March 2016 Boards forecast contest (enter by 0300h Tuesday 1st March)

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for the usual five stations, March 1981-2010 normal value is 7.0 C.

2. Predict the MAX temp for any station.

3. Predict the MIN temp for any station.

4. Predict the precipitation (PRC) as percentage of normal for the eleven stations normally used.

5. Predict the sunshine (SUN) as percentage of normal for the six stations normally used.

6. BONUS -- Predict the highest temperature for the 17th at any station (8 pts) with the location (2 pts), superbonus available for top scores.

Late penalties in this new more rigorous time frame start at 0300h on Tuesday 1st of March, and there will be 1% reduction for every 2h late in the first 36h then 1% for every additional hour to 60h (which is 1500h 3rd) after which it goes to 2% per additional hour late.

sample penalties: 1300h 1st ... 5% ___ 1300h 2nd ... 17%

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_______ 5.9 __ 14.2 __ -5.1 __ 120 __ 72 ____ 11.2 - Sherkin Island

200motels

200motels ______________6.5 __ 16.2 __ -4.3 __ 105 __ 89 ____ 12.9 - Sherkin Island

Rikand

Rikand ____ 7.0 ____ 17.0 ____ -4.0 ____ 110 ______ 100 ______ 14.0 Valentia


Lets go for a warm month. No more negativity

Bsal

Bsal ____ 6.8 ____ 15.0 ____ -4.8 ____ 95 ______ 103 ______ 10.0 Valentia

Elmer Blooker

4.4c

15.7c

-5.9c

50%

140%

12c Sherkin.

pauldry

Pauldry____ 7.4 ____ 18.1 ____ -3.8 ____ 98 ______ 121 ______ 13.0 Valentia

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _____ 6.3 __ 17.2 __ --5.5 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 13.2 Newport

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____ 6.5 __ 16.9 __ -4.9 __ 088 __ 100 ___ 12.3 Valentia

omicron

omicron____ 6.5____ 16.5 ____ -4.0 ____ 95______ 100 ______ 12.0 Sherkin

dasa29

dasa29 _____ 6.5 __ 17.0 __ --5.0 __ 110 __ 105 ___ 16.5 mullingar

Lumi

Lumi _____ 6.2 __ 16.0 __ -5.0 __ 90 __ 115 ___ 13.5 Valentia

mickger844posts

Mickger844posts 6.2, 15.4, -5.1, 85, 110, 12.4 Sherkin

rameire

Rameire _____ 6.6 __ 15.7 __ -4.1 __ 101 __ 098 ___ 12.0 Phoenix Park

Joe Public

Joe Public ____ 5.7 ____ 14.9 ____ -4.9 ____ 109 ____ 100 ____ 11.9 Sherkin

dacogawa

Dacogawa _____ 6.0 __ 16.2 __ -4.8 __ 85 __ 110 ___ 13.1 Valentia

lostinashford

Lostinashford ____ 6.7 ____ 16.5 ____ -4.0 ____ 105 ______ 112 ______ 16.0 Phoenix Park

waterways

waterways _____ 6.7 __ 16.8 __ -3.5 __ 100 __ 105 ___ 13.2 Shannon

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 6.4 __ 15.7 __ -6.0 __ 88 __ 109 ____ 11.4 - Shannon

Jpmarn

Jpmarn___ 7.8__ 16.8__ -3.3__ 95__ 120 ___ 14.4 Shannon

kindredspirit

6.8.....17.....-4.5.....95.....80.....12.....Valentia.

mrskinner

Skinner ....6.8.....15.5..... -4.0.........100......100.....12.0 Sherkin

DOCARCH

DOCARCH____ 6.8 ____ 16.8 ____ -4.1 ____102 ______ 108 ______ 14.0 Casement

John mac

_John mac___ 7.5 __ 17.0 __ --3.0 __ 110 __ 105 ___ 14.5 mullingar

Out of the country at the moment so hard to predict (28° right now where I am ) 😀

jd

jd___ 7.3 __ 17.4 __ -3.1 __ 116 __ 104 ___ 15.9 Sherkin

Schadenfreudia

:eek: - nearly forgot!

Schad_____ 6.4 __ 17.5 __ -5.0 __ 110 __ 100 ___ 14.1 Casement

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for March 2016

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 17th __ loc'n

Jpmarn ___________ 7.8 _ 16.8 _ --3.3 _ 095 _ 120 ___ 14.4 __ Shannon
John mac ___ (-3) __ 7.5 _ 17.0 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.5 __ Mullingar
Pauldry ___________ 7.4 _ 18.1 _ --3.8 _ 098 _ 121 ___ 13.0 __ Valentia
jd_________ (-3) ___7.3 _ 17.4 _ --3.1 _ 116 _ 104 ___ 15.9 __ Sherkin Island
Rikand ____________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --4.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.0 __ Valentia

Normal ___________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 __ Shannon

kindredspirit (-1) ___ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ --4.5 _ 095 _ 080 ___ 12.0 __ Valentia
DOCARCH __ (-2) ___ 6.8 _ 16.8 _ --4.1 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 14.0 __ Casement
MrSkinner __ (-1) ___ 6.8 _ 15.5 _ --4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin Island
Bsal ______________ 6.8 _ 15.0 _ --4.8 _ 095 _ 103 ___ 10.0 __ Valentia
waterways _________ 6.7 _ 16.8 _ --3.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 13.2 __ Shannon
Lostinashford _______6.7 _ 16.5 _ --4.0 _ 105 _ 112 ___ 16.0 __ Phoenix Park
Rameire ___________6.6 _ 15.7 _ --4.1 _ 101 _ 098 ___ 12.0 __ Phoenix Park
dasa29 ____________6.5 _ 17.0 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.5 __ Mullingar

