Scottish independence - less or more likely with Tory victory?

MakeEmLaugh

It looks as though David Cameron and the Conservatives will remain in power in the UK.

As they refuse to share power with the Scottish National Party, does this mean Scots will become more disillusioned with Westminster, and a majority of residents will actually vote for independence in another referendum?

Or has that ship sailed?

Jelle1880

MakeEmLaugh wrote: »

It looks as though David Cameron and the Conservatives will remain in power in the UK.

As they refuse to share power with the Scottish National Party, does this mean Scots will become more disillusioned with Westminster, and a majority of residents will actually vote for independence in another referendum?

Or has that ship sailed?

Don't you mean the other way around ? The SNP are the ones who said they will vote down every Tory government.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/exclusive-alex-salmond-says-snp-would-vote-down-tories-queen-s-speech

I can see another referendum happening in about 5-6 years, after today the SNP will get nothing done in Westminster (unless they break their promise), they will of course blame the Tories and further strengthen their case for independence, away from the evil English.

A Dub in Glasgo

A few points

1. A referendum can only be granted when the SNP put it to the electorate next year for the Scottish Parliament elections

2. Assuming the SNP get an overall majority in the PR election, they can enact their manifesto

3. The UK Parliament then has to grant the Scottish Parliament the legal force to have another referendum

Whilst that is being pondered, consider what is currently happening in Scotland

1. The SNP are sweeping all aside and will have dramatically increased their MP numbers from 6 to 50 something

2. It looks like there will be no Tory MPs in Scotland

The above will have major issues over democratic legitimacy and the whipping up of English nationalism by the Tories and the media could well have holed the union below the waterline

Mr.Nice Guy

I said this a few days ago and I'll say again that the pledge to hold an EU referendum in 2017 by the Tories will be the perfect justification for Nicola Sturgeon to abandon the initial promise of the referendum being 'once in a generation'. She can quite rightly point out that this is an exceptional circumstance.

The big question for me is campaign weariness. Will there be enough support there to get it over the line even with all the momentum, plus the anti-EU electorate in the south of England? I'm not sure, but I do think it will be tough to top the momentum that they have now. Surely the only way from here is down, so perhaps it's best to seize the moment...

porsche959

Cameron is having a very good night, but he knows that his party has zero legitimacy in Scotland. Rumour the Conservatives will offer fiscal autonomy to SNP. Independence in all but name.

Jelle1880

porsche959 wrote: »

Cameron is having a very good night, but he knows that his party has zero legitimacy in Scotland. Rumour the Conservatives will offer fiscal autonomy to SNP. Independence in all but name.

Sturgeon just said that she would turn down devo max and FFA from Cameron as 'anything the Tories do is bad for Scotland'.
It looked like she just resorted to the stock answers and didn't really understand the question. Refusing FFA would be political madness after what happened today.

Giving Scotland FFA would be a massive bluff from Cameron. If Scotland manages with it they are basically out of the Union, if they fail the economy will go down the drain even further.

ardmacha

Fiscal autonomy is a bit of a trojan horse. Macroeconomic policies could be run in a way that favour SE England but not Scotland, such as the high value of sterling at present, and so economic activity would be diminished in Scotland and revenues reduced accordingly. The fiscal autonomy would not really be full in practice too. If I was the SNP I would be wary of this.

BlaasForRafa

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

1. The SNP are sweeping all aside and will have dramatically increased their MP numbers from 6 to 50 something

The first past the post system distorts the results dramatically.

Even if they did get another referendum, there's no guarantee that it would pass anyway, Scotland has rejected independence already in 2014.

MakeEmLaugh

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

The first past the post system distorts the results dramatically.

Even if they did get another referendum, there's no guarantee that it would pass anyway, Scotland has rejected independence already in 1979 and 2014.

True. That said, a majority of Scottish-born people (52.7%) voted 'Yes' to independence. It was English, Welsh and Irish voters - as well as voters from further afield - who live in Scotland that ultimately led to the referendum's defeat.

You can read more about it here.

jank

Did they only vote for this last year? Will this be like an EU referendum that the electorate get to vote on it multiple times until they get the 'right' answer?

porsche959

jank wrote: »

Did they only vote for this last year? Will this be like an EU referendum that the electorate get to vote on it multiple times until they get the 'right' answer?

No, it would be absolutely nothing like that. Promises made have not been kept. As a result, the two largest Westminster based parties have no credibility or mandate in Scotland.

alaimacerc

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Even if they did get another referendum, there's no guarantee that it would pass anyway, Scotland has rejected independence already in 1979 and 2014.

I think you're a bit confused as to a) what the 1979 referendum was on, and b) which side of the then question got the more votes.

alaimacerc

porsche959 wrote: »

Well, BlassforRafa is confused about a lot of things.

Hrm, fair enough. Perhaps I should just have confined myself to the factual point, then, lest my more generalised observation seem generic and banal!

Jelle1880

MakeEmLaugh wrote: »

True. That said, a majority of Scottish-born people (52.7%) voted 'Yes' to independence. It was English, Welsh and Irish voters - as well as voters from further afield - who live in Scotland that ultimately led to the referendum's defeat.

You can read more about it here.

That doesn't mean much though, it was a referendum open to all people that call Scotland their home, which imo is only right.

The Diabolical Monocle

Jelle1880 wrote: »

That doesn't mean much though, it was a referendum open to all people that call Scotland their home, which imo is only right.

well it may not mean independence but it is a very significant statistic.

if you meet a Scottish person theres a greater chance of them not wanting to be British than wanting to be British.

FreudianSlippers

I think Scotland wants to stay in the EU, so I'd imagine that there will be a lot of negotiations regarding Scotland's position in the lead up to the in-out referendum.

