Property Market 2016

Bob24

Sleepy wrote: »

True, but it would be nice to see some more thorough interpretation of the report included rather than just re-printing the introduction...

And I would add that reprinting part of a report is fine if it is interesting to readers, but rephrasing a few sentences to make it look different from other papers is what I think doesn't give a great impression of what kind of value a journalist can add (the difference between various papers is genuinely a slightly different wording for some sentences, but the information given and the structure of the paragraphs is exactly the same).

athtrasna

And I would add that this is a property market thread

Bob24

Glad to see someone who makes some sense about the givernement's plans to "help" FTBs is given a voice in the media:
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-plan-to-help-first-time-buyers-will-backfire-warns-economist-1.2804606

"Plans to help first-time buyers in the budget are likely to increase house prices without making it easier for those struggling to get on the property ladder, economist Ronan Lyons has warned."

kippy

Bob24 wrote: »

Glad to see someone who makes some sense about the givernement's plans to "help" FTBs is given a voice in the media:
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-plan-to-help-first-time-buyers-will-backfire-warns-economist-1.2804606

"Plans to help first-time buyers in the budget are likely to increase house prices without making it easier for those struggling to get on the property ladder, economist Ronan Lyons has warned."

In fairness I have seen that reported elsewhere in the past two weeks.

It's 100% an accurate reflection on what will happen.
Increasing supply in areas where it is needed most is the only way to help FTB's
Giving access to more money just increases prices.

OfflerCrocGod

“Any LTI restriction that is binding in Dublin will not be binding in Leitrim, while any LTI restriction that is binding in Leitrim will be prohibitively binding in Dublin.”

“Therefore, it offers no protection against the kind of bubble Ireland experienced in the decade to 2007,” he said.

Unless this was taken out of context I don't agree with him. I strongly doubt that the bubble would have been anywhere as large if we'd had the current CB rules in place from 2000. To take his example, yes I can buy much more house in Leitrim than I can in Dublin but I would have to commute 2hr 30mins into Dublin. 5 hours every day in the car should be plenty off putting for most people (and that's without factoring in the expense of such a daily trip). It's almost as if he's saying wages in Leitrim and Dublin are comparable, which they aren't.

Muff Richardson

Bob24 wrote: »

Glad to see someone who makes some sense about the givernement's plans to "help" FTBs is given a voice in the media:
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-plan-to-help-first-time-buyers-will-backfire-warns-economist-1.2804606

"Plans to help first-time buyers in the budget are likely to increase house prices without making it easier for those struggling to get on the property ladder, economist Ronan Lyons has warned."

kippy wrote: »

In fairness I have seen that reported elsewhere in the past two weeks.

It's 100% an accurate reflection on what will happen.
Increasing supply in areas where it is needed most is the only way to help FTB's
Giving access to more money just increases prices.

But it will increase government popularity and buy votes from those that are short sighted and ignorant to what will happen.

Noonan has even admitted potential price hikes. You could say it's a baffling decision by coveney, but it's not, votes and popularity are all they want.

seamus

Is it just me or does there seem to be some weird disconnect between the media and reality when it comes to reporting on housing at the moment?

Last wednesday there was a report, may have been from the CIF, that mortgage approvals were down 5%, which was an indicator that the market was in trouble, prices could start to fall again, and banks need to be able to lend more freely to ensure that demand is kept up, which will encourage builders will build.

Yesterday on Today FM there was a discussion piece about how the banks won't lend to developers because there's not enough profit in house building, so nobody's building.

Yet anyone who's been in the market over the last 2 years can see that demand is huge, and only growing. There is no fear whatsoever that the number of buyers is going to suddenly dry up because they can't get mortgage approval for €400k.

And while demand is still way over supply, there is still far more building going on at present than any point in the last 5/6 years. And going by the prices being asked, there are extremely healthy profits being made.

Is this vested interests using their media contacts to try to push an open-wallet policy on the banks again and push up prices?

OfflerCrocGod

Yep, building is ramping up again because profits are there to be made (at least in the Dublin area) but we still keep hearing that the CB rules are killing the market. Thankfully, the CB aren't buying the complaints by the sound of it http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0925/819101-central-bank/

lawred2

3 A rated houses sitting in our estate for 18 months waiting for a buyer... Price hasn't moved a cent.

This is North County Dublin where prices are 'rocketing' apparently

If those houses are to sell - it's only one direction that they will have to go.

draiochtanois

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The_Conductor

draiochtanois wrote: »

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Location and lack of ease of transport/access to Dublin city centre, more likely. I've one colleague who would rather take the train up from Galway every morning- than drive from where she could afford to buy in North County Dublin.........

lawred2

draiochtanois wrote: »

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No. 2015 builds.

lawred2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Location and lack of ease of transport/access to Dublin city centre, more likely. I've one colleague who would rather take the train up from Galway every morning- than drive from where she could afford to buy in North County Dublin.........

Nah it's not that - it's 2 mins from a Dart P&R and serviced by two buses to Connolly

I'm sure what you are alluding to definitely applies in certain parts of NCD but not really Malahide/Portmarnock.

The_Conductor

lawred2 wrote: »

Nah it's not that - it's 2 mins from a Dart P&R and serviced by two buses to Connolly

Ask yourself- if you were a prospective buyer- would you want to buy one- at the prices they are seeking?

