October 2015 Boards forecast contest

200motels

200motels 10.2c __ 18.9c __ -4c __ 108% __ 106% ___ 90% _ 8c

mrskinner

May I question the fairness of using October 1st as max temp day?

M.T. Cranium

I think in most cases the late penalty cancels out any real advantage, but maybe some have figured out that you can check provisional values later on the first -- the problem is, some might just guess the right value too, and then you have to factor in whether it will hold up all month, otherwise it's almost a disadvantage. But I will see what others think and in any case we would change any rules for next year rather than in progress. I have been a bit lenient on penalties today because I was a bit late posting the contest and the late entrants are generally quite a bit behind in the contest anyway. There again, I have on occasion posted a double-late-penalty for values already settled before posting. This case does not look that settled so it's partly a guess that there won't be a warmer day.

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon dropped to 0.0 yesterday - the first post-summer?

pauldry

Hey lots of people seem to think 19.1c is going to be max

Why?

Me I do my forecast before the month usually as its for my own benefit and plays the game on its merits

Each to their own

Still think this Winter will rival 2010 in terms of cold n -4 or -5c very possible late October

pauldry

Its 19c up in Donegal.

Bloody hell

Tae laidir

Joaquin dying in Biscay.
So is my forecast!

M.T. Cranium

After the first week (1-7 October) ...

IMT for contest five stations is 10.74 C ... (0.7 below normal)
IMT for precip-eleven sites is 11.21 C ... (0.4 below normal)

PRC for the eleven sites is 41% of normal

SUN for the six stations used is 103.5% and 101.6% for all eight available now.

I think the MAX stays at 19.1 despite a near approach on Tuesday, and MIN is almost certainly a thing of the future.

pauldry

Min is 0.0c so far at mt dillon

Last night got to 1.4c in mullingar but cool n dry til oct 17th means imt will be 10c by midmonth n maybe -1c min n rain at 20% n sun at 120%

...hey can we all enter again.

Octobers a dead rubber

pauldry

Min down to -1c

Another chance tonight for -1c

But breezier after that.

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon reported -1.4 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Updates after the second week ...

IMT for contest five stations is 10.38 C (10.4) after a week at 10.02 ... (this continues to be 0.7 below normal)
IMT for precip-eleven sites is 10.87 C (10.9) after a week at 10.53 ... (this has dropped to 0.5 below normal)

PRC for the eleven sites is 24% of normal after a dry week at only 7%.

SUN for the six stations used is 112.7% after a week at 121.8% and 114.8% after a week at 127.9% for all eight available now.

MAX is 19.1 and MIN is --1.4

pauldry

New min -2c markree

John mac

pauldry wrote: »

New min -2c markree

what time was that ? met e have -1.3 on yesterdays weather ..

M.T. Cranium

I saw the -2 hourly at either 06 or 07 this morning -- won't be on yesterday's weather until tomorrow.

Tae laidir

Yes, -2.0 confirmed for Markee.

Oneiric 3

I put together a single blog page to help keep track of the monthly IMT values for both mean temperature and rainfall on a daily basis

http://imtstats.blogspot.ie/


The blog is only an experimental project at this stage as M.T is at this point is considering the inclusion of additional synoptic stations to the IMT means at the start of January 2016. At present, he uses the mean of 5 inland stations for temperature and the mean of 11 stations for rainfall. The data I use myself includes the means of 11 stations (the same list that M.T uses for rainfall) for both temperature and rainfall. However, M.T may include more stations may be added to this list at the start of 2016 and if so, this will be reflected on the stats in this blog page.

The purpose of this blog I hope will be to give a very quick overview of where the current IMT temp and rainfall for those who not only are interested in what way their monthly forecasts are heading but also maybe just to give a brief overview of the current monthly weather trends to those who might be interested in such.


The data in the blog page is used with kind permission from Met Eireann, and which I hope to update either day or every second day contingent on data availability.


If anyone has any questions or ideas for improvement for the blog page, or just think that the concept is totally pointless feel free to ask or put forward any suggestions as this is idea is just experimental for now.

M.T. Cranium

After third week ...

IMT now at 10.0 C after a week at only 9.32 C.
IMT for the eleven precip sites (including the five used above) is now 10.57 C after a week at 9.95 C.

The PRC is now 26% of normal, after a week at 29% of normal.

SUN now below normal at 97.3% after a week at 66.5% ... for all eight stations, sitting at 100.9% after a week at 73%.

The MAX continues to be 19.1 and the MIN is -2.0 ... more rain this coming week may move the numbers for PRC up closer to our range of forecasts, the other variables probably won't change much now.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen _____________ 9.8c __ 18.4c __ -2.2c __ 110% __ 125% ___ 70% _ -1c

I predict the low Halloween temperature as Mother Nature has a funny idea of evening things out with events such as the warmest Halloween on record last year. This is my first time so did I do anything wrong?

