Residual values on leaf

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

The myth that Tesla loses money on cars had been bandied about a bit. The average profit margin on the Model S is almost 25% of an average $92,000 selling price. They make money on every single car off the line.
The myth the Tesla is losing money on each car comes from idiots and short sellers looking at the profit and loss statement and dividing by the number of cars delivered. In doing this they fail to account for Tesla counting deliveries in a much more conservative manner than other car makers and also fail to understand that the company is production limited and spending huge amounts of money on building production capacity, i.e. growing the company.

In fact taking out just three things out of the expenses: the new paint facility and tooling, model 3 r&d and the gigafactory would put Tesla almost $1 billion in the black this year.

GM has stated they will hit $145/kWh for the Bolt's pack. At $90/kWh fitting a 300ish km electric drivetrain to a car is going to be cheaper in absolute terms than giving it an ICE.

I dont accept that, spending as you mentioned would be capitalised and would not appear in operating profits

to quote Reuters

Tesla reports its finances in a different way from the Detroit automakers. Using the generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, used by GM or Ford, Tesla's operating losses per vehicle have steadily widened to $14,758 from $3,794 in the second quarter of 2014.

Musk himself has said it will be 2020 before they are making enough cars to make an operating profit

Padraig Mor

Deleted User wrote: »

But you shouldn't go into a PCP contract expecting more value then the GFMV..

I don't really agree with this. PCPs are generally expected to be structured in such a way as to give you sufficient 'equity' at the end of the lease to allow you to continue to a new PCP at the same monthly rate without forking over a deposit. For instance, I know that VW strongly prefer a deposit in the region of 15% as, with the GMFV fixed at X%, this is the figure most likely to lead to sufficient equity at the end of the PCP to go straight onto a new one without forking over extra cash (the most likely model for a new sale). Of course, a marque may choose to artificially 'boost' the GMFV in order to give lower headline monthly payments, but this is likely to bite the customer in the ass after three years, when they have to fork out a few grand out of their own pocket to go to a new PCP.

In the case of the Leaf, it's a real shot in the dark. To me, the prices for 3 year old cars don't look too healthy at all. However, there's such low numbers it's hard to predict how things will look in a few years. I do think it's reasonably possible that EVs may see a surge in interest (and thus value) as second cars in 'normal' families over the next year or two. However, it's entirely possible that ESB 'charging for charging' may put paid to that. Who knows!

At my current mileage, I'm looking like exceeding my PCP limit by 30k km after three years, so let's hope those values remain strong!

robnet77

Deleted User wrote: »

But you shouldn't go into a PCP contract expecting more value then the GFMV.

If you get regular finance and the car devalues to 8K and on PCP my GFMV is 12 K, with 75,000 Kms or something like that anyway, then at the end you loose more than I do on PCP.

The catch is the mileage, if I go over by 15,000 Kms then I have to pay 1,200 Euro's, not the end of the world but money I rather put into the new one or whatever is available at the time.

... on the other hand, by doing those miles with your diesel car, you are forking out about 1.100 euros for fuel (gasoline), thus balancing out the additional money you would owe the dealer.

Now, doing this way you might lose out for these reasons:

1) the dealer might write off the additional money in the end, while the money spent on gasoline is spent for sure

2) your diesel car will be 15.000km older (when your PCP for the Leaf is over), therefore its residual value is lower and its maintenance costs get higher.

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

I dont accept that, spending as you mentioned would be capitalised and would not appear in operating profits

They are currently financed by a line of credit which is impacting operating profits. They had a $2.3 billion bond issue to provide capital for some of the Gigafactory expenses (the initial construction cost, not including the massive expansions they've already started building which they are paying for from cash and their credit lines), tooling for the Model X, Model S line expansion and purchase of several of their tooling suppliers.

BoatMad wrote: »

Musk himself has said it will be 2020 before they are making enough cars to make an operating profit

Actually in July Musk stated that they'd "be able to" reach profitability on GAAP next year. He repeated that in an interview in September at the new factory in NL. I'm pretty much certain they won't reach GAAP profitability.

My point is that people are making out that the cars themselves are unprofitable and that additional production would hit Tesla's cash reserves badly, when the opposite is true.

If you look at carzone you will find the Leaf is holding it's value better than most cars bar the Golf which is to be expected. I don't think that's too bad + the leaf usually has a much higher spec.

mordeith

Just a quick question here guys. Looking into buying a 2nd hand Leaf and was wondering would waiting till (early) 2016 make any significant difference?

mordeith

mordeith wrote: »

Just a quick question here guys. Looking into buying a 2nd hand Leaf and was wondering would waiting till (early) 2016 make any significant difference?

