Scottish independence - less or more likely with Tory victory?

MakeEmLaugh

Fleawuss wrote: »

Sad to see the return of nationalism. The re-Balkanization of Europe is underway.

Wanting Scotland to become independent is undoubtedly nationalism.

However, wanting Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom is also nationalism, albeit British nationalism.

fryup

dubscottie wrote: »

At the end of the day.. The SNP got less than 50% of the vote..

When the elections happen for the Scottish parliament next year we will see the true result.

is the vote for scottish parliament proportional representation ??

A Dub in Glasgo

Yes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament#Members.2C_constituencies_and_voting_systems

ancapailldorcha

Definitely. They're not fond of the Tories so the current results in England give them more motivation ever to leave.

feargale

Fleawuss wrote: »

Sad to see the return of nationalism. The re-Balkanization of Europe is underway.

Would you debalkanise the Balkans? Say return Bulgaria, Albania and Greece to Turkey and Croatia and Bosnia to Austria?
Balkanisation is an old shibboleth that's introduced, usually by economic interests that couldn't give a fig about the people involved, whenever a people seek self-determination. Mind you, the imperial powers did a fair old bit of Balkanisation in Africa where borders were drawn with no regard to ethnic groups. The results are sorely felt today.

Fleawuss

Interesting about how a No to independence can be revisited so quickly according to chat here but a Yes would presumably be irrevocable due to legal complexities etc. Leave the UK but join a stronger more centralised EU if Brexit goes ahead on foot of failure to secure reforms to weaken said strength and centralisation.

alaimacerc

Fleawuss wrote: »

Interesting about how a No to independence can be revisited so quickly according to chat here[...]

Only in the event that Cameron's Euroseptic grandstanding frog-marches Scotland into leaving the EU against its wishes, with similarly reckless pace. Are you suggesting that in such an event Scotland be compelled to languish outside the EU for some unspecified "cooling off" period after the 2014 indyref?

but a Yes would presumably be irrevocable due to legal complexities etc.

Why? Nation-states have done so before. Such as... Well, Scotland and England spring to mind. That explicitly had to deal with two separate legal systems... which remain separate, to this day. And other problems besides. There would be no legal impossibility here. Would it be politically possible? Well, it's certainly hard to see a "yes, rejoin the UK!" campaign being won on the same basis as Project Fear. "You're a failure as an independent country! Join us! Not that we even want you!"

Leave the UK but join a stronger more centralised EU if Brexit goes ahead on foot of failure to secure reforms to weaken said strength and centralisation.

No, rejoin exactly the same EU that it'd just been forced out of against its wishes. There's no magic centralisation ratchet that operates by default. Especially given the manifest lack of appetite for further attempts at treaty change. Perhaps one in which the debate about reform might in due course be less toxic, though.

And obviously, considerably less centralised than the UK, which is extremely so, even by sovereign state standards.

IrishTrajan

If the UK votes to leave the EU, and Scotland gains the ability to vote on membership, does that not mean that Northern Ireland and Wales would do so also? Would England leave the EU if it means the breakup of Britain and the Kingdom as a whole?

alaimacerc

IrishTrajan wrote: »

If the UK votes to leave the EU, and Scotland gains the ability to vote on membership, does that not mean that Northern Ireland and Wales would do so also? Would England leave the EU if it means the breakup of Britain and the Kingdom as a whole?

I think you mean "should", perhaps. Clearly there's no automaticity here, it's a political question. The precedent of Scotland being able to determine its status wrt the Union has been established. There's no live issue of Welsh or NI independence, so it doesn't arise on any practical level. The latter would also be contrary to the GFA, come to that.

SF have mooted the idea of some sort of separate vote for NI on BrExit (perhaps confused or upset that it's called "BrExit"), but they have no practical way of addressing the issue. Best regarded as "SF giving out yards in all directions, as per".

sarumite

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

1. The SNP are sweeping all aside and will have dramatically increased their MP numbers from 6 to 50 something

2. It looks like there will be no Tory MPs in Scotland

The above will have major issues over democratic legitimacy and the whipping up of English nationalism by the Tories and the media could well have holed the union below the waterline

There is also the questions of democratic legitimacy with respect to the SNP. They only got about 50% of the vote in Scotland, yet they got the vast majority of the seats. There representation of the Scottish people doe not accurately reflect the will of the Scottish people. If they start shouting about legitimacy too much, they may find themselves in a weaker position than they bargained for.

