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Novelty Market Bet (Politics, UK {EU/Brexit} ) Should they stay, or should they go?

  • 20-02-2016 11:14pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    Early patterns showing 50/50, with (decimal) prices of only x1.33 (to stay) or a fairly decent BP x3.5 (to go).

    I think they might go. The no camp is already on the roll. But will wait for closer to x4 prices, then later (up to June 23) offset/lay x2 for risk elimination, if it's available.

    Likely there will be caps on single stakes, only would only be available from a couple of providers - as part of an accumulator. Novelty markets always need a bit of caution, and mainly for entertainment purposes.

    So after 31 hrs of chit-chat, the essence of the agreement was that they would restrict welfare payments (from 2020) for UK immigrants for up to 13yrs, 7yrs for Polish and much much less again for Irish - due to historical relationships and contributions. Payments for offshore offspring would also be means tested and indexed to their location. Would not affect any currently residing folks. more...

    If they do go, can just create new free trade agreements and already print their own currency. There's fairly strong public opinion this year on their overstretched public services, perhaps more so than ever before in recent times. The 'Calais factor' is very relevant this year, among various other contextual topical issues.
    Tagged:


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    Price shortened within 24hrs from (average) x3.5 to just x3.1 for a Brexit.
    Only W'Hill have x3.5 available now.

    Likely price-point should really be around x2.5, so may shorten even more. If you can get close to x4 anytime within the next 4 months that would be superb value. Sure they will simply be asked to 'vote again' the following year with a 'new deal on the table' anyway, if the exit voters do win.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    W'Hill now only x2.75 same as all the others. Any of that 'extra value x3.5' looks to be long gone now as the Mayor of London has joined the vote no (leave) camp.

    Screen_Shot_2016_02_22_at_16_35_14.png

    Only one place has the door slightly open (with x3 at Boylesports) for them to leave the EU.
    SJ (currently x2.75) is the only place I know of that allow this selection as part of an accumulator (for risk reduction).

    Only other market of interest is 'voter turnout', e.g. 68.0% And More @ x1.9,
    not great value and midsummer is still a fair bit away, 65%+ would be ideal numericals.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    Odds for the Leave have drifting out to 4.5, which is great value.

    bet_eu_staygo.png
    Might take a nibble via SJ as they allow it on accums selection.

    However the remain camp is gaining momentum with a mix of both fact and fiction (scare tactics).
    One fact-or is the IPS from the ONS, showing circa 4.5million passengers heading to eu every month,
    opposite to this would be the UK's 2.2million daily mail readers whom dislike all things foreign.

    bet_eu_4_374_000.png

    Hard to predict, safest option overall perhaps would be:
    the less than 68% turnout markets - for the very great undecided.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    That 4.5 Brexit value has left the station, now edging towards an even or 2.25 battle, and it really can go either way now.

    The pound is falling and remain politicians are getting very nervous.
    If remain do win it will only be by small percentiles.

    brexit_2_5.png

    bexit2_2.png

    brexit_evens.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,006 ✭✭✭ the whole year inn
    Registered User


    I dont know much about politics I would have thought to remain would be the verdict.Just to many uncertainty's if they do leave,and I heard on the radio if they do leave the Government will have to raise taxes,that would have swayed it I would have thought.If it goes to closer to 1.8 ill have a bet but to short as it is.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    ...will have to raise taxes..

    Well essentially you can dismiss much of the hyperbole (by both sides), as leaving is totally unchartered territory. The government there isn't really going to chop off it's left arm - if they do leave with severe taxes anyway, that simply makes no sense to inflict fiscal pain on top of what will be a temporary currency devaluation.

    These type of close 2-way novelty/political markets usually even out closer to actual event week/date.

    The plan from the outset was to pick off the leave price at 4.5 or 4, and offset (or lay) closer to 2 (evens). Which is what is/has happened anyway.

    There is massive support on either side, and it will be a close call which ever way it goes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,590 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2
    Registered User


    My own opinion is its to late to get involved in the market, they are so many people who have backed leave at huge prices who will be covering themselves and off course the tragedy of Yesterday.

