NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

Paully D

Title Odds (Division and Super Bowl)





Win Totals (Over/Unders)

AFC
Patriots 10, Dolphins 8.5, Bills 8.5, Jets 7.5
Colts 10.5, Texans 8.5, Titans 5.5, Jaguars 5.5
Ravens 9, Bengals 8.5, Steelers 8.5, Browns 6.5
Broncos 10.5, Chiefs 8.5, Chargers 8, Raiders 5.5

NFC
Eagles 9.5, Cowboys 9.5, Giants 8.5, Redskins 6.5
Panthers 8.5, Falcons 8.5, Saints 8.5, Buccaneers 6
Packers 11, Lions 8, Vikings 7.5, Bears 7
Seahawks 11, Cardinals 8.5, Rams 8, 49ers 7

Prop Bets

Offensive Rookie of the Year:




Defensive Rookie of the Year:

Can't find a market anywhere yet. I'll edit in due course.

Week 1 Odds/Lines

Money Line:



Point Spread:

D9Male

I think the AFC is not very deep, and I don't fancy the Patriots to follow up. They are worthy favourites, but they may struggle relatively speaking. The Ravens and Colts appeal at those prices.

I was planning to back Tampa Bay for the NFC South, but 9/1 is too skinny. Only other price that interest me is Vikings for NFC North.

Morrison J

Vikings over 7.5 wins looks a brilliant bet to me. Can't see them doing worse than 8-8.

Paully D

I know I'm a fan (however would consider myself not to be biased) but the Ravens at 10's for the AFC and 25's for the Super Bowl do look like value shots to me. Many pundits/analysts have them ranked #1 on their power rankings at the moment. They have a tough schedule but worse case scenario you should be able to lay it off for some profit during the season presuming they do as well as they usually do. I'll back both.

I'm also having a punt on Amari Cooper for Offensive Rookie of the Year at 15/2.

That's it for now but I'll have a good look over the next week or two and post any others.

D9Male

Yeah, Ravens' schedule has actually put me off betting. First four games are particularly hard on paper.

helimachoptor

I think theres (and hope) a good chance of Mariota or DGB being in contention for the rookie of the year

will likely but€5 on the Titans winning the division.. a fool and his money..:D

Titans to get over 5.5 for sure:eek:

What i'll likely do this year after taking last year off is take 200

Do over/under points on 2 games 100 each. Normally fairly reliable. Take my 200 back out and then go on from there.

MrKingsley

I think the Rams at 9s is a massive price for their division.

Also the raiders for over 5.5 and titans at 5.5 in a double

Actually the Steelers at 12s for the AFC looks tasty aswel

D9Male

I like your Rams shout. I agree the AFC is there for the taking unless the Pats maintain their excellence. I just think Baltimore trump Pittsburgh.

Can't wait. What is it, ten weeks?

Knex*

I'd be betting under for Eagles at 9.5, tbh.

Might nearly do it for Giants at 8.5 too.

matthew8

Don't back long term but Chiefs are massive value at 5/1 for the division, over 8.5 wins and as an outright AFC/ Super Bowl bet. Lots of injuries last year, tough schedule having to play both the NFC West and AFC East but still managed 9 wins, beating both Super Bowl teams fair and square. Peyton Manning has been their achilles heel recently but he may not be as effective this year.

Hulk Hands

The Vikings @49ers game is going to go off around pickem come gameday. Bit early to be tying your money up on week 1, but for those inclined there's plenty of value in the 19/20 +3

One I have backed is the Chargers to win their division at 7/2, on the back of injury news for the Broncos. Was too big to begin with

Paully D

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Vikings @49ers game is going to go off around pickem come gameday. Bit early to be tying your money up on week 1, but for those inclined there's plenty of value in the 19/20 +3

Aye, I was listening to a podcast with Steve Fezzik a few weeks ago and he was asked to pick his best bets for this season as a whole and also week 1. He chose that one and said similar with regards to the game kicking off as a pick-em.

