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March 2016 Boards forecast contest (enter by 0300h Tuesday 1st March)

  • 25-02-2016 6:32pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,312 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT for the usual five stations, March 1981-2010 normal value is 7.0 C.

    2. Predict the MAX temp for any station.

    3. Predict the MIN temp for any station.

    4. Predict the precipitation (PRC) as percentage of normal for the eleven stations normally used.

    5. Predict the sunshine (SUN) as percentage of normal for the six stations normally used.

    6. BONUS -- Predict the highest temperature for the 17th at any station (8 pts) with the location (2 pts), superbonus available for top scores.

    Late penalties in this new more rigorous time frame start at 0300h on Tuesday 1st of March, and there will be 1% reduction for every 2h late in the first 36h then 1% for every additional hour to 60h (which is 1500h 3rd) after which it goes to 2% per additional hour late.

    sample penalties: 1300h 1st ... 5% ___ 1300h 2nd ... 17%


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,595 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen_______ 5.9 __ 14.2 __ -5.1 __ 120 __ 72 ____ 11.2 - Sherkin Island

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels ______________6.5 __ 16.2 __ -4.3 __ 105 __ 89 ____ 12.9 - Sherkin Island


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,637 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 7.0 ____ 17.0 ____ -4.0 ____ 110 ______ 100 ______ 14.0 Valentia


    Lets go for a warm month. No more negativity :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____ 6.8 ____ 15.0 ____ -4.8 ____ 95 ______ 103 ______ 10.0 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,671 ✭✭✭ Elmer Blooker


    4.4c

    15.7c

    -5.9c

    50%

    140%

    12c Sherkin.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,895 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry____ 7.4 ____ 18.1 ____ -3.8 ____ 98 ______ 121 ______ 13.0 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,312 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _____ 6.3 __ 17.2 __ --5.5 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 13.2 Newport


  • Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 6.5 __ 16.9 __ -4.9 __ 088 __ 100 ___ 12.3 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭ omicron


    omicron____ 6.5____ 16.5 ____ -4.0 ____ 95______ 100 ______ 12.0 Sherkin


  • Registered Users Posts: 461 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 _____ 6.5 __ 17.0 __ --5.0 __ 110 __ 105 ___ 16.5 mullingar


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi _____ 6.2 __ 16.0 __ -5.0 __ 90 __ 115 ___ 13.5 Valentia


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,418 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    Mickger844posts 6.2, 15.4, -5.1, 85, 110, 12.4 Sherkin


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,792 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire _____ 6.6 __ 15.7 __ -4.1 __ 101 __ 098 ___ 12.0 Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 5.7 ____ 14.9 ____ -4.9 ____ 109 ____ 100 ____ 11.9 Sherkin


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _____ 6.0 __ 16.2 __ -4.8 __ 85 __ 110 ___ 13.1 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 713 lostinashford


    Lostinashford ____ 6.7 ____ 16.5 ____ -4.0 ____ 105 ______ 112 ______ 16.0 Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 354 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _____ 6.7 __ 16.8 __ -3.5 __ 100 __ 105 ___ 13.2 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 6.4 __ 15.7 __ -6.0 __ 88 __ 109 ____ 11.4 - Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn___ 7.8__ 16.8__ -3.3__ 95__ 120 ___ 14.4 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 319 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    6.8.....17.....-4.5.....95.....80.....12.....Valentia.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner ....6.8.....15.5..... -4.0.........100......100.....12.0 Sherkin


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,293 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH____ 6.8 ____ 16.8 ____ -4.1 ____102 ______ 108 ______ 14.0 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,024 ✭✭✭ John mac


    _John mac___ 7.5 __ 17.0 __ --3.0 __ 110 __ 105 ___ 14.5 mullingar

    Out of the country at the moment so hard to predict (28° right now where I am ) 😀


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭ jd


    jd___ 7.3 __ 17.4 __ -3.1 __ 116 __ 104 ___ 15.9 Sherkin


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 Schadenfreudia


    :eek: - nearly forgot!

