New England Patriots Thread Mod Warning Post #253

Christy42

eagle eye wrote: »

Christy42 wrote: »

I think a strength of Mahomes is that you have someone watching for the rollout. It frees up receivers or slows down the rush. Given teams have been playing against Wilson and the like for a few years I reckon they have tried it. Generally he seems to side arm it to the open man when they go to close him down.

The offense will have to put up another good performance. The holes are there in the Chiefs defense but Mahomes will punish you if you don't take full advantage.

You talk about the strength of Mahomes, Belichick will find the weaknesses and prey on them.

I sure he has plans. I would just say that he realises he won't shut him down entirely and that it will involve a lot more than a qb spy to throw Mahomes off balance.

eagle eye

Christy42 wrote:

I sure he has plans. I would just say that he realises he won't shut him down entirely and that it will involve a lot more than a qb spy to throw Mahomes off balance.

Of course it will take more than a spy. I was just giving an example of something like what Belichick will find.
Look at Phillip Rivers and how poor he looked yesterday after having a great season and looking good against a much vaunted Ravens D the weekend before.

PhuckHugh

Pats will have to test Tyreek Hill's knees this week.

D9Male

Give it a rest.

PhuckHugh

Mahomes needs to be hit repeatedly also --- gonna be below zero --- smack him over and over again.

irishrover99

PhuckHugh wrote: »

Mahomes needs to be hit repeatedly also --- gonna be below zero --- smack him over and over again.

Below zero is an understatement.
It could be well be about -15c at kick off.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=40.04;-93.86;6&l=temperature-2m&t=20190120/2100

PhuckHugh

irishrover99 wrote: »

Below zero is an understatement.
It could be well be about -15c at kick off.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=40.04;-93.86;6&l=temperature-2m&t=20190120/2100

Brady has played in cold many times but never that low?

It will be a night for patience and discipline --- No point having men being pushed passed Mahomes and he breaking from the pocket at ease. Keep him trapped in there and try and force mistakes from the young buck.

PhuckHugh

PhuckHugh wrote: »

We are going to dismantle them .... Old man Rivers will have a meltdown in a chilli fox'boro - We will dink and dunk it to White, Edleman and Burkhead all day ---- Gronk can still block if he cant catch.... someone needs to test Gordon's knees early.

Fairly spot on last week.

I think we might see some Gronk in the passing this week tho. KC will expect more of the same from Edleman and White but I think we get Gronk/ Dorsett and maybe even some big plays from Patterson this week.

KC secondary is average - not rated against TE or the run and with the weather it will be run, run, run early and often.

Are they the No.1 rated O tho? As I said already - I dont see us blitzing like Sunday gone --- if we can repeat stopping the run / first down yardage and make Mahomes try and force it we will get joy. The kids a talent but has a lot to learn yet and the weather will be a big, big test for him.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Pats will have played in 72% of the AFC Championship games going back to 2001 :eek:

The key to winning will be the pass rush. It turned up big time against the Chargers, but Mahomes is a different challenge. Mahomes has shown that he can still make plays when out of the pocket, and he has much better weapons than the Chargers, so the pass rush will have to help out the defensive backs.

Despite the big win at the weekend, it was at home. And away this year has been different. Hoping we have have enough to eek out the win.

ELM327

The Home vs Away differential this year is another thing that concerns me.
We can't go all out cover 0 blitz against mahomes as he will roll out.

What is more likely is agressive pass coverage but as EE says above, a cover against Mahomes' preferred rollout side, almost a QB spy but offset .

This will be a great game for the neutrals, if NE is going to get the W we're going to need to see a lot of Gronk in the passing game and a lot of 3.5-4+ yard carries from Michel. A different game altogether from the chargers. Which is fine, because that's been Bill's strategy for years in the playoffs, custom gameplans for each opponent based on containing their #1 strength and exploiting weaknesses.

PhuckHugh

ELM327 wrote: »

The Home vs Away differential this year is another thing that concerns me.
We can't go all out cover 0 blitz against mahomes as he will roll out.

