January 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

A new contest year begins (except for the four seasons portion which began with December 2015).

It was generally agreed that we should move the deadlines to the first of the month, however, I will do this in two stages. This first contest will have a deadline of 18z 1st of January after which penalties will be 1% every 2 hours until 18z 3rd after which it will jump to 2% per hour. In months to follow, the deadline will be more strictly observed at 0400h of the 1st, with 1% every 2 hours to end of the first, then 1% per hour thereafter.

Meanwhile, after some consideration, the elements for the contest will remain exactly the same. The IMT will be based on the five stations we have been using (Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park and Shannon), and the precip on eleven stations that include those five as well as Ballyhaise, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Valentia and Johnstown Castle. And the sunshine will be based on means from six locations, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon and Belmullet.

MAX and MIN will be generally based on daily reports from the main list of stations on the met.ie website, as confirmed in the Monthly Summary (anything secondary to those reported later will be outside the contest).

So without further ado, the contest opens with these six questions for you:

1. Monthly IMT for January (normal value 5.4)

2. Monthly MAX temp (normal value defined as 14.0)

3. Monthly MIN temp (normal value defined as -7.0)

4. Monthly PRC (as a percentage of normal which of course is 100%)

5. Monthly SUN (as a percentage of normal, 100%)

6. BONUS __ What will be the lowest daily maximum temperature reported from the two dozen or so stations on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" in latest weather? (if you aren't familiar with the range of stations, check the website before entering). By lowest daily maximum, we are looking for the lowest of all daily values for maximum temperature (not the lowest of all MIN temps which is question 3 of our contest). The normal value will be defined as -1.0 for the contest (I hope that's reasonably close anyway).

And here's my far-too-early predictions that could serve as a template:

M.T. Cranium _______ 5.2 __ 13.5 __ --8.0 __ 160 __ 100 ____ --2.4

Good luck, whatever happens on the first it's up to you to check things out and any edits made before 1800h on New Years Day will go into the table without penalty, anything edited after that would be subject to the late penalty that applies.

Bsal

Bsal _______ 5.3 __ 12.7 __ -4.5 __ 115 __ 95 ____ -0.5

dasa29

Dasa29 _______ 5.5 __ 12.5 __ -4.0 __ 120 __ 90 ____ -3.0

pauldry

Pauldry_______ 5.3__ 13.1 __ -6.5 __ 188 __ 90 ____ -1.0[/quote]

Schadenfreudia

Subject to late change....

Schaden _______ 5.8 __ 14.1__ -5.9 __ 101__ 101 ____ +1.0

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _______ 3.9 __ 13.2 __ -11.0 __ 105 __ 110 ____ -1.4

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____ 5.6 __ 13.4__ -4.6 __ 110__ 91 ____ +1.5

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 5.8 __ 14.3 __ -4.6 __ 131 __ 94 ____ 1.4

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 5.9__ 13.8__ -7.5__ 150__ 90____ +1.2

These figures are subject to change up to deadline time on the 1st.

200motels

200motels______ 5.3 __ 13.4 __ --8.1 __ 163 __ 98 ____ --2.1

dacogawa

Dacogawa _______ 5.0 __ 13.9 __ -7.1 __ 175 __ 90 ____ -1.5

Might make a change tomorrow if I've time. Happy New Year Everyone!

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 5.0 __ 13.8 __ -7.2 __ 115 __ 98 ____ -0.8

rameire

Rameire _______ 5.7 __ 14.2 __ --6.1 __ 120 __ 092 ____ -1.5

omicron

omicron _______ 5.5__13.5 __ -6.0 __ 140 __ 90 ____ 2.0

waterways

waterways _______ 6.1__ 14.3__ -5.8 __ 143 __ 98 ____ - 1.6

John mac

john mac_______ 5.6 __ 14.2__ -6.0 __ 120 __ 95 ____ 1.4

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 3.9 __ 12.9 __ -7.9 __ 119 __ 119 ____ -1.9

Rikand

Rikand ...... 5.0 ...... 14.5 ...... -7.0 ...... 140 ..... 111 ...... -1.0

mrskinner

Skinner........ 5.5 ...... 15.1 ...... -5.1 ...... 151 ....... 115 ...... +1.5

mrskinner

HNY everyone!

