Are Fianna Fail FFinished?

Streetwalker

FF are a criminal organisation. I don't support criminals.

Uncle Ben

No worse than FG from where I'm standing.

RandomName2

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I'd disagree. They have acknowledged their role in the crash and admitted that mistakes were made.

Have they?

RobertKK

FF need to get rid of Micheal Martin, who has done his best to make sure the party lost its identity.
They use to be socially conservative, now the same as the rest, they need to talk about how the bailout program they signed upto was right for the country and how the current government implemented most of what they had agreed to, given the economy is getting better.

FF's biggest problem though is Micheal Martin.

sdanseo

jetsonx wrote: »

The tipping point has been reached lads...FF are going into a tail-spin...

Is it surprising? No, here's why:

1) Ever since their artificially inflated bubble-burst they are completely deluded that they had anything to do with the crash.

2) As a result, in their FF deluded mode failed to even do a superficial reform of their party. They decided to continue on as if nothing had ever happened.

3) Their time in opposition has been pathetic. For the last number of the years their flash-suited politicians would jump on any bandwagon possible for some cheap votes. If there was a problem with bunny rabbits invading the country. FF politicians would be there at the Bunny Rabbit Control Association doing a photo-shoot and dispensing trite soundbites about some stupid "five point plan" to control the bunnies.

4) They have NO ideas of their own. Bandwagon jumping is all they are good for.

5) Since the crash, nobody really knows exactly what the FF political ideology is. But, deep inside most people know that FF politicians are just in it for the money.

To use their beloved phrase, going forward, FF are f@cked...

Much as I dislike some of the fairly monumental cock-ups the FF made, not to mention the decades of corruption (and we still don't know the truthful extent of how widespread it was) I don't agree that they lack an ideology of their own, actually reading a lot of their policy, I agree with much of it.

Essentially you sound like you're on more of a rampage than anything else.

Streetwalker wrote: »

FF are a criminal organisation. I don't support criminals.

Careful now, the tar is dripping off your brush.

As for SF, the problem with them in any sort of position of power is that they're a populist movement with no real idea what they're doing.

Dannyboy83

hfallada wrote: »

here all parties are fairly social conservative and will alienate young voters, who want to live in a liberal 21st Century European country and not something on par with 1950s Southern State in the US regarding abortion, divorce, LGBT rights. Anything that is mildly controversial is ignored by the Government and any other party. This wont cut it with young voters. How many women here are pissed with ****ty abortion rights? How many high income earners are annoyed with huge taxes? There is tons, but no party to cater for them. If FF is that party, they will do well in election.

I think it was Churchill who said (heavily paraphrasing), if they'd missed their chance to implement the welfare state, it would be hard to see another opportunity arising for some time, but once it was done, it was immutable.

Abortion, Gay marriage and associated wedge issues are expected to progress with the passage of time.
Conversely, it seems the welfare state is stronger than ever.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0728/633463-esri/
According to the ESRI, the policy of protecting those who are dependent on the social welfare system has contributed to an outcome where inequality in the distribution of income has actually fallen over the last five years.

Ireland, it says, differed from other EU countries where the gap between the richest and poorest increased significantly as a result of the crisis.

Economist John Fitzgerald said that the average income has fallen by 8% from the peak to today, while the welfare bill has risen from 13% of income before the crisis to 20% now.

So basically Ireland jacked up tax rates on middle income earners to maintain social welfare, and unlike the rest of the EU, income inequality actually decreased here despite a much more severe economic catastrophe, compared to other EU countries.

Many of us have been hoping for the scenario you outlined in your post, it has certainly been discussed on this forum as far back as I can remember, and while I don't know the specific reason why no party has emerged from the vacuum to fill what is a fairly standard role in most other democracies, I'm wondering whether it has become an immutable part of the Irish political DNA?
Presumably if a government cannot introduce welfare changes during a collapse, there is no hope for such changes during a revival?
.
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I've commented on this elsewhere before, but in Poland when many of the young people began emigrating after EU accession, the younger people who tended to be liberal & were required to balance out the system had emigrated, which meant the social conservatives were unusually strong and Kaczynski came to power with the Law & Justice party, and protectionist policies and anti-gay policies etc..

