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January 2016 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -3.8c Moore Park

    Wont go much lower

    Yad need 24 hours of clear windless weather and we dont get that anymore.

    Its either rained or been windy every day in Sligo since november 27th


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A new low max (so far) of 2.3 C at Knock on Wednesday 13th.


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    #34
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,511 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    -3.8c Moore Park

    Wont go much lower

    Yad need 24 hours of clear windless weather and we dont get that anymore.

    Its either rained or been windy every day in Sligo since november 27th

    You will this weekend bro! There will be literally no isobars on the chart.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #35
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Hurray I love being wrong


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    #36
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,340 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    A new low max (so far) of 2.3 C at Knock on Wednesday 13th.

    Saturday gonna be a good shout of bettering that somewhere.


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update after two weeks ...

    IMT now 4.3 C after a colder week (3.1 C).

    PRC at 143% with this past week very close to average values (98%).

    SUN has increased to 109% with the week at 138%.

    Low max 2.3 C at Knock (again) on 14th.


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    #38
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭waterways


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Update after two weeks ...

    PRC at 143%

    It is ok if I just got the PRC right after two weeks.
    I would be happy if we get two more 'dry' weeks so that the slow drop in water level will continue.


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    #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Looking at model output to end of month, I would guess the following outcomes...

    IMT 5.0

    MAX 11.5

    MIN --4 (probably whatever today turns out to be, I saw several readings of -3 early on)

    PRC 110% (will continue to drop a bit, but no real dry spells either)

    SUN 115% (some sun will keep things about where they are now)

    MAX 2.3 (don't think that will be broken now, unless surprises await)


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    #40
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    There are always surprises

    Id say rain will be higher.

    We may get one more severe frost before feb 1


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    #41
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -3.8c still the min at moore park as suspected

    Theres never 24 hours clear to get cold enough.

    Athenry gave it a bloody good go but only eeked out -3.7c


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    #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Like you were saying though, a few more opportunities for a colder night, high pressure next week may start to frost over, even tonight (as I'm typing this) has seen colder air seeping in (-2 at Casement at 0500h), southern England as cold as it has been all winter (-7 in places).

    We may get to -5 or -6, but it's not a lock by any means. By the way, IMT after 18 days was 4.24 and may be marginally lower than that after 20 days, then close to my earlier estimate of 5 by end of the weekend ... but could fall back into the mid 4 range. Nothing like the last two months anyway.


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    #43
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Still all to play for

    Lots of rain wind frost sun left in january

    El nino ends in Spring so maybe some decent weather after that


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update after three weeks ...

    IMT on 4.5 C with the third week at 4.9 C.

    PRC is now 120% with a drier week (73%).

    SUN is at 92% with this past week rather dull (57%).

    MAX of 13.7 C yesterday at Casement.

    MIN stays at --3.8 C at Moorepark.

    Models have trended milder since I made some estimates a few days ago, so would now say IMT likely to finish around 5.5, PRC could gain a little to 125% and SUN will be challenged to get back to normal values, maybe 90% a realistic target now.
    Max may change from readings taken in early morning hours of today but otherwise may hold, same for low max and min.


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    #45
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Max of 14.6c today n Dublin airport though I was in swords in car and it went up to 16c for long periods.

    From Dublin to Sligo 15 or 14c the whole way back bar one or two spots at 13c


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yea verily 15.2 C was the max at Dublin on Sunday 24th.


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    #47
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,511 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Yea verily 15.2 C was the max at Dublin on Sunday 24th.

    Very close to mine of 15.1c

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #48
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Con's max temp looks a little low.


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    #49
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Con's max temp looks a little low.

    Sure does. Maybe Norma took it


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    #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT has soared to 5.7 with this mild fourth week (9.3 C)

    PRC has also increased to 142% with this past week at 210% of normal.

    SUN meanwhile has remained about the same at 90% now (the week at 85%).

    Will speculate that our finishing values will be more or less the same as these. May post a provisional scoring table around Sunday for your interest then confirming the numbers on Tuesday (all assuming I can log in here, having my troubles in that department but made it in today anyway).

    February contest thread is open and pinned for easy finding.


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    #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT finished at 5.8 C.

    PRC is confirmed at 139% of normal (range 106 at Ballyhaise to 192 at Cork)

    SUN is estimated to be 85% after a rather dull last three days that averaged about half the normal amount.

    The sunshine will be checked against monthly summary values and so will the max and min. Knock had a max of only 2.5 on the 30th but I don't think that breaks the existing mark of 2.3 for the bonus.

