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New Party: The Social Democrats.

15791011

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,106 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Yes.... you forgot to post the link to the FG 2016 manifesto so we can all read & offer opinion or critique on.

    Post it when you get a chance, I was unable to find it.

    In fact, it would be best to keep the 2 parties separate so the thread remains on topic.
    You should start a thread on why the FG 2016 manifesto is so poor.

    No my question was to you. You are asking tough questions of SD such as how are they going to pay for all this.

    I have already told you, They are not going to reduce Income taxes and Slash USC out of hand. You have no answer for this though. And you refuse the ask difficult questions of FG. Why? I ask you.

    You assertion appears to be that SD have their head up their arse so to speak when it comes to pie in the sky economics yet When asked how you expect to maintain services whilst cutting Income tax and slashing USC you still have no answer for me.

    Explain why you have a hard on for questioning SD fairly logical (if you want decent services in the country you have to pay for them) to FG lets give money away to everyone. Whilst murdering our services across the board with the other hand.


    Again can you explain my direct question to you, How is the SD plan which is the opposite of what FG are proposing illogical ?

    Where is Stephen Donnelly wrong ?

    Or is this just more sound bytes to kill what could be actually the start of a real political party without dynasties and Civil War Politics involved.


    :confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    listermint wrote: »
    When asked how you expect to maintain services whilst cutting Income tax and slashing USC you still have no answer
    Oh Lister, I guess old age is failing you & your eyesight!
    I agreed with you saying:
    Obviously repeating the 'Bertie-nomics' play of hollowing out income tax in the hope that consumer confidence will remain positive & make up the difference forever, will only fail eventually.
    listermint wrote: »
    They are not going to reduce Income taxes and Slash USC out of hand.
    Lister, maintaining taxes at the current rates just maintains the status quo.... which you say results in:
    listermint wrote: »
    our existing ****e services
    So even you see that leaving things as is will not be enough.

    Again, they propose extensive expansion in state services, but make no attempt to explain how it will be paid for, when it's plain to all that the status-quo will be wildly insufficient.

    Keeping things as is simply will not be enough, not by a long shot.

    As I'm sure you are familiar, Sinn Fein's health plan will spend these per-year extra amounts on health, on top of their stated organic funding increases of 2%-3% per year:
    HSE.png
    Good for them....
    However, the SD's make zero effort to explain how they will deliver the same NHS!
    To any reader this smacks of 'half-assed' at best, disingenuous at worst.
    How is the SD plan which is the opposite of what FG are proposing illogical?
    I didn't say it was illogical (again, please quote where I said that or withdraw your remark).

    There is nothing illogical about expanding the scope, scale & range of public services.
    It is only fair to ask where this will be paid from when just maintaining existing tax rates as is will be insufficient!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,106 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Oh Lister, I guess old age is failing you & your eyesight!
    I agreed with you saying:



    Lister, maintaining taxes at the current rates just maintains the status quo.... which you say results in:

    So even you see that leaving things as is will not be enough.

    Again, they propose extensive expansion in state services, but make no attempt to explain how it will be paid for, when it's plain to all that the status-quo will be wildly insufficient.

    Keeping things as is simply will not be enough, not by a long shot.

    As I'm sure you are familiar, Sinn Fein's health plan will spend these per-year extra amounts on health, on top of their stated organic funding increases of 2%-3% per year:
    HSE.png
    Good for them....
    However, the SD's make zero effort to explain how they will deliver the same NHS!
    To any reader this smacks of 'half-assed' at best, disingenuous at worst.


    I didn't say it was illogical (again, please quote where I said that or withdraw your remark).

    There is nothing illogical about expanding the scope, scale & range of public services.
    It is only fair to ask where this will be paid from when just maintaining existing tax rates as is will be insufficient!


    Well we are being informed of reasonable growth this year (government projections) Coupled with removing the bertie nomics of handing money back to the populace en masse i would imagine will go someway to applying direction to and maintaining if not improving service.

    Get rid of this cycle of up and down.


