PROPERTY CRASH (2016)

trobbin

Roonbox wrote: »

They are under a lot of pressure to raise. I just think they will be forced back down pretty quickly when they do raise.
Either way its going to be interesting...

I don't see them been "forced back down" at all to be honest. There's always gonna be talk of further increases, but they've already made a stance that the first increase will remain. Low rates are beginning to have a negative affect on huge companies and massive industries in the States, already exports are being affected.

Unlike Ireland, America doesn't depend on a ridiculous housing economy, there's a bigger picture over there, and the average citizen doesn't overstretch themselves in order to buy a home. So you're not gonna have millions of people complaining about their overpriced house, when rates rise.

States looking to increase rates, weaken dollar. All led by massive hedge funds. They've pumped a very strong dollar all over EU, buying up everything (lots of property in Ireland included) once the dollar weakens and rates rise, hedge funds are set to sell up, making huge profits on exchange rate alone, then pumping deposits bank in the their hedge fund owned banks.

I wouldn't underestimate the affect this will have. These American hedge funds run that country (as they're made of all their biggest banks and billionaires) and this isn't gonna stop them, just because a very small percentage of citizens might have bitten off more than they can chew.

Similar will be said in Europe, when Germany, France, and UK need to increase. When rates in Europe begin to rise, banks will actually grow strongly. Recovering or suffering economies like Spain, Italy, Portugal will not be affected like Ireland, as their citizens, like Americans, aren't going mental and overstretching themselves for a mortgage. They prefer to buy cheap and have a decent lifestyle. Does that mean they live in poorer standard homes? Not one bit. Prices just don't inflate, because people's attitudes to them are different.

These are just some opinions I've formed, due to reading. I don't think it will be an overnight change. But if people think the worlds biggest hedge funds (whom fund the banks) are gonna be happy with no returns forever,are Very naïve.

Thanks for your opinions:)

Roonbox

trobbin wrote: »

Roonbox wrote: »

They are under a lot of pressure to raise. I just think they will be forced back down pretty quickly when they do raise.
Either way its going to be interesting...

I don't see them been "forced back down" at all to be honest. There's always gonna be talk of further increases, but they've already made a stance that the first increase will remain. Low rates are beginning to have a negative affect on huge companies and massive industries in the States, already exports are being affected.

Unlike Ireland, America doesn't depend on a ridiculous housing economy, there's a bigger picture over there, and the average citizen doesn't overstretch themselves in order to buy a home. So you're not gonna have millions of people complaining about their overpriced house, when rates rise.

States looking to increase rates, weaken dollar. All led by massive hedge funds. They've pumped a very strong dollar all over EU, buying up everything (lots of property in Ireland included) once the dollar weakens and rates rise, hedge funds are set to sell up, making huge profits on exchange rate alone, then pumping deposits bank in the their hedge fund owned banks.

I wouldn't underestimate the affect this will have. These American hedge funds run that country (as they're made of all their biggest banks and billionaires) and this isn't gonna stop them, just because a very small percentage of citizens might have bitten off more than they can chew.

Similar will be said in Europe, when Germany, France, and UK need to increase. When rates in Europe begin to rise, banks will actually grow strongly. Recovering or suffering economies like Spain, Italy, Portugal will not be affected like Ireland, as their citizens, like Americans, aren't going mental and overstretching themselves for a mortgage. They prefer to buy cheap and have a decent lifestyle. Does that mean they live in poorer standard homes? Not one bit. Prices just don't inflate, because people's attitudes to them are different.

These are just some opinions I've formed, due to reading. I don't think it will be an overnight change. But if people think the worlds biggest hedge funds (whom fund the banks) are gonna be happy with no returns forever,are Very na ve.

Thanks for your opinions:)

There is so much incorrect information in your post that I don t really have the time to pick it apart J


When the Fed raised rates back in Dec by a measly .25, for the first time in almost a decade, the U.S Stock market had its worst start to the year ever.
That s from an insignificant 0.25.
We are in an extraordinary period of extremely loose monitory policy and have been for an extended period. Central Banks increasingly desperate policies (NIRP for example) are losing their effectiveness, as demonstrated by the S&P effectively moving sideways since early 2015.