    Schad_____ 6.4 __ 17.5 __ -5.0 __ 110 __ 100 ___ 14.1 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,312 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Forecasts for March 2016

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 17th __ loc'n

    Jpmarn ___________ 7.8 _ 16.8 _ --3.3 _ 095 _ 120 ___ 14.4 __ Shannon
    John mac ___ (-3) __ 7.5 _ 17.0 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.5 __ Mullingar
    Pauldry ___________ 7.4 _ 18.1 _ --3.8 _ 098 _ 121 ___ 13.0 __ Valentia
    jd_________ (-3) ___7.3 _ 17.4 _ --3.1 _ 116 _ 104 ___ 15.9 __ Sherkin Island
    Rikand ____________7.0 _ 17.0 _ --4.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.0 __ Valentia

    Normal ___________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ --5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 __ Shannon

    kindredspirit (-1) ___ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ --4.5 _ 095 _ 080 ___ 12.0 __ Valentia
    DOCARCH __ (-2) ___ 6.8 _ 16.8 _ --4.1 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 14.0 __ Casement
    MrSkinner __ (-1) ___ 6.8 _ 15.5 _ --4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin Island
    Bsal ______________ 6.8 _ 15.0 _ --4.8 _ 095 _ 103 ___ 10.0 __ Valentia
    waterways _________ 6.7 _ 16.8 _ --3.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 13.2 __ Shannon
    Lostinashford _______6.7 _ 16.5 _ --4.0 _ 105 _ 112 ___ 16.0 __ Phoenix Park
    Rameire ___________6.6 _ 15.7 _ --4.1 _ 101 _ 098 ___ 12.0 __ Phoenix Park
    dasa29 ____________6.5 _ 17.0 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.5 __ Mullingar

    Con Sensus ________ 6.5 _ 16.5 _ --4.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 13.0 __ Sherkin or Val

    Sunflower3 ________ 6.5 _ 16.9 _ --4.9 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 12.3 __ Valentia
    omicron ___________6.5 _ 16.5 _ --4.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin Island
    200motels _________6.5 _ 16.2 _ --4.3 _ 105 _ 089 ___ 12.9 __ Sherkin Island
    Schadenfreudia (-5) _ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.1 __ Casement
    Tae laidir __________6.4 _ 15.7 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 109 ___ 11.4 __ Shannon
    M.T. Cranium ______ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ --5.5 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 13.2 __ Newport
    Lumi _____________ 6.2 _ 16.0 _ --5.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 13.5 __ Valentia
    Mickger844posts ____6.2 _ 15.4 _ --5.1 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 12.4 __ Sherkin Island
    Dacogawa _________6.0 _ 16.2 _ --4.8 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 __ Valentia
    sryanbruen ________5.9 _ 14.2 _ --5.1 _ 120 _ 072 ___ 11.2 __ Sherkin Island
    Joe Public _________5.7 _ 14.9 _ --4.9 _ 109 _ 100 ___ 11.9 __ Sherkin Island
    Elmer Blooker ______4.4 _ 15.7 _ --5.9 _ 050 _ 140 ___ 12.0 __ Sherkin Island
    ________________________________________________

    25 forecasters so far (welcome Elmer Blooker) ... Con Sensus is 13th ranked
    Normal values estimated for bonus, average max on 17th is about 11 or 12 C and some locations are always a bit above the scatter so that's how I arrived at 13.0, Shannon was chosen as the most likely location to be warmer than any other at mid-day.

    Our consensus forecast seems to be a bit colder than normal, perhaps a bit sunnier, but later (penalized) entries were trending warmer indicating that the models are downgrading earlier depictions of continued chill.

    This month, I have identified the highest MAX and lowest MIN forecasts by colour code.

    Good luck everyone.


  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Casement reporting -3.0 yesterday.
    That could be it, folks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Casement reporting -3.0 yesterday.
    That could be it, folks.

    Are you giving odds?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,895 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Joe Public wrote: »
    Are you giving odds?

    Grange made -2.9c ooooooooh!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,595 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    Grange made -2.9c ooooooooh!

    For anybody here, this is Grange in Sligo ^, not my Grange :p:rolleyes::o:pac:. Just thought I'd say that. My lowest minimum so far this March has been -2.4c.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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