A Dub in Glasgo

sarumite wrote: »

There is also the questions of democratic legitimacy with respect to the SNP. They only got about 50% of the vote in Scotland, yet they got the vast majority of the seats. There representation of the Scottish people doe not accurately reflect the will of the Scottish people. If they start shouting about legitimacy too much, they may find themselves in a weaker position than they bargained for.

I am fully aware of that and that is why I have argued on here and elsewhere for PR. Unless you also argue for PR, you cannot berate the SNP for benefiting from the system that they have no control over

sarumite

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I am fully aware of that and that is why I have argued on here and elsewhere for PR. Unless you also argue for PR, you cannot berate the SNP for benefiting from the system that they have no control over

I lived for 7 years in a safe Tory seat, my vote didn't matter one iota. I am an avid and vocal supporter of PR. All I was saying is that the SNP would need to be careful about talking about democratic legitimacy when discussing the lack of a Tory MP in Scotland as it also exposes themselves to the same questions.

Sand

The Diabolical Monocle wrote: »

well it may not mean independence but it is a very significant statistic.

if you meet a Scottish person theres a greater chance of them not wanting to be British than wanting to be British.

Given the punch in the face the recent UK election results gave to polling companies, I think you might need to be a little more cautious with the results of a poll run on a sample size of a few thousand respondents.

There is obviously no accurate data kept on how anyone voted in a referendum so claims about how people voted other than a majority of those entitled to vote saying no are just that, claims.

A Dub in Glasgo

Sand wrote: »

Given the punch in the face the recent UK election results gave to polling companies

I thought most of the polls had a margin of error of 3% therefore the polls were +/- 3% so they should have been reported in a range. I think the final result mirrored most polls when looking at the range

eire4

sarumite wrote: »

There is also the questions of democratic legitimacy with respect to the SNP. They only got about 50% of the vote in Scotland, yet they got the vast majority of the seats. There representation of the Scottish people doe not accurately reflect the will of the Scottish people. If they start shouting about legitimacy too much, they may find themselves in a weaker position than they bargained for.

Democratic legitimacy please. Labour were in second in Scotland on abour 25% of the vote thats a massive margin between them and the SNP at 50%. Does FPTP make it more difficult for smaller parties or those getting a lower percentage vote to win yes it does. But the SNP clearly won a big victory in this election in Scottish terms. Next year will see the Scottish elections which are run on a PR basis so the smaller parties will have more of a chance to win seats then.

alaimacerc

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I thought most of the polls had a margin of error of 3% therefore the polls were +/- 3% so they should have been reported in a range. I think the final result mirrored most polls when looking at the range

They were at best on the edge of the MoE. For every poll to go that way very strongly statistically implies there's more than just random sampling error going on. If you average five polls, say -- and there were a lot more than that! -- the net MoE should in theory drop to 1.4%.

sarumite

eire4 wrote: »

Democratic legitimacy please. Labour were in second in Scotland on abour 25% of the vote thats a massive margin between them and the SNP at 50%. Does FPTP make it more difficult for smaller parties or those getting a lower percentage vote to win yes it does. But the SNP clearly won a big victory in this election in Scottish terms. Next year will see the Scottish elections which are run on a PR basis so the smaller parties will have more of a chance to win seats then.

FPTP means that a party such as the Green party can get almost the same number of votes as the SNP and yet have 55 fewer MP's. The SNP won 50% of the vote and got over 90% of the seats. They representation in Parliament far exceeds their share of the Scottish vote. That is the system they are operating in, so all is fair in love and war etc. However it is also the system that means the Tories have a majority in London with only one Tory MP coming from Scotland. They cannot complain about their under-representation in the British government without drawing attention to their over representation in the British parliament.

A Dub in Glasgo

sarumite wrote: »

They cannot complain about their under-representation in the British government without drawing attention to their over representation in the British parliament.

