Property Market 2016

gaius c

Shedite27 wrote: »

I can afford to buy a house because I drive a 15 year beat up car

The problem is that it's easier to buy second, third, fourth houses than to buy your first. That is aiding the shift towards a "rentier class" who hoover up all the assets and use them to extract the wealth out of people who can't afford to acquire those assets.

See also: baby boomers v generation x/y

Villa05

gaius c wrote:

The problem is that it's easier to buy second, third, fourth houses.

I think the handbrake was pulled on that when the bubble burst. The establishment want to reinflate the bubble to relieve this brake.

What could possibly go wrong. No more boom and bust eh!

quadrifoglio verde

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

No they don't. The ecb rate is the interest on a holding fund for European banks. In other words, it's always been meant to be the worst place to out your money. Makes you think long and hard about the people who approved .25% trackers and if they had any idea of what they were doing. The banks themselves base their rates on a combination of factors.

Thanks for this.
However is it not fair to say that an increase In ecb interest rates would lead to a rise in mortgage rates?
Obviously it doesn't need to rise for them to increase standard variable, but I'd have thought a rise in the ecb rate would increase the standard variable rate

SarahMollie

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Thanks for this.
However is it not fair to say that an increase In ecb interest rates would lead to a rise in mortgage rates?
Obviously it doesn't need to rise for them to increase standard variable, but I'd have thought a rise in the ecb rate would increase the standard variable rate

The banks are making massive margins based on the current rates, so they would be able to absorb some increase in the ECB rate if they had to.

Unfortunately i think the only thing that will prevent this would be if some real competition came into the market.

Cuddlesworth

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Thanks for this.
However is it not fair to say that an increase In ecb interest rates would lead to a rise in mortgage rates?
Obviously it doesn't need to rise for them to increase standard variable, but I'd have thought a rise in the ecb rate would increase the standard variable rate

For the irish situation, an increase in the ECB rate would probably decrease the standard variable rate as tracker mortgages are loss leaders.

mel123

Anyone who is watching the market have any feedback on the sale end of it? What is actually happening with the houses (if any) at this stage that are for sale. Are they getting sold? Are they on the market for long or getting snapped up? Sale agreed price over or under? Havnt been watching it too much the past couple of months, just interested to know.

gaius c

SarahMollie wrote: »

The banks are making massive margins based on the current rates, so they would be able to absorb some increase in the ECB rate if they had to.

Unfortunately i think the only thing that will prevent this would be if some real competition came into the market.

Assuming the mortgage is being paid and they also have to pay for the ones that are not being paid.

Your second paragraphy contradicts your first. If the first part was really true, the second part would sort itself out very quickly.

The real truth is that new banks are reluctant to enter our optional payment mortgage market and the ones that are already in it are using the people who do pay to cover those who don't/won't.

SarahMollie

gaius c wrote: »

Assuming the mortgage is being paid and they also have to pay for the ones that are not being paid.

Your second paragraphy contradicts your first. If the first part was really true, the second part would sort itself out very quickly.

The real truth is that new banks are reluctant to enter our optional payment mortgage market and the ones that are already in it are using the people who do pay to cover those who don't/won't.

I don't see any contradiction.

I know why the banks are earning massive margins - to help them recover from the ongoing hangover from the crash, with not only non payers, but also tracker mortgages which are costing them money, even if the mortgage itself is not in default.

That said, the peak of the losses have already happened so from now on, new mortgages are all heavily stress tested and therefore likely performing, so their overall loan book is improvising all the time.

As things stableise, these margins will become less about covering other losses and more about making profit. Profit attracts new lenders into the market. My only worry on this is that this could take some time as so many got badly burned the last time, so might be careful about getting into Ireland again, and in the meantime, the Irish consumer isnt getting a great deal.

Sono

mel123 wrote: »

Anyone who is watching the market have any feedback on the sale end of it? What is actually happening with the houses (if any) at this stage that are for sale. Are they getting sold? Are they on the market for long or getting snapped up? Sale agreed price over or under? Havnt been watching it too much the past couple of months, just interested to know.

