October 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, the average temperature at five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) for October. The 1981-2010 average was 10.3 C.

2. Predict the highest temperature at any Met.ie station as reported on their website and confirmed in the Monthly Summary (MAX).

3. Predict the lowest temperature at any Met.ie station as reported on their website and confirmed in the Monthly Summary (MIN).

4. Predict the average rainfall at eleven stations (the five mentioned in part 1 and also Ballyhaise, Malin Head, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia) as a percentage of normal values, source for verifying this also in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the average sunshine hours as a percentage of normal for six locations around Ireland as reported in the Monthly Summary.

6. BONUS -- What will be the temperature (no decimal, just an integer as reported) and the relative humidity (a percentage) at the very end of the month (midnight at the end of 31st Oct and start of 1st Nov) at Markree in Sligo? Not the daily max or min, just the hourly temperature at midnight. We will verify from hourly data on the met.ie website. (see how I didn't mention ... d'oh). If you aren't familiar with r.h. values, quite often at night they are higher than daytime, they can of course range from near zero to 100% but 30% is a very low value for Ireland and 60% at night would be rather low. A dense fog or heavy rain might be associated with near 100% values. Check a few times in the hourly weather reports to get a feel for them if you need to ... first time ever for this element in our contests, I think.

As always, submit your forecasts on this thread before 0300h Friday 2nd of October to avoid penalty, or take a 5 pt per half day penalty for later entries.

Here are my forecasts which you could use as a template ...

MTC _____________ x.x __ xx.x __ xx.x __ xxx __ xxx ___ x _ xx

you weren't expecting numbers, I hope (gotta think about those)

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____________ 9.8c __ 18.4c __ -2.2c __ 110% __ 125% ___ 70% _ -1c

I predict the low Halloween temperature as Mother Nature has a funny idea of evening things out with events such as the warmest Halloween on record last year. This is my first time so did I do anything wrong?

pauldry

sryanbruen wrote: »

pauldry___________ 10.1c __ 18.7c __ -4c __ 106% __ 101% ___ 92% _ 8c

M.T. Cranium

Sryanbruen above, No that's all good, you first two entrants have gone r.h. (%) then temp (deg C) for the bonus -- later entrants may do the same or change around, doesn't matter, I will know which is which no doubt. Welcome to the carnival.

Joe Public

Joe Public _____________ 9.5c __ 18.9c __ -2.9c __ 89% __ 109%__ 2.9c ___ 69%

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 10.2 __ 18.5 __ -2.3 __ 99 __ 115 ___ 4 _ 87%

dasa29

dasa29 _____________ 9.6c __ 18.0c __ -2.0c __ 95% __ 105% ___ 1.0c _ 75%

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________ 10.1 __ 19.2 __ -2.3 __ 95% __ 110% ___ 3 _ 78%

jd

JD____________ 10.5c __ 18.8c __ -2.7c __ 109% __ 101%__ 0 ___71%

mrskinner

Skinner. 10.7........18.5........-1.4........105.......100........79%.......3

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit. (I remembered this month! )

9.9°.....18.0°.....-1.5°.....102.....97.....5.0.....89.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn 10.1°.....19.5°.....-1.8°.....115.....120.....5c.....85%.

omicron

omicron _____________ 10.5c __ 18.5c __ -1.5c __ 100% __ 110% ___ 80% _ 5

mickger844posts

mickger844posts 10.8c, 19.1c, -2.2, 110%, 85%, 6.2c, 85%

sunflower3

Sunflower3.............10.0 __ 18.1 __ -2.8 __ 110__ 95 ___ 3.1 _ 87%

lostinashford

9.3.....19.1.....-2.3.....98.....104.....4.....89.

waterways

waterways _____________ 9.5 __ 17.5__ -4.5 __ 115__ 89 ___ 5.0 _ 87

Good luck to all! Hope weather will be better than my forecast.
People here think we will get a strong winter.

Lumi

Lumi _____________ 10.1 __ 19.1 __ -3.1 __ 105 __ 90 ___ 6 _ 94

Rikand

Rikand .... 10.0 ..... 19.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 90 ..... 110 ..... 4.0 & 90%

John mac

john mac _____________ 9.8c __ 18.3c __ -2.2c __101% __ 97%__ 2.3c ___ 78%

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _________ 10.2 __ 19.0 __ -3.5 __ 105 __ 105 ___ 4 __ 73%

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____________ 9.6 __ 19.1 __ -3.6 __ 127 __ 93 ___ 1 _ 97

Harps

Any chance of leniency being only half an hour late

Harps _____________ 9.7 __ 19.6 __ -2.2 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 4.9 _ 85

M.T. Cranium

Sure, go easier on our rugby team next time would ya?

