RWC'15 Pool D: Ireland vs Italy, RWC. KO Sunday 4:45PM TV3/ITV1

Losty Dublin

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Preview. The board of the IRFU couldn't have asked for a better or luckier RWC than that of 2015. A soft group draw, a team who have been in devastating form in test matches, competition for places in almost every position within the squad and, best of all, most of our rival teams are floundering. So far so good for the Ireland team and with a severely underachieving Italian team opposing us on Sunday, you'd reasonably expect a safe 4 or even five points to see us through to the quarter final against one or either team from the other soft group of the tourney.

With that in mind lets have a look at how it could fall apart for us, as has been the case for everybody else in the competition.

The teams.

A largely expected starting 15 was announced today; Zebo's call up into full back in lieu of injured Kearney R is deserved after his excellent attacking against Romania while RWC debutant Robert Henshaw's return to the centre beside Keith Earls being the two notable if expected changes. Ian Henderson's fine form sees him retain his place over Devin Toner but we can expect the Leinster lock to make an impact when he comes on. Otherwise the bench is made up of forwards who could start and backs who should start, depending on who's asking whom.

Italy on the other hand have had their team selection made easier through a dearth of form, team spirit and potency in attack. Injured captain Sergio Parisse is called up after a week of medical treatment. While his return is a massive boost for Azzurri, front row stalwarts Leonardo Ghiraldini and Castrogiavanni don't feature in the 23 due to injuries; one wonders if the latter will ever see RWC action again. Behind the pack a conservative if solid five eights line failed to shine against Canada; surely they can't be as poor this week opposition not withstanding.

The Action. Italy has relied on 3 main weapons. Grinding down their opposition pack in the tight set piece, exploiting weaknesses on the day and old fashioned bullying and dirt-birding. This worked fine in 2003 when Clohessy or Jason Leonard would swing digs back at you and give the game to you or when Arwel Thomas or ROG were relatively light if savvy playmakers but today's game has moved on.

[IMG]http://cdn.onrugby.it/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/AA2Y1286-┬®sebastiano-pessina.jpg[/IMG]

Players are bigger and fitter and smarter, set piece options are so numerous that it's nigh impossible to call bluff on them while the advent of TMO has worked wonders in cleaning up on foul play. Add to this that Italy needs a few modern backs and it's clear where their problems lay. Italy rugby is still stuck in 2003 test rugby and Ireland knows this well.

Low number ruck ball, wide flat runs, switches to the full back line runners and plenty of long kicks into space to turn them out will be the order of the day. McClean is an excellent full back but his mobility will be tested as will his field and return game. Most of this isn't pretty to watch (Unless you watch England play.) but it works and it will tire the opposition out in time.

The Verdict.. Ireland's games versus Canada and Romania were more like additional warm up games than actuate tests and were treated as such by management. While it has allowed for many on field combinations to be tried, it's also means that the team remains untested to a higher level since March.

On the other hand Italy have had such a test and have played poorly. Morale was clearly poor in the early season and Brunel has lost the plot at this late stage in his reign as head coach. Canada were no doubted hyped up last week to give it a lash but Italy were more lazy than poor and were saved by the good scrummaging of Castrogiavanni late on. Certainly they are due a big game one of the days and while they'll make us work I just don't think that this weekend is when they'll find the big game.

I'm going with a 39-20 win to Ireland, Zebo to put the shudders up his detractors and O'Leary to score the winning penalty :pac:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PXLvCwhs7c

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we're going to beat Italy by more than we beat Canada or Romania by.

PTH2009

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we're going to beat Italy by more than we beat Canada or Romania by.

No chance problem beat them in the last 15 mins. 21-17

irishbucsfan

PTH2009 wrote: »

No chance problem beat them in the last 15 mins. 21-17

Ah great, we always do particularly well when you give a negative prediction!

The bookies reckon we'll win by 21 points. I think that sounds about right, I think it'll be a 20-30 point win.

basillarkin

Ireland by 12

MikeCork2009

Ireland by 38

molloyjh

From the talk out of camp I reckon we'll see a fairly expansive approach to this. We seem to be targeting 5 points from it and I'd be fairly confident we can do that. This Italian side are very poor and if we maintain our composure I can see us winning well.

TheGoldenAges

Great write up, puts mine to shame :pac:

Losty Dublin

TheGoldenAges wrote: »

Great write up, puts mine to shame :pac:

Ah shush you lol

crybaby

20 point victory,, Italy will go at it in the first half and then crumble in the second

JPCN1

Ireland will win, but I don't think we'll see the full box of tricks until we meet France. We may not need it if France play like they did yesterday but it may not be enough if France play like they sometimes do.

Realistically if we don't win this with relative ease you'd question how much further we can go. Last World Cup it took a long time to grind them down. 6 nations game we played a limited enough game mainly due to Keatley starting at out half and being instructed to keep it simple and kick for territory. Again it may take time but even with Parisse back to lift the Italians, there is only so much he can do and he can't be anything near match fit for 80 minutes. Italy are definitely at one of their lower ebbs. The Scotland victory in the 6 nations masked a team in a bad place.

