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RWC 2015 final - All Blacks vs. Wallabies - Saturday 4pm
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28-10-2015 9:23pm#1
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GENERAL MUSINGS
On the 27th May 1987, my mum took me out of school for the afternoon and down to Lancaster Park. We sat in what became the Hadlee Stand (tickets must have cost less than $20 I reckon), and watched NZ defeat Fiji 74-13 in the 3rd match of Pool 3 of the inaugural rugby world cup. I don’t remember much of the match – I vaguely recall Green & Gallagher scoring tries for fun – but I do remember I had a great time. My dad insisted I play a year of soccer before I took up rugby, so my own glittering (ha ha) but relatively short-lived career didn’t get going until the following year. But I was already hooked on rugby.
THE CURRENT TOURNAMENT
The 1987 tournament might have been where it all began, and I have followed varying amounts of all the subsequent editions, but England 2015 is definitely the best so far. I must have watched close to 40 matches, and I think Japan vs South Africa will probably linger longest in the memory, certainly for the pool stages anyway. It has been pleasing to see the gap narrow between all the sides, probably only Namibia and Uruguay still count as genuine minnows, and even then they gave it a good lash.
The final brings together arguably the 2 most in-form teams over the course of the tournament, something which hasn’t happened since maybe 2003. Both teams generally like to play an expansive style, so the game promises to be entertaining and worthy of a final. The sides have met 3 times previously at the RWC, with semi-final defeats for NZ in 1991 (that pass from Campese) and 2003 (Mortlock intercept, “4 more years”), while NZ won in 2011 (Dagg does a Superman impression).
THAT MAN POCOCK
Not since Jonah Lomu has one man so defined a tournament and been so integral to his side’s chances of success. David Pocock has come back from not one but two serious knee injuries to give a tour de force at the breakdown. The combination of Pocock and Hooper, colloquially known as “Pooper” was too much for NZ in Sydney. In a brave, but criticised move, Australian coach Michael Cheika basically gifted NZ the Bledisloe Cup by breaking this duo up for the return match in Auckland, but no doubt he had an eye on an eventual meeting later in the year. How NZ deal with this threat may well define the victor.
THAT MAN CHEIKA
Just over a year ago, NZ defeated Australia, and a forlorn Ewen McKenzie headed down the tunnel and shortly after offered his resignation. Only days before their planned Northern tour, Cheika took the reigns, and Australia lost to France, Ireland and England. Since then, Cheika appears to have been amazingly canny behind the scenes, reinventing his coaching panel, securing the rights to Giteau & Mitchell, defeating NZ, winning the rugby championship, and reaching the RWC final from the pool of death. It’s quite amazing stuff.
STEVE
Hansen has also done a very good job. Being part of the 2007 coaching line-up, he appears to have taken virtually all of the lessons on-board. In particular, his decision to use the pool games for a specific purpose, and not just to blitz teams off the park, looks a wise one. He has also proven to be an excellent selector, mutterings about the form of Carter and SBW among others, have proven to be unfounded.
AUSTRALIA STRENGTHS
It’s fair to assume Australia should have some sort of an edge at the breakdown. In saying that, NZ has looked to win turnover ball in other ways than the classic “7 over the ball”, Dane Coles’ rip against France being an example.
The Australian scrum has also been a revelation, although things went less smoothly in the last 2 outings. NZ’s scrum is solid, but it definitely the least dominating aspect of their play.
I also think Australian confidence is an asset. No matter what the sport, or the odds, an Australian will always rate himself a chance.
NZ STRENGTHS
The NZ lineout has been superb this tournament. Not only highly reliable on their own throw, but also a thorn in the opposition side, notably at several key moments during the semi-final.
Less fatigue. NZ has only really had 2 tough matches – Argentina in week 1, and SA last week. In contrast, only Uruguay counted as a soft match for the Wallabies, and they looked fairly spent in the last 15 minutes vs Argentina.
Experience at closing out close matches. NZ has only lost a few matches since 2011, but their have been a number of close calls against South Africa, England, Australia and Ireland.
I’m not sure whether a strength or a potential weakness, but last games in black for McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Smith & Mealamu must play a role.
LUCK
Both teams have been pretty fortunate with injuries this tournament. NZ lost Woodcock, which most Kiwis thought was a blessing in disguise, while Aussie said goodbye to Skelton and Palu (also probably a blessing in disguise).
TTACTICS
I expect Aussie to try it on at the scrum, and also use Pocock at the back of the maul. Obviously the breakdown, and they have shown a few nice set moves this competition too.
For NZ, I won’t be surprised at a bit of tactical kicking and some pressure on Foley’s clearances. I also expect a bit of ball up the middle, rather than instantly spinning it wide, a tactic which didn’t work for a somewhat naïve Argentina. I then expect a bit more expansion as the game wears on, with NZ’s impressive bench coming into play.
PREDICTION
I’m not going to make one, other than to say it should be close. On paper at least, potentially the best final to date, which would be a stellar way to round of the 2015 edition.
Disclaimer: being a newby and all to this forum, I have no ability to link, attach, or generally spruce up the format. But the content is first-rate, so you'll just have to live with that.
Mod Edit: 29/10 Teams Added29
Comments
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Good write up and like you I think it will be close, but like to dream that it will be otherwise with the All Blacks running wild.
It's going to be an emotional one for those of us who are All Blacks fans - Valete to Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Maa Nonu, Conrad Smith and more besides....but the future is looking bright with the Sam Cane ready (and now able) to take the big man's place at 7, Kieran Read to take on the Captain's mantle, Beauden Barrett the new heir apparent at fly-half - not to mention Julian Savea and Nehe Milner-Skudder. Whatever the outcome on Saturday it's been a privilege to watch this team in action over the years.
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It seems written in the stars that Aussie will win. Cheika has turned this team around, they've beaten the All Blacks this year, escaped the group of death and wriggled out of a potential loss to Scotland.
That said, I hope the All Black's come out of the blocks firing, score a couple of quick tries, then put the squeeze on Australia for a slow, painful death
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Good write up and like you I think it will be close, but like to dream that it will be otherwise with the All Blacks running wild.
It's going to be an emotional one for those of us who are All Blacks fans - Valete to Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Maa Nonu, Conrad Smith and more besides....but the future is looking bright with the Sam Cane ready (and now able) to take the big man's place at 7, Kieran Read to take on the Captain's mantle, Beauden Barrett the new heir apparent at fly-half - not to mention Julian Savea and Nehe Milner-Skudder. Whatever the outcome on Saturday it's been a privilege to watch this team in action over the years.
The New Zealand succession planning has been incredible.
Look at Barrett -35 caps.
Savea - 40 caps
Sexton has 56 , Murray 42 and O Mahoney 35
Barrett is 6 years younger than sexton and already on 35 caps.0 -
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Hansen on the Aussies refusing to call them the all blacks: "They can call us whatever they want. Being Aussies, they probably will"
I personally think this thing of calling the All Blacks anything but the All Blacks is totally lame. Lakers, Yankees, Rebels etc. If you require your team to call them NZ rather the ABs to get over some sort of "mental block", then I dunno, maybe the issues are deeper. Smacks of that PR disaster guy from the 05' Lions tour, the guy who worked for Tony Blair.
In case anyone cares (probably not...), my 2c for a NZ flyhalf to look out for in terms of the Lions 2017 is Damian McKenzie (Chiefs). Sopoaga, Cruden and Barrett will all be there or thereabouts, but the latter 2 have kicking issues (distance, accuracy) and Barrett can't control a game at the level required for international rugby. His bench appearances are invariably at fullback or NZ these days.0 -
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