    There is a saying that is being banded around of 'Teenage' Parties such as the SD with pie in the sky plans, Yet when you are confronted with 'authentic Adult' Politicians such as Simon Harris on the Week in Politics where he is quite evidently made a show of my Stephen Donnelly both in articulate responses, logic and plain unadulterated experience (they were talking about getting emmigrants home from london) Harris was made a joke off, it was a display of the wider 'adult' politicians we invest our vote in here.

    Old politics old plans same old same old. Excuse me if i actually get somewhat excited about the proposition of lateral thinkers getting into government.


    its a cross i have to bare.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    listermint wrote: »
    i would imagine will go someway to applying direction to and maintaining if not improving service.

    Why do you have to "imagine it?
    It says a lot if your imagination is enough to go by.

    As I've said repeatedly.... please SocDems... tell us how!

    If Sinn Feinn say they will deliver an NHS by increasing HSE funding to approx €18.5bn by 2021 then at least that's something to go on.
    SocDems promise the same, however won't tell us how much they think this will cost.

    Maybe the don't have a clue?
    Perhaps they don't want to counter their raison d'être of 'lowering our cost of living'?

    We will probably never know.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,106 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Why do you have to "imagine it?
    It says a lot if your imagination is enough to go by.

    As I've said repeatedly.... please SocDems... tell us how!

    If Sinn Feinn say they will deliver an NHS by increasing HSE funding to approx €18.5bn by 2021 then at least that's something to go on.
    SocDems promise the same, however won't tell us how much they think this will cost.

    Maybe the don't have a clue?
    Perhaps they don't want to counter their raison d'être of 'lowering our cost of living'?

    We will probably never know.

    Fair point, but for myself il take that retention of rates and USC to fund these services over FG's lets underfund it until it withers and dies.

    The only thing ive seen out of that camp are similar as you call them soundbytes "Multi Annual" health budgets..... i mean ??? what does amending the budget 4 times a year solve for when you are cutting the available funding by giving it away :confused:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Donnelly has been nominated as the Soc Dem candidate for the RTE debate - personally, I've always considered Shortall to be the best media performer, but guess the Wicklowman needs the outing, given the danger to his seat!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    but guess the Wicklowman needs the outing, given the danger to his seat!

    What danger?

    He scrapped past the SF candidate in 2011, Brady, but I predict he'll come 2nd in WW this spring.

    I didn't think he was feeling any kind of heat?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    What danger?

    He scrapped past the SF candidate in 2011, Brady, but I predict he'll come 2nd in WW this spring.

    I didn't think he was feeling any kind of heat?

    Looking at Paddy Power's odds, he might be safer than Timmins, but looks far from a shoo-in in third-place.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    Looking at Paddy Power's odds, he might be safer than Timmins, but looks far from a shoo-in in third-place.

    Cool.... I didn't know PP did constituency books.

    Untitled.png
    7-to-1-on..... I'd nearly call that a lock.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,375 ✭✭✭Boulevardier


    Ferris's odds are shorter and Cuffe's longer than I would have expected.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    The Galway West candidate, Niall O'Tuathail, records 3.5% in the first local poll - would imagine an average of 5% in the constituencies where they're standing would be their GE target, before going fully national in the 2019 locals and Europeans.

    http://www.advertiser.ie/galway/article/82413/poll-shows-clochartaigh-on-brink-of-winning-seat


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,456 ✭✭✭Icepick


    Gary Gannon, a local general election candidate for the Social Democrats, grew up in the area and was at the scene this morning.

    He said there was a “genuine sadness” and “a definite sense of fear” in the community.

    "The victim last night, he wasn’t known to be involved in any sort of criminality, he’s been around the north inner city for a long time."

    Gary Gannon needs to explain how a guy not 'involved in any sort of criminality' ends up with several criminal convictions and €156,000 seized from his bank account by CAB.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Icepick wrote: »
    Gary Gannon needs to explain how a guy not 'involved in any sort of criminality' ends up with several criminal convictions and €156,000 seized from his bank account by CAB.
    Wrong place at the wrong time? :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Averaging 3% in polls over the weekend and today - would see their three existing seats safe, but no more, one presumes.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Donnelly has been nominated as the Soc Dem candidate for the RTE debate - personally, I've always considered Shortall to be the best media performer, but guess the Wicklowman needs the outing, given the danger to his seat!

