NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

JaMarcusHustle

For week 1 of college football, I'm on the following:

Michigan @ Utah (-4.5)
Wisconsin vs Alabama (-10)
Bowling Green @ Tennessee (-20.5)
Duke @ Tulane (+7)
Arkansas State @ USC (-27)
UNLV @ Northern Illinois (-23)
UL Lafayette @ Kentucky (-17)
Michigan State @ Western Michigan (+17.5)

MrKingsley

Is it just me or does Cobb at 22/1 for most receiving yards absolutely massive??

kennyb3

MrKingsley wrote: »

Is it just me or does Cobb at 22/1 for most receiving yards absolutely massive??

Questionable for Week 1 at present

MrKingsley

At those odds i would take him if he was questionable for week 2

Paully D

Didn't watch him at all in pre-season, but I know some of the lads on here were talking about Tebow having half a shot at making the team. He's 15/8 to do so per Ladbrokes. 4/11 to be cut. Might interest those who think he'll make it:

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/tim-tebow/to-make-the-eagles-53-man-roster

JaMarcusHustle

Well Barkley had been traded so those are very good odds if you ask me. Kelly has said he'll carry 3 QBs.

Paully D

Has anyone been able to get money on that bet? I'm trying, but getting an error message from Ladbrokes which seems to indicate they've pulled the market. Usual bollocks from Oddschecker of late if so in not updating things, that's happened a few times to me in the last few weeks.

Glenbhoy

Anyone got any good suggestions - I used to listen to Bill Simmons, but since that's gone, I'd be interested in something that gives a decent overview and isn't too serious?

padraig_f

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Anyone got any good suggestions - I used to listen to Bill Simmons, but since that's gone, I'd be interested in something that gives a decent overview and isn't too serious?

The Simmons' podcast will be starting up again in October (incidentally, while the podcast is entertaining, some of the betting advice is awful).

In the meantime, I enjoy Behind the Bets with Chad Millman and Bob Scucci....much better tips in this one, and entertaining too.

Guffy

Paddy power allowing for multiples on the over unders this season

Sorry i should hhave said total games over and unders

Glenbhoy

padraig_f wrote: »

The Simmons' podcast will be starting up again in October (incidentally, while the podcast is entertaining, some of the betting advice is awful).

In the meantime, I enjoy Behind the Bets with Chad Millman and Bob Scucci....much better tips in this one, and entertaining too.

Agreed, often a case of going the opposite, but it was a good listen. Apparently Roger Goodell loved it too!

on_the_nickel

padraig_f wrote: »

The Simmons' podcast will be starting up again in October (incidentally, while the podcast is entertaining, some of the betting advice is awful).

In the meantime, I enjoy Behind the Bets with Chad Millman and Bob Scucci....much better tips in this one, and entertaining too.

Ross Tucker has one too, specifically on betting. Worth a listen some weeks.

matthew8

So, what are our week one fancies? I'm very confident of the Chiefs (+1) this year and I think they should be favoured away to Houston. Really unlucky not to make the playoffs last year, had a tough schedule but still beat both super bowl teams. Houston's defense is bolstered but I just don't see them putting up a whole lot of points.

I'd be quite surprised if the Bengals (-4.5) were made sweat at the Raiders. The Raiders got a few wins at the end of last season but even then they were getting thrashed every other week. I don't think Carr is a very effective QB, you won't make a career out of 5.5 YPA. Bengals have been rock solid since Dalton's arrival and should have another good season.

Can't figure out why the Cardinals (-2.5) aren't favoured by more against the Saints, that handicap says the Saints are marginally better on neutral ground (and I think they're affected more than most teams by playing away). I think Brees was below form last year and Graham's departure can't help. The Cardinals final record flattered the quality of their play but what they did with those quarterbacks is staggering and before Palmer's injury they were value for every bit of their results. Bowles' departure is a concern but the defensive personnel is still there and they should go well.

I'd be surprised for the Patriots (-7) not to win with a bit in hand at home to Pittsburgh. They were truly dominant last season after the Kansas City defeat. With Gronk healthy I don't see why they'll stop. It's hard to know what happens to Pittsburgh's defense after LeBeau's departure. The injuries to Bryant, Pouncey and Bell are big setbacks on offense. Their 11-5 record massively flattered them last year as they played the AFC South and NFC South, by far the 2 weakest divisions in the league.

