Property Market 2016

OfflerCrocGod

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Daft are publishing a Q3 property price report tomorrow, 7.6% average increase in the year to September nationally and 5.3% in Dublin. Seems to be acceleration across the board compared to Q2, but the increase in Dublin is particularly worrying.

This is asking prices though?

Sierra Oscar

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

This is asking prices though?

Yes, I should have specified that - Daft quarterly reports are based on asking price.

Alkers

OfflerCrocGod wrote:

This is asking prices though?

Everything at the sub 500k end of the market is easily fetching the asking price and them some. Its only anecdotal evidence but thats been our experience.

c montgomery

Simona1986 wrote: »

Everything at the sub 500k end of the market is easily fetching the asking price and them some. Its only anecdotal evidence but thats been our experience.

In Cork I have found many where the asking price has been lowered or auctioneer has advised that seller will take less. In alot of cases it looks like they are being overpriced. I'm looking at the 350-450k range.

Estate agent said anything in the sub 260k range is sold in weeks.

whiskeyman

Simona1986 wrote: »

Everything at the sub 500k end of the market is easily fetching the asking price and them some. Its only anecdotal evidence but thats been our experience.

In Dublin, this is my experience too over the past year.
Nothing has moved for less than asking.
In fact, we usually don't go in to bid unless we have 10% set aside to allow room to bid such is the madness.
And we're still looking as have been outbid each time...

In parts of Dublin I've noticed 10% increase no bother on asking alone.

Harvey Normal

Bob24 wrote: »

Just keep saying this in you head ;-)

Location should make sense though. Close to amenities. Near or in an urban village. Has a view.

Not in the same postcode as houses that have those attributes.

Bob24

Interesting comments on the Dublin market from David McWilliaws based on the data he has and his personal experience selling and buying: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/10/03/ireland-needs-to-avoid-another-property-bubble-at-all-costs

He's basically saying that in his opinion there is currently no bubble and prices in many parts of South Dublin are actually falling while rises come from less wealthy areas where people in their 30s are competing hard to buy more reasonably priced housing. He is also saying the gap between asking price and selling price is vastly different depending on he area (up to 30% above asking in North county Dublin and slightly below asking in south county Dublin) - which tells more the Daft and MyHome reports should be taking with a huge pinch of salt as they might mean different things for different areas.

jay0109

I simply don't see prices falling in the 'better' areas of Sth Dublin...actually the opposite. Families trampling over each other to get a decent sized home close to schools and work

homerjay2005

houses in my area were about €495k a year ago, they hit €545k 6 months ago and now, theres 3 hours for sale for €570k, €575k and €620k.

all of these are very average, small 3 bedroom houses that would sell for €70k in the countryside. its complete and utter greed, the estate agents are the most corrupt group in the country and its about time, these were regulated and controlled.

SarahMollie

Bob24 wrote: »

Interesting comments on the Dublin market from David McWilliaws based on the data he has and his personal experience selling and buying: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/10/03/ireland-needs-to-avoid-another-property-bubble-at-all-costs

He's basically saying that in his opinion there is currently no bubble and prices in many parts of South Dublin are actually falling while rises come from less wealthy areas where people in their 30s are competing hard to buy more reasonably priced housing. He is also saying the gap between asking price and selling price is vastly different depending on he area (up to 30% above asking in North county Dublin and slightly below asking in south county Dublin) - which tells more the Daft and MyHome reports should be taking with a huge pinch of salt as they might mean different things for different areas.

This is what I've long suspected (and am somewhat hoping for).

When you think about it, it makes an awful lot of sense. I lot of peoples budgets are going to be in that €300-400k space based on typical salaries and the CB rules, so anything in and around this price bracket is moving very quickly and often attracting bidding wars.

When you move above that price bracket however, its hard to see who would be affording homes around the €700-1m bracket for example. Perhaps you could get an exception on one of the CB rules, but regardless you need to have a big pile of cash/equity and really good salaries.

For example to pay €800k, perhaps you have some equity from a previous property that gives you your deposit of €160k - perhaps if you bought well in 2012 then this is possible.. Then as a couple/individual, you'd need to be earning €143k per year at 4.5 times income (exception) or €183k if no exception is granted. This is assumed based on gross numbers, so if a couple had any children, that would also have to be factored in.

Now I have no doubt that such buyers exist, but surely they can't be that plentiful. It makes sense that the most expensive markets are weak.

whiskeyman

homerjay2005 wrote: »

houses in my area were about €495k a year ago, they hit €545k 6 months ago and now, theres 3 hours for sale for €570k, €575k and €620k.

all of these are very average, small 3 bedroom houses that would sell for €70k in the countryside. its complete and utter greed, the estate agents are the most corrupt group in the country and its about time, these were regulated and controlled.

In fairness, it's simply supply and demand.
I don't know how the EAs are to blame?
Just because they may set the asking price, they aren't going to do so unless it's going to shift.
Market / Demand will dictate that.

Bob24

whiskeyman wrote: »

In fairness, it's simply supply and demand.
I don't know how the EAs are to blame?
Just because they may set the asking price, they aren't going to do so unless it's going to shift.
Market / Demand will dictate that.

