5 main reasons for our improving economy none of which are Fine Gael or Labour

power101

1) ECB interest rates are at the lowest ever recorded and with some rates even gone negative. This leads to huge savings for companies and allows them extra cash for expansion and hiring. It also encourages spending of cash rather than saving as there is a much better return.

http://www.euribor-rates.eu/euribor-charts.asp

2) Sterling has strengthened against the Euro by 20% since 2011. This makes Irish products cheaper for UK buyers and as they are our largest export destination is has led to large increase in sales to the UK , tourists visiting from the UK and positive cross border trade from Northern Ireland.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=5Y

3) The Dollar has strengthened against the Euro by over 25% since 2011. This means it has become much cheaper for US companies to set up here and to purchase products from compared to the UK as Sterling has only reduced by 7% in the same time frame. It also means it is much cheaper for US tourists to visit and spend money here.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=5Y#

4) The price of oil has fallen by 65% over the past two years. We are one of the most import dependent countries in Europe spending €6billion and having to import almost 90% of our fossil fuels . While some of this fall is offset by the rising Dollar there has still been a very significant saving of just under 50%. This means cheaper fuel prices and energy costs for consumers and businesses and again more money to spend in the Irish economy.
http://www.iiea.com/blogosphere/eu-energy-import-dependence
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=2y

5) The ECB started the first quantitative easing(Purchasing 60 billion in bonds per month) which is forcing investors out of bonds and into other investments for better returns. It also has the effect of lowering the cost of borrowing.

Any of of these would give a decent improvement to the Irish economy but all together they are supercharging it. None of these are in any way controlled by Fine Gael or Labour. They are completely outside influences and for them to suggest they have anything to do with the improving economy is a joke. The past four years have been mired by controversy after controversy by Fine Gael and Labour. They do not deserve any more time in charge.

Nichard Dixon

Some of the above points are true of other Euro countries, which are not showing Irish growth rates. However, Fine Gael and labour did not cause the growth rate, but neither have they done anything serious to prevent it. If they are tossed out at the election who do you propose replace them? FF probably wouldn't do much different now, but have made a mess in the past. SF and the other loopers certainly would kibosh the growth rate as they would actively pursue policies to do so.

BoJack Horseman

You just simply cannot be the fastest growing economy in the continent, for 2-3 years in a row by accident.

power101

@Bojack- You can. What polices have they actually brought in that would bring the kind of growth we're experiencing. The vast majority if not all of the growth is related to the above points.

@Nichar Dixon As I said above the UK and US are a huge destination for our exports. We are the only country in the Euro with English as the primary language. The US are for the majority of times going to invest and grow in Ireland with the weak Euro and save 18%(25-7) which also reduces their exchange risk in Europe than invest in the UK which has held it's value with the Dollar over the last several years. I don't hold any belief in FF but I will never believe that with FG we wouldn't have ended up in the same scenario. They even proposed to reduce stamp duty on property purchases further in their 2007 manifesto. All the parties were happy to fuel the boom.

Personally I would be for the Social Democrats and reasonable independents. Will they make up a full government, absolutely not but the current historic parties need to be put on notice that the public expects more. More forward thinking, more honesty and openness in governance and sustainable growth built on solid foundations, not growth built on temporary outside factors that can't be controlled.

BoJack Horseman

power101 wrote: »

@Bojack- You can. What polices have they actually brought in that would bring the kind of growth we're experiencing. The vast majority if not all of the growth is related to the above points.

As everyone (I'm sure) is aware, politics is not always about constantly doing something.... very often, not doing something foolish is much more valuable.

Sure, the government ignored the opposition and cut the cost of running the state.... This was certainly proven to be the right thing.

And yes they solved the budget crisis, again in disagreement with the opposition, whose alternative plan would have necessitated even further tax rises.
This decision, to fix the deficit, was by far the biggest factor in reducing bond rates, Ireland got its house in order...
Bond rates were collapsing well before QE kicked in in March...


The government again ignored the sage advise from the opposition & cut income taxes for each of the last two years, helping to ensure that work pays & providing confidence that workers can spend more of their money.

