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Eurovision 2016

  • 03-04-2016 9:28pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    have listened to all the entries, some many times

    I can't get away from the russian entry and have backed it at 3.2 a few days back
    best I'm seeing now is 15/8
    think it'll be near evens on the day, song is quite catchy and strikes me as the most likely winner
    have a saver on the australian song at 15.5, very good song but it's hard to see them getting the points required

    the list is here for anyone wanting to throw away a couple of hours


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUQp3405lNI&list=PL_8Ls-dzQCjm1dFZUhoVdu2a5VrQZDILo&index=34


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Russia at 2.88 is super short, even with 4pl.
    Enhanced Win Only may offer more value.
    If its catchy and sticks, definitely a good sign.

    Could only bear a condensed mp3 file
    (15 secs per chorus of each x40 circa),
    still that's 10mins you wont get back.

    One oddity that sticks out is via the folks in
    Valetta (future Capital of Culture 2018, btw).
    They usually have a price of 150+, today it's low as 11,
    must be something special...

    What about a summer novelty fest accumulator of
    Russia (May14) x Brexit (June21) ?

    I.e. 2.88 x 3 = 8.64
    note: That 2.88 will be higher when enhanced markets become available.
    note: Novelty accumulators are only available with certain books.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Managed to skip quickly through these x40,
    France & Ruska to be in the top 6 perhaps, but over-rated.
    Latvia is interesting - might make the top 5 perhaps.
    Sweden has a chance, but a structurally weak song.
    Changed the mind on Maltese, top 10 though maybe.

    There are a few stinkers also that may get nil points.

    But think the actual winner (or at least 1/4 placed within the top 4)
    will be a currently underestimated contender at well over 100/1.

    Any guesses to who I'm thinking of?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    Managed to skip quickly through these x40,
    France & Ruska to be in the top 6 perhaps, but over-rated.
    Latvia is interesting - might make the top 5 perhaps.
    Sweden has a chance, but a structurally weak song.
    Changed the mind on Maltese, top 10 though maybe.

    There are a few stinkers also that may get nil points.

    But think the actual winner (or at least 1/4 placed within the top 4)
    will be a currently underestimated contender at well over 100/1.

    Any guesses to who I'm thinking of?

    romania?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    mailburner wrote: »
    romania?

    Interesting... but no, my review for Romania went thus:
    Romania: Theatrical, interesting and dramatic vocals, but lacking lyrical dynamics & tonal variety. Would make a super euro-metal group.
    Chances:mid.
    Position estimate
    : top 20 (from 40)
    Odds:
    250/1.
    Romania might make the upper half, certainly better than half of the others, not sure if there is even a market for top-half contenders.

    Will put up the hot wildcard* selection at 23:00hrs. Just loading it on as a wildcard selection on the end of an array of (low stake but high multiplication)
    'year-long 5 from 7 folds (e/w)'. To give a few bookies whom have it priced x3 higher than some others a bit of a kicking, even if it just places.

    With quickly ascending pentatonics, early pre+post chorus euphorics and a very, very clever video, it could be regarded as somewhat a eurovision masterclass production.

    Separately, have changed the mind again on Malta (currently 5th fav), could do very well indeed. Latvia also sounds great on my set of bi-amped sub-45Hz bass bins. Both will likely land up in top 5.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Irlande x151 with SkyBet, Coral & BetfairSports. 4pl 1/4ew. x323 for win enhanced BF.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    Irlande x151 with SkyBet, Coral & BetfairSports. 4pl 1/4ew. x323 for win enhanced BF.

    I'm glad I didn't try to guess that one :D

    not even a good song, little chance of top ten if it even qualifies imo
    not surprised the irish firms are shortest at 50s either but that price is scandalous

    the polish entry I like also but the chances of that kind of song winning ahead of the likes of the russian one are pretty slim


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭ the groutch


    can't see Ireland ever being competitive in Eurovision again.
    with phone votes involved, the competition heavily favors those within a voting "block", eg. Scandanavia, Balkans, Post-Soviets, etc


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Bias is certainly something to look out for, and something Latvia & Ruskies may gain from. France may receive additional votes above normal.

