Residual values on leaf

BoatMad

What do people think in relation to residual values on the leaf. Is anyone seeing GFV versus actuals at this stage ?

How's it comparing with ICE models ?

I hear all sorts of anecdotal horror stories but little facts

Go on to carzone.

The leaf is holding its value better than all but the premium brands. There isn't much in the difference between the Leaf and a TDI Golf last time I checked.

And remember the SV and SVE are far higher equipped than your average diesel hatch in Ireland.

The GFMV is the " guaranteed Minimum future value" the rock bottom Nissan expect to get to cover themselves, usually it's worth more + I think people will soon realise the cracking value in these cars by their ultra cheap running costs and it could end up being a very desirable 2nd car in Ireland.

The 2014 + battery is also a lot more robust.

When your PCP contract ends you can always negotiate with a different garage, if they want your business bad enough they will usually give you a better deal.

BoatMad

Just reading leaftalk where there seems to be concern

Has anyone seen real numbers on say three year old leafs in Ireland

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

Just reading leaftalk where there seems to be concern

Has anyone seen real numbers on say three year old leafs in Ireland

The U.K market doesn't in any way reflect the Irish market, you get a flood of Ex PCP contracts in the U,K which is effecting 2nd hand car sales in the U.K. and concerns have been raised there about it.

If you want to get an idea of the Irish market then go on to carzone.ie and compare used values for the leaf then compare the average diesels.

In the U.K the whole used market is effected, it just so happens you'll really only hear about the leaf on leaftalk.

A good reason to be on PCP in the U.K because you'll get a guaranteed minimum future value at the end and if you get more then it's yours, if it's worth less then it's their problem.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

The U.K market doesn't in any way reflect the Irish market, you get a flood of Ex PCP contracts in the U,K which is effecting 2nd hand car sales in the U.K. and concerns have been raised there about it.

If you want to get an idea of the Irish market then go on to carzone.ie and compare used values for the leaf then compare the average diesels.

In the U.K the whole used market is effected, it just so happens you'll really only hear about the leaf on leaftalk.

A good reason to be on PCP in the U.K because you'll get a guaranteed minimum future value at the end and if you get more then it's yours, if it's worth less then it's their problem.

Bit surely the same will occurs here as PCPS exit and , I'd argue most EV owners will upgrade leaving a glut of 2nd ex PCP cars here too ??

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

Bit surely the same will occurs here as PCPS exit and , I'd argue most EV owners will upgrade leaving a glut of 2nd ex PCP cars here too ??

Who cares if you're on PCP.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

Who cares if you're on PCP.

Because the difference between the GFV and the real world values is what provides the deposit. If the real world values are low ,you have no equity going forward

Dexter1979

BoatMad wrote: »

Because the difference between the GFV and the real world values is what provides the deposit. If the real world values are low ,you have no equity going forward

This is my main worry about PCP. But a loan can be a lot more expensive.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

Because the difference between the GFV and the real world values is what provides the deposit. If the real world values are low ,you have no equity going forward

I based my decision to go on PCP based on the fact my monthly payments are much lower than normal bank, Cu loan or HP. I don't want to keep the car so the traditional method of buying is of no interest to me.

I get the GFMV at the end regardless and I certainly don't see the 2nd hand prices of the Leaf dropping but even so I didn't base my decision to go on PCP on the basis I would get more than the GFMV at the end.

The GFMV + what you put into the car would be the cost to buy so you base this on the traditional method of payment and I found the PCP even with the GFMV worked out cheaper than a bank loan because the interest was a lot cheaper.

If you buy on HP or bank loan you still may end up coughing up for a deposit because the used value is lower than you expected.

For your next contract the GFMV will be based on the market at that time.

BoatMad

Dexter1979 wrote: »

This is my main worry about PCP. But a loan can be a lot more expensive.

Credit union is currently below Nissans PCP rate. But of course you have to finance 100 %.

I agree it's my main worry with PCP and electric cars in general. We simply haven't enough data to arrive at a sustainable perspective on 2nd hand leafs.

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

Because the difference between the GFV and the real world values is what provides the deposit. If the real world values are low ,you have no equity going forward

The depreciation on the leaf has been similar to a diesel Toyota Auris which has a similar retail price.

I don't think I've seen a Leaf in Ireland make less than circa €12k. There was a bit of a hit on the 2010/2011s because the price of a new Leaf dropped by €10k in the period.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

I based my decision to go on PCP based on the fact my monthly payments are much lower than normal bank, Cu loan or HP. I don't want to keep the car so the traditional method of buying is of no interest to me.

I get the GFMV at the end regardless and I certainly don't see the 2nd hand prices of the Leaf dropping but even so I didn't base my decision to go on PCP on the basis I would get more than the GFMV at the end.