They've continued to ignore the opposition and have kept Ireland as a pretty good place to do business, by keeping taxes on employment, investment & profit globally competitive.... thusly by ignoring the opposition, Irelands exports & business investment continue to grow as does its associated taxes & employment.

And very importantly they have continued to ignore the noisier fringes of the opposition & have declined to default on our national debt, have not left the EU or EZ & will not be nationalising the nations financial services industry.

As I said.... one could spend 5 years doing nothing & by simply ignoring the oppositions empty talk, end up a whole lot better off!

BoJack Horseman

And the only thing going for the SD's is their honesty.... parties rarely admit to such staggering tax rises, but they went for it straight out the door.

Godge

power101 wrote: »

@Bojack- You can. What polices have they actually brought in that would bring the kind of growth we're experiencing. The vast majority if not all of the growth is related to the above points.

.

I think the biggest achievement of the FG/Labour coalition was to ignore the siren calls from the likes of AAA/PBP and Sinn Fein who wanted them to go down the path of ruin that Syriza ran down.

If you want to look at two cases, compare and contrast Greece and Ireland.

omicron

The recovery was in full swing before these factors came into play, they've certainly helped keep it going but they're not the only factors.

GDP growth was at 7% in Q2 2014, the highest in Europe (source), when:

- QE wasn't even being hinted at
- Interest rates were marginally higher at 0.25%
- Oil was at $115/barrel
- EUR/USD was around 1.35
- EUR/GBP was around 0.80

Godge

power101 wrote: »

1) ECB interest rates are at the lowest ever recorded and with some rates even gone negative. This leads to huge savings for companies and allows them extra cash for expansion and hiring. It also encourages spending of cash rather than saving as there is a much better return.

http://www.euribor-rates.eu/euribor-charts.asp

2) Sterling has strengthened against the Euro by 20% since 2011. This makes Irish products cheaper for UK buyers and as they are our largest export destination is has led to large increase in sales to the UK , tourists visiting from the UK and positive cross border trade from Northern Ireland.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=5Y

3) The Dollar has strengthened against the Euro by over 25% since 2011. This means it has become much cheaper for US companies to set up here and to purchase products from compared to the UK as Sterling has only reduced by 7% in the same time frame. It also means it is much cheaper for US tourists to visit and spend money here.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=5Y#

4) The price of oil has fallen by 65% over the past two years. We are one of the most import dependent countries in Europe spending €6billion and having to import almost 90% of our fossil fuels . While some of this fall is offset by the rising Dollar there has still been a very significant saving of just under 50%. This means cheaper fuel prices and energy costs for consumers and businesses and again more money to spend in the Irish economy.
http://www.iiea.com/blogosphere/eu-energy-import-dependence
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=2y

5) The ECB started the first quantitative easing(Purchasing 60 billion in bonds per month) which is forcing investors out of bonds and into other investments for better returns. It also has the effect of lowering the cost of borrowing.

Any of of these would give a decent improvement to the Irish economy but all together they are supercharging it. None of these are in any way controlled by Fine Gael or Labour. They are completely outside influences and for them to suggest they have anything to do with the improving economy is a joke. The past four years have been mired by controversy after controversy by Fine Gael and Labour. They do not deserve any more time in charge.

I think the more important question facing the electorate is which party or parties do you think will be best placed and positioned to take advantage of these benign conditions and grow jobs and taxes to fund public services?

That certainly isn't AAA/PBP or Sinn Fein, but which of the others do you go for?

Sleepy

As usual with Irish elections it's a case of the "least worst option" and that, unfortunately, means Fine Gael.

JustTheOne

You see at the end of the day people only care about themselves and their families in life.

And who could blame them?

So all this talk from the opposition about siteserv or the fennelly report or enda exaggerating in Brussels doesn't really matter to people.

They can shout as loud as they want and try make out people care but deep down people only care for their own security.

What comes first is the economy and jobs.

People just want to provide for their families. Seems the unemployment rate is the lowest its been in 7 years today at 9% this shows were going in the right direction.

Stability, jobs and economy.

Thats why fg will be voted back in.

jimmycrackcorm

power101 wrote:

@Bojack- You can. What polices have they actually brought in that would bring the kind of growth we're experiencing. The vast majority if not all of the growth is related to the above points.

