October 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, the average temperature at five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) for October. The 1981-2010 average was 10.3 C.

2. Predict the highest temperature at any Met.ie station as reported on their website and confirmed in the Monthly Summary (MAX).

3. Predict the lowest temperature at any Met.ie station as reported on their website and confirmed in the Monthly Summary (MIN).

4. Predict the average rainfall at eleven stations (the five mentioned in part 1 and also Ballyhaise, Malin Head, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia) as a percentage of normal values, source for verifying this also in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the average sunshine hours as a percentage of normal for six locations around Ireland as reported in the Monthly Summary.

6. BONUS -- What will be the temperature (no decimal, just an integer as reported) and the relative humidity (a percentage) at the very end of the month (midnight at the end of 31st Oct and start of 1st Nov) at Markree in Sligo? Not the daily max or min, just the hourly temperature at midnight. We will verify from hourly data on the met.ie website. (see how I didn't mention ... d'oh). If you aren't familiar with r.h. values, quite often at night they are higher than daytime, they can of course range from near zero to 100% but 30% is a very low value for Ireland and 60% at night would be rather low. A dense fog or heavy rain might be associated with near 100% values. Check a few times in the hourly weather reports to get a feel for them if you need to ... first time ever for this element in our contests, I think.

As always, submit your forecasts on this thread before 0300h Friday 2nd of October to avoid penalty, or take a 5 pt per half day penalty for later entries.

Here are my forecasts which you could use as a template ...

MTC _____________ x.x __ xx.x __ xx.x __ xxx __ xxx ___ x _ xx

you weren't expecting numbers, I hope (gotta think about those)

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____________ 9.8c __ 18.4c __ -2.2c __ 110% __ 125% ___ 70% _ -1c

I predict the low Halloween temperature as Mother Nature has a funny idea of evening things out with events such as the warmest Halloween on record last year. This is my first time so did I do anything wrong?

pauldry

sryanbruen wrote: »

pauldry___________ 10.1c __ 18.7c __ -4c __ 106% __ 101% ___ 92% _ 8c

M.T. Cranium

Sryanbruen above, No that's all good, you first two entrants have gone r.h. (%) then temp (deg C) for the bonus -- later entrants may do the same or change around, doesn't matter, I will know which is which no doubt. Welcome to the carnival.

Joe Public

Joe Public _____________ 9.5c __ 18.9c __ -2.9c __ 89% __ 109%__ 2.9c ___ 69%

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 10.2 __ 18.5 __ -2.3 __ 99 __ 115 ___ 4 _ 87%

dasa29

dasa29 _____________ 9.6c __ 18.0c __ -2.0c __ 95% __ 105% ___ 1.0c _ 75%

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________ 10.1 __ 19.2 __ -2.3 __ 95% __ 110% ___ 3 _ 78%

jd

JD____________ 10.5c __ 18.8c __ -2.7c __ 109% __ 101%__ 0 ___71%

mrskinner

Skinner. 10.7........18.5........-1.4........105.......100........79%.......3

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit. (I remembered this month! )

9.9°.....18.0°.....-1.5°.....102.....97.....5.0.....89.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn 10.1°.....19.5°.....-1.8°.....115.....120.....5c.....85%.

omicron

omicron _____________ 10.5c __ 18.5c __ -1.5c __ 100% __ 110% ___ 80% _ 5

mickger844posts

mickger844posts 10.8c, 19.1c, -2.2, 110%, 85%, 6.2c, 85%

sunflower3

Sunflower3.............10.0 __ 18.1 __ -2.8 __ 110__ 95 ___ 3.1 _ 87%

lostinashford

9.3.....19.1.....-2.3.....98.....104.....4.....89.

waterways

waterways _____________ 9.5 __ 17.5__ -4.5 __ 115__ 89 ___ 5.0 _ 87

Good luck to all! Hope weather will be better than my forecast.
People here think we will get a strong winter.

Lumi

Lumi _____________ 10.1 __ 19.1 __ -3.1 __ 105 __ 90 ___ 6 _ 94

Rikand

Rikand .... 10.0 ..... 19.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 90 ..... 110 ..... 4.0 & 90%

John mac

john mac _____________ 9.8c __ 18.3c __ -2.2c __101% __ 97%__ 2.3c ___ 78%

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _________ 10.2 __ 19.0 __ -3.5 __ 105 __ 105 ___ 4 __ 73%

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____________ 9.6 __ 19.1 __ -3.6 __ 127 __ 93 ___ 1 _ 97

Harps

Any chance of leniency being only half an hour late

Harps _____________ 9.7 __ 19.6 __ -2.2 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 4.9 _ 85

M.T. Cranium

Sure, go easier on our rugby team next time would ya?