Lumi

Lumi _______ 6.0__ 13.6__ -5.7 __ 150 __ 95 ____ - 1.3

jd

JD_______ 5.6__ 13.9__ -5.9 __ 145 __ 95 ____ - 1.5

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _______ 6.2 __ 14.2 __ -5.0 __ 130 __ 90 ____ 2.1

lostinashford

M.T. Cranium _______ 6.2 __ 14.5 __ -5.5 __ 155 __ 93 ____ 1.4

Very late, sorry

Joe Public

lostinashford wrote: »

M.T. Cranium _______ 6.2 __ 14.5 __ -5.5 __ 155 __ 93 ____ 1.4

Very late, sorry

More penalties for cogging

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for January 2016

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Lowest max

lostinashford (-10) ______ 6.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.5 _ 155 _ 093 _____ +1.4
mickger844posts _ (-3) __ 6.2 _ 14.2 _ --5.0 _ 130 _ 090 _____ +2.1
waterways _____________6.1 _ 14.3 _ --5.8 _ 143 _ 098 ____ --1.6
Lumi _________________ 6.0 _ 13.6 _ --5.7 _ 150 _ 095 ____ --1.3
Jpmarn _______________ 5.9 _ 13.8 _ --7.5 _ 150 _ 090 ____ +1.2
Tae laidir ______________5.8 _ 14.3 _ --4.6 _ 131 _ 094 ____ +1.4
Schadenfreudia _________5.8 _ 14.1 _ --5.9 _ 101 _ 101 ____ +1.0
Rameire _______________5.7 _ 14.2 _ --6.1 _ 120 _ 092 ____ --1.5
john mac ______________5.6 _ 14.2 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 095 ____ +1.4
JD__ (-2) _____________ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 145 _ 095 ____ --1.5
Sunflower3 ____________ 5.6 _ 13.4 _ --4.6 _ 110 _ 091 ____ +1.5
MrSkinner _____________ 5.5 _ 15.1 _ --5.1 _ 151 _ 115 ____ +1.5

Con Sensus ____________ 5.5 _ 12.9 _ --6.0 _ 140 _ 095 ____ --1.0

omicron _______________5.5 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 140 _ 090 ____ +2.0
Dasa29 _______________ 5.5 _ 12.5 _ --4.0 _ 120 _ 090 ____ --3.0
200motels _____________5.3 _ 13.4 _ --8.1 _ 163 _ 098 ____ --2.1
Pauldry________________5.3 _ 13.1 _ --6.5 _ 188 _ 090 ____ --1.0
Bsal __________________5.3 _ 12.7 _ --4.5 _ 115 _ 095 ____ --0.5

Norma L ______________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 0.0

M.T. Cranium __________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ --8.0 _ 160 _ 100 ____ --2.4
Rikand ________________5.0 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 140 _ 111 ____ --1.0
Dacogawa _____________5.0 _ 13.9 _ --7.1 _ 175 _ 090 ____ --1.5
DOCARCH _____________5.0 _ 13.8 _ --7.2 _ 115 _ 098 ____ --0.8
Sryanbruen ____________3.9 _ 13.2 _ -11.0 _ 105 _ 110 ____ --1.4
Joe Public _____________ 3.9 _ 12.9 _ --7.9 _ 119 _ 119 ____ --1.9
________________________________________________________

23 regulars have given us a forecast, Kindred spirit is on holiday I believe, so Con Sensus for the time being is the 12th ranked forecast.

As for normal values, I just made one up for the low max, perhaps somebody has a way of checking into that. I believe I said the normal IMT was 5.4 and I must be thinking of December there, checked the monthly data page of met.ie and it's actually 5.2 (ranges from 4.5 to 6.0). If anyone set their IMT from my 5.4 mistake you have the right to ask for a reduction of 0.2 before the 5th. If you just picked a number regardless (like I do) then whatever yada yada no luck.

I think we're foreseeing another wet month, let's hope it isn't too wet. Otherwise the consensus seems to be very close to average values for January, bit of this and a bit of that. I hope "that" is snow.

waterways

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Kindred spirit is on holiday I believe

Yes, he is and should be banned because of letting us alone with the flooding of his garden pond.

lostinashford

Oh sh1t, swear I changed it???? Sure why would I cogging from MT

M.T. Cranium

It's okay, I had one the other way round in another contest, the guy changed the name okay but he submitted the same forecast as the previous poster. I don't think it was intentional, he probably thought about it for a while and forgot those weren't his numbers.

Anyway they both tied for about second last so it wasn't much of a play.

M.T. Cranium

So, after one week ...

IMT at 5.6 C

PRC at 187% of normal

SUN at 80% of normal

probably nothing to note yet on MAX, MIN or bonus (low max).