But as had been pointed out, if your points are correct then why hasn't every country in Europe experienced the same growth?

power101 wrote:

Personally I would be for the Social Democrats and reasonable independents. Will they make up a full government, absolutely not but the current historic parties need to be put on notice that the public expects more. More forward thinking, more honesty and openness in governance and sustainable growth built on solid foundations, not growth built on temporary outside factors that can't be controlled.

You mean you are for not only people with no track record in government, but that have a track record in objecting to anything that is unpopular.

The devil you know....

mistermouse

Northern Ireland Deal yesterday will result in a change of Corporation Tax there to match the Republic. Although it still will not have a huge effect in how Multinational Investment will be forthcoming, it will undoubtedly have some, plus there will be some push by governments to show peace works and a push on investment

If seen to be successful it may bring up the Corporation Tax argument again if not in Europe as a whole, certainly in Britain

Having said that in Donegal, emigration is a big issue and any investment/purchases or businesses starting to invest is down to buying poorly performing/receivership assets very cheaply

Not all areas are seeing any improvements at all, business and lifestyle are seriously different than before, some of which is good re-balancing, most will never be near where they should or could be again, and that in a county that didn't see much of the celtic tiger in the first place.

BoJack Horseman

mistermouse wrote: »

Not all areas are seeing any improvements at all, business and lifestyle are seriously different than before, some of which is good re-balancing, most will never be near where they should or could be again, and that in a county that didn't see much of the celtic tiger in the first place.

The thing is, people need to recognise that the days of infinite housing developments & a small factory on every town are over.

Donegal is the oft used example of continued economic torpor but seems the most often in denial that its economic challenges are caused locally.... ie: urbanisation.

Urbanisation is the whole ball game.
Taking Donegal as an example, the biggest town, Letterkenny is the same size as Greystones.... the 2nd biggest town, Buncrana, at just 7,000 is genuinely as big as a Dublin housing estate.

No matter what a government can do... There is no inventive that will make a CEO look at Donegal's glorified villages and consider it viable for investment.

Donegal has one of the countrys highest populations, but they are scattered more than any other county.... its just not sustainable.
Donegal makes itself a tough case for investment.

The top 5 Settlements in Donegal account for 23% of its population.
A still rural, but more urbanised county like Wicklow, 50% of its population are in the top 5 settlements... much more sustainable.

Jim2007

power101 wrote: »

More forward thinking, more honesty and openness in governance and sustainable growth built on solid foundations, not growth built on temporary outside factors that can't be controlled.

Ireland is a small open economy that is fact of life which no government can change without having a severe impact on our economic well being. And anyone who tells you that they can come up with a growth model that will not be impacted by external factors is pulling the wool over your eyes.

But having said that, Ireland's growth is based on a long tradition of being a net exporting country and there is nothing temporary about that. True at the moment we benefit greatly from being able to trade in an undervalued currency, but we have also faired fine in times when the Euro has strong as well, this is because we export high value added goods. So nothing temporary about the strength of Irish exports no matter what the Left would like to claim otherwise.

As for the government, for the recovery to continue all that is required is a steady hand and to not get to smart and want to change things. In that since the government is a success!

keane2097

Lack of investment in tourism in Donegal is mind boggling.

Godge

keane2097 wrote: »

Lack of investment in tourism in Donegal is mind boggling.

The biggest return on government investment in tourism over the last few years has been the Wild Atlantic Way. A small investment in signposting, branding and advertising has brought a lot of tourists to the region.

However, the Government doesn't build hotels, restaurants or other tourist attractions. The locals need to get up on their feet and do the hard work that other regions (think West Clare or West Cork) have done.

Godge

Godge wrote: »

The biggest return on government investment in tourism over the last few years has been the Wild Atlantic Way. A small investment in signposting, branding and advertising has brought a lot of tourists to the region.

However, the Government doesn't build hotels, restaurants or other tourist attractions. The locals need to get up on their feet and do the hard work that other regions (think West Clare or West Cork) have done.