You should take a look at the price change section on myhome.ie it makes for very interesting reading, the majority of houses in there are dropping their prices for Dublin, I am not saying houses are not selling but the price drops are interesting and they are not bad houses either. I spoke to a real estate agent before Xmas and he told me that the property market was going to be really slow in January and what he has told me appears to be true, very little coming up for us in the areas we want to buy, just need to remain patient.

SarahMollie

Sono wrote: »

You should take a look at the price change section on myhome.ie it makes for very interesting reading, the majority of houses in there are dropping their prices for Dublin, I am not saying houses are not selling but the price drops are interesting and they are not bad houses either. I spoke to a real estate agent before Xmas and he told me that the property market was going to be really slow in January and what he has told me appears to be true, very little coming up for us in the areas we want to buy, just need to remain patient.

Just a note, but they are asking prices. Vendors often want to put their properties on for the higher end of the scale, but in time realize that this isnt necessarily the best option as a high price can limit interest. If they're trying to get more viewings going, they often reduce the asking price and then hope for a bidding war to get them back to where they wanted to be in the first place.

Property price register is a far more reliable barometer, although its slow to be updated. I bought my place in October 2015 and its not yet listed on the site.

Also, its normal for Jan to be slow. Everyone is recovering from christmas, and perhaps getting their properties ready to list for February. From when a person starts thinking about selling, to when the house appears on myhome.ie can take a few weeks.

I wouldn't read much into a quiet January. I was looking for about 4 years and Jan was always quiet. Ditto for the summer and December.

Sono

Well I hope I'm not looking for 4 years! I'll hang tight for February and hope some decent houses come on the market. The price register is slow at updating which is very annoying!

SarahMollie

Sono wrote: »

Well I hope I'm not looking for 4 years! I'll hang tight for February and hope some decent houses come on the market. The price register is slow at updating which is very annoying!

3x Sale Agreeds falling through each taking between 3-5 months, then the resulting heartbreak each time so a few months to get over that, then back out house hunting again, ages to find something new, and finally went sale agreed for a 4th time, took from June to October to complete, but thankfully it actually happened this time!

I wouldnt wish it on anyone

Sono

SarahMollie wrote: »

3x Sale Agreeds falling through each taking between 3-5 months, then the resulting heartbreak each time so a few months to get over that, then back out house hunting again, ages to find something new, and finally went sale agreed for a 4th time, took from June to October to complete, but thankfully it actually happened this time!

I wouldnt wish it on anyone

That would take its toll on anyone, glad you got there in the end.

80s Child

With regards to January being slow, is January not always slow? My crew are selling off land and the old home place and they were told to wait till February as January is always slow. Maybe they were advised this because it was land as opposed to property.

Sarah Mollie: congrats and beat of luck in the new gaff!

Word to the wise; do as much as you can before you move in! Otherwise, well, if you're like me, it'll take 3 years to get around to the 'storage room'!!

Selik

SarahMollie wrote: »

3x Sale Agreeds falling through each taking between 3-5 months, then the resulting heartbreak each time so a few months to get over that, then back out house hunting again, ages to find something new, and finally went sale agreed for a 4th time, took from June to October to complete, but thankfully it actually happened this time!

I wouldnt wish it on anyone

Also been sale agreed 3 times (all fallen through for various reasons) and hoping to go again this week and hopefully this time it sticks.

matrim

For the people who have been sale agreed why had it fallen through?

SarahMollie

matrim wrote: »

For the people who have been sale agreed why had it fallen through?

2x's bank blocking sale as vendor was in negative equity. AIB in both cases. I don't object to them blocking a sale per se, but I found it disgraceful how long I was strung along for in both cases. They were clearly watching the market and decided to wait for more money.
1x issue with the title of part of the land that the property was built on. My own solicitor advised me to pull out as it could have caused years of heartache.

brownbeard

CSO December figures released:

National: up 0.5% month on month
Dublin: down 0.5% month on month

http://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2015/

Selik

matrim wrote: »

For the people who have been sale agreed why had it fallen through?

1st time - House backed onto a halting site
2nd time - Building survey came back with 100k of unexpected works incl subsidence
3rd time - Vendor pulled out of sale just before contracts were being signed for various reasons (according to his solicitor and the agent) including thinking he was selling too cheaply, not being able to carry his tracker mortgage and having issues with the agent about the property he was buying from them as well. Meanwhile we had coughed up for a bank valuation and a building survey, not to mention the 2-3mths lost.

gaius c

matrim wrote: »

For the people who have been sale agreed why had it fallen through?