    Scoring will be posted tomorrow then after the Monthly Summary is available.


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    #52
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,511 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    IMT finished at 5.8 C.

    PRC is confirmed at 139% of normal (range 106 at Ballyhaise to 192 at Cork)

    SUN is estimated to be 85% after a rather dull last three days that averaged about half the normal amount.

    The sunshine will be checked against monthly summary values and so will the max and min. Knock had a max of only 2.5 on the 30th but I don't think that breaks the existing mark of 2.3 for the bonus.

    Scoring will be posted tomorrow then after the Monthly Summary is available.

    How was I so sunny compared to other parts of the country?

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Con's max temp looks a little low.

    You're right, looks like a typo on that, I typed 12.9 but the right value is 13.9. Will note this in the scoring table. Thanks.


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    #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    How was I so sunny compared to other parts of the country?

    Well I just noticed Dublin had more sun on the 30th than other stations, over 4 hours, so perhaps the same trend earlier? I will report on the variations when I get the final numbers tomorrow. I suspect the southwest stations will be lower than the eastern two.


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    #55
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final report on January, all the previously reported figures are confirmed except that sunshine computes to 90% from the monthly totals vs the daily normals (this is now as close as I can figure them from the MS) so we'll go with that, and the regional variations as promised do support what sryanbruen thought, Casement and Dublin were above their normal values at about 110%, the other four stations used ranged from 70% at Valentia to 97% at Shannon.

    So here's the scoring report for January:

    January 2016 scoring

    FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Lowest max___ TOTALS

    Tae laidir ______________25 _ 14*_ 18*_ 12 _ 09 _____ 08 _______ 86
    MrSkinner _____________ 22 _ 20*_ 16*_ 11 _ 05 _____ 09 _______ 83
    mickger844posts _ (-3) __ 21 _ 12*_ 16*_ 12 _ 10 _____ 10 __ 81-3=78
    omicron _______________22 _ 08*_ 11*_ 15 _ 10 _____ 10 _______ 76
    waterways _____________22 _ 14*_ 13*_ 14 _ 08 _____ 04 _______ 75

    Con Sensus ____________22 _ 10*_ 11*_ 15 _ 09 _____ 06 _______ 73

    john mac ______________23 _ 12*_ 11*_ 09 _ 09 _____ 08 _______ 72
    Sunflower3 ____________ 23 _ 07*_ 18*_ 05 _ 10 _____ 09 _______ 72
    Lumi _________________ 23 _ 09*_ 14*_ 11 _ 09 _____ 05 _______ 71
    Rameire _______________24 _ 12*_ 10*_ 09 _ 10 _____ 04 _______ 69
    JD__ (-2) _____________ 23 _ 10*_ 12*_ 13 _ 09 _____ 04 __ 71-2=69
    lostinashford (-10) ______ 21 _ 16*_ 15*_ 10 _ 09 _____ 08 __79-10=69
    Rikand ________________17 _ 16*_ 07*_ 15 _ 06 _____ 06 _______ 67
    Dasa29 _______________ 22 _ 04*_ 20*_ 09 _ 10 _____ 01 _______ 66
    Schadenfreudia _________25 _ 11*_ 12*_ 02 _ 08 _____ 07 _______ 65
    Bsal __________________20 _ 04*_ 19*_ 07 _ 09 _____ 06 _______ 65
    Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 10*_ 02*_ 11 _ 10 _____ 07 _______ 64
    Pauldry________________20 _ 06*_ 09*_ 02 _ 10 _____ 06 _______ 53
    DOCARCH _____________17 _ 10*_ 05*_ 07 _ 08 _____ 06 _______ 53
    Dacogawa _____________17 _ 10*_ 06*_ 05 _ 10 _____ 04 _______ 52

    Norma L ______________ 19 _ 10*_ 07*_ 02 _ 08 _____ 06 _______ 52

    200motels _____________20 _ 07*_ 02*_ 07 _ 08 _____ 02 _______ 46
    M.T. Cranium __________ 19 _ 08*_ 02*_ 08 _ 08 _____ 01 _______ 46
    Joe Public _____________ 06 _ 04*_ 03*_ 08 _ 04 _____ 03 _______ 28
    Sryanbruen ____________06 _ 06*_ 01*_ 04 _ 06 _____ 04 _______ 27
    ________________________________________________________

    * minimum progression rule applied to scoring (for MAX only slight adjustments were needed, MIN required a bit more help).

    Congrats to Tae laidir, MrSkinner and mickger844posts for leading the contest in our first month of 2016.


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