To 2nd hand prices you mean ? Probably not much of a difference in early 16.

What year are you thinking of getting ? the 2014+ has a better battery.

mordeith

[Deleted User] wrote: »

To 2nd hand prices you mean ? Probably not much of a difference in early 16.

What year are you thinking of getting ? the 2014+ has a better battery.

Yeah, early 16. Looking at an 11 or 12 realistically. It's as a second car for my wife going to work. About a 20 min drive each way, and going to local town, only about 15 mins away.

mordeith

mordeith wrote: »

Yeah, early 16. Looking at an 11 or 12 realistically. It's as a second car for my wife going to work. About a 20 min drive each way, and going to local town, only about 15 mins away.

I don't think it would make much of a difference to a 11 or 12.

I think ye could up fighting over it !

thierry14

mordeith wrote: »

Just a quick question here guys. Looking into buying a 2nd hand Leaf and was wondering would waiting till (early) 2016 make any significant difference?

What if something goes wrong?

Drive train and battery warranty is finished in 2016 for 2011 model?

Battery degradation is a problem with the early models from the sounds of it, most of them are down to 8 or 9 bars from 12 when new ( warranty doesn't cover degradation above 8 bars )

Don't think it would matter with 15-20 mins each way , should last a fairly long time, and it can be fast charged if needs be.

I think most Irish 2011-12's have still 11-12 bars.

The Leaf is turning out to be pretty reliable but out of warranty repairs will be expensive and you will most likely have to wait some time for repairs as parts are hard to find because production demands most of the parts available.

BoatMad

I think if you can pick one up very cheap , it might be worth considering. However you need to benchmark it against a similar ICE , ie calculate total cost of ownership and look at pay back time scales. ( unless you're a fan boy )

We simply don't know what condition a 11or 12 leaf will be in , in the subsequent years. It could end up effectively worthless.

Personally I think buying them outside a PCP from new, is a leap into the dark.

mordeith

BoatMad wrote: »

I think if you can pick one up very cheap , it might be worth considering. However you need to benchmark it against a similar ICE , ie calculate total cost of ownership and look at pay back time scales. ( unless you're a fan boy )

We simply don't know what condition a 11or 12 leaf will be in , in the subsequent years. It could end up effectively worthless.

Personally I think buying them outside a PCP from new, is a leap into the dark.

Yeah, we'd be looking at a cheapish one if at all possible. The thing is we don't 100% need the car as I get the bus to work every day, so it's really I suppose, more of a lifestyle choice (not to sound all wankerish about it ). Of course, having a 2nd car would be a bonus. If we don't get an EV then would wouldn't be getting an ICE at all.

mordeith

mordeith wrote: »

Yeah, we'd be looking at a cheapish one if at all possible. The thing is we don't 100% need the car as I get the bus to work every day, so it's really I suppose, more of a lifestyle choice (not to sound all wankerish about it ). Of course, having a 2nd car would be a bonus. If we don't get an EV then would wouldn't be getting an ICE at all.

If you're not doing big mileage then get some PCP quotes on a new and year old Leaf SV .

You'd be surprised how little your repayments are PM V finance, bank loan etc. You can get different quotes from different dealers , you can decide the deposit and alter it based on what you can pay per month.

At the end you can still buy it or get a new lease, it gives you the 3 years to think about it.

Of course the cheapest thing to do is buy a cheap ICE that can't devalue a lot and if you do small mileage you won't spend so much on fuel , the Prius is one of the best 2nd hand cars available, ultra reliable and proven beyond doubt but there isn't anything like driving electric.

I could have kept the prius but after 4 years I wanted a change and wouldn;t have bought new if I was paying for petrol and diesel it would habe been silly money PM for commuting. The savings on petrol or diesel moe than make it worth my while at my mileage.

300 euro's to do 20,000 Kms based on my efficiency if I charge at home on night rate for all my driving but it's cost me a lot less due to free public charging.

I get a Guaranteed Minimum Future Value based on the rock bottom price Nissan expect to get and this is your balloon so you add your deposit, monthly payments + the GFMV and this is the cost to buy.

mordeith

Deleted User wrote: »

If you're not doing big mileage then get some PCP quotes on a new and year old Leaf SV .

You'd be surprised how little your repayments are PM V finance, bank loan etc. You can get different quotes from different dealers , you can decide the deposit and alter it based on what you can pay per month.

At the end you can still buy it or get a new lease, it gives you the 3 years to think about it.