The GFMV + what you put into the car would be the cost to buy so you base this on the traditional method of payment and I found the PCP even with the GFMV worked out cheaper than a bank loan because the interest was a lot cheaper.

If you buy on HP or bank loan you still may end up coughing up for a deposit because the used value is lower than you expected.

For your next contract the GFMV will be based on the market at that time.

I agree with all you say here. But with petrol and diesels there is sufficient data to reasonably estimate residuals and hence determine how the dealer value will rate against the GFV .

If residuals are poor it would mean coughing up a deposit.

If that were the case the total cost of ownership should factor in such a scenario , it wouldn't take much to wipe out those 3x annual fuel savings over the life of a PCP.

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

The depreciation on the leaf has been similar to a diesel Toyota Auris which has a similar retail price.

I don't think I've seen a Leaf in Ireland make less than circa €12k. There was a bit of a hit on the 2010/2011s because the price of a new Leaf dropped by €10k in the period.

Have we any data for three year old Leafs , especially ex-PCP

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

I agree with all you say here. But with petrol and diesels there is sufficient data to reasonably estimate residuals and hence determine how the dealer value will rate against the GFV .

If residuals are poor it would mean coughing up a deposit.

If that were the case the total cost of ownership should factor in such a scenario , it wouldn't take much to wipe out those 3x annual fuel savings over the life of a PCP.

If you're worried about PCP effecting used car sales like in the U.K then this will happen across the board all makes and models. But we've many years to go in Ireland before we reach their level of PCP contracts. Still the Irish obsession is to buy to own.

You see the thing is, you don't go into a PCP contract expecting a deposit at the end, or expecting the dealer will write off xxxx Kms you go over, this is also a consideration and why I take the diesel for the long hauls. I am not expecting the dealer to write off any mileage because I don't trust them and it's not in writing.

You calculate the GFMV + what you have paid off the car including deposit and this is the total cost of the car to buy, you compare this to bank loan or CU loan or HP and compare the two and see what's the better deal "IF" you want to buy the car, PCP gives you 3 years to think about it, I'm not going to pay 12 K or whatever my GFMV is at the end to own the car with 75K +Kms when I can put that into the new one or whatever is around at the time.

If I want to own a car I will buy 2nd hand but you'll most likely pay much the same to buy a decent 2nd hand car PM as a new one on PCP.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

Have we any data for three year old Leafs , especially ex-PCP

I doubt you will get that information based on the amount of leafs sold and most leaf owners won't be on boards.ie.

You need to treat a PCP like you would any other car loan meaning don't expect a deposit and you got to have the car in good condition.

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

Have we any data for three year old Leafs , especially ex-PCP

Almost all the sales for 2010-2012 were true-believers, cash buyers with the odd person financing. There were quite low numbers with only two cars sold in 2010. 131 reg was the first one to rack up decent sales, but because of the low numbers we have a weird situation where 2010 - 131 reg Leafs are selling (actually selling, not advertised prices) for an average of €13k with a spread of not much more than €1000 between the three years. Then with mk1.5 132 reg Leafs there is a jump of about €5k in selling price and not a whole lot of difference between 132 and 151 regs.

So it's not typical depreciation behavior. It's more like cellphones than cars. Mileage and registration year seem to have limited impact.

I don't think we'll see the same issues as in the UK. A ton of new cars were leased by businesses or PCPed within very short periods of time in the UK and now they are all coming off lease at the same time which is saturating the infant 2nd hand market. Here in Ireland the buying pattern has been very different. Not many leafs as company cars here.

GreyDad

There's no 'guarantee' on residuaks for any EV the technology is too new and the numbers too small to provide reliable statistics. Early depreciation estimates in the UK car guides were really high because 'everyone knew' the batteries would need to be replaced after three years they said so on Top Gear. When it was clear that was BS the car guides like Parkers revised up the residuals earlier this year.

The other factor holding down EV prices is infrastructure concerns and the so-called limited range issue, most of which is now fiction. What people have realised in the last year is that current EV's make great second cars where these things are largely irrelevant - but few people buy *any* fuel-type car brand new as their second car, its a small part of the market.

So it's taken a couple of years for enough EV's like the Leaf to start falling off PCP's (or be replaced with the newer models) and finally start filtering into the secondhand market. There will be a short term glut but this will be a good thing as it will encourage many into first time EV ownership, from which there is no return of course

Concerning GFMV this has historically been artificially high on PCP's at least by Nissan and Renault but has worked well to keep 2-3 year ownership costs low and encourage new car sales (without which there is no secondhand market!). The manufacturer takes the hit on this as they may well have to sell on the vehicle below the GFMV, but in the long term that's still going to help get people into EV's via the used market, hopefully leading to nee car sales in future.