I'm hoping for as close to a tension free Sunday evening as possible with bigger tests ahead.

corny

If we get 5 points a draw should do us against France.

Idbatterim

The bookies have us at 1/20 draw 40/1 Italy win 12/1. We will beat them, by how many is the only question. It would be great to go through this game with no injuries and as minimal physical exertion as possible... The first real test will be v France.

pc7

Great write up, but Id be seriously disappointed if we let Italy get 20 in. I'll go for Ireland 31-10

vienne86

Great preview! I just want a great day out in Stratford, five points, and no injuries.......not much to ask!

People being very kind to Italy.

I'd be disappointed if they get more than 10, would like to see them kept to 3 or 6.

I think we're good for 26 points or more. If Italy capitulate late on could be humbling.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Deleted User wrote: »

People being very kind to Italy.

I'd be disappointed if they get more than 10, would like to see them kept to 3 or 6.

I think we're good for 26 points or more. If Italy capitulate late on could be humbling.

To score 3 or 6 would involve them being able to kick at goal.

Pink Fairy

Glad to see Dave playing, think he'll make some serious yardage against then and hopefully free space for Earls to work his attacking magic.
Can't see this being a close game, think from 30 mins on we'll just ease clear and should get a bp easily enough

MikeCork2009

I've said it all week. I've bet Ireland at -19 and again at -21.5. I can't see anything bar an emphatic Ireland win. We have 15 guys on the field capable of tearing a poor Italy apart and replacements off the bench capable of just the same. Our win against Canada on week 1 looks even more impressive not given how well Canada have performed since and our 2nd string (if Ireland have such a thing at the moment, Schmidt really has a squad rather than a team playing for him) never really had to get out of 3rd gear against a determined Romania. Expect Ireland to ramp it up from there and put Italy to the sword. Only issue for Ireland is to avoid injuries. Have beaten Italy by 31 points on average in recent times (baring 2013) and this Italy is a side in decline. With a huge Irish crowd behind them I see Ireland winning by 30+. My prediction Ireland 47 - 9 Italy.

molloyjh

Borders no.2 wrote: »

Realistically if we don't win this with relative ease you'd question how much further we can go. Last World Cup it took a long time to grind them down. 6 nations game we played a limited enough game mainly due to Keatley starting at out half and being instructed to keep it simple and kick for territory. Again it may take time but even with Parisse back to lift the Italians, there is only so much he can do and he can't be anything near match fit for 80 minutes. Italy are definitely at one of their lower ebbs. The Scotland victory in the 6 nations masked a team in a bad place.

I'm hoping for as close to a tension free Sunday evening as possible with bigger tests ahead.

I think we tried to do similar to last year, wear them down over 60 minutes and strike for a few tries in the last 20. But the weather turned and the squad wasn't as strong as last year so we didn't do as much damage in the end as we had hoped. We've a stronger team for tomorrow so we should be looking to get a real result.

kuang1

PTH2009 wrote: »

No chance problem beat them in the last 15 mins. 21-17

The ever dependable doomsdayer!!!! Nice to see you again. Like irishbucsfan says; it's like a good omen for us when you predict dark days!

30+ points we beat them by.

The only part of the OP's post I disagree with is that this Italy team are due a good performance at some stage.
I do not believe there is any semblance of a good performance in this Italian side under this coach.

stephen_n

A win with no injuries will do nicely, ideally a bonus point just in case we draw with France. However I think if Italy put 20 points up on us, Joe will go nuts and it would be a very bad sign of things to come, 28-10 to us I'd say.

Bridge93

This is an Italian team missing 4 or 5 players an unfit Parisse. We should be winning by 25+

aimee1

Bridge93 wrote: »

This is an Italian team missing 4 or 5 players an unfit Parisse. We should be winning by 25+

the last 20 minutes could be scrappy if we have the TBP secured and have shut italy out.


Sexton, Best, Murray, POC, Heaslip off [by choice] as early as possible would be great

.ak

I'm not so confident. I hope the guys aren't targeting a BP win.... Forcing your game, that's exactly how you make mistakes.

kuang1

.ak wrote: »

I'm not so confident. I hope the guys aren't targeting a BP win.... Forcing your game, that's exactly how you make mistakes.

Yeah I'd say that's highly unlikely under Joe. If any player was asked about a bonus point win I guarantee they'd shoot down the idea immediately and bang on about victory being the only goal etc.
We are streets better than this Italian team even on their best day.
If I was betting (I'm not) I'd have a sizeable double on Ireland-19 & Australia to beat England.

efb

Just win the game!!!

total former

.ak wrote: »

I'm not so confident. I hope the guys aren't targeting a BP win.... Forcing your game, that's exactly how you make mistakes.

We need to be realistic here. I'm all for not getting ahead of ourselves etc but...

We should HOCKEY this Italy team. Anything less than a 20 point margin will be a failure.

The other likely contenders for the RWC would put 50 points on them, we should be aiming to do likewise if we want to be taken seriously.

vienne86

I would like:

1. The win
2. No injuries
3. Bonus point

in that order.