I am definitely wrong!

M.T. Cranium

After fourth week ...

IMT has edged up to 10.2 C after a week at 10.5 C.
IMT for the eleven precip stations also up but only fractionally to 10.6 C after a week at 10.8 C.

PRC is finally getting some business and has moved up to 51% of normal after the fourth week managed 125% of normal.

SUN has drifted down a bit further to 94.2% after a week at 84.7% for the contest six stations.
For all eight, that average is 96.9% with a similar weekly average of 85.0%.

MAX remains 19.1 and MIN -2.0

Early calls on finishing values

IMT 10.4 _ MAX 19.1 _ MIN -2.0 _ PRC 50% _ SUN 100% _ bonus 3 C 85% r.h.

that last one is still subject to considerable uncertainty as temperatures will be falling steadily under partially clear skies after a very mild day, so a bit tough to call an hourly value, not likely to be fully saturated that early into the night, maybe by 0400h or later when it might get foggy (at 0 or 1 C).

M.T. Cranium

I have a new player for our contests -- meet Norma L.

Norma L always predicts the 1981-2010 average values. Her score will be shown in two lines, scored like all of us with the mercy rule in play, and scored absolutely with no mercy rule applied.

In other forecasting contests, normal usually ends up near the bottom of the table. Your improvement over Norma L will tell you something about your skill, but the absolute score is the one to use for that determination. Skill is of course a relative term. You have the advantage of seeing reliable charts for one third of the month and speculative charts for much of the remainder. Norma L never takes a look at those. In other words, you should on average show some skill because you pretty well know how part of the month will turn out before you enter. The real skill factor is probably determined by applying normal values to the last half or two thirds of the month with the first half or third predicted (that prediction may vary from person to person and also may turn out wrong if the models are off).

Anyway, look for the scores for Norma L in the next update as well as this month's scoring. The entries of Norma L will be the 1981-2010 means for IMT, MAX and MIN although I may not easily find the data for MAX and MIN so I will start with the values listed below. If anyone has any suggestions for these, or a source for better data, fire away. I think these are pretty close. And PRC as well as SUN will of course be 100 for Norma L. The bonus questions will have their own defined normal values, there again, some may be easier to determine than others, but they should be fairly easy to estimate.

Normal MAX and MIN values (remember, this would be the average monthly extremes for all stations not something to apply to every station)

_____ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC

Max __ 14 __ 15 __ 17 __ 21 __ 25 __ 27 __ 28 __ 27 __ 25 __ 21 __ 18 __ 15
Min __ --7 __ --7 __ -5 __ -3 __ 0 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___ 4 ___ 1 ___ -2 __ -4 __ -6

These would be the scores for Norma L so far this year with Con Sensus for comparison. Where you see two lines for a month, the first line is the absolute score and the second line is what Norma L would score with mercy rule applied (*). I have listed the value applied to the bonus question after the score. For February, the actual values were very close to what I considered might be normal and so were locations so I gave Norma L two bonus points there.

______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus _(value) __ TOTAL ___ Con

January ________ 20 __ 00 __ 12 __ 10 __ 05 ____ 06 __(65 kts)___ 53 _____ 70
January ________ 20 __ 09*__ 12 __ 10 __ 05 ____ 06 ___________ 62 _____ 70

February _______ 17 __ 12 __ 11 __ 08 __ 10 ____ 12 __ (11,-1) _ 70 _____ 71

March __________ 12 __ 00 __ 19 __ 12 __ 04 ____ 09 __ (12 Val) _ 56 _____ 63
March __________ 12 __ 10*__ 19 __ 12 __ 04 ___ 09 ___________ 66 _____ 63

April ___________ 23 __ 17 __ 10 __ 09 __ 01 ____ 05 __ (6.0h) __ 65 _____ 65
April ___________ 23 __ 18*__14*__ 09 __ 04*___ 05 ___________73 _____ 65

May ___________ 13 __ 00 __ 12 __ 00 __ 06 ___ 06 __ (32 mm) _ 37 _____ 56
May ___________ 13 __ 02*__ 12 __ 05*__ 06 ___ 06 ___________ 44 _____ 56

June ___________ 18 __ 06 __ 00 __ 02 __ 09 ___ 06 __ (12d) ____ 41 _____ 62
June ___________ 20*__ 06 __ 06*__05*__09 ___ 06 ____________52 _____ 62

July ____________ 13 __ 00 __ 01 __ 00 __ 07 ___ 08 (last third) __ 29 _____ 55
July ____________ 20*__12*__10*__09*__ 07 ___ 08 ___________ 66 _____ 55

August __________12 __ 00 __ 15 __ 13 __ 10 ___ 05 (n/a) _______55 _____ 69

September ______ 15 __ 00 __ 18 __ 06 __ 09 ___ 11 (17.5,2.2) ___ 59 _____ 60
(mercy rule applied Max, Min but would not change these scores)

October (prov) ___ 22 __ 01 __ 20 __ 00 __ 10 ___ 09 (3.0 90%) ___ 62 _____ ??