    I was greedy and hoping I would get close to 4/5 to stay, better chance of Cate Blanchett coming to my house now. :(:(:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    Another 6 days to go, which is a long time in this market even with recent tragic events. £35/€40m+ matched on BFE.

    The price point is close to what it should be 2.6, it will lower to 2.5, then 2.25 on the actual day for Remain camp.
    If you got the 4 or 4.5 EP via WH's for Leave, you can't really go wrong now.

    Changed my mind on the taxation issue above, after hearing a few podcasts and contextual factors on the matter.

    If there is an actual leave vote, then the villa owners, sole traders, sme's and even regular Joes may well be battered blue with taxes. The FTSE, economy and currency will take a very sever (but temporary) hit also (but profit for Hedge Managers). The Eton boy is retiring anyway so opinion won't matter to him one way or the other.

    This temporary action will create desire for a newly bargained re-enter campaign within the year, spearheaded by GO.
    i.e. The public would simply be asked again, until it's agreed. They'll even think it's their idea to call for a new similar agreement.
    Followed soon thereafter with the TTIP roll out etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,294 ✭✭✭ Bandana boy
    Registered User


    The Sun backed the Leave campaign last week , and they have got every result right since 1979.
    Now whether that is they create trends or read them well you can argue but a hard fact to ignore for people backing they remain.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    The Sun backed the Leave campaign last week

    Indeed, the Sun and The Daily Mail have a leading print circulation of nearly 3.5 million, the pair have as much reach as the next five most popular daily press combined.

    On Sundays they equate to nearly six of their next rivals combined. Pretty much they carry sway across the mid & lower markets.

    Add in 16 million average daily unique impressions for online also.
    *via ABC May 2016.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    I backed 500 Euro on Bremain 15th May. I have another 200 Euro ready to go on next week. I am just waiting for the Bremain odds to drift more. I will take 1.5 if not anyway.

    See the screenshot of my bet. Personally I abhor aftertimers when it comes to gambling; those who talk the talk and can't walk the walk. I like to see people put their money where their mouth is, and back up their tips with some proof they have lumped on. I only tip dead certs when I have money on myself to back it up. Bremain wins, sure as night follows day.

    http://uploadpie.com/MpmXN


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    Another nice bet on this I am considering is the turnout percentage. Paddypower are offering odds of 2.0 on 67.5% or under. I think the 1.6 for 67.5% and over is too short. The General Election had a 60% turnout, and there is no way this will drop below say 63%, but 68% is too big. Fine weather on the 23rd means a bigger turnout as it was in the GE, but I can't see it topping say 66% due to the apathetic nature of the UK electorate.

    I just had a look on Betfair's exchange again (Bremain).

    Total matched on this event:€45,012,253
    Betting summary - Volume:€34,612,063
    Last price matched: 1.59

    When it's 35M Bremain v 10M Brexit the money in the market knows.
    The pro's aren't lumping millions on Bremain blindly when the polls are showing a Brexit lead. At this stage it should be 50/50 or 22.5M/22.5M, but when one sees an imbalance of 35M/10M a week out it means it's over.
    Its not going to be a landslide by any means, and will run close; but I se the result being say 55/45 Bremain/Brexit.
    Fine weather and a heavy turnout means more Bremainers and undecideds voting Bremain on the date.
    Another factor is MP Jo being murdered and the middle England sympathy vote. Never underestimate the influence that has with undecided voters; it sways them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭ the groutch


    Indeed, the Sun and The Daily Mail have a leading print circulation of nearly 3.5 million, the pair have as much reach as the next five most popular daily press combined.

    On Sundays they equate to nearly six of their next rivals combined. Pretty much they carry sway across the mid & lower markets.