What is more likely is agressive pass coverage but as EE says above, a cover against Mahomes' preferred rollout side, almost a QB spy but offset .

This will be a great game for the neutrals, if NE is going to get the W we're going to need to see a lot of Gronk in the passing game and a lot of 3.5-4+ yard carries from Michel. A different game altogether from the chargers. Which is fine, because that's been Bill's strategy for years in the playoffs, custom gameplans for each opponent based on containing their #1 strength and exploiting weaknesses.

This Pats team have struggled against QBs that can extend plays outside the pocket and he is very capable of that --- Get him going to his left all day.

ELM327

PhuckHugh wrote: »

This Pats team have struggled against QBs that can extend plays outside the pocket and he is very capable of that --- Get him going to his left all day.

I would agree with this sentiment, if there isn't a plan devised to deal with the QB rollout then I don't see NE winning. However as it's the post season and it's BB/NE I can't imagine that he hasnt gameplanned for that for some time. Arguably it is one of the strengths of Mahomes' game outside of the usual QB stuff.
Not as if we haven't seen this style before, Roethlisberger and Rogers are similar styled QBs, extending the play etc

bruschi

eagle eye wrote: »

I love all the doubt surrounding the team because it's pumping Brady up and in turn he is pumping the rest of the team up with this stuff.



I have been saying for a while that I have this feeling we are going to win it all this season. I think we've seen every part of the team not look good at some stage and I just have this feeling that it's been planned to have a certain section on downtime for a couple of weeks.



I predicted we would see a big performance on Sunday and we did. I'm predicting we are going into Kansas and whooping the Chiefs.



Don't forget how good Belichick is at seeing the flaws in the opposition and putting a plan together to use that weakness to win games. Mahomes for me isn't very good when the pocket breaks down. Against other teams he has gotten away with a lot of things rolling out of the pocket. Belichick will analyse everything, he will see what way he normally goes when he rolls out of the pocket and he'll have somebody told to get there as fast as possible in order to at least rush or pressure his pass.



Our defense looked like a serious playoff defense for the first time this season yesterday. I don't think it's an accident that everything came together on both sides of the ball in the playoffs.



I'm looking forward and confident at this point. I realise how good the Chiefs have looked and that we only beat them by three points in Gillette. Thing is you have to ask yourself who got the most out of that game and I say to you that it was Bill Belichick.

Thing about the defence, is that there have been many times I think they have turned the corner, that it is all figured out, and they just go and collapse in the next game. I just dont trust them.

I dont fancy the Patriots to win the next game, nor a potential matchup against Saints/Rams, but at the same time, if they do win one or both, it wouldnt shock me either.

Main reason for that is Bradys comments after the game and comments from McCourty etc. A team, who were second seed in AFC, in their 8th title game in a row, have been slighted and are playing as underdogs and with a chip on their shoulder. There is huge motivation there and with sucessful teams, the hardest thing to do is to keep the players motivated. Its why in the NFL you see so many Superbowl winners not even get to the playoffs the following year (as well as drafting/cap salaries etc).

And you can never discount the experience of playoffs. Mahomes had a nice first playoff game, but Brady has more playoff wins than anyone has appearances in the playoffs. He has been there, done it and knows what is coming. That Chiefs defence is nothing to worry about, despite their good showing against the Colts. You basically have 2 bad defences who played well in their playoff win, which of them will keep the momentum?

PhuckHugh

bruschi wrote: »

Thing about the defence, is that there have been many times I think they have turned the corner, that it is all figured out, and they just go and collapse in the next game. I just dont trust them.

I dont fancy the Patriots to win the next game, nor a potential matchup against Saints/Rams, but at the same time, if they do win one or both, it wouldnt shock me either.