Koobcam

.ak wrote: »

I'm not so confident. I hope the guys aren't targeting a BP win.... Forcing your game, that's exactly how you make mistakes.

We don't need a bp win. Assuming we win, then we will have a better points difference and more tries scored that France. So basically, just win and we have the advantage if the French game ends in a draw (unless the French score 4 tries...)

bilston

I'm quite bullish at this stage.

I think we'll win by 25 points, something along the lines of 41-17 or some such scorelime.

thomond2006

A margin of 30ish plus is very achievable. I'm not a fan of Keith Earls being moved to 13 given he's been on fire on the wing but I think he does offer more in attack than Payne. I think Sexton will give Earls a lot of line break opportunities.

Hippo

I think Earls should stay on the wing as well, he's so impressive there.

By the by, big performance now required from SOB, who might be under a little pressure now.

chupacabra

Smashing write up Losty. Our world cup starts here. Above all else I hope to god we come through this without any serious injuries. We've been lucky so far but that luck can only last so long. Ireland by at least 2 tries

Hippo

Hippo wrote: »

By the by, big performance now required from SOB, who might be under a little pressure now.

Go on...?

aimee1

Hippo wrote: »

By the by, big performance now required from SOB, who might be under a little pressure now.

SOB? Why?

Tompatrick

Koobcam wrote: »

We don't need a bp win. Assuming we win, then we will have a better points difference and more tries scored that France. So basically, just win and we have the advantage if the French game ends in a draw (unless the French score 4 tries...)

Not sure if it matters massively if we face NZ in quarters. A loss against French and history against NZ would have the Irish team massively fired up against a NZ team that is not infallible. The Pumas in some ways could be a trickier tie.

pickarooney

bilston wrote: »

I'm quite bullish at this stage.

I think we'll win by 25 points, something along the lines of 41-17 or some such scorelime.

That's 24 points... :P

Celly Smunt

Tompatrick wrote: »

Not sure if it matters massively if we face NZ in quarters. A loss against French and history against NZ would have the Irish team massively fired up against a NZ team that is not infallible. The Pumas in some ways could be a trickier tie.

I'm feeling this way too, I have a feeling we're stronger than ever to take NZ on, but I feel that Argentina are actually a stride ahead of us. Looking at NZ last night, I'd take them over Argentina if we were to play tomorrow.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

I don't think I'd read too much into New Zealand's performances so far. Their best performance was against Argentina, the best team they had to play in their pool, and they've maybe struggled to get a decent performance against two much weaker sides, which can happen sometimes.

Hippo

aimee1 wrote: »

SOB? Why?

I think Chris Henry is pushing him very close now.

Tox56

total former wrote: »

We need to be realistic here. I'm all for not getting ahead of ourselves etc but...

We should HOCKEY this Italy team. Anything less than a 20 point margin will be a failure.

The other likely contenders for the RWC would put 50 points on them, we should be aiming to do likewise if we want to be taken seriously.

New Zealand couldnt even put 50 on Georgia yesterday, England couldnt get close to that against Fiji. Im all for high standards and expectations but I dont think a score like "35-10" for example would reflect particularly badly on us at this stage, or suggest we arent contenders

mfceiling

He's not.

I'm a huge fan of Henry but he's not pushing SOB...not remotely true.

efb

+21 the handicap- I can't see that myself!

mr. pleasant

Italy have been muck so far and i do not see them raise their game by much.

Ireland to be dominant, bonus point and 25 points or more ahead. 41-12.

Hippo

mfceiling wrote: »

He's not.

I'm a huge fan of Henry but he's not pushing SOB...not remotely true.

With respect, I think it is remotely true. I wouldn't have believed it a couple of months ago, but SOB has been comparatively quiet and Henry has looked really lively. At his best SOB is undroppable, but I don't think he's quite there atm.

Flipper22

Hippo wrote: »

With respect, I think it is remotely true. I wouldn't have believed it a couple of months ago, but SOB has been comparatively quiet and Henry has looked really lively. At his best SOB is undroppable, but I don't think he's quite there atm.

What's this based on, the Canada match? He was very good against the scots in the warmups (not that I'd put much store by the warmups). I really rate Henry but O'Brien has a lot of credit in the bank. I think it would take probably a season of averageness from SOB for Joe to consider dropping him, not a game, and certainly not a game against Canada.

.ak

The difference between a middling sob and an on form Henry is huge, sob may not be at his best but he's still carrying over the gain line at will and still destroying rucks for fun.

As much as I like Henry, if anything it's his jersey that's under pressure. Murphy has been very good and adapts very well to any role Schmidt gives him. Henry had a stormer against Romania so he's safe, but I couldn't help notice how much Murphy changed his natural game for that fixture was really effective.

kuang1

Alright.
Today is here at last.
Let's go show the world what a true top 4 team looks like.

Pink Fairy

Excitement starting to build..... Unfortunately, Im stuck building a dolls house for my daughter's 2nd class project