The Bears (+6.5) can't seem to get the Packers beaten but are great value this week. I rate Rodgers as highly as anyone but it's folly to think he won't be affected by the loss of Jordy Nelson. I love John Fox as a head coach hire for the Bears. He massively improved the defenses in Carolina and Denver and should improve the Bears' defense.

The Falcons (+3) have to be a good bet. Their offensive line was dogged by injuries last year and a fresh start for the team with a reasonable head coach hire should help. I'm a big Chip Kelly fan but you can't just write off how the Eagles finished last year. Bradford is probably an upgrade on Sanchez but for all the hype he has never delivered to any great extent. The team also has to deal with the loss of Maclin.

I'm not sure the 49ers (+2.5) should be underdogs at all, the offseason has been devastating but Minnesota are no world beaters and there's still a fair bit of quality on that 49ers roster. Not sure about Tomsula as a head coach hiring (top guy by all accounts but has one game of head coach experience in his entire career) but I'm strong enough on the 49ers to back them regardless.

Paully D

I like the Bengals (-3.5) and Dolphins (-3.5). The Raiders won't be up to much I'd imagine and the Redskins are the definition of a shambles. I'll probably do that double for week 1. Don't want to go too mad as I find the first couple of weeks often quite unpredictable.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

So, what are our week one fancies? I'm very confident of the Chiefs (+1) this year and I think they should be favoured away to Houston. Really unlucky not to make the playoffs last year, had a tough schedule but still beat both super bowl teams. Houston's defense is bolstered but I just don't see them putting up a whole lot of points.

I'd be quite surprised if the Bengals (-4.5) were made sweat at the Raiders. The Raiders got a few wins at the end of last season but even then they were getting thrashed every other week. I don't think Carr is a very effective QB, you won't make a career out of 5.5 YPA. Bengals have been rock solid since Dalton's arrival and should have another good season.

Can't figure out why the Cardinals (-2.5) aren't favoured by more against the Saints, that handicap says the Saints are marginally better on neutral ground (and I think they're affected more than most teams by playing away). I think Brees was below form last year and Graham's departure can't help. The Cardinals final record flattered the quality of their play but what they did with those quarterbacks is staggering and before Palmer's injury they were value for every bit of their results. Bowles' departure is a concern but the defensive personnel is still there and they should go well.

I'd be surprised for the Patriots (-7) not to win with a bit in hand at home to Pittsburgh. They were truly dominant last season after the Kansas City defeat. With Gronk healthy I don't see why they'll stop. It's hard to know what happens to Pittsburgh's defense after LeBeau's departure. The injuries to Bryant, Pouncey and Bell are big setbacks on offense. Their 11-5 record massively flattered them last year as they played the AFC South and NFC South, by far the 2 weakest divisions in the league.

The Bears (+6.5) can't seem to get the Packers beaten but are great value this week. I rate Rodgers as highly as anyone but it's folly to think he won't be affected by the loss of Jordy Nelson. I love John Fox as a head coach hire for the Bears. He massively improved the defenses in Carolina and Denver and should improve the Bears' defense.

The Falcons (+3) have to be a good bet. Their offensive line was dogged by injuries last year and a fresh start for the team with a reasonable head coach hire should help. I'm a big Chip Kelly fan but you can't just write off how the Eagles finished last year. Bradford is probably an upgrade on Sanchez but for all the hype he has never delivered to any great extent. The team also has to deal with the loss of Maclin.

I'm not sure the 49ers (+2.5) should be underdogs at all, the offseason has been devastating but Minnesota are no world beaters and there's still a fair bit of quality on that 49ers roster. Not sure about Tomsula as a head coach hiring (top guy by all accounts but has one game of head coach experience in his entire career) but I'm strong enough on the 49ers to back them regardless.

I certainly agre with you on the Chiefs bet. I think that they may go off favourite by kick off. Their defence is loaded and with Eric Berry back too now, they will be fired up for that game. It's hard not to root for the Texans after hard knocks but without Arian Foster I don't think they'll be able to do much on offense. They'll need to get used to not having him there so the first few weeks could be a struggle. Chiefs to win and under 40 points if you wanted to chance a double.