THAT is the nub of the problem. They want someone else to do it and pay for it for them.

johnnyskeleton

Mod Note:

Lack of promotion of tourism in Donegal is not really on point when the issue is the extent to which the government can claim responsibility for the improvement in the economy. Feel free to start another thread on Donegal if there is more to say on the issue.

macraignil

Nichard Dixon wrote: »

SF and the other loopers certainly would kibosh the growth rate as they would actively pursue policies to do so.

I don't understand why you think only FF and FG/Labour would follow policies that allow growth in the economy. What makes these parties so unique in common sense?

beard_grower

macraignil wrote: »

I don't understand why you think only FF and FG/Labour would follow policies that allow growth in the economy. What makes these parties so unique in common sense?

well they have a reasonably positive view of private enterprise and are vaguely prudent when it comes to public spending ( thought FF believe in spending it when they have it )

neither approaches apply to the likes of SF or the other hard left parties , they are openly hostile to private enterprise and oppose any kind of public spending cuts

beard_grower

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The thing is, people need to recognise that the days of infinite housing developments & a small factory on every town are over.

Donegal is the oft used example of continued economic torpor but seems the most often in denial that its economic challenges are caused locally.... ie: urbanisation.

Urbanisation is the whole ball game.
Taking Donegal as an example, the biggest town, Letterkenny is the same size as Greystones.... the 2nd biggest town, Buncrana, at just 7,000 is genuinely as big as a Dublin housing estate.

No matter what a government can do... There is no inventive that will make a CEO look at Donegal's glorified villages and consider it viable for investment.

Donegal has one of the countrys highest populations, but they are scattered more than any other county.... its just not sustainable.
Donegal makes itself a tough case for investment.

The top 5 Settlements in Donegal account for 23% of its population.
A still rural, but more urbanised county like Wicklow, 50% of its population are in the top 5 settlements... much more sustainable.

donegal has scenic beauty which beats connemara and donegal is no more sparsely populated than county galway overall

galway city has managed to brand itself as a hipster paradise and has also managed to draw in multinationals , outside galway city , there are no populations of any significance until either east towards athlone or south towards ennis

donegal is close to derry which is as big as limerick city , i think donegal could be targeted for growth , donegal folk are very clever and with a bit of a lift would deliver , its isolated in an irish sense but its not alaska or siberia

mistermouse

I was just taking Donegal as an example to demonstrate that the growth experienced in the economy has not spread to all parts, nor is it felt in quite alot of the country.

Growth is still fairly based on FDI and even where there has been investment in say Letterkenny in the past year it has not been down to the current Government , rather infact due to the selling off of businesses in receivership cheaply by the banks

There are some very successful Multinationals in Donegal by the way, most of whom have expanded in smaller ways, so its not an issue of that cannot be done.
It will prove interesting if the NI corporation tax rate helps or hinders the whole border region. The governments pledge of stg£25 million to the A5 route that serves Donegal to Dublin won't actually benefit Donegal at all as it has been earmarked for the Derry to Strabane section - therefore another thing that Donegal for example can point to that this government cannot take credit for.
A good road to Dublin would however help lift some of the isolation of the county and perhaps leave this region a little less cynical.

As for Clare/Kerry and Cork comparisons, up until the Wild Atlantic Way, there was a huge bias in Tourism marketing towards the South West - has been for well over 30 years

macraignil

beard_grower wrote: »

well they have a reasonably positive view of private enterprise and are vaguely prudent when it comes to public spending ( thought FF believe in spending it when they have it )

neither approaches apply to the likes of SF or the other hard left parties , they are openly hostile to private enterprise and oppose any kind of public spending cuts

I am aware of a policy to oppose spending cuts in the parties you are talking about. I did not hear the details of how they are openly hostile to private enterprise. Can you explain how these parties have been hostile to private enterprise as it does sound like a strange outlook to have?

Maybe better public services might attract investment as well by making Ireland a nicer place to work in. Multinational businesses must also consider if their staff will be able to afford to rent somewhere to live. By being so slow to address supply shortages in the house market is the current "prudent" government limiting the potential growth in the Irish economy?

power101

omicron wrote: »

The recovery was in full swing before these factors came into play, they've certainly helped keep it going but they're not the only factors.