What we see now that the first PCP deals for the 2016 Leaf are out this week is that PCP rates forbthe 30kWh Leaf are higher than previos models, because the GFMV's are being reduced. This is not unexpected and can be viewed as a correction towards more realistic pricing in time for the anticipated longer range revamped 2017 model.

Relatively low diesel and petrol prices haven't helped EV sales the last year or two but the recent emissions scandal has I think brought other important issues to the minds of the public. I would expect to see a lot of people switch away from diesel, certainly for local second car use, over the next couple of years and hopefully a good number of those will go EV.

So depreciation is going to be a volatile thing in the EV world over the next few years, with new technology coming out rapidly to mix the picture up even more (would you buy an i3 rex if BEV's have greater range?), but my bet is that this will apply to the whole car market not just EV's - what price your 2L diesel Audi or VW in a years time??

We live in interesting times

BoatMad

What we see now that the first PCP deals for the 2016 Leaf are out this week is that PCP rates forbthe 30kWh Leaf are higher than previos models, because the GFMV's are being reduced. This is not unexpected and can be viewed as a correction towards more realistic pricing in time for the anticipated longer range revamped 2017 model.

I'm only going to get hard pricing on PCPS for the 2016 next week

Are you saying GFMV are lower then 2015 leafs and rates are higher then 7.9 % !! , jeepers nissan are making it impossible for me to buy this car so.

Perhaps your comments are specific to the uk market. Here I beleive GFMVs were always lower

GreyDad

BoatMad wrote: »

I'm only going to get hard pricing on PCPS for the 2016 next week

Are you saying GFMV are lower then 2015 leafs and rates are higher then 7.9 % !! , jeepers nissan are making it impossible for me to buy this car so.

Perhaps your comments are specific to the uk market. Here I beleive GFMVs were always lower

The GFMV's are lower but they are offering 0% on the 30kWh in the UK. They've lowered the price of the 24kWh model as well. Min deposit is 10%

The problem was there were some crazy short term deals offered by some dealers using friends and family discounts but Nissan have changed that so they're not so attractive - still a big discount of list but 3 yrs min and 6-7% or so interest. Means the pricing is becoming overall more realistic and the GFMV's are more sensible.

I'm looking to get a 30kWh one at the moment. I bought an ex demo 2015 for the Mrs but I'm looking at a 2 yr PCP on a 30kWh 2016 to tide me over to the much-anticipated 2017/18 model. I'll keep an ICE for occasional business-only long-haul trips.

BoatMad

I think in Ireland we're traded the 4k scrappage for higher PCP rates.

Personally I think it will be 2018-2019 before we see the next gen model and I suspect battery range wil not be as great as hyped ( and still keep the model price reasonable )

I think when my early 2016 PCP ends it will just be about right for next gen !

thierry14

BoatMad wrote: »

I think in Ireland we're traded the 4k scrappage for higher PCP rates.

Personally I think it will be 2018-2019 before we see the next gen model and I suspect battery range wil not be as great as hyped ( and still keep the model price reasonable )

I think when my early 2016 PCP ends it will just be about right for next gen !

Think your spot on

Only luxury/expensive models will have good range, 2018 leaf price range of 30k

Will have 200km max in basic form.

Tesla Model 3 will be priced like a new 5 Series here to have over 300km range

Buying a used EV out of warranty is madness too imo

BoatMad

thierry14 wrote: »

Think your spot on

Only luxury/expensive models will have good range, 2018 leaf price range of 30k

Will have 200km max in basic form.

Tesla Model 3 will be priced like a new 5 Series here to have over 300km range

Buying a used EV out of warranty is madness too imo

I find it hard to disagree with you.

I think residuals on > 6 year leafs is entirely fictional and in fact they could be worthless. Better buy on PCP and let nissan handle that hassle

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

Better buy on PCP and let nissan handle that hassle

Now you're finally getting it !

The trick with PCP is you add the GFMV + what you pay for the 3 years in total including deposit and this is the total cost to buy the car should you wish. You may find this quiet favourable to a bank loan, regular finance etc and it still costs you less PM if you don't want to keep it because you are paying interest + depreciation over the 3 years you're not paying for the total cost of the car + interest for the 3 years so this is why your monthly payments are a lot cheaper.

At the end if say your GFMV is 12,000 Euro's and the car is worth 8,000 well then you don't buy it and Nissan take the hit and anything worth over that 12K is yours for the new one but don't count on it.

Roen

BoatMad wrote: »

I think when my early 2016 PCP ends it will just be about right for next gen !

That was one of the things that occurred to me in the hour or two I spent thinking about buying the Leaf or not. Mine will be ending mid 2018, hope there's something out there that'll be a worthy replacement.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

Now you're finally getting it !