Asbestos but the EA told the next lot of wannabe buyers that it was our finance.

SarahMollie

Giles wrote: »

1st time - House backed onto a halting site

Forgive me for sounding cheeky, but how did you manage to go sale agreed without noticing the halting site? Did they only move in once you'd already paid your deposit?

Monife

Giles wrote: »

1st time - House backed onto a halting site
2nd time - Building survey came back with 100k of unexpected works incl subsidence
3rd time - Vendor pulled out of sale just before contracts were being signed for various reasons (according to his solicitor and the agent) including thinking he was selling too cheaply, not being able to carry his tracker mortgage and having issues with the agent about the property he was buying from them as well. Meanwhile we had coughed up for a bank valuation and a building survey, not to mention the 2-3mths lost.

How much do the surveys cost? Do you lose your deposit if the sale falls through?

SarahMollie

Monife wrote: »

How much do the surveys cost? Do you lose your deposit if the sale falls through?

Surveys cost typically between €300-500, depending on various factors such as the size of the property.

Deposits are returned regardless of who pulls out- they're usually at least €5k, often a lot more so if they werent refundable it would be quite a risk!

Archaeoliz

Sale agreed three times too.

1st time waited 5 months for vendor to issue contracts then he tried to make us up the sale agreed price before he would arrange them. We walked away. By this point we had discovered substantial planning non-compliance issues.
2nd time the bank valued the property at €65k less than the sale agreed price (and €80k less than asking). No negotiation as it was too far for them to consider dropping the price so we walked away.
3rd time.... due to complete either Friday or Monday. We hope.

We sold our previous house in December 2014 and have been renting (moved for work).

The_Conductor

gaius c wrote: »

Asbestos but the EA told the next lot of wannabe buyers that it was our finance.

Eeek!
Surely the EPA or another agency should have gotten involved.
The EA had no business trying to brush off an asbestos issue in that manner- thats ridiculous.

cmssjone

gaius c wrote: »

Asbestos but the EA told the next lot of wannabe buyers that it was our finance.

I'm not surprised by this and, if true, and I have no doubt it probably is, the EA responsible should be reported to the regulating body and never allowed to practise again. Unfortunately, I don't for one minute believe this would happen. EAs should be liable if they spout this nonsense and if they know that the property is defective and they have not disclosed this to a prospective buyer.

Selik

SarahMollie wrote: »

Forgive me for sounding cheeky, but how did you manage to go sale agreed without noticing the halting site? Did they only move in once you'd already paid your deposit?

In fairness the EA did mention it just before we went sale agreed and for some reason I didn't process the magnitude of it at the time (not helped by the bidding back and forth), which was also our first time going sale agreed and only after a month or two of looking.

It was also a Friday afternoon so we had the weekend think about it anyway and after much discussion (with people and online), research and a few chats with some potential future neighbours we decided it just wasn't worth the risk. We also dropped into the halting site itself (a settled one) for a quick look. We never even paid the deposit as it was agreed Friday and we backed out on Tuesday.

The house in question has been sale agreed 2-3 times since then and it currently for sale again at the moment.

The Mulk

gaius c wrote: »

Asbestos but the EA told the next lot of wannabe buyers that it was our finance.

Where was the asbestos, boiler flue, roof or something different?

Michael D Not Higgins

The Mulk wrote: »

Where was the asbestos, boiler flue, roof or something different?

Yeah this does matter, undisturbed asbestos won't cause a problem. The big issue is the EA not telling the following bidders, which will cost them a survey to find out.

I prefer the system here in Scotland where the vendor must pay for a Home Report, which includes a survey, and give this to bidders.

Bob24

matrim wrote: »

For the people who have been sale agreed why had it fallen through?

Surveyor suspected a possible issue with fire safety regulations both within the apartment and in the common areas; and recommended not to go ahead without obtaining recent fire safety certificates. Certificates were requested via our solicitor but never came.

It was an apartment in Longboat Quay a few months before it was all over the media. I can't thank the surveyor enough - I suspect they will sort the situation eventually but as of today the apartments there are probably impossible to sell (solicitor said the block has been blacklisted by several mortgage providers).