If they want to flog property in North County Dublin- there is a reasonable expectation on the part of prospective purchasers- that they will be at a reasonable discount to other areas they could possibly purchase in with the same budget......... I'm not denigrating where-ever it is- I'm simply pointing out that some areas are more desireable than are others.

seamus

The_Conductor wrote: »

Location and lack of ease of transport/access to Dublin city centre, more likely. I've one colleague who would rather take the train up from Galway every morning- than drive from where she could afford to buy in North County Dublin.........

Yeah, I used to work with a guy who commuted from Co. Louth to Dublin City every day. Got some express bus or something, door-to-door was maximum 120 minutes each way, usually less.

His justification was that this allowed him to buy a house near to where his friends and family were, on a relatively meagre salary, and his wife could stay at home with the kids. He could cut 45 minutes off his commute by moving to NCD, but he'd never have been able to afford a property on a single salary and he'd be 45 minutes away from everyone he knows.

In lawred's case it sounds like price is probably the factor. Somebody has sunk serious money into the properties and has a baseline figure they're not going below. If they can afford to service the loans on the properties, then from their point of view it makes no sense to sell at a loss or a low price in a high-demand market. Buyers will appear eventually.

gaius c

lawred2 wrote: »

3 A rated houses sitting in our estate for 18 months waiting for a buyer... Price hasn't moved a cent.

This is North County Dublin where prices are 'rocketing' apparently

If those houses are to sell - it's only one direction that they will have to go.

No firesales. Buyers have to pay through the nose to bail the banks out by the back door.

Bob24

seamus wrote: »

Is this vested interests using their media contacts to try to push an open-wallet policy on the banks again and push up prices?

Is that a rhetorical question? ;-)


To be honest I find if very difficult to understand the market. As you said not all signs are positive but on the other hand for the type of property I am looking at there is indeed upwards pressure.

But yes - regardless of how the market is doing there is definitely strong lobbying with the governement and the media to try and force the central bank to stop doing what it thinks is necessary to give some financial stability of Ireland and prevent another banking crisis.

lawred2

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, I used to work with a guy who commuted from Co. Louth to Dublin City every day. Got some express bus or something, door-to-door was maximum 120 minutes each way, usually less.

His justification was that this allowed him to buy a house near to where his friends and family were, on a relatively meagre salary, and his wife could stay at home with the kids. He could cut 45 minutes off his commute by moving to NCD, but he'd never have been able to afford a property on a single salary and he'd be 45 minutes away from everyone he knows.

In lawred's case it sounds like price is probably the factor. Somebody has sunk serious money into the properties and has a baseline figure they're not going below. If they can afford to service the loans on the properties, then from their point of view it makes no sense to sell at a loss or a low price in a high-demand market. Buyers will appear eventually.

It's nothing else. However I know for a fact that the developers are already in the black even with these three outstanding. Neighbour went to school with them.

draiochtanois

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Muff Richardson

is there a dreamers thread for property on this forum similar to the car sales on motoring?...if so point me to it, this definitely belongs there and I don't care about the location. the house is a joke, inside and out. €550k

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/sandymount/26-derrynane-gardens-sandymount-dublin-1241972/

draiochtanois

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SarahMollie

Sandymount though.... its the definition of a desirable location. Yes, you'd need about another €100k to make it really nice, but then again you'd never need a car!

Its a bit like buying a site almost.

ThisRegard

It's pretty poor alright, a lot of money would need to be modernise it, and you're not even getting any decent views, that looks like the Greyhound stadium behind it? Unless you're a builder, I personally don't see the value there, other than the location. But that's what some people pay for I suppose.

lawred2

draiochtanois wrote: »

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It's a former council house in a council estate.. it's a semi d and it's hardly a sizeable site...

And it seems to have some sort of industrial complex to the rear and it's bounded by a pathway on one side..

Someone would REALLY want that D4 address to pay over half a million for that.

The_Conductor

lawred2 wrote: »

It's a former council house in a council estate.. it's a semi d and it's hardly a sizeable site...

And it seems to have some sort of industrial complex to the rear and it's bounded by a pathway on one side..

Someone would REALLY want that D4 address to pay over half a million for that.

Its next door to Ringsend- and is in the catchment area for two Deise schools (schools with additional resources for deprived areas.......- I'm not joking.......)

You're paying for an address- purely for an address- and the value of that address I'd argue is questionable.........

matrim

lawred2 wrote: »

And it seems to have some sort of industrial complex to the rear and it's bounded by a pathway on one side..

That's the sportsco gym behind it. It includes astro turf pitches which I think are the reason for the extra high fences

lawred2

matrim wrote: »

That's the sportsco gym behind it. It includes astro turf pitches which I think are the reason for the extra high fences

Close your eyes and it's almost like St Tropez

asteroids over berlin

lawred2 wrote: »

Close your eyes and it's almost like St Tropez

lol. They will probably get it though the way the market is going. Highly desirable area even if it is at the Ringsend side.

whiskeyman

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

Highly desirable area even if it is at the Ringsend side.

It's a stonethrow from Google / Facebook / Hipster heaven of Grand Canal Dock area.
Put some money into it, and get great rent, or sell it on.

IvoryTower

would i be right in saying I would need a 55k deposit and pay 2k a month for 35 years to live in a council house