GDP growth was at 7% in Q2 2014, the highest in Europe (source), when:

- QE wasn't even being hinted at
- Interest rates were marginally higher at 0.25%
- Oil was at $115/barrel
- EUR/USD was around 1.35
- EUR/GBP was around 0.80

Using your own source how about the 4.1% growth before that quarter or 3.7% after? GBP had strengthened by 7% over the previous year and interest rates at .25% were close to the lowest they had ever been. They have since fallen even further.

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

But as had been pointed out, if your points are correct then why hasn't every country in Europe experienced the same growth?

You mean you are for not only people with no track record in government, but that have a track record in objecting to anything that is unpopular.

The devil you know....

As I said the US as a proportion of their eurowide investments prefers to invest in English speaking countries. Ireland with the Euro is weaker than sterling and with low corporation tax they are more likely to invest here. Let's talk about FG's track record:

1. Paying the Anglo bondholders in full. Not being about to negotiate a cut to them as they promised.
2. Health Crisis which is beyond a joke and we haven't even entered winter yet.
3. Closing 139 rural garda stations which has exacerbated rural crime for a saving as low as €500k?! Burglary up by 8.4% in year to June 2015
4. It came out that Enda Kenny was told in 2007 about Forsey corruption relating to planning but failed to do anything about it.
5. Shatter using privileged information to name Mick Wallace as having being cautioned for using his mobile phone.
6. Fine Gael Youth Controversy ongoing
7. Denis O Brien/IBRC/ Siteserv and the weird relationship with FG ongoing
8. Irish Water ongoing
9. Rent crisis ongoing

Naming just a few that I could remember off the top of my head

Jim2007 wrote: »

Ireland is a small open economy that is fact of life which no government can change without having a severe impact on our economic well being. And anyone who tells you that they can come up with a growth model that will not be impacted by external factors is pulling the wool over your eyes.

But having said that, Ireland's growth is based on a long tradition of being a net exporting country and there is nothing temporary about that. True at the moment we benefit greatly from being able to trade in an undervalued currency, but we have also faired fine in times when the Euro has strong as well, this is because we export high value added goods. So nothing temporary about the strength of Irish exports no matter what the Left would like to claim otherwise.

This is a bit of a strange post in relation to what I said. I was commenting that it was large outside forces that have caused the improvement in our economy and nothing that FG & Labour have done. I'm all for an open economy. I could never see any other option. If you took even a second to look at the currency charts of euro versus Sterling/Dollar you would see that our economy was at its worst with our lowest exports when the Euro was strong and the reason exports are making record levels now is because the Euro is very weak against both currencies. FYI I'm Center right.

JustTheOne

macraignil wrote: »

I am aware of a policy to oppose spending cuts in the parties you are talking about. I did not hear the details of how they are openly hostile to private enterprise. Can you explain how these parties have been hostile to private enterprise as it does sound like a strange outlook to have?

Maybe better public services might attract investment as well by making Ireland a nicer place to work in. Multinational businesses must also consider if their staff will be able to afford to rent somewhere to live. By being so slow to address supply shortages in the house market is the current "prudent" government limiting the potential growth in the Irish economy?

By openly saying they will make multinationals pay more corporation tax like Apple.

Wealth tax and taxing people more who are earning over 100,000.

Dob74

omicron wrote:

- QE wasn't even being hinted at - Interest rates were marginally higher at 0.25% - Oil was at $115/barrel - EUR/USD was around 1.35 - EUR/GBP was around 0.80

QE has saved the economy.
The austerity hawks will deny this but it is simple fact.

Thank you Mario Draghi simple as.

Arbiter of Good Taste

JustTheOne wrote: »

By openly saying they will make multinationals pay more corporation tax like Apple.

Wealth tax and taxing people more who are earning over 100,000.

And then you have Ruth Coppinger calling for the nationalisation of private enterprises such as Dell

power101

JustTheOne wrote: »

By openly saying they will make multinationals pay more corporation tax like Apple.

Wealth tax and taxing people more who are earning over 100,000.