M.T. Cranium

Will be tracking the low temperature values this week, so far from Saturday 9th ...

low MIN was -2.6 C at Mountdillon

low MAX (for bonus) was 3.8 at Knock.

pauldry

-3.8c Moore Park

Wont go much lower

Yad need 24 hours of clear windless weather and we dont get that anymore.

Its either rained or been windy every day in Sligo since november 27th

M.T. Cranium

A new low max (so far) of 2.3 C at Knock on Wednesday 13th.

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

-3.8c Moore Park

Wont go much lower

Yad need 24 hours of clear windless weather and we dont get that anymore.

Its either rained or been windy every day in Sligo since november 27th

You will this weekend bro! There will be literally no isobars on the chart.

pauldry

Hurray I love being wrong

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

A new low max (so far) of 2.3 C at Knock on Wednesday 13th.

Saturday gonna be a good shout of bettering that somewhere.

M.T. Cranium

Update after two weeks ...

IMT now 4.3 C after a colder week (3.1 C).

PRC at 143% with this past week very close to average values (98%).

SUN has increased to 109% with the week at 138%.

Low max 2.3 C at Knock (again) on 14th.

waterways

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Update after two weeks ...

PRC at 143%

It is ok if I just got the PRC right after two weeks.
I would be happy if we get two more 'dry' weeks so that the slow drop in water level will continue.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at model output to end of month, I would guess the following outcomes...

IMT 5.0

MAX 11.5

MIN --4 (probably whatever today turns out to be, I saw several readings of -3 early on)

PRC 110% (will continue to drop a bit, but no real dry spells either)

SUN 115% (some sun will keep things about where they are now)

MAX 2.3 (don't think that will be broken now, unless surprises await)

pauldry

There are always surprises

Id say rain will be higher.

We may get one more severe frost before feb 1

pauldry

-3.8c still the min at moore park as suspected

Theres never 24 hours clear to get cold enough.

Athenry gave it a bloody good go but only eeked out -3.7c

M.T. Cranium

Like you were saying though, a few more opportunities for a colder night, high pressure next week may start to frost over, even tonight (as I'm typing this) has seen colder air seeping in (-2 at Casement at 0500h), southern England as cold as it has been all winter (-7 in places).

We may get to -5 or -6, but it's not a lock by any means. By the way, IMT after 18 days was 4.24 and may be marginally lower than that after 20 days, then close to my earlier estimate of 5 by end of the weekend ... but could fall back into the mid 4 range. Nothing like the last two months anyway.

pauldry

Still all to play for

Lots of rain wind frost sun left in january

El nino ends in Spring so maybe some decent weather after that

M.T. Cranium

Update after three weeks ...

IMT on 4.5 C with the third week at 4.9 C.

PRC is now 120% with a drier week (73%).

SUN is at 92% with this past week rather dull (57%).

MAX of 13.7 C yesterday at Casement.

MIN stays at --3.8 C at Moorepark.

Models have trended milder since I made some estimates a few days ago, so would now say IMT likely to finish around 5.5, PRC could gain a little to 125% and SUN will be challenged to get back to normal values, maybe 90% a realistic target now.
Max may change from readings taken in early morning hours of today but otherwise may hold, same for low max and min.

pauldry

Max of 14.6c today n Dublin airport though I was in swords in car and it went up to 16c for long periods.

From Dublin to Sligo 15 or 14c the whole way back bar one or two spots at 13c

M.T. Cranium

Yea verily 15.2 C was the max at Dublin on Sunday 24th.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yea verily 15.2 C was the max at Dublin on Sunday 24th.

Very close to mine of 15.1c

Tae laidir

Con's max temp looks a little low.

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Con's max temp looks a little low.

Sure does. Maybe Norma took it

M.T. Cranium

IMT has soared to 5.7 with this mild fourth week (9.3 C)

PRC has also increased to 142% with this past week at 210% of normal.

SUN meanwhile has remained about the same at 90% now (the week at 85%).

Will speculate that our finishing values will be more or less the same as these. May post a provisional scoring table around Sunday for your interest then confirming the numbers on Tuesday (all assuming I can log in here, having my troubles in that department but made it in today anyway).

February contest thread is open and pinned for easy finding.

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished at 5.8 C.

PRC is confirmed at 139% of normal (range 106 at Ballyhaise to 192 at Cork)

SUN is estimated to be 85% after a rather dull last three days that averaged about half the normal amount.

The sunshine will be checked against monthly summary values and so will the max and min. Knock had a max of only 2.5 on the 30th but I don't think that breaks the existing mark of 2.3 for the bonus.

Scoring will be posted tomorrow then after the Monthly Summary is available.