Aurora prospects - 2016.

joujoujou

Well, just missed one last night.

https://twitter.com/ChrisIbbotson11/status/706800016585838592

https://twitter.com/TamMullen/status/706765704620593152

Iancar29

Yeah it was an amazing display . Saw it from my attic window here in Finglas around half 7 then called my mate to come pick me up to head to the Hill of Tara straight away.

Heres the Timelapse:cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA832tcAPLY

mickger844posts

Ian, it seems in the last year or so there have been a lot more opportunities to see the Aurora and further south than we ever thought imaginable. Is this a trend that looks like continuing or is it just a particular active time for the sun?

Gonzo

so annoyed I missed this last night, we had a clear sky here all evening as well.

joujoujou

mickger844posts wrote: »

[...] Is this a trend that looks like continuing or is it just a particular active time for the sun?

Periodical (more/less) thing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24

Wanderer78

What did kp get to last night?

PukkaStukka

Gonzo wrote: »

so annoyed I missed this last night, we had a clear sky here all evening as well.

Yep, same here. A chap I work with viewed it from county Meath last night and described it as amazing

nacho libre

mickger844posts wrote: »

Ian, it seems in the last year or so there have been a lot more opportunities to see the Aurora and further south than we ever thought imaginable. Is this a trend that looks like continuing or is it just a particular active time for the sun?

I thought the sun's solar output was suppose to be very weak even though we are in a solar maximum cycle, obviously not if we are seeing the Aurora this far south

Captain Chaos

It is very weak, the weakest it's been in decades but that does not stop direct hits from big flares the odd time.

WindmillWarrior

Will there be any possibility of seeing anything tonight do we know??

mickmackey1

Iancar29 wrote: »

to head to the Hill of Tara

And there's a comment on your FB page from Tara Hill! :cool:

Chris_5339762

I'm southside of Dublin (Rathfarnham) so really not a hope of seeing anything with the city lights in the way. Whats a good viewing spot thats relatively quick to get to on a weeknight? Hill of Tara looks quite good, anyone got any other tips?

Iancar29

mickger844posts wrote: »

Ian, it seems in the last year or so there have been a lot more opportunities to see the Aurora and further south than we ever thought imaginable. Is this a trend that looks like continuing or is it just a particular active time for the sun?

Its just the last year or 2 has been solar maximum, its a period of 13 years. So it will die off again from next year onwards. Social networks has increased awareness of events though massively too.

Wanderer78 wrote: »

What did kp get to last night?

6 , but its not always just the KP you need to look at, the BZ was way south, -13 for a time.

nacho libre wrote: »

I thought the sun's solar output was suppose to be very weak even though we are in a solar maximum cycle, obviously not if we are seeing the Aurora this far south

This solar cycle has been very weak, in terms of sunspots. This storm was mainly caused by a coronal hole though, not a flaring sunspot.

WindmillWarrior wrote: »

Will there be any possibility of seeing anything tonight do we know??

No, storm is dying off now and its a cloud fest out there.

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

I'm southside of Dublin (Rathfarnham) so really not a hope of seeing anything with the city lights in the way. Whats a good viewing spot thats relatively quick to get to on a weeknight? Hill of Tara looks quite good, anyone got any other tips?

Basically somewhere away from the glare of the city. Even though i spotted them from finglas it was nothing special without my camera. Howth summit would be a decent spot id imagine .

MJohnston

I was surprised (and really annoyed) by how little advance notice there was for this, or even notice during the event itself! Woke up the next morning to find lots of glorious photos and I didn't even know to poke my head out and check

Wanderer78

MJohnston wrote:

I was surprised (and really annoyed) by how little advance notice there was for this, or even notice during the event itself! Woke up the next morning to find lots of glorious photos and I didn't even know to poke my head out and check

Got an alert email before the event and forgot about it

MJohnston

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Got an alert email before the event and forgot about it

Not annoyed at you, or boards I mean ha

I just mean, Facebook and Twitter are full of trending topics about vacuous celebrity ****e, but they couldn't spare a moment for this!

mickmackey1

MJohnston wrote: »

I was surprised (and really annoyed) by how little advance notice there was for this, or even notice during the event itself! Woke up the next morning to find lots of glorious photos and I didn't even know to poke my head out and check

There are various sites which give advance warning, www.calsky.com for instance. Just enter your location details and they'll send an alert for aurorae, or other events.

Wanderer78

MJohnston wrote:

I just mean, Facebook and Twitter are full of trending topics about vacuous celebrity ****e, but they couldn't spare a moment for this!

