked for certain pieces of paper.

4068ac1elhodqr

Seems the traders over at Sky just showed or or woke up at 3.30pm just Betway with it @126 e/w:


2.25, it'll be @1.5 by 8pm. Game over?

Starscream25

The odds have somewhat reached a plateau it would seem, id hazard a guess that Russia will go off as favourites and that the sexfetish gate has not affected sergae too much.

mailburner

Layed ukraine top 4 and 5 at 1.58 and 1.32
Well worth the risk imo for a crap song

mansize

Were France not Favourites the year Azerbaijan won? Bookies not always right

4068ac1elhodqr

@2.5 Aussie, fair to say they're more or less joint fav now.

Glen_Quagmire

Russian song was pants

Arrow in the Knee

I put 5 euro each way on Bulgaria at 80/1 a few hours ago.

Arrow in the Knee

Arrow in the Knee wrote: »

I put 5 euro each way on Bulgaria at 80/1 a few hours ago.

So did I

If they come 3rd how much would be paid out at 80/1 with 5euro e/w?

Starscream25

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So did I

If they come 3rd how much would be paid out at 80/1 with 5euro e/w

Probably in the 300ish ballpark, hope they do if for you.

twirlagig

I backed Bulgaria too... just €4 e/w
Please, please, please... lol

Glen_Quagmire

I said I'd do them earlier today and never got to the bookies

Glen_Quagmire

If they're placed at a 5er e/w at 80/1 you'll get back about 100 not 300

Starscream25

Starscream25 wrote: »

Probably in the 300ish ballpark, hope they do if for you.

Sorry about that light, the 100 would be more accurate

4068ac1elhodqr

Got 200/1 e/w Spain earlier today at 4pm with Skybet's crap website, just seen it at 18/1.

mailburner

Shocked at Russia but relieved bout Australia

Got the Ukraine wrong bigtime
Hopefully a few got the ozzies at a nice price

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

Shocked at Russia but relieved bout Australia

Got the Ukraine wrong bigtime
Hopefully a few got the ozzies at a nice price

Sh1te...****e
Thought I had it

Glen_Quagmire

How many places were the bookies paying out for?

CorkColin

Am I the only one to not believe that song won it ?? Australia were 1/33 In play at one stage and all !

Starscream25

I blame the new voting system

Glen_Quagmire

CorkColin wrote:

Am I the only one to not believe that song won it ?? Australia were 1/33 In play at one stage and all !

1/50 I seen them at

twirlagig

Bulgaria 4th .... backed them at 80/1 for €4 e/w.... do I win anything? ??

Rjd2

The state of some of the posts writing off Ukraine here, clowns. :pac:

(I know, I know:o)

Starscream25

This new voting thing renders any background checks and what's happening in the media almost irrelevant now, so let me get this right, half the votes are going to a bunch of lads in a room who decided what the best song is, so .0000000000000001% of the population have 50% impact on the overall result? Please tell me I'm wrong.

Glen_Quagmire

The eurovision is 90% politics 10% music

hmmm

Starscream25 wrote: »

This new voting thing renders any background checks and what's happening in the media almost irrelevant now, so let me get this right, half the votes are going to a bunch of lads in a room who decided what the best song is, so .0000000000000001% of the population have 50% impact on the overall result? Please tell me I'm wrong.

Apparently they are "professional juries". Which is how the UK jury gave Georgia 12 points. FFS I don't know how to bet on this in future, you might as well toss a coin.

mailburner

Thought it was same as other years which would have been great

Starscream25

hmmm wrote: »

Apparently they are "professional juries". Which is how the UK jury gave Georgia 12 points. FFS I don't know how to bet on this in future, you might as well toss a coin.

There's no transparency there, as quagmire said, it's 90% politics, even tho Russia won the public vote. Oh well, Murphys law, such is life etc

So much for democracy

Arrow in the Knee

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

How many places were the bookies paying out for?

1/5 odds 1,2,3,4 places

4068ac1elhodqr

Bulgaria was great e/w selection for the 4th place.
Shame it was won through politics and not music

Hope backers of Aussie & Ruska went e/w.

The other surprise was that Malta & Latvia didn't fair better,
Spain also, lot of books had latecomers Spain up at 3rd place about 4hrs ago
was 7/1 enhanced with W'Hill.