    Donnelly is a good speaker and an excellent TD.

    He will get re-elected no problem.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Averaging 3% in polls over the weekend and today - would see their three existing seats safe, but no more, one presumes.
    They have very few candidates though. Polls averaging out over the whole country can't really tell the story because people without a SD candidate (like me) can't give them any preference, either in a survey or an election.

    More telling would be polling results specifically from the constituencies in which they have a candidate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Chimichangas


    loyatemu wrote:
    we do need investment in public transport, but not to reduce fares which are already relatively low (and many users pay nothing anyway). We need to expand services by building Dart Underground and more Luas/Metro lines.

    I honestly believe if fares were lowered, revenue would go up, because some many more people would use the services.

    We don't need to lower fares so much in Dublin, but definitely in the commuter towns outside it. And I think it's more about ease of use. The leapcard is a start but it needs to be more like the London oystercard or system in Holland and completely transferable between all rail, metro and bus services. And then we need more of the services...

    Joined up thinking, but historically lacking in Ireland.
    It only gets so far...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,115 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    The leapcard is a start but it needs to be more like the London oystercard or system in Holland and completely transferable between all rail, metro and bus services.

    It is - it works on Dart, Dublin Bus, Luas, Bus Eireann, Commuter rail and numerous private services. The fare structure could be simplified but there is a weekly cap so if you put a set amount on your card each week you don't really need to worry about the individual fares.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Chimichangas


    loyatemu wrote: »
    It is - it works on Dart, Dublin Bus, Luas, Bus Eireann, Commuter rail and numerous private services. The fare structure could be simplified but there is a weekly cap so if you put a set amount on your card each week you don't really need to worry about the individual fares.
    It doesnt do enough 'numerous private services' Im afraid. But yeah I take your point, though I still prefer the oyster card. Get charged for when you get on and off the bus, not by what you tell the driver, or if you dont know exactly what the driver puts down.
    Some of those commuter rail fares jump up a bit much, or is it that theyre just not covered?
    And we still need more public transport, more often.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    The thing I like about the SDs is that they have done more to expose and resolve the rot in Irish politics than any of the government TDs. New Politics anyone?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,688 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    seamus wrote: »
    They have very few candidates though. Polls averaging out over the whole country can't really tell the story because people without a SD candidate (like me) can't give them any preference, either in a survey or an election.

    More telling would be polling results specifically from the constituencies in which they have a candidate.

    Going by Paddy Power odds Murphy, Shortall, Donnelly will all be returned- they are 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites respectively in their constituencies. Aside from that its hard to see them making a breakthrough, at least the odds aren't pointing to any other candidates who have a realistic chance of doing so. Bookies odds have many of them in the middle of the field, on a good day and with good transfers maybe there might be an upset but right now its an outside bet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,912 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    Can some one tell me where they stand in the Irish policitical spectrum?
    I have a fair idea in my own mind where other parties stand but not these?
    Are they slightly more left\right then labour for example?

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Can some one tell me where they stand in the Irish policitical spectrum?
    I have a fair idea in my own mind where other parties stand but not these?
    Are they slightly more left\right then labour for example?

    I think they have a more Social and Democratic bent than Labour. Not so hot on empty promises as well. In fact they are the only party that are not offering any.

    Mind you they do not have enough candidates to deliver on any either.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    I think they have a more Social and Democratic bent than Labour. Not so hot on empty promises as well. In fact they are the only party that are not offering any.
    They have a 58 page manifesto promising quite a lot.

    I would put them more left than Labour, pretty much where SF are.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,912 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    They have a 58 page manifesto promising quite a lot.

    I would put them more left than Labour, pretty much where SF are.

    On right Sinn Fein without the baggage. To be honest I thought to myself "Social Democrats, purple, that must be radical like a purple light sabre in star wars"
    I feel more educated on them now.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Donnelly is head and shoulders above the other leaders in the RTE debate tonight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,104 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Can some one tell me where they stand in the Irish policitical spectrum?
    I have a fair idea in my own mind where other parties stand but not these?
    Are they slightly more left\right then labour for example?

