Novelty Market Bet (Politics, UK {EU/Brexit} ) Should they stay, or should they go?

poa

I was just looking at the Betfair exchange graphs.
Around 37M Euro on Bremain v 11M on Brexit
I think the money in the market knows its over.
With something 50/50 like this, it should be more like 24M V 24M with one week to go.
But when one sees 37M lumped on Bremain and rising daily it's a safe bet.

Rjd2

poa wrote: »

I was just looking at the Betfair exchange graphs.
Around 37M Euro on Bremain v 11M on Brexit
I think the money in the market knows its over.
With something 50/50 like this, it should be more like 24M V 24M with one week to go.
But when one sees 37M lumped on Bremain and rising daily it's a safe bet.

Aye I think the pools from yougov etc showed the swing back towards remain. Bear in mind these polls were done before the Jo Cox murder. One of those

I think like the Scottish referendum, people got a excited about "independence" etc. but once the moment approaches, they fear the worst and think about stuff like how it effects them economically.

When pushed in one of the polls last night, the don't knows said they would probably vote remain as well.


I can see remain going off about 1/4 or so.

I

poa

Rjd2 wrote: »

Aye I think the pools from yougov etc showed the swing back towards remain. Bear in mind these polls were done before the Jo Cox murder. One of those

I think like the Scottish referendum, people got a excited about "independence" etc. but once the moment approaches, they fear the worst and think about stuff like how it effects them economically.

When pushed in one of the polls last night, the don't knows said they would probably vote remain as well.


I can see remain going off about 1/4 or so.

I

You make some good points. I think Brexit has two main obstacles in the UK electorate; apathy, and fear of change. Its a case of better the devil you know, than the devil you don't, for a lot of undecideds.
The telephone polling has historically been shown to be more accurate than online. But we see more online polls as they are cheaper to administer. So that can distort the media's view as many online polls are churned out v fewer telephone ones. The older people are expected to favour Brexit, and the younger Bremain. But one also has to factor in that people do not always tell the truth in polls.
For example in the GE polling there were many don't know's; so a hung parliament was expected. But in reality there was a massive silent Tory majority in the electorate, that prefer to keep their views private and come out and vote in force on the day.
I see the same thing happening this time, a lot of silent Tory Bremain voters that back Cameron as they did in the GE.
One can never underestimate the Tory faithful, they will come out and vote when needed.
I reckon with fine weather on Thursday we are looking at 60-65% turnout, and a 55/45 result for Bremain/Brexit. Maybe even more Bremain.
Currently I am 700 on Bremain with Paddypower, but I would like to top up to 1K if there is any drift on the Bremain odds. I think it will most likely shorten as the week goes on though.
In any case its a safe bet.

poa

poa wrote: »

Its a case of better the devil you know, than the devil you don't, for a lot of undecideds.

But the expansion project may well contain more (80m) unknowns over the next few years.
Not to mention the 'EU Neighborhood Policy' of N.Africa, Ukr, Georgia in the longer term.

poa wrote: »

I reckon with fine weather on Thursday we are looking at 60-65% turnout, and a 55/45 result for Bremain/Brexit. Maybe even more Bremain.

Agree with sub-65% tournout, but a percentage point less in the southern (conservative/remain) side. Predict a 53% Bremain, but wouldn't consider it a very safe bet as such. 1.6 is decent enough, if you also got anything above 2.63 for leave, can't loose either way.

90% Wet with storms in the south, drier but still cloudy/dull in the north.

poa

Bjorn Strong Lever wrote: »

But the expansion project may well contain more (80m) unknowns over the next few years.
Not to mention the 'EU Neighborhood Policy' of N.Africa, Ukr, Georgia in the longer term.





Agree with sub-65% tournout, but a percentage point less in the southern (conservative/remain) side. Predict a 53% Bremain, but wouldn't consider it a very safe bet as such. 1.6 is decent enough, if you also got anything above 2.63 for leave, can't loose either way.

90% Wet with storms in the south, drier but still cloudy/dull in the north.

Interesting.
Wet weather in the South could see a lower turnout then.
Do you think there could be a drift on Bremain between now and Thursday?
I am hoping to top up, but the 1.33 on Paddypower isn't the value I would like.
I was hoping for a pro-Brexit poll this week to cause the market to react 24 hours later with a little drift on Bremain.
The graphs on Betfair exchange are showing that, but Oddschecker continues to go the other way across the bookies.