If the UK stays in, I think Scotland (like Ireland potentially would) benefits from being an independently run country with close socio-economic ties to England; outside of the EU, I'm not so sure where Scotland fits in, but I'm sure they see themselves as players (if that's true or not, I'm not sure).

IrishTrajan

MakeEmLaugh wrote: »

It looks as though David Cameron and the Conservatives will remain in power in the UK.

As they refuse to share power with the Scottish National Party, does this mean Scots will become more disillusioned with Westminster, and a majority of residents will actually vote for independence in another referendum?

Or has that ship sailed?

I don't think you're allowed to keep launching new independence referendums until you get the one with the answer you wanted

For Reals

IrishTrajan wrote: »

I don't think you're allowed to keep launching new independence referendums until you get the one with the answer you wanted

..outside of Ireland.

firemansam4

I think the results can be a bit misleading though. Yes the SNP seems to have litererly taken control of Scotland with there support. But if you look at the percentage of the vote I think they have 50%

All the other parties in contention where all pro-union and all the pro-union votes have been split between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, thus none of them really beeing able to compete for seats.

Also I wonder how many people who voted to keep the Union are a little peeved with not getting all that was promised to them before the Independance referendom and are now just showing a protest vote...

Sand

ardmacha wrote: »

Fiscal autonomy is a bit of a trojan horse. Macroeconomic policies could be run in a way that favour SE England but not Scotland, such as the high value of sterling at present, and so economic activity would be diminished in Scotland and revenues reduced accordingly. The fiscal autonomy would not really be full in practice too. If I was the SNP I would be wary of this.

The SNP wanted to share the pound sterling with London very recently in a bizarre and difficult to follow plan, so their only ground for rejecting essentially the same deal would be that they now realise there is significant benefits for Scotland remaining in the UK and their argument in the referendum was naive and poorly thought through.

Which is likely why it was rejected.

MakeEmLaugh wrote: »

True. That said, a majority of Scottish-born people (52.7%) voted 'Yes' to independence. It was English, Welsh and Irish voters - as well as voters from further afield - who live in Scotland that ultimately led to the referendum's defeat.

You can read more about it here.

No true Scotsman!

eire4

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I think Scotland wants to stay in the EU, so I'd imagine that there will be a lot of negotiations regarding Scotland's position in the lead up to the in-out referendum.

If the UK stays in, I think Scotland (like Ireland potentially would) benefits from being an independently run country with close socio-economic ties to England; outside of the EU, I'm not so sure where Scotland fits in, but I'm sure they see themselves as players (if that's true or not, I'm not sure).

For me this was one of the most mind blowing parts of the Independance referendum. You had the no side telling Scotland that if you vote yes then you will have to apply for EU membership and you might not get in. Yet at the same time the Tories were committed to holding a referendum on leaving the EU anyway.

Sand

Only a semi related point, but I noticed that David Cameron was quite generous in his tribute to Miliband as he resigned, basically saying that Milibands call to congratulate him was another sign that Miliband was a great guy and honest, decent British person who wanted the best for his country. Which was a change from calling him weak and snivelling, and implying he would sell the UK out to the SNP for a foot in Number 10.

I just thought it was be intriguing if more politicians didn't wait to allow their opponents weren't vile, evil conniving traitors and idiots until after the election, would the voters respond to it or punish it? I recall John McCain in 2008 getting jeered by his own supporters for defending Obama as a decent family man, citizen and not someone they needed to be scared of as POTUS. And he lost.

fryup

just 9 months back they voted 55 - 45 % to stay in the UK

and now this i'm baffled

Sand

They want to stay in the UK, but believe the SNP will get them a better deal *in* than Labour will? Sick of the Westminster establishment (UKIP are another symptom of that - they got now seats but close to 1 in 8 votes)?

Cork boy 55

Who gets to decide if a new referendum is run?

Iwasfrozen

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Who gets to decide if a new referendum is run?

Parliament must grant authority for another referendum. So the PM ultimately.

househero

IMO they are a rete bunch of idiots for not voting for independence last time.

So many countries killed for freedom from the Brits. The Scots were given an easy way out but declined.

They were told oil was running out...
1 month after the referendum, oil production was increased by 40% ...did Shell & BP cut production before the vote to screw up the SNPs campaign?

I wouldn't trust those Cuts in Westminster with a bail of hey.

Iwasfrozen

househero wrote: »

IMO they are a rete bunch of idiots for not voting for independence last time.

So many countries killed for freedom from the Brits. The Scots were given an easy way out but declined.

They were told oil was running out...
1 month after the referendum, oil production was increased by 40% ...did Shell & BP cut production before the vote to screw up the SNPs campaign?

I wouldn't trust those Cuts in Westminster with a bail of hey.

The Scots are Brits, I think we as Irish people tend to forget that and impose our own history onto the Scots.

alaimacerc

fryup wrote: »

just 9 months back they voted 55 - 45 % to stay in the UK

and now this i'm baffled

That's only a difference of 5%. So that's either a certain number of people who've changed their mind on the iRef question, or who're voting for a party that's further left than Labour on essentially every issue. Or a combination of the two.

eire4

fryup wrote: »

just 9 months back they voted 55 - 45 % to stay in the UK

and now this i'm baffled

Given the massive surge in the numbers of people joining the SNP after last Septembers referendum and given the stunning performance in winning 56 of 59 seats it would seem that a lot od Scots have changed their minds since the referendum.

eire4

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Parliament must grant authority for another referendum. So the PM ultimately.

We could see a constitutional crisis as eary as 2017 if Britain votes to leave the EU as the SNP have made clear they will not accept that for Scotland and if they follow up their stunning performance from yesterday by winning next years Scottish elections as well they will be in a very strong position. Even the Liberal leader Nick Clegg said that Scotland as sure as night follows day would leave if Britain leaves the EU.