Main reason for that is Bradys comments after the game and comments from McCourty etc. A team, who were second seed in AFC, in their 8th title game in a row, have been slighted and are playing as underdogs and with a chip on their shoulder. There is huge motivation there and with sucessful teams, the hardest thing to do is to keep the players motivated. Its why in the NFL you see so many Superbowl winners not even get to the playoffs the following year (as well as drafting/cap salaries etc).

And you can never discount the experience of playoffs. Mahomes had a nice first playoff game, but Brady has more playoff wins than anyone has appearances in the playoffs. He has been there, done it and knows what is coming. That Chiefs defence is nothing to worry about, despite their good showing against the Colts. You basically have 2 bad defences who played well in their playoff win, which of them will keep the momentum?

Back and to the left.... back and to the left...... back and to the left

The Chiefs/ Mahomes will make us defend the whole pitch with their deep threats which is difficult for any team - but we cant let him extend plays - which he is very capable of - so you have the difficulty of not over committing to blitz like we did last week to old man Rivers yet at the same time getting pressure on him. If they could hit him early and hard on a bitter cold night the young lad might have a meltdown.

If Pats limit the run and first down yardage like they did last week and keep the pressure on Mahomes to throw and not let him extend plays for most of the night it's a big ask for him in a high pressure game. Alternatively, if the Pats score more than the Chiefs then they win also ... :cool: -- Jamming Hill and Kelce on the line as usual is also key... basically, just hit them physically all night.

Think the Pats D have settled down - and bar Gillmore's mistake for the first TD, the CBs have been going very well. Williams is running as well as Hunt but he's not any where near as dangerous in receiving - Hunt killed us with a couple of long receptions in the game earlier in the year ... Pats also ****ed up on special teams a couple of times to hand them scores - and a Brady turn over I think? A lot of non D mistakes coughed up scores that night - -

The Colts were shocking last weekend as well - their LBs were all over the place at times- yet they held the Chiefs to a lot of 3 and outs second half.

Like I said earlier - Chiefs are poor against the run and TEs. Think we will see more of Dorsett and possibly even Patterson make plays this week... That Ravens O bossed them in Arrowhead back in week 15 I think it was and should have won ... Brady will tear them apart... it will drive the haters on TFK nuts.

Shedite27

PhuckHugh wrote: »

Brady has played in cold many times but never that low?

It will be a night for patience and discipline --- No point having men being pushed passed Mahomes and he breaking from the pocket at ease. Keep him trapped in there and try and force mistakes from the young buck.

Divisional round 2004 was the coldest, best Titans in 4degrees game time (colder later in the game and if you include windchill.

In all, TB played 10 games below 23 degrees, he’s 8-2

Can’t find stats for Mahomes

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Good as time as any to have a look at this play again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFed5NPJo34

In that game Gronk had his 3rd biggest receiving tally of the season, and made 2 crucial catches - including the one above - on the final drives of the game, the other one being to set-up the game-winning FG. If all the talk of his retirement turns out to be true, then I hope he goes out with a bang and has a monster receiving game. I said at the start of the season that the thing I was looking forward to most was the Brady to Gronk connection; from one GOAT to another. A Patriot legend, and someone who was legitimately unstoppable at his peak. LFG.

ionadnapokot

Interesting preview. I think!
e.g.
“They ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs, per Football Outsiders, and they allowed 92 receptions for 894 yards and six scores to players at the position. Those figures were ranked 23rd, 28th, and 32nd in the NFL. (They allowed a 109.2 passer rating on non-screen passes to running backs, per Pro Football Focus, which, in case you are wondering, is very bad.)”

Not a clue what this gibberish means!

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-vs-chiefs-odds-pick-key-matchups-how-to-watch-stream-afc-championship-game/

In short they Predict Chiefs win.

So this is actually a bad preview....Patriots will win.
Because of the Bill fella.