The tragic events created an impact that is still effecting the market since Friday, a day is long time in politics so come Wednesday 1.5 or 1.6 is very possible. May even be worth seeing what happens in the 12.30am Sunderland EI/1st result, they should have 6pt lead for a tie to occur.

poa

Bjorn Strong Lever wrote: »

The tragic events created an impact that is still effecting the market since Friday, a day is long time in politics so come Wednesday 1.5 or 1.6 is very possible. May even be worth seeing what happens in the 12.30am Sunderland EI/1st result, they should have 6pt lead for a tie to occur.

I agree with you. Its been a perfect storm for Bremain. No campaigning for a few days has broken the Brexit momentum just at the right time; one week out. Less is more, Cameron just has to sit back and let Boris and Gove make a balls of the Brexit campaign. Its a delicate one, they can no longer go on about immigration after Jo's murders as it's too sensitive. They don't want to appear to be anti-immigrant and right-wing like her murderer.
I think I will hold my 300 top up this week until Bremain hits 1.5 again.
Worse case I will take what's on offer on the 22nd.
I expect the polls to become more 50/50 this week, and the market to react 24-48 hours after each poll, maybe with 1.5 v 2.0 being the odds on the 22nd.
What do you see the final odds being?

Final odds will depend on book/exchange availability in the wee small hours of Friday am, particularly around midpoint of 3.30am when Edinburgh results come out, they're expected by Lads to be the highest % bremainers, but by how much is the question.

Next on the 'novelty' outlook will be the 'horrendously horrid' big bruv' TV un-reality drama series, softly spoken Hugh may be in the top3 finalists, needless to say won't be watching the final if there is any paint on walls drying nearby.

poa

Bjorn Strong Lever wrote: »

Final odds will depend on book/exchange availability in the wee small hours of Friday am, particularly around midpoint of 3.30am when Edinburgh results come out, they're expected by Lads to be the highest % bremainers, but by how much is the question.

Next on the 'novelty' outlook will be the 'horrendously horrid' big bruv' TV un-reality drama series, softly spoken Hugh may be in the top3 finalists, needless to say won't be watching the final if there is any paint on walls drying nearby.

I have made some money from CBB over the years, but I never got involved with BB. I find the CBB more predictable, and my biggest wins came on Jim Davidson, and James Hill respectively. Both clear winners for me.
I always follow the same modus operandi and back heavy in the final week when it its clearer who is going to make the final.
But last year I decided it was going to be the last one I would take an interest it, so I am going to pass on this one.
I think Fury and Clinton are safer bets, and worth waiting for July and November respectively to deliver.
There isn't anything else after POTUS that interests me to to be honest, so I may well top up on Clinton after my Bremain and Fury wins.

the groutch

Bjorn Strong Lever wrote: »

The tragic events created an impact that is still effecting the market since Friday, a day is long time in politics so come Wednesday 1.5 or 1.6 is very possible. May even be worth seeing what happens in the 12.30am Sunderland EI/1st result, they should have 6pt lead for a tie to occur.

unless it's very very tight, the second it hits 10pm, Sky will call it based on their exit polls, their exit poll got the general election right to nearly the exact seat.

Very strong market moves this morning, 1.2 vs 4.33. Sterling has also recovered it's recent losses over the last 2 mths.
A little over preemptive perhaps? Or the effect of DC's non-stop airtime.
Conspiracy theorists are probably all over Thursdays events too.



Am sure the folks trading 30dayFX would make BF's total matched amount/volume look like peanuts.

poa

It's over.
The money in the market knows.
I am 700 on Bremain, and it looks like I won't be able to get another 300 top up on as the value is gone now.
I was hoping for a drift to 1.5 but the polls have swung back to Bremain again so that's that.
Bremain is buying money, not the best value bet, but a dead cert is a dead cert; and profit is profit.
Oddschecker is 1.25 across the board now and shortening. I wouldn't be surprised if its 1.1 by Thursday and Brexit 5.0
53M on Betfair exchange, 41M on Bremain v 12M Brexit; enough said.
The heavy hitters in the market that lump millions on don't make errors.

Rjd2

Talk of embargoed polls, the stirling pick up, fall out from the Jo Co death,, Nissan supposedly planning to sue leave for "lies" and also I think Farage really messed up with that poster last week.

Cameron rightfully drew attention to it as have many in the media, I think some who were borderline in voting possibly younger people will definitely be influenced to vote remain due to that.

The leavers have had an absolutely brutal week overall.

Rjd2

Also The Times printed a story on their front page about the leave campaign about baroness Warsi leaving it to join the remain campaign, most of the leave campaign didn't even know she wanted to leave.:pac:

However for the masses who didn't bother to do any research, its another black mark against leave.