Increased rates are supposed to slow down lending and strengthen currencies. The reason the Fed are even entertaining the idea of raising is, and Merkel said it herself this week, is so that the FED will have some tools at its disposal in the future. It cannot reduce rates from zero. (although that s debateable since ECB and BOJ have done so, but that s been a disaster)

The Fed may raise once or twice this year. If the ECB raise even once, I will buy you a Pint J

trobbin

Roonbox wrote: »

There is so much incorrect information in your post that I don t really have the time to pick it apart J


When the Fed raised rates back in Dec by a measly .25, for the first time in almost a decade, the U.S Stock market had its worst start to the year ever.
That s from an insignificant 0.25.
We are in an extraordinary period of extremely loose monitory policy and have been for an extended period. Central Banks increasingly desperate policies (NIRP for example) are losing their effectiveness, as demonstrated by the S&P effectively moving sideways since early 2015.

Increased rates are supposed to slow down lending and strengthen currencies. The reason the Fed are even entertaining the idea of raising is, and Merkel said it herself this week, is so that the FED will have some tools at its disposal in the future. It cannot reduce rates from zero. (although that s debateable since ECB and BOJ have done so, but that s been a disaster)

The Fed may raise once or twice this year. If the ECB raise even once, I will buy you a Pint J

I'm not wrong, as it's my opinion. It's my own opinion so therefore it's valid, be it happen or not. Merkel and the likes can say what they want, I don't listen. I form my own opinions. Also I never said ECB will raise this year, in fact I think the opposite. But I'm certain it's not too far away. FED will continue to rise. Also, they (hedge funds pushing FED) don't give a damn about stock market fluctuations, it's all factored in, they make money either way.

But as I said, I respect your opinions on the subject. But to say my opinions aren't correct with such certainty of the future? Maybe you'll be a billionaire soon.

Roonbox

trobbin wrote: »

Roonbox wrote: »

There is so much incorrect information in your post that I don t really have the time to pick it apart J


When the Fed raised rates back in Dec by a measly .25, for the first time in almost a decade, the U.S Stock market had its worst start to the year ever.
That s from an insignificant 0.25.
We are in an extraordinary period of extremely loose monitory policy and have been for an extended period. Central Banks increasingly desperate policies (NIRP for example) are losing their effectiveness, as demonstrated by the S&P effectively moving sideways since early 2015.

Increased rates are supposed to slow down lending and strengthen currencies. The reason the Fed are even entertaining the idea of raising is, and Merkel said it herself this week, is so that the FED will have some tools at its disposal in the future. It cannot reduce rates from zero. (although that s debateable since ECB and BOJ have done so, but that s been a disaster)

The Fed may raise once or twice this year. If the ECB raise even once, I will buy you a Pint J

I'm not wrong, as it's my opinion. It's my own opinion so therefore it's valid, be it happen or not. Merkel and the likes can say what they want, I don't listen. I form my own opinions. Also I never said ECB will raise this year, in fact I think the opposite. But I'm certain it's not too far away. FED will continue to rise. Also, they (hedge funds pushing FED) don't give a damn about stock market fluctuations, it's all factored in, they make money either way.

But as I said, I respect your opinions on the subject. But to say my opinions aren't correct with such certainty of the future? Maybe you'll be a billionaire soon.

No offense intended trobbin.

The points in your post I was referring to were -
1 - recovering economies like Spain, Italy, Portugal those economies are not recovering, they are in a desperate state.
2 [font=Arial, sans-serif] [/font][font=Arial, sans-serif]America doesn't depend on a ridiculous housing economy[/font] Americans spend a ludicrous amount on housing
[font=Arial, sans-serif]3 Europe, when Germany, France, and UK need to increase[/font] - They don t need to increase
[font=Arial, sans-serif]4 States looking to increase rates, weaken dollar. All led by massive hedge funds[/font] This doesn t really make sense.

The Hedge Funds do care about Stock market fluctuations They are having a terrible year.

Markets are made up of different points of view so its all good.