They can as it is their policy to have PR for all elections in the UK, it is the Tories & Labour who cannot complain as they oppose PR therefore it is they who want their cake and eat it

sarumite

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

They can as it is their policy to have PR for all elections in the UK, it is the Tories & Labour who cannot complain as they oppose PR therefore it is they who want their cake and eat it

I think you misread me. I didn't say "They can't complain." I said "They cannot complain about their under-representation in the British government without drawing attention to their over representation in the British parliament." Whether they support or oppose PR, my statement holds true.

A Dub in Glasgo

I am not sure I understand anymore, the SNP has not complained about their under representation in the British Government (they were never going to be in the British Government). I raised the issue of legitimacy over a Tory Government ruling Scotland when that Government got 15% of the vote in Scotland. I am well aware that the SNP got 50% of the vote in Scotland and that equates to 95% of the seats

Godge

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I am not sure I understand anymore, the SNP has not complained about their under representation in the British Government (they were never going to be in the British Government). I raised the issue of legitimacy over a Tory Government ruling Scotland when that Government got 15% of the vote in Scotland. I am well aware that the SNP got 50% of the vote in Scotland and that equates to 95% of the seats

The FG/Labour government only got 25% of the vote in Donegal South-West last time out. They had 18% in the 2014 Dublin West by-election and 17% in the Dublin South-West by-election.

Not all governments will be popular in all parts of their jurisdiction.

sarumite

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I am not sure I understand anymore, the SNP has not complained about their under representation in the British Government (they were never going to be in the British Government). I raised the issue of legitimacy over a Tory Government ruling Scotland when that Government got 15% of the vote in Scotland. I am well aware that the SNP got 50% of the vote in Scotland and that equates to 95% of the seats

There may have been some mis-communication between us. The SNP could indeed complain about that as they argued in favour of independence, but their complaint should be directed to the people in Scotland who voted no to independence. They chose to remain part of the UK and therefore chose to remain under the jurisdiction of the UK government.

A Dub in Glasgo

Godge wrote: »

The FG/Labour government only got 25% of the vote in Donegal South-West last time out. They had 18% in the 2014 Dublin West by-election and 17% in the Dublin South-West by-election.

The last time I checked Donegal SW is not a nation within a political union

Iwasfrozen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I am not sure I understand anymore, the SNP has not complained about their under representation in the British Government (they were never going to be in the British Government). I raised the issue of legitimacy over a Tory Government ruling Scotland when that Government got 15% of the vote in Scotland. I am well aware that the SNP got 50% of the vote in Scotland and that equates to 95% of the seats

The Tories have democratic right to rule over the United Kingdom. Their support in Scotland is irrelevant.

Apply that logic to Texas and it sounds rightly ridiculous.

A Dub in Glasgo

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The Tories have democratic right to rule over the United Kingdom. Their support in Scotland is irrelevant.

Don't forget on 36.9% of the vote as well

I would not go as far as calling the Tory support in Scotland irrelevant, I work with a few of them :pac:

Iwasfrozen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Don't forget on 36.9% of the vote as well

I would not go as far as calling the Tory support in Scotland irrelevant, I work with a few of them :pac:

I'm not calling Tory support in Scotland irrelevant.

I'm calling the Tories ability or inability to gain a majority in Scotland irrelevant to their right to rule over the United Kingdom, which Scotland is part off.

Godge

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The last time I checked Donegal SW is not a nation within a political union

Last time I checked Scotland voted no to becoming a nation.

The Diabolical Monocle

Sand wrote: »

Given the punch in the face the recent UK election results gave to polling companies, I think you might need to be a little more cautious with the results of a poll run on a sample size of a few thousand respondents.

There is obviously no accurate data kept on how anyone voted in a referendum so claims about how people voted other than a majority of those entitled to vote saying no are just that, claims.

A claim in itself.

You claim one thing, the Political scientist Professor who conducted the biggest survey on the topic so far claims another.

Who to trust.

A Dub in Glasgo

Godge wrote: »

Last time I checked Scotland voted no to becoming a nation.

You need to check again

'Should Scotland be an independent country?'

sarumite

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

You need to check again

'Should Scotland be an independent country?'

I think that is semantics. It was pretty obvious what Godge meant. Scotland had the choice to become independent from London and chose not to.