Another good reason not to have such accounts. Drama queen sites particularly facebook

Iancar29

Next aurora potential is tomorrow night ( probably too late to view from Ireland ) or Wednesday . Hard to tell how strong its gonna be but a similar display to last week is not out of the question.

blackbird99

aurora visible now on this webcam from the shetlands http://www.shetland.org/60n/webcams/cliff-cam-3

Discodog

I had to laugh at this email from Aurora watch :pac:


Dear AuroraWatch UK subscriber,

We apologise for the earlier false alert (issued 13:25 UTC today) which was caused by a lawnmower creating a local disturbance at our Lancaster site. For more information please see
http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/aurorawatchuk/2016/08/23/red-alert-cancelled/

The AuroraWatch UK team

pedigree 6

Discodog wrote: »

I had to laugh at this email from Aurora watch :pac:


Dear AuroraWatch UK subscriber,

We apologise for the earlier false alert (issued 13:25 UTC today) which was caused by a lawnmower creating a local disturbance at our Lancaster site. For more information please see
http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/aurorawatchuk/2016/08/23/red-alert-cancelled/

The AuroraWatch UK team

Ha the best ever.
Those damn lawnmowers and their leaky electrical discharges.:D

The aurora does look to be fairly strong at the moment though just north of Scotland.

pedigree 6

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.png

Edit: It was a livelink to site. Not sure if allowed to do that.
So I reduced it back to a clickable link instead.

PixelTrawler

Reports of Aurora from all over Scotland, Northern Ireland and North of England.
Where is a good spot north of Dublin to try see them? I think Ive seen pictures from north of the airport that has good view north and relatively dark. The next few nights could be good.

Im just back from Iceland and although I got 2 reasonable nights, the last 10 days were cloudy. And typical theres great displays there tonight.

KP7 likely soon.

mickmackey1

Didn't see any action and the clouds are building up now.

Hal1

Currently over 700km/s with some southerly pointing bz.

September 27, 2016 @ 19:10 UTC

Geomagnetic Storm Warning
As expected, minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming is being observed at higher latitudes. An increased solar wind speed currently near 600 km/s is contributing to the storm. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visible aurora tonight as periods of storming will remain possible.

Rougies

This is pretty cool. Hope they got a good show!

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/nature_and_travel/2016/09/28/reykjavik_to_switch_off_street_lights_for_northern_/

Longboard

A lot of activity at the moment. Fingers crossed for clear skies.

Current KP 7.5 & BZ -19.5

JCX BXC

When will it be viewable?

Comhrá

Carnacalla wrote: »

When will it be viewable?

Nothing certain but the best prospect is after midnight, depending, of course, on cloud cover and the moon setting (3.50am,I believe)

http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/

mickmackey1

Wow, just got an 'extreme storm' alert. KP forecast to be the maximum, 9 :eek:

Wanderer78

mickmackey1 wrote: »

Wow, just got an 'extreme storm' alert. KP forecast to be the maximum, 9 :eek:

im only getting a 7, where you getting that?

mickmackey1

Wanderer78 wrote: »

im only getting a 7, where you getting that?

CalSky.

Comhrá

Had a look outside and though it's fairly cloudy, a few clear slots and no sign of anything unusual. I'll wait up till around 12.30 then bed if there's nothing happening.

Wanderer78

Any sightings?

mickmackey1

I looked out several times on a generally clear night but saw no display. The near-full moon wasn't helping.

Iancar29

Aurora was a no show last night guys. The BZ was way south for most of the night which led to us all believing it will easily overpower the bright full moon. However, the solar wind speed wasn't that great, having not gone past 400km/s . However, we did get to watch a nice thunderstorm out in the Irish sea flash away throughout the night

Hal1

Next time!

PixelTrawler

Theres a shot from Howth on twitter. A sliver of green to a dslr. Judging by the noise in the shot it was taken at very high ISO. Doubt it was visible to the naked eye. They dont list the time it was taken.

https://twitter.com/PictureIreland

EDIT, just spotted it was a retweet from another person. He said it was taken at midnight.

Discodog

Just got a red alert from aurora watch

mickmackey1

Yep... 100% cloud cover here.

JCX BXC

mickmackey1 wrote: »

Yep... 100% cloud cover here.

Same here.

Hal1

Possible G3 storm forecast, kp7. Solar wind above 700km/s and increasing but bz component needs to point southwards which it's not at the moment. Still might be an opportunity over the next few nights.

Wanderer78

kp values rising again there. currently 5 but forecast to be 7 soon

Comhrá

Totally overcast here in Limerick as usual :mad:

joujoujou

Looks nice.

Hal1

That looks PH'd I can tell from the pixels...

joujoujou

Nothing seen last night.

Another chance tonight, hopefully.

joujoujou

Am I the only one feeling NOAA's forecasts are a bit optimistic in terms of viewing lines?

tylercollins

You can't really go with the Aurora Oval as it's just a forecast based on data and 99% of the time it's not really accurate.

Your best watching the stackplots and solar data to predict if anything is going to happen and how powerful it's going to be.