For ever odd

"When the Fed raised rates back in Dec by a measly .25, for the first time in almost a decade, the U.S Stock market had its worst start to the year ever."
@ Roonbox
I reckon the bad start to the year had more to with China than the Fed raising by 0.25.
I Would be thinking along the same lines, regarding the other points.

trobbin

Roonbox wrote: »

No offense intended trobbin.

The points in your post I was referring to were -
1 - recovering economies like Spain, Italy, Portugal those economies are not recovering, they are in a desperate state.
2 [font=Arial, sans-serif] [/font][font=Arial, sans-serif]America doesn't depend on a ridiculous housing economy[/font] Americans spend a ludicrous amount on housing
[font=Arial, sans-serif]3 Europe, when Germany, France, and UK need to increase[/font] - They don t need to increase
[font=Arial, sans-serif]4 States looking to increase rates, weaken dollar. All led by massive hedge funds[/font] This doesn t really make sense.

The Hedge Funds do care about Stock market fluctuations They are having a terrible year.

Markets are made up of different points of view so its all good.

Whats with all the capital letters, and your in distressing tone, caused by having a different opinion than you.

You might say economies aren't recovering. But you're living in a boom, when comparing. Those countries I mentioned have had an overall progression of late.

Yea of course Americans spend lots on houses, but it's the people who can afford it. They don't have the same housing issues as we do. Read the point I made again. House prices doesn't dictate their economy, in contrast, it does in Ireland.

Germany will need a rate increase to stop their massive inflation, they'll be supported by their allies. This is further down the line. I understand you think free money is here to stay forever, but I'm not that naive.

The point I made about hedge funds that you quoted and said "it doesn't make sense" that's ok. But you are not alone in thinking that way, see, it wouldn't make sense to you because you don't understand the strategy they've implemented. It's not something broadcasted.

Roonbox

trobbin wrote: »

Roonbox wrote: »

No offense intended trobbin.

The points in your post I was referring to were -
1 - recovering economies like Spain, Italy, Portugal those economies are not recovering, they are in a desperate state.
2 [font=Arial, sans-serif]America doesn't depend on a ridiculous housing economy[/font] Americans spend a ludicrous amount on housing
[font=Arial, sans-serif]3 Europe, when Germany, France, and UK need to increase[/font] - They don t need to increase
[font=Arial, sans-serif]4 States looking to increase rates, weaken dollar. All led by massive hedge funds[/font] This doesn t really make sense.

The Hedge Funds do care about Stock market fluctuations They are having a terrible year.

Markets are made up of different points of view so its all good.

Whats with all the capital letters, and your in distressing tone, caused by having a different opinion than you.

You might say economies aren't recovering. But you're living in a boom, when comparing. Those countries I mentioned have had an overall progression of late.

Yea of course Americans spend lots on houses, but it's the people who can afford it. They don't have the same housing issues as we do. Read the point I made again. House prices doesn't dictate their economy, in contrast, it does in Ireland.

Germany will need a rate increase to stop their massive inflation, they'll be supported by their allies. This is further down the line. I understand you think free money is here to stay forever, but I'm not that naive.

The point I made about hedge funds that you quoted and said "it doesn't make sense" that's ok. But you are not alone in thinking that way, see, it wouldn't make sense to you because you don't understand the strategy they've implemented. It's not something broadcasted.

I'd love to know how you know what i understand trobben ?

You make interesting points, I don't really agree with them but that's what makes markets like I said earlier. I don't really want to keep going back and forth.

On another note - US May jobs report came out today and was very poor. March and April revised down also.

Grecco

Wheres this famous property crash? As I predicted the lack of supply is pushing up the house price higher. And the shackles that the government and banks have put on the construction industry is only going to see the house prices push even higher.
Property crash my ass, fooking numpty you could have been sitting happy on huge profits now

lucky john

It's interesting to read back the original posts from this thread. The fact that despite the CB throwing a massive spanner in the works of property prices they have continued to rise. The pace of growth could even quicken for the next year.