I really like the Dolphins -4 too. Missed the -3 last week but I still fully expect them to dominate. The Redskins offensive line is poor at best and I think Suh and Wake will be giving Cousins fits all day. On the flip side, even though the Redskins have some good pass rushers themselves, I think that Tannehill is finally showing some improvement and he has some very decent skill players around him now with Miller, Stills, Parker, Landry and Cameron. I expect the Fins to win with something to spare.

Bengals -3.5 at the Raiders seems a good shout too. The Bengals are absolutely loaded on offence. Can you imagine Luck, Rodgers etc on that team? Hill and Bernard at running back. A healthy (hopefully) AJ Green & Marvin Jones, Sanu and Tyler Eiffert! If Dalton can be anyway effective they should average close to 30 points per game. There is a lot of optimism in Oakland this year with Mack, Carr, Amari Cooper etc all looking promising but the Bengals have reached the playoffs four straight years, I expect them to take care of business here.

While I don't like close to TD sized spreads for an away side. I do think GB will be too good for the Bears. I genuinely believe that the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL and if Cutler doesn't perform, that they could be one of teams contending for the number 1 overall pick. That might seem extreme but their defence was shocking last year, they've lost their best receiver and the QB just can't play consistently at all. I expect Rodgers to pick their secondary apart and put up 30 points and win by 10 so GB -5.5 for me in the live Sky game.

The last bet I really like but is not priced up yet is Andrew Luck over 'x' amount of pass attempts. That Bills defence is ferocious and the Colts, even though they've added Frank Gore, are not a good running team. I think they will struggle to establish the run and might find themselves behind early on. I think they will lean on Luck's arm and while he might not put up gaudy numbers, I expect him to attempt a lot of passes. Luck averaged 38.5 pass attempts last year but I think he might hit 40 this weekend. Obviously the fly in the ointment is if Buffallo can run McCoy all over the Colts D and keep luck off the field for long periods. But even if this were to happen, I think that would only encourage the Colts to abandon the running game and let Luck do the majority of the work.

padraig_f

matthew8 wrote: »

So, what are our week one fancies?

Been away and done almost no research, so probably won't have anything much on.

The Bears (+6.5) can't seem to get the Packers beaten but are great value this week. I rate Rodgers as highly as anyone but it's folly to think he won't be affected by the loss of Jordy Nelson. I love John Fox as a head coach hire for the Bears. He massively improved the defenses in Carolina and Denver and should improve the Bears' defense.

While Bears fans are very pessimistic, it probably is the right side from a betting point of view. The line implies the Bears are almost 10 points worse than the Packers, and it's just hard to be 10 points worse than anyone.

Problem areas for the Bears are the offensive line, and the defensive personnel as they switch from 4-3 to 3-4.

on_the_nickel

Jags+3 @ evens at home to Carolina is interesting. Ok the Jags are poor, but are the Panthers, with a crappy OL, Stewart at RB and no targets for Cam bar Greg Olsen. I can see the Jags winning a low scoring contest.

That_Guy

Gone for the following 4 team accumulator. No big stakes given that it's only week 1. More for interest than anything.

Patriots (-7)
Chiefs (+1)
Dolphins (-3.5)
Bengals (-3.5)

Paully D

This might interest some. Rules are available via the below link, it's too messy to include here as mobile users will be scrolling all night :pac:

http://www.spreadex.com/sports/nfl-superchallenge/

Put your NFL expertise to the test in the Spreadex NFL SuperChallenge.

Pick five matches each week of the regular season to beat the Spreadex spread/handicap.

The top 7.5% placed entrants at the end of the regular season will win big cash prizes.

*The exact amount of the cash prizes will be determined by the final number of entrants.

Entry is £250 for the season and you must hold a Spreadex account to enter.

If you do not currently have an account, open an account with Spreadex here.