    Add in 16 million average daily unique impressions for online also.
    *via ABC May 2016.

    to be fair though, I'd say the majority of their readership (especially the Mail) would be in the Leave camp already, so it's questionable how much influence they'll have on swinging undecideds to vote that way.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    When it comes to political betting, personally I ignore the polls and media. Reason being, they got the Scottish Referendum wrong; and also the General Election wrong. They said it was too close to call, and predicted either a hung parliament, or Labour. The polls didn't show the reality; Conservative majority. So it isn't quality data that one can bet on.
    I give serious weight to Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams.
    See the links below. When it comes to economic analysis and EU referendum betting, this man knows.
    I would rate his analysis above any media or polling.
    When he says Bremain, and turnout under 68%; it's as good as delivered on the day.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv-and-specials/20160614-eu-referendum-turnout-odds-may-have-surged-too-far

    https://twitter.com/leightonvw?lang=en

    This article in particular is bang on the mark when it comes to analysis.

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/brexit-or-bremain-smart-money-is-looking-to-the-bookies-1.2946659


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    to be fair though, I'd say the majority of their readership (especially the Mail) would be in the Leave camp already, so it's questionable how much influence they'll have on swinging undecideds to vote that way.

    A good point. This referendum has been different to previous ones, in that there has been more social media. The older generation of newspaper readers are predicted to vote Brexit, but the younger social media users Bremain. So I think the influence of newspapers will be less than before; even taking the online newspapers into account. The undecideds won't just be swayed by newspapers as before, this time social media will have an influence.
    Either way, the murder of MP Jo Bremainer will influence the undecideds to vote Bremain. One cannot underestimate the influence such a tragedy has on the electorate. There will be a lot of MEM's (middle England mums); that feel sad for Jo, and sympathy vote Bremain as a result. The Facebook and Twitter outpouring of grief is as powerful if not more; as any Brexit media article in the Daily Mail or Guardian etc.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    I'd agree polls and 'polls of polls' are to be taken with a large bowl of salt.

    Mass mood and sway are important. I took the UK ConMaj @13 (as a selection on an accumulator) with SJ, based simply on the singular fact that Miliband was repulsive to the masses and void of demonstrative leadership ability. Got Bulgaria placed as an e/w selection with WH @67 on eurovision. Was incorrect with the marriage referendum though, and wrong with Ukraine as an outright ev winner (still remains a curiosity).

    The trick with novelties is to predict and avail of peak price points when they occur, especially in this 2-way market (as mentioned in the OP) to optimise profit and reduce risk. Sorry but early doors single prices of 1.33 wouldn't have been/be of any interest.

    Middle England will indeed decide the Brexit, not based on single news events, but on immigration vs cheap holidays in the med.
    It will be a close call either way, hence the large undecided and possibly a lower tournout as many folks can't decide.
    Hope also, that votes are marked in pen, (not pencil) and properly audited in the interest of fairness.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    I'd agree polls and 'polls of polls' are to be taken with a large bowl of salt.

    Mass mood and sway are important. I took the UK ConMaj @13 (as a selection on an accumulator) with SJ, based simply on the singular fact that Miliband was repulsive to the masses and void of demonstrative leadership ability. Got Bulgaria placed as an e/w selection with WH @67 on eurovision. Was incorrect with the marriage referendum though, and wrong with Ukraine as an outright ev winner (still remains a curiosity).

    The trick with novelties is to predict and avail of peak price points when they occur, especially in this 2-way market (as mentioned in the OP) to optimise profit and reduce risk. Sorry but early doors single prices of 1.33 wouldn't have been/be of any interest.

    Middle England will indeed decide the Brexit, not based on single news events, but on immigration vs cheap holidays in the med.
    It will be a close call either way, hence the large undecided and possibly a lower tournout as many folks can't decide.
    Hope also, that votes are marked in pen, (not pencil) and properly audited in the interest of fairness.