Hulk Hands

He the lad that was doing that Ross Tucker podcast last year? Thought it was decent but stopped listening cos Ross Tucker was melting my brain. That game stuck out like a sore thumb as the Vikings over under win total is at 7.5, going near 8. The 49ers is 7 and could go 6.5. Simple logic says they shouldn't be rated the same, which this line is indicating

Paully D

The Colts at 4/11 to win the AFC South is one of the closest things you can get to printing money. A cracking price for large stakes bettors who don't mind waiting months to collect.

eagle eye

Paully D wrote: »

The Colts at 4/11 to win the AFC South is one of the closest things you can get to printing money. A cracking price for large stakes bettors who don't mind waiting months to collect.

I think it will be a lot tighter than people thiink between them and the Texans.

It really comes down to the game between them and the Texans imo. I really wouldn't like backing them at that price, I don't see it as a close to certain.

Bill O'Brien is a serous coach and he has had a season with the Texans. He has two QBs that he was worked with before and then Tom Savage who we don't know enough about yet. All it would take for the Texans to have a great season is a pretty average QB.

Knex*

I'm starting to think that taking Bills at under 8.5 might not be a terrible shout. Someone has to come out the worst from that division, and I feel like the other three teams have all improved far more (well, Pats haven't, but they're the Pats).

I don't see Bills defence being better than the Jets, and if Geno is in anyway solid, you can argue their offense is better than the Bills too.

I'm really looking forward to seeing Dolphins and Tannehil, who I'm expecting a big year from, so yeah. Bills under 8.5 for me.

matthew8

Not much point putting so much money out of commission for so long for such a small return. In any case I don't think it's a certainty, what if Luck does an ACL? They've only gone 5-5 outside of the division the last 2 years anyway, and given how weak the AFC South opposition is it's very possible they've just been flattered by their weak division. Texans could put it up to them, and even the Titans and Jaguars, it's the NFL and the margin between the worst team in the league and the best is so small so they're not completely without a chance.

Arrow in the Knee

Any given Sunday.

There's more value going for an outsider given how unpredictable the NFL can be.

Except if your the Jags.

Guffy

Arrow in the Knee wrote: »

Any given Sunday.

There's more value going for an outsider given how unpredictable the NFL can be.

Except if your the Jags.

Jags aren't that bad of a team

Mysterypunter

gufc21 wrote: »

Jags aren't that bad of a team

Thats true, still wouldnt have a bean on them. Liable to lose by twenty to anyone. Good defensive side when I watch them. But spend 40mins a week on D.

Paully D

Brady's suspension upheld. The Steelers are 13/8 to win on opening night.

Guffy

Paully D wrote: »

Brady's suspension upheld. The Steelers are 13/8 to win on opening night.

Bell out for 2 games though, will DeAngelo bring the same numbers in the box?

Arrow in the Knee

What markets do you like betting on in NFL games?
BTW I don't bet too much on the Points Spread in games.

Hulk Hands

Some great value around on season win totals with bookies not reacting over here. Two currently would be the Cowboys Under 9.5 at odds against and the Titans over 5.5 @1.95. Plenty more though

Have had one outright bet, Eagles at 12s for the NFC, 1/2 odds ew. Their division price is dropping because of the problems others in the div have had. Wont go into it too much though, its 13/2 with Pinnacle and less in Vegas. It shouldnt be anywhere near 12/14s here

Paully D

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Vikings @49ers game is going to go off around pickem come gameday. Bit early to be tying your money up on week 1, but for those inclined there's plenty of value in the 19/20 +3

Great call here. Vikings -1 at the moment.

Hulk Hands

Paully D wrote: »

Great call here. Vikings -1 at the moment.

Cheers. Had a few stabs at it, so probably have too much on it by now , have vikings over wins, SF under wins, Vikings for NFC, SF to finish last. Safe to say the game will dictate my mood for a couple of days after!

eagle eye

I don't get the love for the Eagles as Conference Champs. The NFC East is the most unpredictable division in football, all four teams have won once apiece the past four seasons. Even if a team wins this division they are very likely to be on the road in the divisional and conference rounds.

Even if you come out of that division you are not certain of anything. If I was going to have a bet on it I wouldn't look past the Seahawks and Packers.

Guffy

Any fancies on tomights games? Gota stay up.a few hours so need a bita interest

Anything looking tasty tonight guys?