Good luck!

padraig_f

Paully D wrote: »

This might interest some. Rules are available via the below link, it's too messy to include here as mobile users will be scrolling all night :pac:

http://www.spreadex.com/sports/nfl-superchallenge/

I was interested all the way up to

Entry is £250

helimachoptor

Will splurge 100 or maybe 150 on the Titans/Buccs game, i stick with the over under and at the moment its over/under 41.5

150 returns 290 on both over and under, i may wait and see what the offense is like week one, stay tuned..

skippymac6

helimachoptor wrote: »

Will splurge 100 or maybe 150 on the Titans/Buccs game, i stick with the over under and at the moment its over/under 41.5

150 returns 290 on both over and under, i may wait and see what the offense is like week one, stay tuned..

With two rookie QBs and two half decent defences you'd have to think unders in that one. Be an interesting game all the same to see the two rookies if nothing else.

Hulk Hands

helimachoptor wrote: »

Will splurge 100 or maybe 150 on the Titans/Buccs game, i stick with the over under and at the moment its over/under 41.5

150 returns 290 on both over and under, i may wait and see what the offense is like week one, stay tuned..

Think the Titans are a bet in this one, I took the +3.5 at 5/6 there recently. Would still take +3 at evs. I'd have the teams rated about even (maybe even the Titans slightly higher), given that Mariota has looked the better QB in preseason, the D looking a lot better, and the Bucs looking horrible in a few games. With the Bucs home field advantage being worth SFA (1.5 pts maybe), this line has the Bucs rated a better team, which they arent imo at this stage

matthew8

Titans and Buccs is a rotten game to call, they were both desperate last year. To only manage 2 wins in their divisions is horrible. Of the 2 I would say the Buccaneers were slightly better last year, and I think Winston will upgrade their passing game more than Mariota will upgrade the Titans' simply because the Buccaneers passing game was worse last year and he's probably got the better receiving corps.

Bills +2.5 is very interesting I think. I'm not a big Tyrod Taylor fan but he can't be that bad to beat out Manuel and Cassel. The Colts' passing game should be improved with Johnson there but the Bills pass defense was exceptional last year, even Rodgers struggled against them. They're really not that much worse than the Colts but are rated so far below them and I don't get it. Lions +3 against the Chargers too, they won 2 more games last year and the Chargers aren't a team that really thrive on home field advantage. Probably go for Panthers +3 also, Jaguars' defense is awful and after so many poor years I'd be surprised for them to be competitive.

helimachoptor

Yeah I'm leaning towards doing nothing in week one, my strategy was pretty successful last year and I got my stake back several times over but titans game is hard to call tbh

skippymac6

The more I look at it the more I like Big Ben to have a 300 yard game tonight. I think without Pouncey and Bell, that their running game is going to struggle to get off the ground. I think Big Ben is going to have to connect with Brown, Wheaton, Miller etc early and often to keep it close. Also, the Patriots front 7 is very strong while their secondary is anything but with the loss of Browner and esp Revis. Ben will be without Bryant and also Bell who is a big target for him out of the backfield too, but think he can certainly spread it around enough to get to 300.

I suppose if he is going to get anywhere near 300 yards then Brown is going to have to have a big game. He will more than draw the attention of the SB hero Malcom Butler and while Butler is a a good young player, he might find it tough against a genuine top 3 receiver in the league. Brown's yards are set at 95.5 so if the weather is decent, I'll take both of these bets later.

glued

helimachoptor wrote: »

Yeah I'm leaning towards doing nothing in week one, my strategy was pretty successful last year and I got my stake back several times over but titans game is hard to call tbh

Yeah, I'm trying to avoid doing anything this week. Steelers @ 5/2 isn't a bad bet considering it's the first week of the season.

I'd definitely avoid the Giants - Cowboys game this week. Too much going on from either side to really predict a winner although on paper the Cowboys should be beating us by a score or two. Not really comfortable backing any team this week.

UnitedIrishman

Finding it hard to find any edge in tonight's game. Would probably have been on the side of the Steelers on the handicap of Bell and Bryant were available but then the line would be different.

The overs is fairly high but both sides will be going to the air tonight a lot more. Might have a small bet on that.

Guffy

Couldn't find anything tonight.

Gronk ftd 1/2 point @ 6/1 is my bit of interest but honestly could have easily left it

JaMarcusHustle

gufc21 wrote: »

Couldn't find anything tonight.

Gronk ftd 1/2 point @ 6/1 is my bit of interest but honestly could have easily left it

Drinks on you