    Agreed 1.33 isn't value, but when I backed 15th May I speculated odds would shorten rather than drift. I will top up another 200 next week as I think a drift from 1.5 is possible. If not I will just take the 1.5 or whatever is available on by the 22nd.
    With regards to accumulator bets I very rarely get involved; mainly due to my accounts being limited with the main bookies. These days I can only get weight on with Paddypower or Betfair exchange so use them.
    But I do fancy this one, so let me know what you think?
    Bremain, turnout under 68%, Tyson Fury, Hilary Clinton.
    I think they are all safe bets, but one needs the patience to wait until November for the POTUS result for it to deliver.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,521 ✭✭✭✭ mansize


    Betfair was 1.6 for Remain today. I think thats excellent value.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    mansize wrote: »
    Betfair was 1.6 for Remain today. I think thats excellent value.

    Agreed, I saw that on Oddschecker today. I am going to hold out until next Wednesday as I reckon there will be a drift on Bremain and a shorten on Brexit. Maybe like 1.7 v 1.9 or something on the day. It typically takes the market 24 hours to react to polling so one has time to get on. Worse case I will just have to top up 200 at 1.5 or so. Profit is profit.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    I do fancy the under 67.5% turnout on Paddypower at odds of 2.0
    First I will need to check the UK weather forecast next week. If Thursday is sunny it will be well over the 60% for sure, but I can't see it hitting a 68% turnout as the General Election only pulled 60% with fine weather. Maybe voter motivation will be higher than for a GE though?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    Here is something many don't know. Cameron, Boris, and Osborne were all members of the Bullingdon Club at Oxford.
    When I look at this picture of them as young men, I think their positions mirror the Bremain v Brexit result.
    Cameron stands tall and victorious, and Boris is sat on his ass like a loser. The picture says it all really winner v loser.

    https://www.google.ie/search?q=bullingdon+club+cameron&rlz=1C1AVNG_enIE631IE631&espv=2&biw=1366&bih=705&tbm=isch&imgil=uBZeW_HVWf1PZM%253A%253BOqgP6OrJ6QA3iM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%25252Fnews%25252Farticle-2407406%25252FMove-Boris--Bullingdon-Club-2013.html&source=iu&pf=m&fir=uBZeW_HVWf1PZM%253A%252COqgP6OrJ6QA3iM%252C_&usg=__13Xw1Z5WLHYH_WBc5QBSnouRla0%3D&ved=0ahUKEwjNrZuaq7DNAhXIJsAKHUWADosQyjcINw&ei=MZhkV43RFMjNgAbFgLrYCA#imgrc=uBZeW_HVWf1PZM%3A


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,006 ✭✭✭ the whole year inn
    Registered User


    poa wrote: »
    Agreed 1.33 isn't value, but when I backed 15th May I speculated odds would shorten rather than drift. I will top up another 200 next week as I think a drift from 1.5 is possible. If not I will just take the 1.5 or whatever is available on by the 22nd.
    With regards to accumulator bets I very rarely get involved; mainly due to my accounts being limited with the main bookies. These days I can only get weight on with Paddypower or Betfair exchange so use them.
    But I do fancy this one, so let me know what you think?
    Bremain, turnout under 68%, Tyson Fury, Hilary Clinton.
    I think they are all safe bets, but one needs the patience to wait until November for the POTUS result for it to deliver.

    You think Fury will have it so easy this time round with Klitschko,I dont think so ,I think the others are rock solid tho.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    You think Fury will have it so easy this time round with Klitschko,I dont think so ,I think the others are rock solid tho.

    To be honest with you, I did my balls in heavily backing Klitschko last time. Over the years he has been a cash machine for me. But father time has caught up with him at 40. At 30 he would have annihilated Fury, but Fury is 27 now v a 40 year old slowing down. Fury has movement and an awkward style that Klitschko can't grab and hold to wear down as is his method. Klitschko will be more aggressive and let his hands go more this time, but opening up more means more shots landed for Fury. I see it being closer this time, as the 1.9 v 1.9 odds suggest, but another Fury points win.
    Anyway, I don't have the patience to wait on until November for the POTUS in a accumulator, so will stick with my 2K on Clinton.
    I am just going to stick with my Bremain, Fury, Clinton singles; and leave the 67.5% under bet as its not enough value for me.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    Back on topic Bremain is shortening all across Oddschecker.
    It's over with one week to go.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,521 ✭✭✭✭ mansize


    Today's polls are going Bremain.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    mansize wrote: »
    Today's polls are going Bremain.