    Centre left - more left than Labour on some things like an NHS, arguably more right than Labour on others - no minimum wage increase.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,104 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I think they have a more Social and Democratic bent than Labour. Not so hot on empty promises as well. In fact they are the only party that are not offering any.

    Its a shame their manifesto is uncosted.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Its a shame their manifesto is uncosted.

    Why? They will not get into a situation where it will be put to the test. Even if nearly every candidate gets elected, they still will be in no position to expect their manifesto to be a central part of any governments programme for government. What they are saying is do not erode the tax base and there is no need to cost that.

    Costing is a bit of a joke as the parties costings are a bit partial in that their assumptions are not complete and would influence the result.

    For example, the flat tax some other party is suggesting assumes a rate of 23% but that is clearly fiction since the lowest income tax plus current USC is way above that. So what are their assumptions? They also will abolish Motor Tax and the TV Licence.

    By the way, I am not a supporter of them or any other party.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    Why? They will not get into a situation where it will be put to the test.

    Why bother writing a manifesto then?


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Its a shame their manifesto is uncosted.

    Indo report Donnelly claimed that doesn't matter:
    The Wicklow TD said the party is not going to lead the next government so putting out a full-list of costed promises is not necessary.
    "Coming out with a document that says 'well actually if we were in charge here's what we would do' and it all adds up you could see what we could do, it would give people a false impression. That's not going to happen," he told the Irish Independent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,106 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Indo report Donnelly claimed that doesn't matter:

    Ah you are still rocking around with that one, you were off 'selling' it yesterday in other threads.

    He is right they cant be in control in government, You know that they only have 14 candidates why are you being disingenuous painting what he is saying as something else.

    Is it because you want your politicians to be dis ingenious too ? It seem so.


    #oldguard


    savage work Jep.......


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    listermint wrote: »
    Is it because you want your politicians to be dis ingenious too ? It seem so.

    I think you may be taking me up wrong, in fairness.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    We don't need to lower fares so much in Dublin

    Speak for yourself. I know many people who now find carpooling cheaper than getting the DART in and out of town every day. Fares have gone up by ridiculous amounts since the start of the crash, every single year.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Ivan Yates is giving O'Tuathail (SD) a decent chance in Galway West.
    I hadn't even heard of him 2 weeks ago. They must be doing something right.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,115 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Donnelly came out of nowhere in Wicklow (he had no political background at all), if he/they can do it once presumably they can repeat the trick elsewhere this time around.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,031 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    Ivan Yates is giving O'Tuathail (SD) a decent chance in Galway West.
    I hadn't even heard of him 2 weeks ago. They must be doing something right.

    O Tuathail is a good candidate and has a very high profile campaign (he ran the pro-marriage equality campaign in Galway) but I'd be surprised if he took a seat. Three are sewn up for sure (FF, Ind, FG) and the last two have very strong contenders from SF, Labour, two Fine Gaelers and an independent left-wing councillor.
    He'll do well but I really doubt he'll be in the running for the last seat, let alone take it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,688 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    The thing I like about the SDs is that they have done more to expose and resolve the rot in Irish politics than any of the government TDs. New Politics anyone?

    Absolutely, Michael Noonan and Alan Dukes in charge of IBRC gave Denis O'Brien a massive write down which came complete with insider trading on the stock markets just before the Siteserve sale went through. Its as dodgy as you can get in the Fine Gael cesspit of corruption. But Catherine Murphy, through her 19 parliamentary questions to Michael Noonan, eventually forced him into an enquiry to the dodgy dealings. Noonan then appoints KMPG to conduct the enquiry, despite KPMG being in the pay of people who were subject of investigation. Fine Gael have really managed to look identical to Fianna Fail in their corruption during this electoral cycle.

    And speaking of Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats, Glenna Lynch is running for the party in Dublin Bay South. Back in 2011 she ended Sean Gallaghers bid for the Irish Presidency when under questioning he tried the 'that money was just resting in my account' excuse. She roasted him alive while all the other 6 candidates for the Presidency stood on the stage completely aghast at what was going on. It's well worth a watch just to see how Glenna Lynch nails him down.





