PROPERTY CRASH (2016)

pauldavis123

Simple but interesting way to judge things?

Prices Up
http://www.daftdrop.com/houses?fromDate=20%2FMay%2F2011&toDate=27%2FApr%2F2016&aF=dublin%208&county=1&type=ALL&minB=1&maxB=12&iSP=true&sort=desc&sortBy=pcFF

Prices Down
http://www.daftdrop.com/houses?fromDate=20%2FMay%2F2011&toDate=27%2FApr%2F2016&aF=dublin%208&county=1&type=ALL&minB=1&maxB=12&iSP=true&sort=asc&sortBy=pcFF

Double the drops compared to rises!

euroboom13

zpehtsfd wrote: »

You couldn't give ANY property away in 2011 so why didn't you buy then? Oh right cause you wanted lower. Now you want a crash so you can have another chance.

https://themodernthesis.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/crying-1.jpg?w=450&h=300

:P

I did(and over the asking price) 2011 had cautious value

euroboom13

lucky john wrote: »

"but the most unstable part of what we have now is the reluctance of seller .very few sellers entering the market. Myhome /daft at a fraction of volume "

Euroboom you may be misreading why the sellers are reluctant even though you have the answer (i believe) in the line above.

If a seller sells where will they find a new house to live in? Nothing on Daft as you say. Rentals are as bad and cost the best part of a mortgage repayment. So a seller has to risk selling first and been left homeless or possibly commuting for hours. Not mush of a win for them there regardless of their debt.

The only way to fix many of the ills with property now is to BUILD MORE HOUSES. Hard to take after where we have just come from but absolutely true. And before some say it...fiddling with NAMA is not the answer. It could have been but not anymore.

On the build more houses. That has started already and is gaining pace.

I think we are in agreement that we are in a dysfunctional market.
(I just believe it needs to bottom out properly before it recovers.like it has in some rural areas)

a lot of red tape and ludicrous overheads/taxes need to be trimmed to have affordable value in new builds.(top heavy since boom)

Saipanne

Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

KomradeBishop

Deflation is here. Raising rates will only worsen this trap - we're in for long-term stagnation, unless something very big changes policy-wise.

Look to Japan and their Lost Two Decades - that's the new future for us.

The word people should get very familiar with for the coming future is: Deflation.
I'm very surprised how nobody seems even remotely aware of this yet...deflation in major economic regions, will drag down economies globally - there is a worldwide recession on the way in the coming years.

The only way out of this now, is a massive increase in government spending EU-wide - and there are no signs that this is on the way.

We can't say with any certainty what will happen to the property market - it is completely unlinked from the regular markets now, because it is an issue of constrained supply. Prices could easily continue to rise.

zpehtsfd

euroboom13 wrote: »

I did(and over the asking price) 2011 had cautious value

There were loads of decent properties that went well below the asking price in 2011. Please stop the nonsense talk.

So you own investment property and are calling for a crash?

euroboom13

zpehtsfd wrote: »

There were loads of decent properties that went well below the asking price in 2011. Please stop the nonsense talk.

So you own investment property and are calling for a crash?

Please stop your nonsense reading if it offends you!(must be a sore subject for you, sorry for your pain)

What I want is a sensible stable market, were investors can buy into bricks and mortar without hugh risk, caused by reckless lending and a dysfunctional market!

2011 was a good year for buyers but very little going below asking.(auctioneers where still low balling, even alsops were getting well over reserves, not like now!)

zpehtsfd

euroboom13 wrote: »

Please stop your nonsense reading if it offends you!(must be a sore subject for you, sorry for your pain)

Why would your posts offend me? It is laughable that a person who claims to be familiar with the property market also claims that decent property hasn't traded below the ask in 20 years. Add to that you are willing a crash as if it is the panacea for the dysfunctional property market. All this from a person who is currently invested in the market? Yeah right pull the other one.

Clearly your predictions the last few years have ended in contrary and as time goes on your posts are becoming more irate. The following statement from you speaks volumes about your mindset:

euroboom13 wrote:

I haven't met a seller of second hand property ,yapping about how he's" sitting on Hugh profits now"

Schadenfreude!!!!!

You and David McWilliams are a perfect pair.

euroboom13

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Why would your posts offend me? It is laughable that a person who claims to be familiar with the property market also claims that decent property hasn't traded below the ask in 20 years. Add to that you are willing a crash as if it is the panacea for the dysfunctional property market. All this from a person who is currently invested in the market? Yeah right pull the other one.

Clearly your predictions the last few years have ended in contrary and as time goes on your posts are becoming more irate. The following statement from you speaks volumes about your mindset:



Schadenfreude!!!!!

You and David McWilliams are a perfect pair.

its you that's irate ,and personal aggressive!

its you that doesn't understand the mentality of a long term holder and careful purchaser!(opposite of newbie buyers)

And I am sorry you think property has a habit in this country of selling below asking,as I said before ,its the one thing this country lacks!!