Yes and no.

EAs are definitely not responsible for increases due to supply and demand.

But I would have no problem calling them greedy and borderline dishonest when that basically run auctions amongst people for whom that haven't checked fund availability and knowing bid are non-binding.

ThisRegard

Bob24 wrote: »

But I would have no problem calling them greedy and borderline dishonest when that basically run auctions amongst people for whom that haven't checked fund availability and knowing bid are non-binding.

I've been dealing with a few lately and each of them would not entertain a bid if you couldn't show proof of funds. One wouldn't even show a house to someone who hadn't got their own property sale agreed, never mind up for sale.

Harvey Normal

SarahMollie wrote: »

This is what I've long suspected (and am somewhat hoping for).

When you think about it, it makes an awful lot of sense. I lot of peoples budgets are going to be in that €300-400k space based on typical salaries and the CB rules, so anything in and around this price bracket is moving very quickly and often attracting bidding wars.

When you move above that price bracket however, its hard to see who would be affording homes around the €700-1m bracket for example. Perhaps you could get an exception on one of the CB rules, but regardless you need to have a big pile of cash/equity and really good salaries.

For example to pay €800k, perhaps you have some equity from a previous property that gives you your deposit of €160k - perhaps if you bought well in 2012 then this is possible.. Then as a couple/individual, you'd need to be earning €143k per year at 4.5 times income (exception) or €183k if no exception is granted. This is assumed based on gross numbers, so if a couple had any children, that would also have to be factored in.

Now I have no doubt that such buyers exist, but surely they can't be that plentiful. It makes sense that the most expensive markets are weak.

They'd probably have children if they needed such a house so without an exception so you are talking about 100k each.

That said there's a lot of wealth out there. I think I read 30,000 people were millionaires excepting property in Dublin.

Bob24

ThisRegard wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

But I would have no problem calling them greedy and borderline dishonest when that basically run auctions amongst people for whom that haven't checked fund availability and knowing bid are non-binding.

I've been dealing with a few lately and each of them would not entertain a bid if you couldn't show proof of funds. One wouldn't even show a house to someone who hadn't got their own property sale agreed, never mind up for sale.

I guess different agents operate differently, and my most recent first hand experiences are from about 2 years ago, but they have been very different from yours. Other poster have also reported stories about phantom bidders on this forum.

Even EAs themselves have complained that 2/3 of transactions are falling through after going sale agreed. This wouldn't happen if bidders were seriously vetted.

whiskeyman

Bob24 wrote: »

Even EAs themselves have complained that 2/3 of transactions are falling through after going sale agreed. This wouldn't happen if bidders were seriously vetted.

To be fair, in such a busy market, many bidders are keeping all options open.

I've just pulled out of a sale agreed because another property I wanted more just got accepted.
I've seen a few cases of this already. There are valid reasons they may fall through, so they need to suck it up.

Bob24

whiskeyman wrote: »

To be fair, in such a busy market, many bidders are keeping all options open.

I've just pulled out of a sale agreed because another property I wanted more just got accepted.

And that's exactly what I meant. You might have made that first property more expensive for other people by being one of the various unreliable buyers bidding against them. And possibly you could also have had gotten the second property for cheaper as several people who didn't really want it were bidding against you. With EAs operating in that way, once you go passed what seems like nice flexibility for buyers who are having remorse, the real winners by far are EAs and sellers as prices are partially getting inflated by phantom demand.

SarahMollie

Harvey Normal wrote: »

They'd probably have children if they needed such a house so without an exception so you are talking about 100k each.

That said there's a lot of wealth out there. I think I read 30,000 people were millionaires excepting property in Dublin.

Thats quite a lot alright! I've already bought on my own in the most crowded price bracket, so I guess I was hoping to have an easier time in a few years when it comes time to trade up with himself on the mortgage also Our only "dependent" is hairy and has 4 legs, so we might just manage.

ThisRegard

Bob24 wrote: »

And that's exactly what I meant. You might have made that first property more expensive for other people by being one of the various unreliable buyers bidding against them. And possibly you could also have had gotten the second property for cheaper as several people who didn't really want it were bidding against you. With EAs operating in that way, once you go passed what seems like nice flexibility for buyers who are having remorse, the real winners by far are EAs and sellers as prices are partially getting inflated by phantom demand.

But that's not a phantom demand, nor is it the fault of the estate agent. It's a complete pain in the hole for the vendor though.

Bob24

ThisRegard wrote: »

But that's not a phantom demand, nor is it the fault of the estate agent.