In the past in Ireland, it was primarily the unemployed and under-qualified who used to emigrate. Now it seems to be highly qualified people and 'apparently' those already in employment.
Does the perpetual emigration of this section of society mean Ireland will never achieve the critical mass required to establish a more typical left/right divide as you outlined in your post?

For Reals

RobertKK wrote: »

FF need to get rid of Micheal Martin, who has done his best to make sure the party lost its identity.
They use to be socially conservative, now the same as the rest, they need to talk about how the bailout program they signed upto was right for the country and how the current government implemented most of what they had agreed to, given the economy is getting better.

FF's biggest problem though is Micheal Martin.

Ireland's biggest problem is people who believe any of the above.

RobertKK

For Reals wrote: »

Ireland's biggest problem is people who believe any of the above.

No it is not. It is people who say something is a problem and then don't explain why they are right and the other person is wrong.

Sierra Oscar

Quin_Dub wrote: »

SF at around 20%/21% and FF a bit behind around the 17%/18% in opinion polls would see FF hold on to all of their current seats (and maybe squeak another seat in Dublin) and finish with more seats than SF based on better transfers and better geographic coverage.

If FF were to get the exact same first preference votes as they got in 2011 the party would still return with around 30 seats.

There were a lot of marginal seats lost the last time around due to two candidates, or more, being on the ticket. That was necessary because there were so many incumbent TD's. The party will be running much tighter tickets this time around judging by the selection conventions it has held so far. There is also the transfer factor. The by-elections held so far have shown that FF is becoming more transfer friendly over time.

I can see FF coming back with around 40 seats or there about. At the moment I would say it will be a FG / Lab / Ind Government.

Slutmonkey57b

The last election should have been both a wake up call for the existing parties and for the electorate too, given the rise of the independents and the obliteration of FF in Dublin.

However the people voted in with a clear mandate to clean up the mess immediately stuck two fingers up at the electorate and proceeded to do nothing whatsoever apart from slide around in exactly the same cronyish corrupt swamp of money, privilige and power that FF did. Bondholders didn't get burned, bankers didn't get jailed and secrets weren't told.

While it would be nice to see FF to get totally obliterated at the next election, unfortunately there are still too many hidebound country "I'm a FF man" voters who will never change, and the electorate in Dublin have been shown that getting rid of FF changes nothing because the other main parties are exactly the same.

Now they must decide whether to obliterate Labour, FF or FG at the next election because all three deserve it. SF has a strong core of voters but will they pick up more votes when real power is being decided? The political classes are bricking it at the prospect, and for that reason I'm inclined to vote for them...

Seth Brundle

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I'd disagree. They have acknowledged their role in the crash and admitted that mistakes were made.

Your post isn't reasoned, but looks like that of a person who wants FF to die, rather than outlining a convincing case that they are on their death bed.

A mealy mouthed apology doesn't count.

Look who is still there from the old guard...

• Micheal Martin
• Willie O'Dea
• Mary Hanafin
• Éamon Ó Cuiv
• Brendan Smith
• John McGuinness
• Michael Kitt
• ...

As they say, a leopard doesn't change it's sopts!

NIMAN wrote: »

To the original question, simple answer, I hope so.

Seconded!

jetsonx

For Reals wrote: »

to be honest I don't rate FF as a political party, more of a self serving group, in politics by happenstance as it's were the money is.

Excellent point...I am just trying to think about the last time I heard an FF politician genuinely talk passionately about something which was rooted out of a core set of values.

Every time I see them...I just see a bunch of used car salesmen.

mayogirlie1

I don't believe that the Fianna F party are "finished" Yes of course mistakes were made during their previous time in government however they have accepted their wrongdoings.

Also it is my firm contention that Sinn Fein economic policies are simply absurd and may I go so far to say - farcical. Their policies have no substance except maybe to tax the rich and scrap water charges???

I am seventeen years old and my family have no affiliation with any political party however I have a strong interest in political matters and if there was a general election in the morning(and if I was 18) FiannaF would be my first preference . As they would be with many of my peers

Seth Brundle

mayogirlie1 wrote: »

I don't believe that the Fianna F party are "finished" Yes of course mistakes were made during their previous time in government however they have accepted their wrongdoings.

Also it is my firm contention that Sinn Fein economic policies are simply absurd and may I go so far to say - farcical. Their policies have no substance except maybe to tax the rich and scrap water charges???