_______________________________

So, the average score for Norma L would be 12 lower than Con Sensus, but after the min prog (mercy rule) was applied, the difference was only 1 lower on average with some months higher, a few more lower.

What that tells me is that in general, most of our forecasts are near normal values.

Tae laidir

Time: Hum: Temp:
14:00...67....15
15:00...62....14
16:00...67....14
17:00...76....11
18:00...79....10
19:00...86....07
20:00...91....06
21:00...93....05
22.00...94....03
23:00...97....02
24:00...96....01 yihaaa!
01:00...97....01. Missed bullseye by an hour. I

rameire

for people like me who forget

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057514677

November Contest

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Time: Hum: Temp:
14:00...67....15
15:00...62....14
16:00...67....14
17:00...76....11
18:00...79....10
19:00...86....07
20:00...91....06
21:00...93....05
22.00...94....03
23:00...97....02

Yeah n sligo town its 7c n 92

That markree is a cold spot.

Was 13c at midnight last night in markree

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for the countdown Tae laidir, I was a few minutes late getting in to see the hourly and it had changed over to 0100h (same readings) so that's good to find ... and you managed to hit both values right on (almost)! ... 1 deg C and 96% r.h. ...That should be worth 12 out of 10, I think.

Dasa29 also had the right temperature (1 deg C), otherwise closest were JD at 0 deg C and John mac at 2 C. Sryanbruen was our only forecaster who foresaw freezing temperatures and that turned out to be quite close too. It was not intentional on my part but Markree turned out to be quite a bit colder than the rest of the stations, even those which are often cold under clear skies.

None of those had a top five guess for relative humidity, so no other bonus points. The closest r.h. guesses after Tae laidir (97%) were Lumi (94%), Pauldry (92%) and both Rikand and 200motels at 90%.

I will post the IMT and PRC values from the met.ie past data section Sunday afternoon or evening. I will also have an estimate for the final value of SUN, and we think that 19.1, -2.0 are the MAX and MIN. Scoring won't take place until Tuesday as the Monthly Summary won't appear on Monday.

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished on 10.3 C (the eleven stations on 10.7 C)

PRC is about 53%, mercy rule will be needed there for scoring.

SUN is about 96%

Will confirm these from the Monthly Summary.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for October 2015


FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN _ BONUS (Temp, rh%)

__ Confirmed values __ 10.3_19.1_-2.0_055_096__1 C 96% ___ TOTALS

DOCARCH ___________ 23 _ 19 _ 17 _ 11* _ 07 ___ 4__ 2 _______ 83
Rameire ____ (-5) _____24 _ 20 _ 10 _ 14* _ 10 ___4__ 3 __85-5 = 80
Dacogawa __ (-5) _____ 23 _ 20 _ 15 _ 11* _ 10 ___4__ 2 __85-5 = 80

Con Sensus __________ 23 _ 18 _ 17 _ 07* _ 08 ___ 3__ 3 _______ 79

Rikand ______________ 22 _ 19 _ 10 _ 12* _ 07 ___3__ 5 ________78
Bsal ________________ 24 _ 14 _ 17 _ 09* _ 06 ___3__ 4 ________77
lostinashford _________ 15 _ 20 _ 17 _ 09* _ 08 ___3__ 4 ________76
mickger844posts ______ 20 _ 20 _ 18 _ 05* _ 08 ___1__ 3 ________75
john mac ____________ 20 _ 12 _ 18 _ 08* _ 10 ___ 5__2 ________75
jd __________________ 23 _ 17 _ 13 _ 06* _ 09 ___5 __1 ________74
Lumi ________________23 _ 20 _ 09 _ 07* _ 09 ___ 1 __5 _______ 74
Schadenfreudia________22 _ 18 _ 11 _ 11* _ 05 ___ 3 __3 _______ 73
dasa29 ______________18 _ 09 _ 20 _ 11* _ 08 ___ 5__ 2 _______ 73
Joe Public ____________17 _ 18 _ 11 _ 13* _ 07 ___ 4__ 1 _______ 71
MrSkinner ___________ 21 _ 14 _ 14 _ 07* _ 09 ___ 4__ 2 _______ 71
omicron _____________ 23 _ 14 _ 15 _ 08* _ 07 ___ 2__ 2 _______ 71
Jpmarn ______________23 _ 16 _ 18 _ 03* _ 05 ___ 2__ 3 _______ 70
Kindred Spirit _________21 _ 09 _ 15 _ 07* _ 10 ___ 2 __4 ________70
Harps _______________ 19 _ 15 _ 18 _ 05* _ 07 ___ 2 __3 _______ 69