I know the property market is dysfunctional and needs debate.
You obviously think things are fine.so don't waste your time here.Goodluck

Ardennes1944

Hi all,

Im currently living in Switzerland but am looking at buying a house back in Cork to rent out.

I have about 50k in savings and would be looking to get something that will hopefully (is that possible) cover the mortgage.

Im 24 so this is everything I have saved so will need to do lots of research but would the general consensus be to wait another while or get in now while I can?

Thanks.

jive

Ardennes1944 wrote: »

Hi all,

Im currently living in Switzerland but am looking at buying a house back in Cork to rent out.

I have about 50k in savings and would be looking to get something that will hopefully (is that possible) cover the mortgage.

Im 24 so this is everything I have saved so will need to do lots of research but would the general consensus be to wait another while or get in now while I can?

Thanks.

If you want to live in cork and buy a home then do that, I assume Cork is where you want to settle. Just remember that it will make you slightly less flexible e.g. Job opportunity arises elsewhere in Ireland or abroad, you'll be less likely to want the hassle of finding somewhere to rent and also the hassle of being a landlord should you rent your 'home'.

As an investment then look to do something else with your money e.g. shares and bonds. Like I said if buying a home then go for it, for quality of life it'll be worth it and also nobody knows when a property bubble will arise and subsequently burst, no time like the present. If you have 50k in cash it's effectively being devalued just sitting there anyway (assuming inflation!)

Edit; just reread your post - to rent out, don't bother especially if you're living in Switzerland. Read about investing - I assume Switzerland is a fairly decent place tax wise to do it vs Ireland.

1st dalkey dalkey

The supply/demand issue is not just about house building. It is also about population growth. Growing populations need more housing but with zero population growth then zero building has no effect. Then look at shrinking populations, what will that do to values?

Japan was mentioned earlier in the thread. Their population growth started faltering in the 60's and turned negative in 2004, I think. With little immigration, their population is now falling. It is also aging rapidly. Older people usually have their houses already. They are asset rich, but cash poor. In a growing population, turning assets into cash is not a problem. In a shrinking one, things are very different. Japan is deflating at an enormous rate and all the political and economic tricks are failing to have any effect.

All western economies have a demographic problem to a greater or lesser degree. The wealthier and more comfortable we become, it appears the less willing we are to have children. But without them our societies have no future and our assets no value.

So, in short, I do not see a crash in the short term. But, without a change in the demographic outlook, I would not expect a house bought now to be worth the same amount in 40 years.

Ardennes1944

jive wrote: »

If you want to live in cork and buy a home then do that, I assume Cork is where you want to settle. Just remember that it will make you slightly less flexible e.g. Job opportunity arises elsewhere in Ireland or abroad, you'll be less likely to want the hassle of finding somewhere to rent and also the hassle of being a landlord should you rent your 'home'.

As an investment then look to do something else with your money e.g. shares and bonds. Like I said if buying a home then go for it, for quality of life it'll be worth it and also nobody knows when a property bubble will arise and subsequently burst, no time like the present. If you have 50k in cash it's effectively being devalued just sitting there anyway (assuming inflation!)

Edit; just reread your post - to rent out, don't bother especially if you're living in Switzerland. Read about investing - I assume Switzerland is a fairly decent place tax wise to do it vs Ireland.

Thanks for the reply. Yeah it wouldnt be for a home, my mother would be looking after affairs (they have 3 houses so shes used to it), so management etc isnt an issue.

irishguy1983

Ardennes1944 wrote: »

Thanks for the reply. Yeah it wouldnt be for a home, my mother would be looking after affairs (they have 3 houses so shes used to it), so management etc isnt an issue.

Well I'm no expert but prices are crazy at the moment in Cork soprobably not a good time to buy...

I'd say keep saving away in Switzerland

Ardennes1944

Thanks again, i probably need to look at investments here to see if I can get some sort of tax benefits etc.

jive

Ardennes1944 wrote: »

Thanks for the reply. Yeah it wouldnt be for a home, my mother would be looking after affairs (they have 3 houses so shes used to it), so management etc isnt an issue.

Handy option so. Personally, I'd go equity/bonds but that's not very Irish.

In fact it's probably a contributor to the messy housing situation we have because everyone buys additional properties as an investment.

audi12

jive wrote: »

Handy option so. Personally, I'd go equity/bonds but that's not very Irish.

In fact it's probably a contributor to the messy housing situation we have because everyone buys additional properties as an investment.

with lots of predications that brexit is going to be horrible what does this mean for property

NIMAN

As these things are cyclical, there will definitely be another property crash.

Question is just when?

daheff

NIMAN wrote: »

As these things are cyclical, there will definitely be another property crash.

Question is just when?

And how deep the crash is!