    I think Glenna Lynch in the Dail would keep an eagle eye on whatever corruption Fianna Fail and Fine Gael intend getting up to from now till 2021. The entire front bench of a FG-FF coalition would sh1t their selves at the thought of facing her.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Absolutely, Michael Noonan and Alan Dukes in charge of IBRC gave Denis O'Brien a massive write down which came complete with insider trading on the stock markets just before the Siteserve sale went through. Its as dodgy as you can get in the Fine Gael cesspit of corruption. But Catherine Murphy, through her 19 parliamentary questions to Michael Noonan, eventually forced him into an enquiry to the dodgy dealings. Noonan then appoints KMPG to conduct the enquiry, despite KPMG being in the pay of people who were subject of investigation. Fine Gael have really managed to look identical to Fianna Fail in their corruption during this electoral cycle.

    And speaking of Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats, Glenna Lynch is running for the party in Dublin Bay South. Back in 2011 she ended Sean Gallaghers bid for the Irish Presidency when under questioning he tried the 'that money was just resting in my account' excuse. She roasted him alive while all the other 6 candidates for the Presidency stood on the stage completely aghast at what was going on. It's well worth a watch just to see how Glenna Lynch nails him down.

    I think Glenna Lynch in the Dail would keep an eagle eye on whatever corruption Fianna Fail and Fine Gael intend getting up to from now till 2021. The entire front bench of a FG-FF coalition would sh1t their selves at the thought of facing her.

    This really bothered me. It tool 19 Dáil questions from Murphy to get the Siteserv issue into the open. Our political system is broken when an elected TD cant get straight answers quickly.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Lockstep wrote: »
    O Tuathail is a good candidate and has a very high profile campaign (he ran the pro-marriage equality campaign in Galway) but I'd be surprised if he took a seat. Three are sewn up for sure (FF, Ind, FG) and the last two have very strong contenders from SF, Labour, two Fine Gaelers and an independent left-wing councillor.
    He'll do well but I really doubt he'll be in the running for the last seat, let alone take it.

    Not so sure...I am hearing more and more positive things about O'Tuathail as the election gets closer. He probably will not make it this time but he is fast becoming a force in Galway West, from nowhere.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,031 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    Not so sure...I am hearing more and more positive things about O'Tuathail as the election gets closer. Heprobably not make it this time but he is fast becoming a force in Galway West, from nowhere.

    He's certainly a likeable and transfer friendly candidate but given the other city based candidates, he's very unlikely to make it. For the last 2 seats, you already have Connolly, Nolan, O Clochartaigh and two Fine Gaelers, all of whom have a high profile.
    As it stands, O Tuathail's odds are at 7/1 on Paddy Power. An improvement on a few weeks ago but still odds far too long to show him as a major contender for a seat.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Lockstep wrote: »
    He's certainly a likeable and transfer friendly candidate but given the other city based candidates, he's very unlikely to make it. For the last 2 seats, you already have Connolly, Nolan, O Clochartaigh and two Fine Gaelers, all of whom have a high profile.
    As it stands, O Tuathail's odds are at 7/1 on Paddy Power. An improvement on a few weeks ago but still odds far too long to show him as a major contender for a seat.

    I think this one is too complex for Paddy Power to call accurately.

    I think Nolan will absolutely tank. He topped the poll on 1st count last time (7,489 votes borrowed from Michael D). I dont expect him to get even half that next Friday (my guess = 2500 #1 votes). With Brian Walsh gone too, I expect there to be a lot of disenchanted FG and Labour votes. It all depends on whether he gets more first preferences than Catherine Connolly. He will be very transfer friendly. It will be fascinating.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Lockstep wrote: »
    He's certainly a likeable and transfer friendly candidate but given the other city based candidates, he's very unlikely to make it. For the last 2 seats, you already have Connolly, Nolan, O Clochartaigh and two Fine Gaelers, all of whom have a high profile.
    As it stands, O Tuathail's odds are at 7/1 on Paddy Power. An improvement on a few weeks ago but still odds far too long to show him as a major contender for a seat.