Norma L (*) __________ 25 _ 01 _ 20 _ 08* _ 09 ___ 3 __3 ________69

M.T. Cranium _________ 24 _ 19 _ 05 _ 07* _ 08 ___3__ 1 ________ 67
Sunflower3 ___________22 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05* _ 10 ___ 4 __4 ________67
sryanbruen ___________20 _ 13 _ 18 _ 05* _ 04 ___ 4 __1 ________65
Tae laidir ____________ 18 _ 20 _ 04 _ 01* _ 09 ___ 5__ 5 _+2 ____64

Norma L _____________ 25 _ 01 _ 20 _ 00 __ 09 ___ 3 __3 _______ 61

Pauldry ______________23 _ 16 _ 00 _ 06* _ 09 ___ 0__ 5 _______ 59
200motels __ (-5) _____24 _ 18 _ 00 _ 06* _ 08 ___ 0__ 5 ___61-5=56
waterways ___________17 _ 04 _ 00 _ 02* _ 09 ___ 2 __4 ________38
______________________________________________________

So, congrats to DOCARCH, rameire and dacogawa who managed to beat Con Sensus in a generally high-scoring month. Watch for the updates and the annual contest updated report tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual 2015 scoring January to October


FORECASTER _________ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep_Oct ____ 2015 Total (rank) __ best 8/10 (rank)

M.T. Cranium __________68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 _ 67 __ 607 (7t) ______ 544 (1)
Jpmarn _______________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 _ 70 __ 633 (2) ______ 541 (2)

Con Sensus ___________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 _ 79 __ 652 (1) ______ 539 (3)

Lumi _________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 _ 74 __ 647 (1) ______ 536 (3t)
MrSkinner _____________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 _ 71 __ 583 (14) _____ 536 (3t)
dasa29 _______________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 _ 73 __ 625 (4) ______ 533 (5)
Rikand _______________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 _ 78 __ 627 (3) ______ 528 (6t)
DOCARCH _____________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 _ 83 __ 604 (9) ______ 528 (6t)

Norma L (*) ___________ 62 _ 70 _ 66 _ 73 _ 44 _ 52 _ 66 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 __ 619 (5) ______ 523 (8)

Bsal _________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 _ 77 __ 619 (5) ______ 521 (8t)
rameire ______________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 _ 80 __ 607 (7t) _____ 521 (8t)
mickger844posts _______ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 _ 75 __ 595 (11) _____ 517 (10)
sunflower3 ____________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 _ 67 __ 612 (6) ______ 514 (11)
Tae laidir _____________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 _ 64 __ 590 (13) _____ 511 (12)
lostinashford __________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 __ 558 (19) _____ 506 (13)
jd ___________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 _ 74 __ 574 (16) _____ 499 (14t)
Schadenfreudia _________61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 _ 73 __ 573 (17) _____ 499 (14t)
Harps ________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 69 __ 577 (15) _____ 498 (16)
John mac _____________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 _ 75 __ 597 (10) _____ 497 (17)
dacogawa _____________ 48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 _ 80 __ 539 (21) ____ 496 (18)
Pauldry _______________ 51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 _ 59 __ 592 (12) ____ 493 (19)
Joe Public _____________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 _ 71 __ 567 (18) ____ 486 (20)
kindredspirit ___________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- _ 70 __ 525 (22) ____ 478 (21)
omicron _______________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 _ 71 __ 546 (20) ____ 470 (22)

Norma L (no *) _________ 53 _ 70 _ 56 _ 65 _ 37 _ 41 _ 29 _ 55 _ 69 _ 51 __ 526 (22) ____ 460 (23)

200motels _____________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 _ 56 __ 463 (24) ____ 433 (23)
waterways _____________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 _ 38 __ 464 (23) ____ 432 (24)

see August table for past entrants with fewer scores, or October table for new entrants this month.

Norma L scored both with "mercy rule" adjustments (higher scores) and for an absolute comparison, without them (this only tells you what normal values would score without contest adjustments). Your comparison to normal is to the higher of the two scores.
__________________________________________________________

The annual race is slowly getting tighter, as the pack gains a bit on the three leaders.

High monthly scores are shown in bold type above.

Contest main scores are now shown with bottom two removed as will be the case at the end of the year. This has resulted in slight adjustments as second lowest score now comes into play.

The whole contest is quite close, there are only 27 points from first to tenth place and 58 points from first to 20th place. Almost anyone could win this with good scores in Nov and Dec.