Of course the cheapest thing to do is buy a cheap ICE that can't devalue a lot and if you do small mileage you won't spend so much on fuel , the Prius is one of the best 2nd hand cars available, ultra reliable and proven beyond doubt but there isn't anything like driving electric.

I could have kept the prius but after 4 years I wanted a change and wouldn;t have bought new if I was paying for petrol and diesel it would habe been silly money PM for commuting. The savings on petrol or diesel moe than make it worth my while at my mileage.

300 euro's to do 20,000 Kms based on my efficiency if I charge at home on night rate for all my driving but it's cost me a lot less due to free public charging.

I get a Guaranteed Minimum Future Value based on the rock bottom price Nissan expect to get and this is your balloon so you add your deposit, monthly payments + the GFMV and this is the cost to buy.

That's a good idea about the PCP. I'd never though about any financing option as was just going to pay in full (for a 2nd hand that is)

mordeith

mordeith wrote: »

That's a good idea about the PCP. I'd never though about any financing option as was just going to pay in full (for a 2nd hand that is)

I'm not sure if they will do PCP on a 2 year old leaf but ask.

BoatMad

mordeith wrote: »

That's a good idea about the PCP. I'd never though about any financing option as was just going to pay in full (for a 2nd hand that is)

Nissan don't do one.

I know bank of Ireland have entered into the 2nd hand PCP space.

As a general comment , I haven't found dealers give much if any difference in PCP quotes. They all use the same computerised calculation system. You can of course varying the terms and if you have a 2nd hand to trade, then there some flexibility.

But I've not seems the nissan PCP terms change from garage to garage , like interest rate. Or GMFV.

BoatMad

mordeith wrote: »

That's a good idea about the PCP. I'd never though about any financing option as was just going to pay in full (for a 2nd hand that is)

Unless you get a 2nd hand leaf ,cheap, I would not buy one without battery warranty.

September1

mordeith wrote: »

Just a quick question here guys. Looking into buying a 2nd hand Leaf and was wondering would waiting till (early) 2016 make any significant difference?

Probably, 2016 is first major improvement so there could be increased supply of LEAFs from people upgrading to larger battery. I would wait until first deliveries of 30kWh model.

thierry14 wrote: »

What if something goes wrong?

Drive train and battery warranty is finished in 2016 for 2011 model?

Battery degradation is a problem with the early models from the sounds of it, most of them are down to 8 or 9 bars from 12 when new ( warranty doesn't cover degradation above 8 bars )

I'm not sure if battery degradation is big issue in Irish climate, all 2011 LEAFs I know are still 12/12.

cros13

September1 wrote: »

I'm not sure if battery degradation is big issue in Irish climate, all 2011 LEAFs I know are still 12/12.

We've just about the best climate on earth for battery longevity.

According to EV wiki's battery aging model the Gen1 Leaf's battery should on average take 10 years to lose 30% of capacity.

Gen1.5 more than halved the rate of loss and Gen1.75 (i.e. the 30kWh battery for 2016) will halve it again.

At this point barring abuse I'd call the Gen1.5 forward useful battery life the life of the car.

September1

September1 wrote: »

I'm not sure if battery degradation is big issue in Irish climate, all 2011 LEAFs I know are still 12/12.

12 bars means nothing without a leafspy test, it could be just on the verge of loosing the first bar meaning a 12% or so loss.

Depends on the miles driven but there is a Leaf that I know of in Ireland that lost about 20% after 75,000 miles.

I tested a 2011 a few months ago that lost almost 20% after 43,000 Miles, a U.k import and hardly a warm climate.

I would always advise people looking for a 2nd hand Leaf to go for the 2013 this is the July model+ or the 2014 model year.

To be safe all 2014's should have the much better battery.

Leaf spy varies about 2-5%on battery capacity on the newer batteries.

BoatMad

and also given the restricted range of the Leaf to begin with a loss of 20-30 % is a massive impact on the usability of the car.

I think people should thread very careful, we need a solid statically sound analysis of battery life to determine residuals and that will take time, and plenty of it

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

and also given the restricted range of the Leaf to begin with a loss of 20-30 % is a massive impact on the usability of the car.

I think people should thread very careful, we need a solid statically sound analysis of battery life to determine residuals and that will take time, and plenty of it

A 30% capacity loss in the Leaf would still allow me complete my 84 mile work commute with work charging.

So in this case my leaf could do me 10 + years and probably well over 200,000 miles, but because time itself has an impact on battery life this still has to be proven.

IF the U.K taxi with over 100,000 miles and fast charged to death has still just over 90% capacity then i'm pretty confident in the current battery.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

A 30% capacity loss in the Leaf would still allow me complete my 84 mile work commute with work charging.