    Seems almost impossible to get a read on how the SDs will perform generally in seven days time - on the one hand, the three TDs could all very well top the poll in their constituencies, yet on the other, Glenna Lynch registers 2% in a DBS poll, and many of their weaker candidates could perform similarly. 5% of the vote where they're standing seems most probable.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,535 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Absolutely, Michael Noonan and Alan Dukes in charge of IBRC gave Denis O'Brien a massive write down which came complete with insider trading on the stock markets just before the Siteserve sale went through.

    Mod Note:

    If you have proof of illegal activity please bring it forward. Otherwise don't make such accusations on thread.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,031 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    I think this one is too complex for Paddy Power to call accurately.

    I think Nolan will absolutely tank. He topped the poll on 1st count last time (7,489 votes borrowed from Michael D). I dont expect him to get even half that next Friday (my guess = 2500 #1 votes). With Brian Walsh gone too, I expect there to be a lot of disenchanted FG and Labour votes. It all depends on whether he gets more first preferences than Catherine Connolly. He will be very transfer friendly. It will be fascinating.
    Bookies ratings aren't always accurate but they are a very useful barometer for gauging party support, especially if you look at other bookies. Likewise, Boylesports have the last two seats as being between Connolly, O'Clochartaigh, Nolan and O'Mahoney.

    Nolan's biggest asset wasn't Michael D, it's his family name: his father in particular is very well known. There's also still a sizeable Labour vote in the city as evidenced in the 2014 city council elections. Nolan chances were doubted in 2011 with the assumption that Michael D's personal vote risked floating to Connolly rather than him and he then went onto top the poll. He'll be fighting for a seat but there's very little evidence that his vote will collapse.
    The Irish Times predict he'll take a seat and the Galway Advertister estimates he's vulnerable but still very much in the running for a seat
    Considering how his vote in 2011 was ~7500, the odds that it would fall to 2500 are very slim.

    Disenchanted Labour voters are more likely to be outraged by their poor economic performance. As such, their transfers are a lot more likely to go Connolly or O'Clochartaigh than another social liberal candidate. O'Tuathail is extremely transfer friendly but it's doubtful he has the voting base to stay ahead of the heavy hitters. Even if he gets ahead of Nolan (a tall order in itself), a lot of Nolan's transfers would go to Connolly and FG. Nolan's seat is certainly under threat but from other parties than the SocDems.

    I really can't see O'Tuathail taking a seat, with little evidence to suggest he has the voting base, especially when he'd be up against those with established voting blocks like two FGers, Labour, Connolly and SF. This is the general consensus of pretty much every analysis of the constituency.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 108 ✭✭saltsun


    Lockstep wrote: »
    He's certainly a likeable and transfer friendly candidate but given the other city based candidates, he's very unlikely to make it. For the last 2 seats, you already have Connolly, Nolan, O Clochartaigh and two Fine Gaelers, all of whom have a high profile.
    As it stands, O Tuathail's odds are at 7/1 on Paddy Power. An improvement on a few weeks ago but still odds far too long to show him as a major contender for a seat.

    Like yourself I've been watching the odds on PP, and I'm not at all saying you're wrong, in fact I'd agree with most of the predictions for the GWSM constituency. But.... if you take the same website and check the Kerry odds it has both Healy Raes elected to the first and second seats. Now, that also may happen, but the figures out there suggest MHR on 33% and DHR on 4%. Aren't elections fun :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,031 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    saltsun wrote: »
    Like yourself I've been watching the odds on PP, and I'm not at all saying you're wrong, in fact I'd agree with most of the predictions for the GWSM constituency. But.... if you take the same website and check the Kerry odds it has both Healy Raes elected to the first and second seats. Now, that also may happen, but the figures out there suggest MHR on 33% and DHR on 4%. Aren't elections fun :)
    The Paddy Power odds for Kerry are fairly in kilter with national polling: the poll showing DHR on 4% also sees him as likely to get elected: their combined vote is roughly two quotas and both are seen as likely to be elected due to MHR's transfers to his brother.


  • Registered Users Posts: 59 ✭✭stilltryingit


    Not happy with the Soc Dem policy of abolishing the special criminal court,those who testify need to be protected


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭VG31


    Gary Gannon is doing well in Dublin Central. Tallies are indicating around 10% for him.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    All 3 existing Social Democrat TDs are topping the polls in their constituencies.


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