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for October 2015


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN __ PRC _ SUN ___ BONUS (Temp, rh%)

mickger844posts ______10.8 _ 19.1 _ --2.2 _ 110 _ 085 _____ 6 __ 85%
MrSkinner ___________ 10.7 _ 18.5 _ --1.4 _ 105 _ 100 _____ 3 __ 79%
jd __________________10.5 _ 18.8 _ --2.7 _ 109 _ 101 _____ 0 __ 71%
omicron _____________ 10.5 _ 18.5 _ --1.5 _ 100 _ 110 _____ 5 __ 80%
Rameire ____ (-5) _____10.2 _ 19.1 _ --3.0 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 3 __ 82%
M.T. Cranium _________10.2 _ 19.0 _ --3.5 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 4 __ 73%
200motels __ (-5) _____10.2 _ 18.9 _ --4.0 _ 108 _ 106 _____ 8 __ 90%
Bsal ________________ 10.2 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 099 _ 115 _____ 4 __ 87%
Jpmarn ______________10.1 _ 19.5 _ --1.8 _ 115 _ 120 _____ 5 __ 85%
DOCARCH ___________ 10.1 _ 19.2 _ --2.3 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 3 __ 78%
Lumi _______________ 10.1 _ 19.1 _ --3.1 _ 105 _ 090 _____ 6 __ 94%
Dacogawa __ (-5) _____10.1 _ 19.1 _ --1.5 _ 095 _ 098 _____ 3 __ 78%
Pauldry _____________ 10.1 _ 18.7 _ --4.0 _ 106 _ 101 _____ 8 __ 92%

Con Sensus __________ 10.1 _ 18.9 _ --2.3 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 4 __ 85%

Rikand ______________10.0 _ 19.0 _ --3.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 4 __ 90%
Schadenfreudia_______ 10.0 _ 18.9 _ --2.9 _ 095 _ 120 _____ 4 __ 83%
Sunflower3 __________ 10.0 _ 18.1 _ --2.8 _ 110 _ 095 _____ 3 __ 87%
Kindred Spirit _________ 9.9 _ 18.0 _ --1.5 _ 102 _ 097 _____ 5 __ 89%
sryanbruen ___________ 9.8 _ 18.4 _ --2.2 _ 110 _ 125 ____--1 __ 70%
john mac _____________9.8 _ 18.3 _ --2.2 _ 101 _ 097 _____ 2 __ 78%
Harps _______________ 9.7 _ 19.6 _ --2.2 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 5 __ 85%
dasa29 ______________ 9.6 _ 18.0 _ --2.0 _ 095 _ 105 _____ 1 __ 75%
Tae laidir _____________9.6 _ 19.1 _ --3.6 _ 127 _ 093 _____ 1 __ 97%
Joe Public ____________ 9.5 _ 18.9 _ --2.9 _ 089 _ 109 _____ 3 __ 69%
waterways ____________9.5 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 115 _ 089 _____ 5 __ 87%
lostinashford __________ 9.3 _ 19.1 _ --2.3 _ 098 _ 104 _____ 4 __ 89%
_____________________________________________

Later entries will be added to table and Con Sensus adjusted if necessary.
The bonus question will be verified from hourly report which has no decimals so
if your temp forecast had a decimal, I rounded it off ... good luck everybody

Schadenfreudia

S'freudia_________ 10.0 __ 18.9 __ -2.9 __ 95 __ 120 ___ 4 __ 83%

Agh! Nearly forgot....

rameire

Rameire _____________ 10.2 __ 19.1 __ -3.0 __ 88 __ 94 ___ 3 _ 82%

forgot it was a new month.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, have added you two in with a bit more leniency. Any more stragglers? Table can be edited further.

Oak Park 19.1 on 1st may hold up for a while as MAX.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Oak Park 19.1 on 1st may hold up for a while as MAX.

Damn! Only entered this morning and I missed yesterday's max

M.T. Cranium

Well consider the lenient penalty a compensation for that.

dacogawa

Really sorry I'm late, couldn't be helped... apologies

10.1 __ 19.1 __ -1.5 __ 95__ 98 ___ 3 _ 78%

200motels

200motels 10.2c __ 18.9c __ -4c __ 108% __ 106% ___ 90% _ 8c

mrskinner

May I question the fairness of using October 1st as max temp day?

M.T. Cranium

I think in most cases the late penalty cancels out any real advantage, but maybe some have figured out that you can check provisional values later on the first -- the problem is, some might just guess the right value too, and then you have to factor in whether it will hold up all month, otherwise it's almost a disadvantage. But I will see what others think and in any case we would change any rules for next year rather than in progress. I have been a bit lenient on penalties today because I was a bit late posting the contest and the late entrants are generally quite a bit behind in the contest anyway. There again, I have on occasion posted a double-late-penalty for values already settled before posting. This case does not look that settled so it's partly a guess that there won't be a warmer day.

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon dropped to 0.0 yesterday - the first post-summer?

pauldry

Hey lots of people seem to think 19.1c is going to be max

Why?