So in this case my leaf could do me 10 + years and probably well over 200,000 miles, but because time itself has an impact on battery life this still has to be proven.

IF the U.K taxi with over 100,000 miles and fast charged to death has still just over 90% capacity then i'm pretty confident in the current battery.

Looking at your leaf spy charging regime, its a very conservative fast charge, so I dont think in reality fast charging has any significant impact on battery life in itself. in fact Im not sure why the warning is given by nissan, The taper is very conservative too..

IN my experience, it boils down to this , cycles count but age counts even more

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

Looking at your leaf spy charging regime, its a very conservative fast charge, so I dont think in reality fast charging has any significant impact on battery life in itself. in fact Im not sure why the warning is given by nissan, The taper is very conservative too..

IN my experience, it boils down to this , cycles count but age counts even more

My fast charging really only consisted of the 35-40% - 85% for about the first 4-5 months at Newlands Cross and then 25-35%-50-60% at Naas.

I haven't seen a fast charger in a few weeks now since the work charger was commissioned.

With the original leaf battery if people were getting the battery pretty hot through fast charging this had an impact if it was a regular occurrence like proven by Nikki Gordon Bloomfield who admitted to fast charger abuse. She lost her first bar by 52K miles and another report of loosing the first bar at 47 K miles in the U.K , this has been observed in similar climates of the U.S.A.

https://speakev.com/threads/uk-leaf-loses-first-capacity-bar-now-at-85-of-original-battery-capacity.1809/

When I poped the question over at mynissanleaf about the 2011 loosing 15% after 36,000 miles they said "pretty normal" there are a lot more Leaf's in the U.S. and these are just the people that post online.

The original battery itself was a lot less durable and small changes that make it tolerate more cycling and heat can make a massive difference.

One rumour circulating is that NEC now use a different separator supplied by a different company in the current 24 kwh construction which is what they reckon improves it's heat resistance.

NEC could have over exaggerated the specifications to the cells which wouldn't be uncommon so that they may quote a 2 C charge rate for instance but really only can tolerate 1 C.

Nissan did state originally that the leaf should not exceed 70-80% charge when fast charging more than once a week and I bet this was to help mitigate fast charging effects by cycling less.

BoatMad

Nissan did state originally that the leaf should not exceed 70-80% charge when fast charging more than once a week and I bet this was to help mitigate fast charging effects by cycling less.

yes but of course , since they control the fast charge cycle , the only issue they cant control is the regularity of fast charge and hence temperature rise. I suspect it has more to do with that, then the actual use of fast chargers per se

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

yes but of course , since they control the fast charge cycle , the only issue they cant control is the regularity of fast charge and hence temperature rise. I suspect it has more to do with that, then the actual use of fast chargers per se

Sure they can control the amount of current dumped into the battery but if they were to scale back the current to acceptable levels then fast charging wouldn't have been so fast. By the time the battery gets close to the red zone this is already too late. At this point if you run the battery down and fast charge it will limit the current but this shouldn't be allowed to get to the red in the first place.

However Nissan must have known about this because they must have tested the packs for long enough and so originally advised to limit fast charging.

In Japan the average mileage is something like 7,000 Kms a year or miles ?, I can't remember and so most people wouldn't ever notice any battery degradation and I suspect they hoped anyone who bought an EV would not drive it long enough or far enough to notice the capacity loss but they sure got caught out. Not that I blame them entirely because they had invested so much and NEC probably told them porkies about the specifications.

toadfly

I have a 2012 Leaf, hoping to sell next year. Still full capacity bars but haven't done the Leaf Spy test. Just got it serviced yesterday at 60k with two new tyres. Rough idea what I would get for it if selling now?

samih

toadfly wrote: »

I have a 2012 Leaf, hoping to sell next year. Still full capacity bars but haven't done the Leaf Spy test. Just got it serviced yesterday at 60k with two new tyres. Rough idea what I would get for it if selling now?

To give you an idea, a colleague recently bought a spotless (ok, it had *one* scratch on rear bumper) '12 car with about 45k km and just over 90 percent remaining battery capacity for 13k from a Nissan dealer so guessing 10-12k depending on the condition at the moment.

toadfly

samih wrote: »

To give you an idea, a colleague recently bought a spotless (ok, it had *one* scratch on rear bumper) '12 car with about 45k km and just over 90 percent remaining battery capacity for 13k from a Nissan dealer so guessing 10-12k depending on the condition at the moment.

I would think it would be on the lower of the scale as its not through a dealer? Its in good nick, few small little marks but nothing major.

Thanks for that.