Love his take on advanced metrics.
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/video/belichick-advanced-stats-ive-never-looked-one

Earleybird

Note to self, get a defibrillator for the SuperBowl game. Christ. What a game. LET'S GOOOOOO

me89

How do you sleep after that??
Amazing

Earleybird

me89 wrote: »

How do you sleep after that??
Amazing

Who cares. Not bother. I have work at 8. Irrelevant. Still refusing to peel myself off the couch!

me89

me89 wrote: »

How do you sleep after that??
Amazing

You don’t. Could go out and howl at that blood moon in the next hour or so though.....

Once again an amazing game involving NE. They just keep on coming.

Hazys

@JumboHart

Tom Brady has thrown the ball 90 times in the postseason. Against Bosa, Ingram, Jones, Ford and Houston. He's not been sacked yet. The #Patriots offensive line and legendary OL coach Dante Scarnecchia are killing it.

Son Of A Vidic

I don't even know what to say anymore about Tom Brady, what can you say? There are no words left in the dictionary. A lot of personnel moves before the season started, left me not expecting much from our offense this season. Yet were going to another Superbowl. The way things are going, we probably won't need to draft Brady's heir for another 4-5 years.

BizzyC

Amazing finish, I had a feeling that last one in possession would win this one.
Shout out to Mathew Slater for his MVP move of calling heads on the OT coing toss!

The transformations in the OL and Defense have been immense.

Rams will be a big challenge though, I think they have the ability to make things difficult.
Donald, Suh and Brockers will get Tom moving a lot with their interior rush, combined with a good secondary we'll probably see a lot of James White popping up.

bruschi

unbelievable win. serious effort. The defence had an outstanding first half and but for a Brady brain fart, they would have been up more comfortably at half time. But then the defence stalled and the offence stuttered, but when needed at the absolute most important time, Brady was there calling the shots. Great win. Those third down conversions were fantastic. They knew he was throwing to Edelman and Gronk, there was no one else to trust then, but they still couldnt stop it.

Brilliant win. I still dont fancy them to win, but they are there, and right now, thats all that matters.

irishrover99

Just watched the highlights of the game as i was just to tired last night to stay up.
No issues with any of the calls other than the face mask call on Brady which was a bit bogus but that is also down to the new rules.
Edelman did not touch the ball on the punt return and the Pats had a bogus call against them for pass interference near the end so they evened themselves out i think.
Looking forward to the Superbowl now and hopefully number 6 for number 12.

eagle eye

I've had a feeling for a few weeks now that we are going to win this thing.
Last name get when we had that fourth quarter drive needing the TD I had no doubt that the GOAT, Mr. Clutch, would do it.
Gotta say that the coin toss was crucial though as I think the Chiefs were likely to get a TD if they got it first.
Brady is the key though, you could see how fired up he was all through the game. Imagine being there looking at your teammate who has done it all many times before and there he is as pumped up as ever, it had to be infectious.
I want this one more than last year. I wasn't all that gutted when we lost to the Eagles because it was their first one. I wouldn't be that gutted if the Saints beat us but they are not there. A team who shouldn't be there are our opponents in this one. We are there by right, we deserve to win this one more than the opposition.

Doogs27

How good is it to have a legit run game to open things up. Michel has been outstanding these last few weeks. Burkhead was great when called upon. EDELMAN.... what can you say about that guy. He is as clutch as they come. And Gronk had some impact catches but continues to block like his life depends on it. So Selfless. Devlin, Van Noy, flowers, Gilmore, the whole Ó-Líne. Excellent when their number is called.

Time will catch up with Tom at some time, but for me, it's games like last night where you don't know if he is gonna come through and yet 3rd and 9 - missile, 3rd and 10 - pinpoint, 3rd and whatever - clutch throw. Those are the games that give me all of the feels.

What a team. LFG.

PhuckHugh

The AFC is just too easy for the Pats - hopefully someone can step up next year and push them.

j8wk2feszrnpao

PhuckHugh wrote: »

The AFC is just too easy for the Pats - hopefully someone can step up next year and push them.

I know you are taking the p!ss, but an OT win is as pushed as you can get.

Another Pats SB. Which of course means a ridiculously close game with tons of drama. Defibrillator on standby.