Arbiter of Good Taste wrote: »

And then you have Ruth Coppinger calling for the nationalisation of private enterprises such as Dell

Nationalization of any private enterprise will never work unless you have a large valuable unmovable resource and have the expertise to extract it. Even then you run the huge risk of pushing other private enterprise out of the country. Ireland has no such resource and as such it would be crazy to ever nationalize anything bar an emergency like the banking collapse when it threatens the wider economy and failing banks needed to be nationalised.

You say paying more corporation tax. I say paying the same low corporation tax as every other Irish company out there. We all pay higher taxes in this country when they pay substantially lower taxes.Only 2.5% instead of 12.5% the last time I checked. That's 19 billion they haven't paid. That's 19 billion in extra taxes or worse services Irish people have to endure while at the same time its anti competitive for every Irish company that might try to ever compete with any part of their business.

How can we ever expect more Irish companies to compete globally when these US companies can undercut them in our own home country simply because of the huge difference in the amounts they have to pay in tax. I want Irish companies to be able to compete with foreign companies in Ireland at the very least. At the moment with tax avoidance there is a strange scenario where its cheaper for a foreign company to setup and grow in Ireland than it is for Irish companies.

On the deal done with Apple there is no doubt in my mind that Apple will lose the case and have to pay us back money. These deals happen all over Europe however they are limited to a max of 1-5 years not the now 24 years going on with apple. Also there was no basis for Apples profits either. They just agreed a figure they wanted to pay up until 2007. It's not much better now.

Victor

power101 wrote: »

1) ECB interest rates are at the lowest ever recorded and with some rates even gone negative.

2) Sterling has strengthened against the Euro by 20% since 2011.

3) The Dollar has strengthened against the Euro by over 25% since 2011.

4) The price of oil has fallen by 65% over the past two years.

5) The ECB started the first quantitative easing(Purchasing 60 billion in bonds per month) which is forcing investors out of bonds and into other investments for better returns. It also has the effect of lowering the cost of borrowing.

You promised us 5 reasons. 1, 2, 3 & 5 are essentially the same reason.

Arbiter of Good Taste

power101 wrote: »

Nationalization of any private enterprise will never work unless you have a large valuable unmovable resource and have the expertise to extract it. Ireland has no such resource and as such it would be crazy to ever nationalize anything bar an emergency like the banking collapse when it threatens the wider economy.

You say paying more corporation tax. I say paying the same low corporation tax as every other Irish company out there. We all pay higher taxes in this country when they pay substantially lower taxes.Only 2.5% instead of 12.5% the last time I checked. That's 19 billion they haven't paid. That's 19 billion in extra taxes or worse services Irish people have to endure while at the same time its anti competitive for every Irish company that might try to ever compete with any part of their business.

How can we ever expect more Irish companies to compete globally when these US companies can undercut them in our own home country simply because of the huge difference in the amounts they have to pay in tax. I want Irish companies to be able to compete with foreign companies in Ireland at the very least. At the moment with tax avoidance there is a strange scenario where its cheaper for a foreign company to setup and grow in Ireland than it is for Irish companies.

On the deal done with Apple there is no doubt in my mind that Apple will lose the case and have to pay us back money. These deals happen all over Europe however they are limited to a max of 1-5 years not the now 24 years going on with apple. Also there was no basis for Apples profits either. They just agreed a figure they wanted to pay up until 2007. It's not much better now.

Do you honestly think that large multinationals would invest in Ireland over every other developed country, if we did not make it attractive from a tax perspective? Despite what the IDA want us to believe, our universities are mediocre, infrastructure is abysmal and employee costs are crippling. We speak English? So what. Most of my working life is spent dealing with people, of which English is not their first language. Other than a couple of specific countries (Japan and India mainly) there is no communication problem. Everywhere speaks English nowadays.

At the end of the dat, indigenous Irish companies are not competing directly with multinationals for their Revenue. The markets are different, and even with a differential in effective tax rates, the Irish companies are paying one of the lowest rates worldwide. I remember when the Irish corporation tax rate was 32%. At that time the IDA was throwing cash at inward investors in the form of grants. At least with a low tax rate, all companies can benefit somewhat.

I would be very surprised if Apple lose the case. It would send a warning shot to potential inward investors that Ireland is not so business friendly, which is exactly what we don't want to happen.