Yes when someone commits to buying several properties and ends up buying only one, it is phantom demand (showing interests for it - i.e. going for a viewing - is not the same as signing a contract saying you will buy it - i.e. going sale agreed ).
In many countries this type of thing doesn't happen as walking away from a sale agreement is more difficult and/or involves a financial penalty. Irish EAs are of course free not to do that if the law is not forcing them to and they don't see it as the best way to maximise their profits, but we are also free to call that kind of practise borderline dishonest on this thread :-)

SarahMollie

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes when someone commits to buying several properties and ends up buying only one, it is phantom demand (showing interests for it - i.e. going for a viewing - is not the same as signing a contract saying you will buy it - i.e. going sale agreed ).
In many countries this type of thing doesn't happen as walking away from a sale agreement is more difficult and/or involves a financial penalty. Irish EAs are of course free not to do that if the law is not forcing them to and they don't see it as the best way to maximise their profits, but we are also free to call that kind of practise borderline dishonest on this thread :-)

Just to point out - you don't sign a contract to go sale agreed. All it takes is a booking deposit (amount depends of value of the property) and thats it. You could theoretically delay things for a good few weeks (months if you don't mind incurring some solicitors fees) without ever signing anything.

Its really only when you're very close to closing that you start signing things and then it becomes difficult to walk away.

Rew

SarahMollie wrote: »

Just to point out - you don't sign a contract to go sale agreed. All it takes is a booking deposit (amount depends of value of the property) and thats it. You could theoretically delay things for a good few weeks (months if you don't mind incurring some solicitors fees) without ever signing anything.

Its really only when you're very close to closing that you start signing things and then it becomes difficult to walk away.

Depends on how you talk to but in reality the sale isn't agreed until their is a contract in place.

Bob24

SarahMollie wrote: »

Just to point out - you don't sign a contract to go sale agreed. All it takes is a booking deposit (amount depends of value of the property) and thats it. You could theoretically delay things for a good few weeks (months if you don't mind incurring some solicitors fees) without ever signing anything.

Its really only when you're very close to closing that you start signing things and then it becomes difficult to walk away.

Fair enough and thanks for correcting this. My point remains the same: if you are saying you will buy several properties whereas you just intend to by one, you are creating phantom demand by placing "fake" bets again others and taking several properties out of them market for some time whereas you are not really intending to buy them.

SarahMollie

Bob24 wrote: »

Fair enough and thanks for correcting this. My point remains the same: if you are saying you will buy several properties whereas you just intend to by one, you are creating phantom demand by placing "fake" bets again others and taking several properties out of them market for some time whereas you are not really intending to buy them.

no worries - I've actually more experience wtih this than I could ever want, having been sale agreed 4 times myself (I was let down by the vendor twice, and then the 3rd time the vendor/developer had tried to conceal an issue with the title deeds so I pulled out). It really means nothing. I've paid various booking deposits, ranging from €8k to €12k (the agents just make up a number I think) but once you've the cash, theres nothing stopping you putting down multiple deposits, as the law allows you (either party) to pull out for any reason up until contracts are signed, and that could be 2-3 months down the line.

I don't know of too many people having multiple deposits down, maybe an EA could comment, but really theres nothing stopping you from doing it. Personally, I'd be surprised if many people actually do this.

willbeuptuesday

David MacWilliams is talking sense yet again, it is clear to see that the more affordable 3 bed starter homes are in huge demand with first time buyers rather than 3 beds in south Dublin which require a larger deposit. The central bank rules have only slowed down the demand in the more affluent areas and demand in west and north Dublin is taking off. A house in my estate in Lucan went on the market at 300k and sold a week later for 315k. At the moment the rate of increase in these areas will be far higher than the 5% suggested by the Daft and Myhome reports.

lawred2

ThisRegard wrote: »

But that's not a phantom demand, nor is it the fault of the estate agent. It's a complete pain in the hole for the vendor though.

How is it not phantom demand?

68 lost souls

willbeuptuesday wrote: »

David MacWilliams is talking sense yet again, it is clear to see that the more affordable 3 bed starter homes are in huge demand with first time buyers rather than 3 beds in south Dublin which require a larger deposit. The central bank rules have only slowed down the demand in the more affluent areas and demand in west and north Dublin is taking off. A house in my estate in Lucan went on the market at 300k and sold a week later for 315k. At the moment the rate of increase in these areas will be far higher than the 5% suggested by the Daft and Myhome reports.

Part of the increase in demand in these areas is buyers that want to buy in South Dublin cant anymore

ThisRegard

lawred2 wrote: »

How is it not phantom demand?

The guy wanted the property until they saw another they preferred. Had the bid been completely made up in order to drive up the price then that's a phantom.

asteroids over berlin

i think in the older ex council estates, there are good opportunities for the first time buyer, most of these have eventually matured into good neighbourhoods etc. We got lucky and bought a 3 bed property in one a few years back, very happy, our aim was to sell up and buy something bigger but we are quite contenct for the forseeable future.

asteroids over berlin

whiskeyman wrote: »

To be fair, in such a busy market, many bidders are keeping all options open.

I've just pulled out of a sale agreed because another property I wanted more just got accepted.
I've seen a few cases of this already. There are valid reasons they may fall through, so they need to suck it up.

Your actions are contributing to pressurising the market, if everybody done this, prices would rocket, as you said it is already happening. If you weren't sure, don't bid on it and more so, don't go sale agreed. Foolish and selfish behaviour, unfortunately the way the world has gone!