I do think that supply will be addressed from now but we are still well behind demand . In the last couple of months there has been a sudden opening up of moth balled sites, especially in the counties bordering Dublin. The developers are now able to make a profit from those sites so that means prices are up and rising. The developers have also got smarter. they are building is small stages, selling and building again. They are staggering the supply so as not to affect the supply side. I can't see anything less that plus 5% for the next 12 months (admittedly with the possibility of a brexit been an unknown quantity)

For ever odd

It is real pedal to the metal stuff at the moment, there is a supply/demand issue with labour, both skilled and unskilled.
It is widely accepted within the industry, that cartels are keeping prices to a minimum(wages included) and therefore profits to a maximum. Fair enough, that,s business you say - but at what cost?

Since the last crash, Irish construction workers either emigrated or packed it in and sought alternative lines of work, those that did stick with it, are mostly supervisors, overseeing foreign labour, leaving a big void in quality tradesmen. This of course is brining the loop back - which was one of the causes of the last crash.... import labour (recruitment drives ongoing in eastern Europe. They need somewhere to stay, hence driving up rent prices, and the illusion of great demand)

So for all of you guys cheering on this mini boom (and it probably will gather momentum), i say to you...you are contributing to the export of Irish people and the import of exploited non-nationals.

I weep for Irish society.

euroboom13

Grecco wrote: »

Wheres this famous property crash? As I predicted the lack of supply is pushing up the house price higher. And the shackles that the government and banks have put on the construction industry is only going to see the house prices push even higher.
Property crash my ass, fooking numpty you could have been sitting happy on huge profits now

I haven't met a seller of second hand property ,yapping about how he's" sitting on Hugh profits now"......(no Hugh numbers there, and that's why there is a severe lack of sellers)

Some small developments of, sparkly sparkly jazzed up rubbish, making silly money but villages are soon going to run out of idiots ....

Property crash is on its way.

(and no inflated rental market will prop it up)I don't know of any long term landlords increasing the portfolios, in fact the opposite is true.GLA

Villa05

lucky john wrote:

I do think that supply will be addressed from now but we are still well behind demand . In the last couple of months there has been a sudden opening up of moth balled sites, especially in the counties bordering Dublin. The developers are now able to make a profit from those sites so that means prices are up and rising.

Ah yes rig the market, Get prices back up to the boom time levels that broke the country. What could possibly go wrong?

lucky john

Villa05 wrote: »

Ah yes rig the market, Get prices back up to the boom time levels that broke the country. What could possibly go wrong?

The thread is PROPERTY CRASH 2016. Euroboom gave his reasons why he believed there would be I. others agreed. Some, including myself disagreed. So over a year later and with no sign of a crash in sight Euroboom has been proved totally wrong.

the post from me you quoted is my view on where we are now and what I see happening on the ground. I dont see a market been rigged. I just see a sector adjusting to a new way of doing things. There is no sign of boom time prices been paid but prices have found a bottom and are rising slowly.

Euroboom reckons a crash is still about to happen. As things stand today I just see no reason to believe that. In the next 12 months from what I see property prices will continue to rise. If I'm wrong feel free to come back to this post is 12 months and tell me so.

trobbin

lucky john wrote: »

The thread is PROPERTY CRASH 2016. Euroboom gave his reasons why he believed there would be I. others agreed. Some, including myself disagreed. So over a year later and with no sign of a crash in sight Euroboom has been proved totally wrong.

the post from me you quoted is my view on where we are now and what I see happening on the ground. I dont see a market been rigged. I just see a sector adjusting to a new way of doing things. There is no sign of boom time prices been paid but prices have found a bottom and are rising slowly.

Euroboom reckons a crash is still about to happen. As things stand today I just see no reason to believe that. In the next 12 months from what I see property prices will continue to rise. If I'm wrong feel free to come back to this post is 12 months and tell me so.

I actually think both views are very relevant. I made my thoughts clear, which I understand are different to almost everyone, but I'm not looking at Ireland and it's houses, I'm looking at everything I can to help form my opinion.

I do agree with many of the OP's points, I just think it's very hard to predict a specific time.

Remember this, there's been nothing but negativity around property; rising rates, (even though ECB is lowest ever) rising utility costs, (bins, gas, electric) property tax, water charges, CG tax, CB rules. I'm sure there's more, anyway all this things should've pushed property down. Right?