Guffy

Vikes +1.5 bears +3.5 double

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Have had one outright bet, Eagles at 12s for the NFC, 1/2 odds ew. Their division price is dropping because of the problems others in the div have had. Wont go into it too much though, its 13/2 with Pinnacle and less in Vegas. It shouldnt be anywhere near 12/14s here

Eagles offense looked fantastic last night, albeit the Packers were resting some starters. This has shortened up again on Pinnacle and in the US. I'm not that mad on the eagles myself, but if the sharpest minds in the business (and their extensive data models) calculate a price, and you can back it at double that price, you'll make a profit in the long run.

JaMarcusHustle

For week 1 of college football, I'm on the following:

Michigan @ Utah (-4.5)
Wisconsin vs Alabama (-10)
Bowling Green @ Tennessee (-20.5)
Duke @ Tulane (+7)
Arkansas State @ USC (-27)
UNLV @ Northern Illinois (-23)
UL Lafayette @ Kentucky (-17)
Michigan State @ Western Michigan (+17.5)

MrKingsley

Is it just me or does Cobb at 22/1 for most receiving yards absolutely massive??

kennyb3

MrKingsley wrote: »

Is it just me or does Cobb at 22/1 for most receiving yards absolutely massive??

Questionable for Week 1 at present

MrKingsley

At those odds i would take him if he was questionable for week 2

Paully D

Didn't watch him at all in pre-season, but I know some of the lads on here were talking about Tebow having half a shot at making the team. He's 15/8 to do so per Ladbrokes. 4/11 to be cut. Might interest those who think he'll make it:

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/tim-tebow/to-make-the-eagles-53-man-roster

JaMarcusHustle

Well Barkley had been traded so those are very good odds if you ask me. Kelly has said he'll carry 3 QBs.

Paully D

Has anyone been able to get money on that bet? I'm trying, but getting an error message from Ladbrokes which seems to indicate they've pulled the market. Usual bollocks from Oddschecker of late if so in not updating things, that's happened a few times to me in the last few weeks.

Glenbhoy

Anyone got any good suggestions - I used to listen to Bill Simmons, but since that's gone, I'd be interested in something that gives a decent overview and isn't too serious?

padraig_f

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Anyone got any good suggestions - I used to listen to Bill Simmons, but since that's gone, I'd be interested in something that gives a decent overview and isn't too serious?

The Simmons' podcast will be starting up again in October (incidentally, while the podcast is entertaining, some of the betting advice is awful).

In the meantime, I enjoy Behind the Bets with Chad Millman and Bob Scucci....much better tips in this one, and entertaining too.

Guffy

Paddy power allowing for multiples on the over unders this season

Sorry i should hhave said total games over and unders

Glenbhoy

padraig_f wrote: »

The Simmons' podcast will be starting up again in October (incidentally, while the podcast is entertaining, some of the betting advice is awful).

In the meantime, I enjoy Behind the Bets with Chad Millman and Bob Scucci....much better tips in this one, and entertaining too.

Agreed, often a case of going the opposite, but it was a good listen. Apparently Roger Goodell loved it too!

on_the_nickel

padraig_f wrote: »

The Simmons' podcast will be starting up again in October (incidentally, while the podcast is entertaining, some of the betting advice is awful).

In the meantime, I enjoy Behind the Bets with Chad Millman and Bob Scucci....much better tips in this one, and entertaining too.

Ross Tucker has one too, specifically on betting. Worth a listen some weeks.

matthew8

So, what are our week one fancies? I'm very confident of the Chiefs (+1) this year and I think they should be favoured away to Houston. Really unlucky not to make the playoffs last year, had a tough schedule but still beat both super bowl teams. Houston's defense is bolstered but I just don't see them putting up a whole lot of points.

I'd be quite surprised if the Bengals (-4.5) were made sweat at the Raiders. The Raiders got a few wins at the end of last season but even then they were getting thrashed every other week. I don't think Carr is a very effective QB, you won't make a career out of 5.5 YPA. Bengals have been rock solid since Dalton's arrival and should have another good season.

Can't figure out why the Cardinals (-2.5) aren't favoured by more against the Saints, that handicap says the Saints are marginally better on neutral ground (and I think they're affected more than most teams by playing away). I think Brees was below form last year and Graham's departure can't help. The Cardinals final record flattered the quality of their play but what they did with those quarterbacks is staggering and before Palmer's injury they were value for every bit of their results. Bowles' departure is a concern but the defensive personnel is still there and they should go well.