    As annoyingly useless thick fingered N'Byrne is on the radio, Ireland's does entry has a few things going for it:

    No chance of dropped microphones, stage nerves or missing out on audience interactions, many countries will be using unknowns.
    Westlife were huge in Sweden, where this year’s competition takes place between May 10-14th, so expect good live crowd support.
    Co-writer (Hector) is a big pop-music player having written 7 of Westlife’s number-1 hits, also written for Nicki Minaj and One Direction.
    Co-writer (Hardiman) is a vet Irish composer, who scored Michael Flatley’s Lord of the Dance and Feet of Flames.
    Live event guidance: Tim Byrne, former Creative Director of Simon Cowell’s company Syco Music (xfactor/bgt).
    Live event guidance: Lee Lodge an executive producer of the 2015 MTV Video Music Awards.
    The video itself lists all the pro-action verbs cleverly in the background or as 'overlay supers' for non-native speakers to recall.
    They lyrics are short, snappy and anglo-saxon based (straight from an advertising copyrwiter's handbook).
    The verse sounds like a chorus, the chorus sounds like a super-chorus, the bridge at 2:10 sounds also like a chorus, coda at 2:40 also chorus-like, wraps up in less than 3mins of pop tunage. Building from Gminor into, to 4-chord Major sequence, easy to learn on guitar.

    Forecast:
    1. Malta
    2. Ireland
    3. Russia
    4. Latvia
    5. Italy
    5. Spain
    6. France
    7. Norway
    8. Germany
    9. Bulgaria
    10. Australia

    Bottom of the pile:
    Estonia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Armenia, Bosnia, Cyprus, Israel, Hungary, Serbia, San Marnio, Greece+Montenegro+Cyprus (three good tunes, but totally wrong environment)


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    if you seriously think ireland can finish ahead of russia then you need help...no offence mate
    if you gave nicky byrne the russian song we'd probably do well to make top five

    few of those things mentioned above will get us many more votes, you just can't make a case for us sadly the way the voting has gone
    I would back russia with an 80 pts start over us


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Russia's one certainly is strong, will work well live. Find the marching beat repetitive and lacks dynamic range, becomes forgettable quickly.

    Ireland's works from a precise complex formula (not obvious at first) it will either sink or swim as the voting has even more complex contextual factors. A random wildcard 150/1 selection featuring as part of low-stake fourfold, along with 5 other year-long bankers (4 from 6 ew) is low-risk territory anyway.

    Malta & Latvia* (possible max points from *neighbours: Lithuania, Russia, Estonia, Belarus) both around 20/1 will almost certainly place up in the top 5.

    There are some real stinkers, 15 entries can be dismissed pre-tournament.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner



    Ireland's works from a precise complex formula (not obvious at first) it will sink

    Agree with that :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    or swim :)

    However Malta's may well walk across the water if they take out some of those extraneous drum-loop samples.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Netherlands is going short across on OC, both Lb & 365 at 27/1, Traders be smoking - that tune be straight out of Nashville.

    With only 1 month to, any value prices will be gone within within the next fortnight.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭ the groutch


    steady support for France, don't see the 11/2 lasting much longer.
    can definitely see there being a good few sympathy votes going their way.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    The 6.5 (11/2) for France is certainly going short, fast.
    If they receive average of 6 points (likely - just from widespread token voting and a few 10/12 pts) it could put them in the top5.

    Thing is, it's not a great song, a repetitive hand-clappy 2:4 beat best suited as a backing track/video for a 'Taekwondo Kid 4' type movie.
    Something like Bulgaria's is much more catchy. Bulgaria's bass hook line could be dropped in most clubs without m/any complaints.

    An interesting market is Ire vs UK (head-to-head), paying 2.25 for Ire to win. The UK's tune has a whiff of desperation about it.
    It sounds like the false optimism of in-bus audio of a '#StrongerIn campaign bus' as it passes by the rainy streets of closing steel factories.

    Early trend chart from the official euro site:

    officialsiteearlytrends.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    steady support for France, don't see the 11/2 lasting much longer.
    can definitely see there being a good few sympathy votes going their way.

    never thought of this and it has me worried about my russian bet
    5/2 france now with a lot of firms, it's going to go off favourite at this rate


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Bias is certainly something to look out for, and something Latvia & Ruskies may gain from. France may receive additional votes above normal.

    Likely but it's still a weak tune compared to many others inc. Rus. Certainly going short but perhaps in reality just a false positive. Looking at previous top3/winners, they received many 10/12pts, rather than just many token 4,5,or 6pts.

    Also going a bit short today, and real growers of Australia*, Malta, Latvia & Bulgaria. Italy isn't bad, but makes the mistake of staying native up until 2:00.

    Czech is very anthemic and has high odds variance, anything from 29-67. Very short on the exchanges for top 5/10 positions.

    Screen_Shot_2016_04_20_at_00_29_31.png

    * Worth noting if Aussie win, the gig would still be held in Europa, so any expectations of a media jolly, catching rays out on the GoldCoast is a non-runner.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Forecast v2.0, updated 25 Apr:

    1. Malta
    2. Ireland
    3. Russia
    4. Latvia
    5. Italy Bulgaria^
    5. Spain
    6. France
    7. Norway
    8. Germany
    9. Bulgaria Italy
    10. Australia


    Think this Bulgaria tune is very catchy, certainly might make the top5, ^updated the original forecast as above.

    bulg_giphy.gif
    Price is also going short for it, and is receiving a lot of positive media.