Prices have been rising due to manipulation in the market from banks and NAMA, to protect their interests. Residential housing only being proped up ATM out of desperation and greed. So while you might be correct about prices in the next twelve months, doesn't make it right. I certainly wouldn't be going anywhere near houses (mainly Dublin) in this market.

And also, if people think we're finished with austerity in this country, they've a few shocks coming. We owe an awful lot to the devil, and he'll have us dancing to his tune.

yqtwqxqm

lucky john wrote: »

The thread is PROPERTY CRASH 2016. Euroboom gave his reasons why he believed there would be I. others agreed. Some, including myself disagreed. So over a year later and with no sign of a crash in sight Euroboom has been proved totally wrong.

the post from me you quoted is my view on where we are now and what I see happening on the ground. I dont see a market been rigged. I just see a sector adjusting to a new way of doing things. There is no sign of boom time prices been paid but prices have found a bottom and are rising slowly.

Euroboom reckons a crash is still about to happen. As things stand today I just see no reason to believe that. In the next 12 months from what I see property prices will continue to rise. If I'm wrong feel free to come back to this post is 12 months and tell me so.

He is on to 2017 now probably.
Just like 2012s "Glut of repos will cause rents to plummet thread". I think the people posting in that thread still havent given up but they have left that thread behind as such a sore reminder to how you cannot predict the property market.

I always look around at people predicting the future and wonder why they arent driving Bentleys if they are so good at the predictions.

ixus

The government certainly achieved their aim of boosting property prices.

Buy and hold for 7yrs and an investor pays no CGT. Or, hold onto the cash on deposit with low rates and high DIRT. You see where the incentives are.

Then, for the international investor, there's the ICAV' s where they pay no tax on profits. There has bee a huge drive globally by funds to buy apartment blocks and other properties in search for yield. It is not just Ireland, probably the single biggest factor in the US. Personally, I know someone who sold a high end property for cash to a Chinese man. They only viewed it once.

I do believe property is over valued relative to affordability for the intended residents. However, a crash only comes about if there is a global market crash or recession. We are a "small open economy" and still ultra dependent on what happens outside.

People seem to think that a crash is not a possibility. I would ask, why are so mamy central banks engaging in emergency measures if markets are stable?

yqtwqxqm

ixus wrote: »

The government certainly achieved their aim of boosting property prices.

Buy and hold for 7yrs and an investor pays no CGT. Or, hold onto the cash on deposit with low rates and high DIRT. You see where the incentives are.

Then, for the international investor, there's the ICAV' s where they pay no tax on profits. There has bee a huge drive globally by funds to buy apartment blocks and other properties in search for yield. It is not just Ireland, probably the single biggest factor in the US. Personally, I know someone who sold a high end property for cash to a Chinese man. They only viewed it once.

I do believe property is over valued relative to affordability for the intended residents. However, a crash only comes about if there is a global market crash or recession. We are a "small open economy" and still ultra dependent on what happens outside.

People seem to think that a crash is not a possibility. I would ask, why are so mamy central banks engaging in emergency measures if markets are stable?

Oh there will be another crash. That is certain.
Its people claiming to be able to predict it that i have issue with.
Even economists havent a clue. Some get the stopped clock right now and again, but if they really were that good, they would be giving us the advice from their super yacht.

Roonbox

yqtwqxqm wrote: »

ixus wrote: »

The government certainly achieved their aim of boosting property prices.

Buy and hold for 7yrs and an investor pays no CGT. Or, hold onto the cash on deposit with low rates and high DIRT. You see where the incentives are.

Then, for the international investor, there's the ICAV' s where they pay no tax on profits. There has bee a huge drive globally by funds to buy apartment blocks and other properties in search for yield. It is not just Ireland, probably the single biggest factor in the US. Personally, I know someone who sold a high end property for cash to a Chinese man. They only viewed it once.

I do believe property is over valued relative to affordability for the intended residents. However, a crash only comes about if there is a global market crash or recession. We are a "small open economy" and still ultra dependent on what happens outside.