The trick with PCP is you add the GFMV + what you pay for the 3 years in total including deposit and this is the total cost to buy the car should you wish. You may find this quiet favourable to a bank loan, regular finance etc and it still costs you less PM if you don't want to keep it because you are paying interest + depreciation over the 3 years you're not paying for the total cost of the car + interest for the 3 years so this is why your monthly payments are a lot cheaper.

At the end if say your GFMV is 12,000 Euro's and the car is worth 8,000 well then you don't buy it and Nissan take the hit and anything worth over that 12K is yours for the new one but don't count on it.

sure sure. but of course if you want out of the pcp process at the end of three years or you are financing the complete purchase, you have a real interest in residuals

BoatMad

Roen wrote: »

That was one of the things that occurred to me in the hour or two I spent thinking about buying the Leaf or not. Mine will be ending mid 2018, hope there's something out there that'll be a worthy replacement.

I think we can safety assume , that despite an off the cuff remark from Ghosn, that battery capacity will increase about 5-7% per annum. This suggest that range should around 250km by about 2018. This assumes of course that Nissan can hold the battery price down to provide that range at similar process to todays prices. I dont think there is much room to take the Leaf over 30K, without it becoming a daft purchase

I think it will be a challenge for Nissan to get the range versus costs right. Tesla have done it to date by just jacking up the price to match. ( and it loses money on every car ) . The danger is range will stagnate, because pricing is a barrier

There is also the fear that cars that give more , costs more issues in the car trade, i.e. the trade sees a cars range go from X to Y and as in normal in the auto business, expect to see pricing go from A to B . Hence witness the huge uplift in the 30 KWh battery ( particularly in Ireland )

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

sure sure. but of course if you want out of the pcp process at the end of three years or you are financing the complete purchase, you have a real interest in residuals

But you shouldn't go into a PCP contract expecting more value then the GFMV.

If you get regular finance and the car devalues to 8K and on PCP my GFMV is 12 K, with 75,000 Kms or something like that anyway, then at the end you loose more than I do on PCP.

The catch is the mileage, if I go over by 15,000 Kms then I have to pay 1,200 Euro's, not the end of the world but money I rather put into the new one or whatever is available at the time.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

But you shouldn't go into a PCP contract expecting more value then the GFMV.

everyone does , thats how its sold, i.e. you can continue to pay the same ( or similar ) monthly figure and the excess over GFMV pays the deposit. It works ( in general for ICE PCPs)

If you get regular finance and the car devalues to 8K and on PCP my GFMV is 12 K, with 75,000 Kms or something like that anyway, then at the end you loose more than I do on PCP.

yes thats why residuals matter in many cases

The catch is the mileage, if I go over by 15,000 Kms then I have to pay 1,200 Euro's, not the end of the world but money I rather put into the new one or whatever is available at the time.

sure but the excess mileage only applies if you want to continue with a PCP, if you want to buy the car there is just the original GFMV to pay , if you want to walk away , you have to pay the excess

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

everyone does , thats how its sold, i.e. you can continue to pay the same ( or similar ) monthly figure and the excess over GFMV pays the deposit. It works ( in general for ICE PCPs)

Yes it usually works out but you shouldn't assume it will.

BoatMad wrote: »

yes thats why residuals matter in many cases

Residuals matter of course but on PCP you know the worst case devaluation you don't on finance, bank loan ect, this is the key difference, and with bank loan etc you still got to come up with the deposit which is usually your trade in which you still may need to add to.

BoatMad wrote: »

sure but the excess mileage only applies if you want to continue with a PCP, if you want to buy the car there is just the original GFMV to pay , if you want to walk away , you have to pay the excess

The mileage may not apply if getting a new PCP contract however again it's not to be assumed the dealer will write that off, for 1,200 Euro's though he probably would be mad because he'll easily get that back on the sale of the old car.

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

Tesla have done it to date by just jacking up the price to match. ( and it loses money on every car ) .

The myth that Tesla loses money on cars had been bandied about a bit. The average profit margin on the Model S is almost 25% of an average $92,000 selling price. They make money on every single car off the line.
The myth the Tesla is losing money on each car comes from idiots and short sellers looking at the profit and loss statement and dividing by the number of cars delivered. In doing this they fail to account for Tesla counting deliveries in a much more conservative manner than other car makers and also fail to understand that the company is production limited and spending huge amounts of money on building production capacity, i.e. growing the company.

In fact taking out just three things out of the expenses: the new paint facility and tooling, model 3 r&d and the gigafactory would put Tesla almost $1 billion in the black this year.

GM has stated they will hit $145/kWh for the Bolt's pack. At $90/kWh fitting a 300ish km electric drivetrain to a car is going to be cheaper in absolute terms than giving it an ICE.