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for October 2015


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN __ PRC _ SUN ___ BONUS (Temp, rh%)

mickger844posts ______10.8 _ 19.1 _ --2.2 _ 110 _ 085 _____ 6 __ 85%
MrSkinner ___________ 10.7 _ 18.5 _ --1.4 _ 105 _ 100 _____ 3 __ 79%
jd __________________10.5 _ 18.8 _ --2.7 _ 109 _ 101 _____ 0 __ 71%
omicron _____________ 10.5 _ 18.5 _ --1.5 _ 100 _ 110 _____ 5 __ 80%
Rameire ____ (-5) _____10.2 _ 19.1 _ --3.0 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 3 __ 82%
M.T. Cranium _________10.2 _ 19.0 _ --3.5 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 4 __ 73%
200motels __ (-5) _____10.2 _ 18.9 _ --4.0 _ 108 _ 106 _____ 8 __ 90%
Bsal ________________ 10.2 _ 18.5 _ --2.3 _ 099 _ 115 _____ 4 __ 87%
Jpmarn ______________10.1 _ 19.5 _ --1.8 _ 115 _ 120 _____ 5 __ 85%
DOCARCH ___________ 10.1 _ 19.2 _ --2.3 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 3 __ 78%
Lumi _______________ 10.1 _ 19.1 _ --3.1 _ 105 _ 090 _____ 6 __ 94%
Dacogawa __ (-5) _____10.1 _ 19.1 _ --1.5 _ 095 _ 098 _____ 3 __ 78%
Pauldry _____________ 10.1 _ 18.7 _ --4.0 _ 106 _ 101 _____ 8 __ 92%

Con Sensus __________ 10.1 _ 18.9 _ --2.3 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 4 __ 85%

Rikand ______________10.0 _ 19.0 _ --3.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 4 __ 90%
Schadenfreudia_______ 10.0 _ 18.9 _ --2.9 _ 095 _ 120 _____ 4 __ 83%
Sunflower3 __________ 10.0 _ 18.1 _ --2.8 _ 110 _ 095 _____ 3 __ 87%
Kindred Spirit _________ 9.9 _ 18.0 _ --1.5 _ 102 _ 097 _____ 5 __ 89%
sryanbruen ___________ 9.8 _ 18.4 _ --2.2 _ 110 _ 125 ____--1 __ 70%
john mac _____________9.8 _ 18.3 _ --2.2 _ 101 _ 097 _____ 2 __ 78%
Harps _______________ 9.7 _ 19.6 _ --2.2 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 5 __ 85%
dasa29 ______________ 9.6 _ 18.0 _ --2.0 _ 095 _ 105 _____ 1 __ 75%
Tae laidir _____________9.6 _ 19.1 _ --3.6 _ 127 _ 093 _____ 1 __ 97%
Joe Public ____________ 9.5 _ 18.9 _ --2.9 _ 089 _ 109 _____ 3 __ 69%
waterways ____________9.5 _ 17.5 _ --4.5 _ 115 _ 089 _____ 5 __ 87%
lostinashford __________ 9.3 _ 19.1 _ --2.3 _ 098 _ 104 _____ 4 __ 89%
_____________________________________________

Later entries will be added to table and Con Sensus adjusted if necessary.
The bonus question will be verified from hourly report which has no decimals so
if your temp forecast had a decimal, I rounded it off ... good luck everybody

Schadenfreudia

S'freudia_________ 10.0 __ 18.9 __ -2.9 __ 95 __ 120 ___ 4 __ 83%

Agh! Nearly forgot....

rameire

Rameire _____________ 10.2 __ 19.1 __ -3.0 __ 88 __ 94 ___ 3 _ 82%

forgot it was a new month.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, have added you two in with a bit more leniency. Any more stragglers? Table can be edited further.

Oak Park 19.1 on 1st may hold up for a while as MAX.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Oak Park 19.1 on 1st may hold up for a while as MAX.

Damn! Only entered this morning and I missed yesterday's max

M.T. Cranium

Well consider the lenient penalty a compensation for that.

dacogawa

Really sorry I'm late, couldn't be helped... apologies

10.1 __ 19.1 __ -1.5 __ 95__ 98 ___ 3 _ 78%