People seem to think that a crash is not a possibility. I would ask, why are so mamy central banks engaging in emergency measures if markets are stable?

Oh there will be another crash. That is certain.
Its people claiming to be able to predict it that i have issue with.
Even economists havent a clue. Some get the stopped clock right now and again, but if they really were that good, they would be giving us the advice from their super yacht.

You are correct, nobody can predict the future.
The turning point will be when all the cheap money dries up. Almost zero central bank interest rates will come to an end at some point.

lucky john

trobbin wrote: »

I actually think both views are very relevant. I made my thoughts clear, which I understand are different to almost everyone, but I'm not looking at Ireland and it's houses, I'm looking at everything I can to help form my opinion.

I do agree with many of the OP's points, I just think it's very hard to predict a specific time.

Remember this, there's been nothing but negativity around property; rising rates, (even though ECB is lowest ever) rising utility costs, (bins, gas, electric) property tax, water charges, CG tax, CB rules. I'm sure there's more, anyway all this things should've pushed property down. Right?

Prices have been rising due to manipulation in the market from banks and NAMA, to protect their interests. Residential housing only being proped up ATM out of desperation and greed. So while you might be correct about prices in the next twelve months, doesn't make it right. I certainly wouldn't be going anywhere near houses (mainly Dublin) in this market.

And also, if people think we're finished with austerity in this country, they've a few shocks coming. We owe an awful lot to the devil, and he'll have us dancing to his tune.

Despite looking far and wide to form your opinion you have not mentioned one of the biggest drivers of house prices. Supply and demand.

In the boom years Ireland built up to 90,000 houses annually. that over hang is now either cleared or in the wrong place. In the last 4 years completions have averaged less than 10,000. At the same time rents have rocketed to a point that would equal a mortgage repayment.

Now here are interesting figures..

A total of 2,307 mortgages were approved per month, on average, in the three months ending April 2016 – some 1,294 (56.1%) were for first-time buyers while mover purchasers accounted for 623 (27.0%).
The number of mortgages approved fell by 1.9% year-on-year and increased by 18.7% month-on-month.

Remember, these numbers are for approvals post CB rules. they already have the money to buy. Here is another important number..

The value of mortgage approvals rose by 2% year-on-year and by 19.7% month-on-month.

So even if you assume that movers find properties already in the system you can see that demand for new houses will outstrip supply in the short term. With demand growing almost 20% month on month I just can't see any chance of a property crash soon. When building and demand is back in balance then who knows what will happen. It won't be 2017 though.

pablo128

lucky john wrote: »

Despite looking far and wide to form your opinion you have not mentioned one of the biggest drivers of house prices. Supply and demand.

It's pretty hard to maintain supply when Nama are flogging large portfolios of property at knockdown prices to overseas investors. They didn't give the general public an opportunity to purchase these homes.

lucky john

yqtwqxqm wrote: »

Oh there will be another crash. That is certain.
Its people claiming to be able to predict it that i have issue with.

You should read these two short sentences carefully.

kupus

I made a prediction a while back about the tech industry. It's failing. A couple a weeks ago I saw an article in passing about house prices falling in silicone valley. Coupled with hedge fund big players not parting with the cash like they were doing says to me a bubble is about to burst......
When America sneezes Ireland catches a cold. Just depends on how big that sneeze is. Couple that with Saudi Arabia in a proxy price war with Russia for oil. Islam fundamentalists running riot around the world. Something has to give.

trobbin

lucky john wrote: »

Despite looking far and wide to form your opinion you have not mentioned one of the biggest drivers of house prices. Supply and demand.

In the boom years Ireland built up to 90,000 houses annually. that over hang is now either cleared or in the wrong place. In the last 4 years completions have averaged less than 10,000. At the same time rents have rocketed to a point that would equal a mortgage repayment.

Now here are interesting figures..

A total of 2,307 mortgages were approved per month, on average, in the three months ending April 2016 – some 1,294 (56.1%) were for first-time buyers while mover purchasers accounted for 623 (27.0%).
The number of mortgages approved fell by 1.9% year-on-year and increased by 18.7% month-on-month.