Me I do my forecast before the month usually as its for my own benefit and plays the game on its merits

Each to their own

Still think this Winter will rival 2010 in terms of cold n -4 or -5c very possible late October

pauldry

Its 19c up in Donegal.

Bloody hell

Tae laidir

Joaquin dying in Biscay.
So is my forecast!

M.T. Cranium

After the first week (1-7 October) ...

IMT for contest five stations is 10.74 C ... (0.7 below normal)
IMT for precip-eleven sites is 11.21 C ... (0.4 below normal)

PRC for the eleven sites is 41% of normal

SUN for the six stations used is 103.5% and 101.6% for all eight available now.

I think the MAX stays at 19.1 despite a near approach on Tuesday, and MIN is almost certainly a thing of the future.

pauldry

Min is 0.0c so far at mt dillon

Last night got to 1.4c in mullingar but cool n dry til oct 17th means imt will be 10c by midmonth n maybe -1c min n rain at 20% n sun at 120%

...hey can we all enter again.

Octobers a dead rubber

pauldry

Min down to -1c

Another chance tonight for -1c

But breezier after that.

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon reported -1.4 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Updates after the second week ...

IMT for contest five stations is 10.38 C (10.4) after a week at 10.02 ... (this continues to be 0.7 below normal)
IMT for precip-eleven sites is 10.87 C (10.9) after a week at 10.53 ... (this has dropped to 0.5 below normal)

PRC for the eleven sites is 24% of normal after a dry week at only 7%.

SUN for the six stations used is 112.7% after a week at 121.8% and 114.8% after a week at 127.9% for all eight available now.

MAX is 19.1 and MIN is --1.4

pauldry

New min -2c markree

John mac

pauldry wrote: »

New min -2c markree

what time was that ? met e have -1.3 on yesterdays weather ..

M.T. Cranium

I saw the -2 hourly at either 06 or 07 this morning -- won't be on yesterday's weather until tomorrow.

Tae laidir

Yes, -2.0 confirmed for Markee.

Oneiric 3

I put together a single blog page to help keep track of the monthly IMT values for both mean temperature and rainfall on a daily basis

http://imtstats.blogspot.ie/


The blog is only an experimental project at this stage as M.T is at this point is considering the inclusion of additional synoptic stations to the IMT means at the start of January 2016. At present, he uses the mean of 5 inland stations for temperature and the mean of 11 stations for rainfall. The data I use myself includes the means of 11 stations (the same list that M.T uses for rainfall) for both temperature and rainfall. However, M.T may include more stations may be added to this list at the start of 2016 and if so, this will be reflected on the stats in this blog page.

The purpose of this blog I hope will be to give a very quick overview of where the current IMT temp and rainfall for those who not only are interested in what way their monthly forecasts are heading but also maybe just to give a brief overview of the current monthly weather trends to those who might be interested in such.


The data in the blog page is used with kind permission from Met Eireann, and which I hope to update either day or every second day contingent on data availability.


If anyone has any questions or ideas for improvement for the blog page, or just think that the concept is totally pointless feel free to ask or put forward any suggestions as this is idea is just experimental for now.

M.T. Cranium

After third week ...

IMT now at 10.0 C after a week at only 9.32 C.
IMT for the eleven precip sites (including the five used above) is now 10.57 C after a week at 9.95 C.

The PRC is now 26% of normal, after a week at 29% of normal.

SUN now below normal at 97.3% after a week at 66.5% ... for all eight stations, sitting at 100.9% after a week at 73%.

The MAX continues to be 19.1 and the MIN is -2.0 ... more rain this coming week may move the numbers for PRC up closer to our range of forecasts, the other variables probably won't change much now.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen _____________ 9.8c __ 18.4c __ -2.2c __ 110% __ 125% ___ 70% _ -1c

I predict the low Halloween temperature as Mother Nature has a funny idea of evening things out with events such as the warmest Halloween on record last year. This is my first time so did I do anything wrong?

I am definitely wrong!

M.T. Cranium

After fourth week ...

IMT has edged up to 10.2 C after a week at 10.5 C.
IMT for the eleven precip stations also up but only fractionally to 10.6 C after a week at 10.8 C.

PRC is finally getting some business and has moved up to 51% of normal after the fourth week managed 125% of normal.

SUN has drifted down a bit further to 94.2% after a week at 84.7% for the contest six stations.
For all eight, that average is 96.9% with a similar weekly average of 85.0%.

MAX remains 19.1 and MIN -2.0

Early calls on finishing values

IMT 10.4 _ MAX 19.1 _ MIN -2.0 _ PRC 50% _ SUN 100% _ bonus 3 C 85% r.h.

that last one is still subject to considerable uncertainty as temperatures will be falling steadily under partially clear skies after a very mild day, so a bit tough to call an hourly value, not likely to be fully saturated that early into the night, maybe by 0400h or later when it might get foggy (at 0 or 1 C).