I thought this Thursday would be 1/3 or 1/4, but actually now think it may go off at 1/6 or even shorter.

poa

Its been a perfect storm for Bremain.
Jo Cox murder and the 2 day break from campaigning broke the Brexit campaign momentum.
The undecideds will now be backing Bremain.
The UK electorate are apathetic and fear change, and there is also a silent Tory majority that prefer to keep their political views private when it comes to both telephone and internet polling.
But when it comes to it, they come out in force on the day; as we saw in the General Election with a Tory majority.
The middle class in England want Bremain, as its good for them economically.
When it comes to economy v immigration, Bremain v Brexit's main arguments they are more concerned with the former than the latter.
Cheap immigrant labour is good for the capitalist money in the UK, so its no problem for them. They are insulated from the social problems of mass immigration.
The working class are more vocal in polls, but when it comes to voting they don't show up.
I am 100% certain Bremain wins this. I reckon 55/45 will be the margin, with a 60-65% turnout maybe less due to the weather forecast. The GE only had a 60% turnout with fine weather, and it was the Tory faithful.
When their boy Cameron says Bremain, its Bremain. Never underestimate the loyalty of the Tory faithful. Silent in polls, but they deliver in votes, sure as night follows day.
1.29 on Paddypower is buying money at this stage.

poa

I have 1K on Bremain now.

http://imageshack.com/a/img922/4381/0HsjV9.jpg

Last chance to get on the train to winnersville at 1.29

http://imageshack.com/a/img924/310/vzo6su.jpg

41M Euro backing Bremain on Betfair exchange. The money in the market knows.

http://imageshack.com/a/img924/1750/qqDJ6u.jpg

This is buying money.
A dead cert.

poa

the groutch wrote: »

unless it's very very tight, the second it hits 10pm, Sky will call it based on their exit polls, their exit poll got the general election right to nearly the exact seat.

Agreed, one can trust the Sky result. I wouldn't be surprised if the bookies start paying out at that stage. Paddypower often settle politics markets before the official result is announced. Bremain has won this, it's over; sure as night follows day.

poa

Interesting blog on Paddypower.
I concur with its findings.

http://blog.paddypower.com/politics/2016/06/20/brexit-vote-paddy-power-seeing-huge-bets-now-remain/

This in particular:

http://imageshack.com/a/img922/4844/5bSpra.jpg

Our Bremain jolly is home and hosed in this 2 horse race.

Enjoy your winnings.

The FX markets seem to have decided, and all the books would be fairly happy for folks to take the 1.2 on offer.

Still with 2 Days 5 Hours and 20mins to go in an event that hasn't historically happened before.
The only advice would be to either skip it at this stage, or wait it out for a late glimpse/glitch of 1.6+.

Do dislike polls and biased media reporting but with the 'poll of polls' showing 50/50 just days ago (up to the 18th),
will be interesting to see their latest data when it arrives.

The undecided 10% may well make up their minds in the seconds before marking.

If you have a Coral Acc (they don't want me) then 1.83 looks like it could buy a few weekend shandies for -68% turn-out.

poa

Bjorn Strong Lever wrote: »

The FX markets seem to have decided, and all the books would be fairly happy for folks to take the 1.2 on offer.

Still with 2 Days 5 Hours and 20mins to go in an event that hasn't historically happened before.
The only advice would be to either skip it at this stage, or wait it out for a late glimpse/glitch of 1.6+.

Do dislike polls and biased media reporting but with the 'poll of polls' showing 50/50 just days ago (up to the 18th),
will be interesting to see their latest data when it arrives.

The undecided 10% may well make up their minds in the seconds before marking.

If you have a Coral Acc (they don't want me) then 1.83 looks like it could buy a few weekend shandies for -68% turn-out.

I can get on about 2 Euro with Coral these days.
Nice odds for those that can get anything on with them.
73.50 is all I can get on Cannon online with Paddypower.
In shops I have been upgraded from an amber customer to a red one on their traffic light customer risk scale.
I only recently found out that bookies circulate customer pictures around branches of pro-gamblers/heavy bettors.
This explains why when I drove an hour to a town I never go to, to try and lump on they refused to take my bet.
I have a few friends that place for me, and driving to the North is always an option as I am only 1 hour from the border.
I can get 1-2K Sterling on in Northern bookies no questions asked.
73.50 on Cannon with PP is a joke though. I lumped 1K on Fury no problem with them, and 2K on Clinton respectively.
Sometimes the traders limits defy all logic when capping bets.