I'd be surprised for the Patriots (-7) not to win with a bit in hand at home to Pittsburgh. They were truly dominant last season after the Kansas City defeat. With Gronk healthy I don't see why they'll stop. It's hard to know what happens to Pittsburgh's defense after LeBeau's departure. The injuries to Bryant, Pouncey and Bell are big setbacks on offense. Their 11-5 record massively flattered them last year as they played the AFC South and NFC South, by far the 2 weakest divisions in the league.

The Bears (+6.5) can't seem to get the Packers beaten but are great value this week. I rate Rodgers as highly as anyone but it's folly to think he won't be affected by the loss of Jordy Nelson. I love John Fox as a head coach hire for the Bears. He massively improved the defenses in Carolina and Denver and should improve the Bears' defense.

The Falcons (+3) have to be a good bet. Their offensive line was dogged by injuries last year and a fresh start for the team with a reasonable head coach hire should help. I'm a big Chip Kelly fan but you can't just write off how the Eagles finished last year. Bradford is probably an upgrade on Sanchez but for all the hype he has never delivered to any great extent. The team also has to deal with the loss of Maclin.

I'm not sure the 49ers (+2.5) should be underdogs at all, the offseason has been devastating but Minnesota are no world beaters and there's still a fair bit of quality on that 49ers roster. Not sure about Tomsula as a head coach hiring (top guy by all accounts but has one game of head coach experience in his entire career) but I'm strong enough on the 49ers to back them regardless.

Paully D

I like the Bengals (-3.5) and Dolphins (-3.5). The Raiders won't be up to much I'd imagine and the Redskins are the definition of a shambles. I'll probably do that double for week 1. Don't want to go too mad as I find the first couple of weeks often quite unpredictable.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

So, what are our week one fancies? I'm very confident of the Chiefs (+1) this year and I think they should be favoured away to Houston. Really unlucky not to make the playoffs last year, had a tough schedule but still beat both super bowl teams. Houston's defense is bolstered but I just don't see them putting up a whole lot of points.

I'd be quite surprised if the Bengals (-4.5) were made sweat at the Raiders. The Raiders got a few wins at the end of last season but even then they were getting thrashed every other week. I don't think Carr is a very effective QB, you won't make a career out of 5.5 YPA. Bengals have been rock solid since Dalton's arrival and should have another good season.

Can't figure out why the Cardinals (-2.5) aren't favoured by more against the Saints, that handicap says the Saints are marginally better on neutral ground (and I think they're affected more than most teams by playing away). I think Brees was below form last year and Graham's departure can't help. The Cardinals final record flattered the quality of their play but what they did with those quarterbacks is staggering and before Palmer's injury they were value for every bit of their results. Bowles' departure is a concern but the defensive personnel is still there and they should go well.

I'd be surprised for the Patriots (-7) not to win with a bit in hand at home to Pittsburgh. They were truly dominant last season after the Kansas City defeat. With Gronk healthy I don't see why they'll stop. It's hard to know what happens to Pittsburgh's defense after LeBeau's departure. The injuries to Bryant, Pouncey and Bell are big setbacks on offense. Their 11-5 record massively flattered them last year as they played the AFC South and NFC South, by far the 2 weakest divisions in the league.

The Bears (+6.5) can't seem to get the Packers beaten but are great value this week. I rate Rodgers as highly as anyone but it's folly to think he won't be affected by the loss of Jordy Nelson. I love John Fox as a head coach hire for the Bears. He massively improved the defenses in Carolina and Denver and should improve the Bears' defense.

The Falcons (+3) have to be a good bet. Their offensive line was dogged by injuries last year and a fresh start for the team with a reasonable head coach hire should help. I'm a big Chip Kelly fan but you can't just write off how the Eagles finished last year. Bradford is probably an upgrade on Sanchez but for all the hype he has never delivered to any great extent. The team also has to deal with the loss of Maclin.

I'm not sure the 49ers (+2.5) should be underdogs at all, the offseason has been devastating but Minnesota are no world beaters and there's still a fair bit of quality on that 49ers roster. Not sure about Tomsula as a head coach hiring (top guy by all accounts but has one game of head coach experience in his entire career) but I'm strong enough on the 49ers to back them regardless.

