March 2016 Boards forecast contest (enter by 0300h Tuesday 1st March)

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT at 4.3 deg C

PRC is 124%

SUN at 105% (-1 hr for my later calc)

MAX nothing worth noting and MIN -3.0

pauldry

sryanbruen wrote: »

For anybody here, this is Grange in Sligo ^, not my Grange :rolleyes::o:pac:. Just thought I'd say that. My lowest minimum so far this March has been -2.4c.

Is the grange on met eireann not your grange sryan? Our grange is beside the sea and would rarely get near -2.9c

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Is the grange on met eireann not your grange sryan? Our grange is beside the sea and would rarely get near -2.9c

No and I don't know of any other place in Ireland called Grange.

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

No and I don't know of any other place in Ireland called Grange.

There are rather a lot of them!

pauldry

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

There are rather a lot of them!

I see a Grange in Tipp perhaps that one

On topic IMT is on the rise to 5 or 6 in a week or two.

However globally theres a developing cold pool to the North of Russia coming this way , may only reach Norway but if it reaches here expect lower IMT again.

M.T. Cranium

When they report Grange on Met E they mean Dunsany.

pauldry

I knew MT would have the answer...

P.s theres also a Grange in limerick

Is there one in every county??:p

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

When they report Grange on Met E they mean Dunsany.

Thank you for confirming my mistake

Schadenfreudia

pauldry wrote: »

Is there one in every county??:p

Not unlikely....

M.T. Cranium

Well I was confused by it, one day I noticed a report from "Grange" and didn't know it was Dunsany, so I found out the location of half a dozen places with that name, probably not the entire list. The biggest one seems to be a village that Pauldry must know, it's in north Sligo near Ben Bulben. But I think I found a few others. One was somewhere in Laois or Kildare. Must be like Springfield on this side of the ocean. More than half of all American states have one. Three or four are fairly big, most are quite small.

sryanbruen

Shannon Airport recorded a max. of 15.0c yesterday.

pauldry

So the Grange in Limerick mustv been warm too!!:rolleyes:

sryanbruen

I guess I'll get 0 points for everything on this month :pac:. I was so wrong:

A wet, windy, cold and very dull March. But looking like:

A relatively dry, cool and sunny March.

Rikand

sryanbruen wrote: »

Shannon Airport recorded a max. of 15.0c yesterday.

Ah come on Shannon! You can do better than that

sryanbruen

Shannon Airport's 15.0c remains the highest with no beaters yesterday.

Tae laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

Shannon Airport's 15.0c remains the highest with no beaters yesterday.

Or yesterday.
St. Patrick's Day looking temperate.

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Or yesterday.
St. Patrick's Day looking temperate.

Belmullet equalized Shannon

M.T. Cranium

Update after two weeks ...

IMT at 6.3 C (6.26) after a week at 8.2 C.

PRC has fallen off to 90% as this week averaged only 56% of normal.

SUN has improved very slightly to 106%, the past two days brought the week back up to 107% (another -1 for my detailed calculation, total of -2).

The MAX is 15.0 and the MIN is -3.0 (excluding today).

pauldry

Belmullet got 15.5c today but Newport wasnt far behind.

That could be it till maybe the last week 7 to 13c until March 24th

Tae laidir

Newport overtook at 16.1.
Today starting cool.

pauldry

Belmullet won todays temp

12.1c to 12.5c provisionally

Maybe some of ye know the exact.

Think Newport only got 11c

Markree just under 11c

Finner just over 11c

Shannon near 12c

Mace Head 11c

Dont know how accurate but these are values I saw. Consensus was 11 to 12c so id say all got points

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Belmullet won todays temp

12.1c to 12.5c provisionally

Maybe some of ye know the exact.

Think Newport only got 11c

Markree just under 11c

Finner just over 11c

Shannon near 12c

Mace Head 11c

Dont know how accurate but these are values I saw. Consensus was 11 to 12c so id say all got points

But nobody guessed it would be Belmullet, oops :P:pac:

M.T. Cranium

Early morning reading of -4.9 C at 0600h at Mullingar. Dublin was down to -4 around 0400h.

If Belmullet is the location of yesterday's max, then I will give one point to anyone who guessed a location in Connacht or who guessed the location of the second highest temperature if that's not in Connacht (I suspect it may be Newport). There won't be any super-bonus though.

Points for the temperature will go in groups of three from eight down to one, but I suspect a number of ties which usually results in somewhat higher points overall, and I will smooth the scores so there aren't any strange 3-point differentials for 0.2 C gradations. In fact I will just give everyone a participation ribbon (hope you're not reduced to that yet).

My current estimates for finishing values are IMT 6.5, PRC 80% and SUN 115% based on a few more sunny, dry days then some cloud and rain, not overly heavy perhaps. The percentage is going to be down around 70% of normal rainfall after third week, then it will drift back up a bit.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

My current estimates for finishing values are IMT 6.5, PRC 80% and SUN 115%

Or perhaps PRC 80% and SUN 120%!

Yesterday's outcomes
12.5 Belmullet
10.9 Malin
10.7 Finner and Valentia.

So no super bonus for Connaught?

M.T. Cranium

The three closest predictions of the maximum for the lovely eight points were 12.4 from (uncanny) Mickger844posts, then 12.3 from (always there or thereabouts) Sunflower3 and a herd-culling 12.9 from 200motels who made my life easier as about half the field chose 12.0 or 13.0. All those suspects will have seven points, there appear to be five humans and the two bots who don't take points away from humans, so that means the 13.1 and 11.9 guesses will squeak in at six points. As there are 25 human forecasts, I will reset the groups of three after those and work down to the one point for three most adrift although really nobody went berserk on this one (all in the range 10-16).

I think it would be fair to give one of the two location points to all the Vals and to my inspired guess of Newport, on first glance I did not notice any Donegal or Connacht guesses otherwise.

Superbonus only happens when somebody has maximum points in both categories or at least second highest score in both, possibly some of the Vals will get an extra point but nobody will qualify for two. (more thought goes into this than the entire Donald Trump campaign to date, or so I'm saying)

Yes, sunshine could run up the score before being taken off in the second half.

pauldry

Hey MT ogimet has mullingar at -5.1c by 6am could be lower min yet. Also Dunsany at -4c at 7am so who knows

Tae laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Hey MT ogimet has mullingar at -5.1c by 6am could be lower min yet. Also Dunsany at -4c at 7am so who knows

Mullingar -5.1 confirmed

sryanbruen

So wait? -5.1c at Mullingar. That's the exact same minimum temperature that I predicted, WHAT?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98855297&postcount=2

sryanbruen

So December has a maximum higher than March's? That's Ireland for ya :rolleyes:

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

So December has a maximum higher than March's? That's Ireland for ya :rolleyes:

Could have a max higher than April the way our Spring temperatures have been going the past decade!