Rjd2

poa wrote: »

I can get on about 2 Euro with Coral these days.

2 Euro?:eek:

They must have you marked up as a mug so. :pac:


(joke:P)

poa

Rjd2 wrote: »

2 Euro?:eek:

They must have you marked up as a mug so. :pac:


(joke:P)

16 years of gambling and winning more than losing has meant most of the bookies have either closed my accounts or limited them to nothing now.
I just use Paddypower and Betfair exchange online these days.
I prefer depositing and withdrawing in cash, hence why I prefer PP to BE, as it takes time to withdraw to one's bank account.
The funny thing is, sometimes the traders will allow 2K on something high liability for them, but only 20 on something low liability.
What I can get on Betfair sportsbook is a joke, so not worth bothering with.
Currently I have 1K Bremain, 1K Fury, 2K Clinton, and will top up on Fury when Bremain delivers Friday. But what frustrates me is only being able to get on 73.50 on Cannon. I want to get 2K on him ideally as its nice odds of 4.3 with PP. So it's looking like a drive to the North this weekend then to lump on over the counter with a few bookies. I had no problem getting 1K on CBB with them before, no questions asked. UK bookies seem more willing to take bigger bets.

poa

After Jo Cox murder, and Farage's racist immigrant poster; our Bremain jolly was romping home in the final furlong in a canter.
As if that wasn't enough to secure victory in this 2 horse race.
But now our jolly is home and hosed thanks to Baroness Sayeeda Warsi defecting from Brexit to Bremain at a crucial time.
So that is the Muslim electorate vote in the UK sewn up.
Tory faithful+undecideds+Muslims, it's game over.
Never underestimate the effect of a defection like this when it comes to votes. The UK Muslims will come out and vote Bremain in force now.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-baroness-sayeeda-warsi-defects-from-leave-to-remain-a7090741.html

Farage really scored an own goal with that poster. His political career is over after Bremain wins.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poster-nigel-farage-polls-michael-gove-a7089946.html

poa

Down from 1.29 to 1.25 now across the board with Oddschecker.
Last chance to board the train to winnersville passengers, have your tickets ready.
I reckon Bremain drops to 1.2 or 1.22 tomorrow as more is lumped on.
Brexit probably drifts like a barge from 4.0 to 5.0

http://imageshack.com/a/img922/2079/RxHTuP.jpg

poa

Here’s a rundown of the key times to watch Thursday through early Friday morning.
7 a.m. Polling stations open
10 p.m. Polling stations close, no exit polls
Around 11:30 p.m. First announcements on voter turnout
12.30 a.m. Results expected for first counting areas
3-4 a.m. Results from half of the counting areas are in
Around 5 a.m. About 80% of counting areas have reported results
7 a.m. All votes are likely to have been counted and the official result is expected shortly after.
10 a.m. Paddypower opens for you to collect your winnings on Bremain.

poa

I see the odds on Bremain are 1.25 v 4.0 Brexit this morning.
47M Euro v 13M Euro backed on Betfair exchange respectively.
Cameron must have called Beckham and offered a knighthood in return for backing Bremain.
Sir David and Lady Victoria by the end of the year, you mark my words.
That's the UK football fan vote sewn up then.
Ask yourself this; 47M Euro Bremain v 13M Euro Brexit?
The smart money is lumping on the winner.
This is buying money.

Indeed holding steady at 1.25, although still wouldn't be surprised of very last minute jitters just before market suspension. (888 just closed).
Think there was a minor glimpse of 6.0 for leavers.

The exchanges always show a lot more leverage than polls/markets, athough the markets this morning seem to have made their mind up early
6,250 break (6%+ over 5 days) to be seen shortly, and a possible 1.48 on Thurs against USD

#UsePens seems to be trending on social due to some theorists

Unless there is a silent revolt from the C1/C2&D (with biros in hand) across middle Eng, indeed extra shinny badges for all the actors involved.

Rjd2

Understandably, the remain price is absolutely collapsing when you look at the below polls, probably going to be 1/5 or so in the morning.

Favs lose obviously, but anybody who still thinks that this is hard to call, needs a lie down:P



Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 14m14 minutes ago
The final three phone polls
BMG 6% REMAIN lead
ORB 8% REMAIN lead
ComRes 8% REMAIN led
Just Ipsos to come

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/745725593493311488

Well the markets sure had a good day 1.48 USD and around 6,300.
1.3 currently available at a couple of shops. SportingIndex though have closed the doors.
As with football and all other things it's not over until Merkel the large lady sings.

ianburke

media saying it's still too close to call.