    Personally I ignore the polls as they got the GE wrong. They predicted it was too close to call, hung parliament, or Labour.
    None of them predicted Conservative majority which is what happened.
    The same with the Scottish referendum, they called out and they stayed in.
    I think what has been the tipping point for Bremain this week is MP Jo Cox being murdered. That will sway a lot of the undecideds to Bremain.
    Honestly I think Bremain is a dead cert, it will be close like 55/45, but I can't see Brexit winning.
    I think this week Bremains odds continue to shorten steadily, and Brexit drifts steadily.
    There may well be some sharp spikes in the market with layers laying off Brexit on Betfair exchange. I know some heavy Brexit backers at 4.5 that will trade when it hits 2.5 or less causing market distortion for 12-24 hours until it settles.
    Are you on Bremain yourself?
    I got 500 on at 1.33 and another 200 on at 1.5, but I would like top up my 700 up to 1K in the final week if possible.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,521 ✭✭✭✭ mansize


    poa wrote: »
    Personally I ignore the polls as they got the GE wrong. They predicted it was too close to call, hung parliament, or Labour.
    None of them predicted Conservative majority which is what happened.
    The same with the Scottish referendum, they called out and they stayed in.
    I think what has been the tipping point for Bremain this week is MP Jo Cox being murdered. That will sway a lot of the undecideds to Bremain.
    Honestly I think Bremain is a dead cert, it will be close like 55/45, but I can't see Brexit winning.
    I think this week Bremains odds continue to shorten steadily, and Brexit drifts steadily.
    There may well be some sharp spikes in the market with layers laying off Brexit on Betfair exchange. I know some heavy Brexit backers at 4.5 that will trade when it hits 2.5 or less causing market distortion for 12-24 hours until it settles.
    Are you on Bremain yourself?

    The polls said IN re Scottish Ref, one poll said OUT, and afterward IN came back.

    The UK Parliament predicted Hung, and Con won a slender maj.

    Irish Polls, said FG Minority - FG Min

    Marriage & Presidential both correct also.

    The only was slightly off was Con Maj. and it was very slender.

    I think post Jo Cox's murder people will closer examine both camps, an floating voters will vote Remain.

    One thing can be said, Cameron is awful on the Remain side. But Gove and Farage are poor for Brexit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,521 ✭✭✭✭ mansize


    Yes. I'm Bremain and I backed Remain. 1.61


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Bjorn Strong Lever


    Indeed interesting to see it as way low as 1.36, WH is again soley getting generous with 3.25 leave. (peaked at 5.5 for a short while mid-may)
    The temporary effect of weekend news maybe, and thus a lull in canvasing.

    Monday however a new week for them, full of traffic jams, nhs/school waiting lists and lads jumping on lorries.
    Surely it will stablise before Thursday.

    Rain forecast for Thurs and 100,000 liberal yoofs mightn't get to vote, too busy packing or preparing to partying around poorly assembled tents. Hard to get excited about Adele and Coldplay as weekend headliners, zzz.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 541 ✭✭✭ poa
    Banned


    mansize wrote: »
    Yes. I'm Bremain and I backed Remain. 1.61

    Wise decision, enjoy your winnings. And nice odds too.
    I agree Cameron is not the best campaigner, but as you rightly say Boris and Gove are worse ones, so he wins by default doing nothing.
    Its like Clinton v Trump, she is unpopular; but he is even more unpopular.
    So as bad as she is, she is the default.
    I was hoping Bremain might drift a little this week if a pro-Brexit poll came out, but its looking like the polls will be showing pro-Bremain from now on.
    I may top up another 300 on the 22nd as sometimes these things can run closest in the 24 hours before the voting, maybe 1.5 v 2.0 or something.


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