I certainly agre with you on the Chiefs bet. I think that they may go off favourite by kick off. Their defence is loaded and with Eric Berry back too now, they will be fired up for that game. It's hard not to root for the Texans after hard knocks but without Arian Foster I don't think they'll be able to do much on offense. They'll need to get used to not having him there so the first few weeks could be a struggle. Chiefs to win and under 40 points if you wanted to chance a double.

I really like the Dolphins -4 too. Missed the -3 last week but I still fully expect them to dominate. The Redskins offensive line is poor at best and I think Suh and Wake will be giving Cousins fits all day. On the flip side, even though the Redskins have some good pass rushers themselves, I think that Tannehill is finally showing some improvement and he has some very decent skill players around him now with Miller, Stills, Parker, Landry and Cameron. I expect the Fins to win with something to spare.

Bengals -3.5 at the Raiders seems a good shout too. The Bengals are absolutely loaded on offence. Can you imagine Luck, Rodgers etc on that team? Hill and Bernard at running back. A healthy (hopefully) AJ Green & Marvin Jones, Sanu and Tyler Eiffert! If Dalton can be anyway effective they should average close to 30 points per game. There is a lot of optimism in Oakland this year with Mack, Carr, Amari Cooper etc all looking promising but the Bengals have reached the playoffs four straight years, I expect them to take care of business here.

While I don't like close to TD sized spreads for an away side. I do think GB will be too good for the Bears. I genuinely believe that the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL and if Cutler doesn't perform, that they could be one of teams contending for the number 1 overall pick. That might seem extreme but their defence was shocking last year, they've lost their best receiver and the QB just can't play consistently at all. I expect Rodgers to pick their secondary apart and put up 30 points and win by 10 so GB -5.5 for me in the live Sky game.

The last bet I really like but is not priced up yet is Andrew Luck over 'x' amount of pass attempts. That Bills defence is ferocious and the Colts, even though they've added Frank Gore, are not a good running team. I think they will struggle to establish the run and might find themselves behind early on. I think they will lean on Luck's arm and while he might not put up gaudy numbers, I expect him to attempt a lot of passes. Luck averaged 38.5 pass attempts last year but I think he might hit 40 this weekend. Obviously the fly in the ointment is if Buffallo can run McCoy all over the Colts D and keep luck off the field for long periods. But even if this were to happen, I think that would only encourage the Colts to abandon the running game and let Luck do the majority of the work.

padraig_f

matthew8 wrote: »

So, what are our week one fancies?

Been away and done almost no research, so probably won't have anything much on.

The Bears (+6.5) can't seem to get the Packers beaten but are great value this week. I rate Rodgers as highly as anyone but it's folly to think he won't be affected by the loss of Jordy Nelson. I love John Fox as a head coach hire for the Bears. He massively improved the defenses in Carolina and Denver and should improve the Bears' defense.

While Bears fans are very pessimistic, it probably is the right side from a betting point of view. The line implies the Bears are almost 10 points worse than the Packers, and it's just hard to be 10 points worse than anyone.

Problem areas for the Bears are the offensive line, and the defensive personnel as they switch from 4-3 to 3-4.

on_the_nickel

Jags+3 @ evens at home to Carolina is interesting. Ok the Jags are poor, but are the Panthers, with a crappy OL, Stewart at RB and no targets for Cam bar Greg Olsen. I can see the Jags winning a low scoring contest.

That_Guy

Gone for the following 4 team accumulator. No big stakes given that it's only week 1. More for interest than anything.

Patriots (-7)
Chiefs (+1)
Dolphins (-3.5)
Bengals (-3.5)

Paully D

This might interest some. Rules are available via the below link, it's too messy to include here as mobile users will be scrolling all night :pac:

http://www.spreadex.com/sports/nfl-superchallenge/

Put your NFL expertise to the test in the Spreadex NFL SuperChallenge.

Pick five matches each week of the regular season to beat the Spreadex spread/handicap.

The top 7.5% placed entrants at the end of the regular season will win big cash prizes.

*The exact amount of the cash prizes will be determined by the final number of entrants.

Entry is £250 for the season and you must hold a Spreadex account to enter.

If you do not currently have an account, open an account with Spreadex here.

Good luck!

padraig_f

Paully D wrote: »

This might interest some. Rules are available via the below link, it's too messy to include here as mobile users will be scrolling all night :pac:

http://www.spreadex.com/sports/nfl-superchallenge/

I was interested all the way up to

Entry is £250