Remember, these numbers are for approvals post CB rules. they already have the money to buy. Here is another important number..

The value of mortgage approvals rose by 2% year-on-year and by 19.7% month-on-month.

So even if you assume that movers find properties already in the system you can see that demand for new houses will outstrip supply in the short term. With demand growing almost 20% month on month I just can't see any chance of a property crash soon. When building and demand is back in balance then who knows what will happen. It won't be 2017 though.

I did mention it. It's what I meant when I said "prices being manipulated by banks and NAMA".

See they've held back supply for years. Banks wouldn't fund any builders, plus would rather see a house being rented out cash in hand, from buy to let LL's instead of large scale repossessions, which would've also driven prices down. What about NAMA? What about all the apartment blocks that were completed, held on to by them, and sold to hedge funds at rock bottom prices. Many in Dublin only costing €30k per unit in 2011. Why wasn't that offered to the general public?

Yes there's a supply issue, but it's not the only issue.

euroboom13

Property crash 2016...

Little unfair to say I have been proven wrong when the year is barely 50% complete(luckyjohn).

Property price are not stable, rents are far from stable(unless we are calling boomtime stable)

Watch the second hand market ,sellers are not happy and if they were ,we would have a hell of a lot more property on the market. All that is keeping the supply down is sellers hoping to offload their houses without having to admit a bad purchase, but that will change if they admit defeat.

People are reluctant to offload their unwanted property at a loss .Which is crippling the market.
They won't be able to hold forever, but low rates and high rents is making them hold rather than fold...

When rents are tackled and rates increase ,supply will not be an issue.
Buyers market then.
Houses will sell for below asking prices for the first time in 20yrs
(function like a proper market place, like every other market we except!! and we have put up with this dysfunctional market for far too long, its an embarrassment )GLA

euroboom13

FOR SALE

In this country means

PRIVATE AUCTION, place your bids

Its insane(I pointed this out to a young auctioneer and he couldnt grasp the ludicrousness of this type of selling, in gentleman days if you had 2 prospective buyers you were obliged to put it to public auction)

Insane market... only for feckless buyers/ fraudulent auctioneering practices

newacc2015

euroboom13 wrote: »

Property crash 2016...

Little unfair to say I have been proven wrong when the year is barely 50% complete(luckyjohn).

Property price are not stable, rents are far from stable(unless we are calling boomtime stable)

Watch the second hand market ,sellers are not happy and if they were ,we would have a hell of a lot more property on the market. All that is keeping the supply down is sellers hoping to offload their houses without having to admit a bad purchase, but that will change if they admit defeat.

People are reluctant to offload their unwanted property at a loss .Which is crippling the market.
They won't be able to hold forever, but low rates and high rents is making them hold rather than fold...

When rents are tackled and rates increase ,supply will not be an issue.
Buyers market then.
Houses will sell for below asking prices for the first time in 20yrs
(function like a proper market place, like every other market we except!! and we have put up with this dysfunctional market for far too long, its an embarrassment )GLA

How are prices unstable? The sale of houses is based on cash and not credit. If anything with interest rates, people will start pouring money into property ie the crash will not come.

How are rents unstable? I would love to know in what city with high wages in Europe where you will find a cheap apartment. You can't have low rents and high wages. Look at Munich, where rent is expensive but so are wages. Berlin has cheap rents and a horrific job market

People dont want to admit a bad purchase? What a load of BS. An asset is an asset if you no longer want it or need the cash you will see it regardless of what others think

How/when will rents be tackled? Dont expect it this side of 2020. Houses selling below asking has been unheard of for 20 years? What about 2008-2014?

euroboom13

newacc2015 wrote: »

How are prices unstable? The sale of houses is based on cash and not credit. If anything with interest rates, people will start pouring money into property ie the crash will not come.

How are rents unstable? I would love to know in what city with high wages in Europe where you will find a cheap apartment. You can't have low rents and high wages. Look at Munich, where rent is expensive but so are wages. Berlin has cheap rents and a horrific job market

People dont want to admit a bad purchase? What a load of BS. An asset is an asset if you no longer want it or need the cash you will see it regardless of what others think

How/when will rents be tackled? Dont expect it this side of 2020. Houses selling below asking has been unheard of for 20 years? What about 2008-2014?