    89pc.png

    x19.png

    Malta has very good chance of top3 and the win, bearing in mind they will host the 'Junior EV' in 2016, so may save a few pennies from the pot to combine events.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Seems that Bulgaria one is a real grower, some places put it as high as 3rd, as low as x12 in some cases.
    Skybet & WH have halved Bulgaria's odds within 3days. E/w value now going or gone.

    bulg_2016_04_28.png

    Italy also going short, decent tune also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    ukraine as short as 9/2 now
    I wouldn't have touched it at 50s before this, bad song imo


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    mailburner wrote: »
    ukraine as short as 9/2 now
    I wouldn't have touched it at 50s before this, bad song imo

    100% agree, it's pure toilet :pac:.

    Looks like something fishy going on from the suits, perhaps to sway and rub against the Ruska entry.

    UKR Has a strong whiff to desperation to it, that can only be matched with Serbia's entry. Similar to Jessie'J (ex-pop singer) desperately pimping her wailing voice during any live stage performance she ever done.

    Would rather listen to mating cats rubbing chalk on blackboards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 814 ✭✭✭ dogcat


    Ukraine is amazing and heartfelt in my opinion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    dogcat wrote: »
    Ukraine is amazing and heartfelt in my opinion.

    :D :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,424 ✭✭✭✭ mailburner


    ukraine can be layed at 1.94 for three places
    I really want to do my nuts on that but I haven't the nuts as anything can happen in this competition
    It can't possibly even place can it?

    The money for a song in this iirc is usually significant enough and whilst it can't possibly beat the russian song imo it may sneak a place


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Indeed that amazing and heartfelt 'torturous wailing' from UKR's 'clearly possessed' singer should have never made it near an engineer's mixing desk let alone output as final flac product via Protools by anyone with credibility.

    The very opening lines drag on about killing and death. Cheer up lassie, you have a free day out at Abbaland, crack open the champers and sure have a laugh-along listening to San Marino's effort.

    I agree stranger things have happened with this lefty-politico-pop-fest. It defies all reasonable logic to be ranked 2nd currently. But with the 'undisclosed Jurors' factor it may be too risky item to lay out the of the top3.

    Prefer instead e/w 4pl and the safe 'Top15' market on the exchange, plenty at 2.0+ that will be up there.

    Malta & Chez should do well SF1 tommorow, perhaps in top3 (3.3 & 3.7)
    Armenia's set of lungs is maybe the only risk to them outside of obvious Ruska,
    but Armenia has :50 of nothingness at the start of their 2:50 tune.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,584 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    As a massive lefty I like the Ukraine song somewhat:p

    However, I couldn't back it with stolen money, its just not a Eurovision song really, the people who watch and vote Eurovision want catchy songs ideally with some novelty value e.g Lordi, tranvestite who won in 2014, this is neither.

    This I just don't see connecting with the masses whatsoever, lefties :o and those who might be forced to watch the eurovision and hipsters are not enough to get it over the line.

    Also only 1.3 million views on this YT, whether that is relevant or not, its somewhat concerning for its backers when most of the favs have got 3 million plus,(Russia 9 million views) it doesn't really suggest that the masses are particularly interested.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,069 ✭✭✭ markc91


    Seems that Bulgaria one is a real grower, some places put it as high as 3rd, as low as x12 in some cases.
    Skybet & WH have halved Bulgaria's odds within 3days. E/w value now going or gone.

    bulg_2016_04_28.png

    Italy also going short, decent tune also.

    Still like Bulgaria? 80/1 on betway


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    markc91 wrote: »
    Still like Bulgaria? 80/1 on betway

    Love it, have it already e/w, among others. Great value.

    Ranked 4th (by the 3336 OGAE members), so ideally should return 20/1 if it lands on the 4th position (or higher).

    Latvia & Czech also similarly offering good value digits to place, or perhaps better to use safer options through the other top 5/10/15 positions on the exchanges.

    Italy should also do well, utube/vimeo data trackers showing it the most popular video, over 15m views. Perhaps it will land 5th or 6th, as indicated also by OGAE. These folks also rightly put UKR outside the top 8.

    Interestingly Ire was one of only 5 countries to so far appear on Ruksa iTunes, so hopefully a few points to arriving from Moscow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Tinsley Glamorous Karate


    Perhaps this will be one of the most accurate indices, ...well outside of the Juror interference:

    officialfanbase.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,584 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Don't see Ukraine their either.

    Again I don't have an issue with the song and won't be bothered if it wins, but I still haven't seen anything that suggests that this will click with the masses on the night.

    Its not really water cooler type chat is it?


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