Con Sensus ________ 6.5 _ 16.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 13.0 __ Sherkin or Val

Sunflower3 ________ 6.5 _ 16.9 _ --4.9 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 12.3 __ Valentia
omicron ___________6.5 _ 16.5 _ --4.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin Island
200motels _________6.5 _ 16.2 _ --4.3 _ 105 _ 089 ___ 12.9 __ Sherkin Island
Schadenfreudia (-5) _ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.1 __ Casement
Tae laidir __________6.4 _ 15.7 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 11.4 __ Shannon
M.T. Cranium ______ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ --5.5 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 13.2 __ Newport
Lumi _____________ 6.2 _ 16.0 _ --5.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 13.5 __ Valentia
Mickger844posts ____6.2 _ 15.4 _ --5.1 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 12.4 __ Sherkin Island
Dacogawa _________6.0 _ 16.2 _ --4.8 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 __ Valentia
sryanbruen ________5.9 _ 14.2 _ --5.1 _ 120 _ 072 ___ 11.2 __ Sherkin Island
Joe Public _________5.7 _ 14.9 _ --4.9 _ 109 _ 100 ___ 11.9 __ Sherkin Island
Elmer Blooker ______4.4 _ 15.7 _ --5.9 _ 050 _ 140 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin Island
________________________________________________

25 forecasters so far (welcome Elmer Blooker) ... Con Sensus is 13th ranked
Normal values estimated for bonus, average max on 17th is about 11 or 12 C and some locations are always a bit above the scatter so that's how I arrived at 13.0, Shannon was chosen as the most likely location to be warmer than any other at mid-day.

Our consensus forecast seems to be a bit colder than normal, perhaps a bit sunnier, but later (penalized) entries were trending warmer indicating that the models are downgrading earlier depictions of continued chill.

This month, I have identified the highest MAX and lowest MIN forecasts by colour code.

Good luck everyone.

Tae laidir

Casement reporting -3.0 yesterday.
That could be it, folks.

Joe Public

Tae laidir wrote: »

Casement reporting -3.0 yesterday.
That could be it, folks.

Are you giving odds?

pauldry

Joe Public wrote: »

Are you giving odds?

Grange made -2.9c ooooooooh!

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Grange made -2.9c ooooooooh!

For anybody here, this is Grange in Sligo ^, not my Grange :rolleyes::o:pac:. Just thought I'd say that. My lowest minimum so far this March has been -2.4c.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT at 4.3 deg C

PRC is 124%

SUN at 105% (-1 hr for my later calc)

MAX nothing worth noting and MIN -3.0

pauldry

sryanbruen wrote: »

For anybody here, this is Grange in Sligo ^, not my Grange :rolleyes::o:pac:. Just thought I'd say that. My lowest minimum so far this March has been -2.4c.

Is the grange on met eireann not your grange sryan? Our grange is beside the sea and would rarely get near -2.9c

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Is the grange on met eireann not your grange sryan? Our grange is beside the sea and would rarely get near -2.9c

No and I don't know of any other place in Ireland called Grange.

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

No and I don't know of any other place in Ireland called Grange.

There are rather a lot of them!

pauldry

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

There are rather a lot of them!

I see a Grange in Tipp perhaps that one

On topic IMT is on the rise to 5 or 6 in a week or two.

However globally theres a developing cold pool to the North of Russia coming this way , may only reach Norway but if it reaches here expect lower IMT again.

M.T. Cranium

When they report Grange on Met E they mean Dunsany.

pauldry

I knew MT would have the answer...

P.s theres also a Grange in limerick

Is there one in every county??:p

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

When they report Grange on Met E they mean Dunsany.

Thank you for confirming my mistake

Schadenfreudia

pauldry wrote: »

Is there one in every county??:p

Not unlikely....

M.T. Cranium

Well I was confused by it, one day I noticed a report from "Grange" and didn't know it was Dunsany, so I found out the location of half a dozen places with that name, probably not the entire list. The biggest one seems to be a village that Pauldry must know, it's in north Sligo near Ben Bulben. But I think I found a few others. One was somewhere in Laois or Kildare. Must be like Springfield on this side of the ocean. More than half of all American states have one. Three or four are fairly big, most are quite small.

sryanbruen

Shannon Airport recorded a max. of 15.0c yesterday.

pauldry

So the Grange in Limerick mustv been warm too!!:rolleyes:

sryanbruen

I guess I'll get 0 points for everything on this month :pac:. I was so wrong:

A wet, windy, cold and very dull March. But looking like:

A relatively dry, cool and sunny March.

Rikand

sryanbruen wrote: »

Shannon Airport recorded a max. of 15.0c yesterday.

Ah come on Shannon! You can do better than that

sryanbruen

Shannon Airport's 15.0c remains the highest with no beaters yesterday.

Tae laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

Shannon Airport's 15.0c remains the highest with no beaters yesterday.

Or yesterday.
St. Patrick's Day looking temperate.

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Or yesterday.
St. Patrick's Day looking temperate.

Belmullet equalized Shannon

M.T. Cranium

Update after two weeks ...

IMT at 6.3 C (6.26) after a week at 8.2 C.

PRC has fallen off to 90% as this week averaged only 56% of normal.

SUN has improved very slightly to 106%, the past two days brought the week back up to 107% (another -1 for my detailed calculation, total of -2).

The MAX is 15.0 and the MIN is -3.0 (excluding today).

pauldry

Belmullet got 15.5c today but Newport wasnt far behind.

That could be it till maybe the last week 7 to 13c until March 24th

Tae laidir

Newport overtook at 16.1.
Today starting cool.