1)house prices in Dublin eg; 450k in 2008/200k in 2011 to 300k in 2016....but the most unstable part of what we have now is the reluctance of seller .very few sellers entering the market. Myhome /daft at a fraction of volume

2)rents have gone up 50% in 2yrs in a large amount of areas(no one could call this a stable increase) as decent landlord I haven't got the heart to do that to families

3) as an investor ,I know first hand ,that NOBODY likes to cash a paper loss, and most people whom bought in the 00'ies are holding losses...as borrowing cost are at the cheapest in history... Reluctant Sellers....

you are right if the need the cash they will sell, which is exactly what I am getting at with stability ,policy changes could create fear over night.

4)I have never seen more interest in the rental problems of this country ,so like most people I would like to see a solution....(blaming landlords is making the problem worse,so is increasing rent supplement, prtb aint helping either)

STABLE for me means a fluid market with small fluctuations .(none evident!)

I am always in the market for property and I have seen nothing ,of interest going, below asking price in 20yrs...
auctioneers are low balling and then pushing them up! frustrating but true(few exceptions)GLA

zpehtsfd

You couldn't give ANY property away in 2011 so why didn't you buy then? Oh right cause you wanted lower. Now you want a crash so you can have another chance.

https://themodernthesis.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/crying-1.jpg?w=450&h=300

:P

newacc2015

euroboom13 wrote: »

1)house prices in Dublin eg; 450k in 2008/200k in 2011 to 300k in 2016....but the most unstable part of what we have now is the reluctance of seller .very few sellers entering the market. Myhome /daft at a fraction of volume

2)rents have gone up 50% in 2yrs in a large amount of areas(no one could call this a stable increase) as decent landlord I haven't got the heart to do that to families

3) as an investor ,I know first hand ,that NOBODY likes to cash a paper loss, and most people whom bought in the 00'ies are holding losses...as borrowing cost are at the cheapest in history... Reluctant Sellers....

you are right if the need the cash they will sell, which is exactly what I am getting at with stability ,policy changes could create fear over night.

4)I have never seen more interest in the rental problems of this country ,so like most people I would like to see a solution....(blaming landlords is making the problem worse,so is increasing rent supplement, prtb aint helping either)

STABLE for me means a fluid market with small fluctuations .(none evident!)

I am always in the market for property and I have seen nothing ,of interest going, below asking price in 20yrs...
auctioneers are low balling and then pushing them up! frustrating but true(few exceptions)GLA

How exactly is the price of a house during an economic depression relevant to 2016? The price of housing in 2011 was artificial low. If investors didnt think some stocks were undervalued relative to their fundamental value, we wouldn't have active investing

Where is that source for that figure? Good thing you aren't a landlord then, as I can't think of another industry were increasing price due an increased in demand is sign as greedy.

People cut losses and move on. There would be very major hedge funds if they were holding onto bad assets in hope 20/30 years they will rise in value.

How is there fluctuations in the market? Prices are just going up. That is stable

Maybe you are from some small town in the West? But in Dublin 2010-2014 there was a ton of houses selling for below asking. Why would an estate agent on 1% commission spend weeks driving up a prices for a few extra euro? If an estate agent sells a property for around 10-15% more than asking they have to go to the PRSA and justify it

lucky john

"but the most unstable part of what we have now is the reluctance of seller .very few sellers entering the market. Myhome /daft at a fraction of volume "

Euroboom you may be misreading why the sellers are reluctant even though you have the answer (i believe) in the line above.

If a seller sells where will they find a new house to live in? Nothing on Daft as you say. Rentals are as bad and cost the best part of a mortgage repayment. So a seller has to risk selling first and been left homeless or possibly commuting for hours. Not mush of a win for them there regardless of their debt.

The only way to fix many of the ills with property now is to BUILD MORE HOUSES. Hard to take after where we have just come from but absolutely true. And before some say it...fiddling with NAMA is not the answer. It could have been but not anymore.

On the build more houses. That has started already and is gaining pace.