I am seventeen years old and my family have no affiliation with any political party however I have a strong interest in political matters and if there was a general election in the morning(and if I was 18) FiannaF would be my first preference . As they would be with many of my peers

Which of their policies interests you most?

joe912

For Reals wrote: »

Why? This is the problem with Irish politics, it's teams and families not social or political beliefs based on the good of the nation.
Why re-invent a generationally corrupt party? A historically selfish party, (DeValera, Haughey, Ahern)?
I don't understand the need to 'fix' this institution, if these youth are at all looking to better the country, start a party based on values not family ties and a skewed version of patriotism.
They'll **** us again.

Fool me several times, shame on....?

As much as F.F was corrupt F.G were cowardly (fitzgerald, bruton, Kenny)?

joe912

F.F lost some of its core vote to F.G. some small bit of this they may recover. Mainly due to F.G's arrogance. F.G will retain their core vote and a small bit more. The party who will be in real trouble after the next election is labour. Presuming that S.F will scoop up some of the ex F.F and Lab vote, they will most likely lead the opposition. The best outcome for sinn fein would be to be in opposition to a F.G F.F coalition.

NIMAN

Does anyone really think SF would like to be in power?

Sometimes I wonder, as being in opposition is easy. All you have to do is slag off the current Gov and claim you wouldn't make mistakes if you were in power.

But SF in power would of course have to make the real decisions that all political parties have to make, the painful ones that turn voters against you. Or are SF voters so blinkered in their love of the party that they could see no wrong?

ezra_pound

joe912 wrote: »

As much as F.F was corrupt F.G were cowardly (fitzgerald, bruton, Kenny)?

Can you please justify this statement ?

Dob74

Permabear wrote:

This post had been deleted.

FF got 17% in 2011 GE. They will be in coalition with Fg after the next election. Then they are finished.

Eric Cartman

BlutendeRabe wrote: »

Where do you see FF gaining btw?

on actual polling day when the keyboard warrior unemployed and under 30 die hard shiners aren't bothered going to a polling booth.

sdanseo

Eric Cartman wrote: »

on actual polling day when the keyboard warrior unemployed and under 30 die hard shiners aren't bothered going to a polling booth.

I always find it amusing that the scroungers with nothing else to do all day are the ones who don't bother going and voting. Are they just lazy or is it that they simply have a sense of entitlement to free moolah that our welfare state has bred into them over generations of handouts?

Seth Brundle

sdanseo wrote: »

I always find it amusing that the scroungers with nothing else to do all day are the ones who don't bother going and voting. Are they just lazy or is it that they simply have a sense of entitlement to free moolah that our welfare state has bred into them over generations of handouts?

Without trying to classify them all together, traditionally certain disadvantaged areas had very low turnouts due to the belief that regardless of who go into power, their lot wasn't going to change as politicians didn't care about them.
As they didn't vote, the politicians may not have made much visible effort within these areas thereby fulfilling the circle.

sdanseo

kbannon wrote: »

Without trying to classify them all together, traditionally certain disadvantaged areas had very low turnouts due to the belief that regardless of who go into power, their lot wasn't going to change as politicians didn't care about them.
As they didn't vote, the politicians may not have made much visible effort within these areas thereby fulfilling the circle.

Makes perfect sense. I should qualify my statement to say that I didn't mean to imply that I group people together like that either - I have no objection to welfare where it's needed and called for. I have a problem with people who take it and then complain about politicians, but don't bother to vote.

I genuinely believe anyone who doesn't vote - regardless of where they're from - should forfeit the right to protest about government controlled issues. If you want to vote for no-one, spoil the vote and they count those too.

MouseTail

It is also intergenerational I imagine. Those whose parents didn't vote or engage in civic life are less likely to do so.

KingBrian2

MouseTail wrote: »

It is also intergenerational I imagine. Those whose parents didn't vote or engage in civic life are less likely to do so.

The water protesters must take some responsibility for this. They complain about how unrepresentative this govt is and how the country is rotten to the core but elections come and go and they waste their vote by either not bothering to vote or giving it away for nothing.

sdanseo

KingBrian2 wrote: »

The water protesters must take some responsibility for this. They complain about how unrepresentative this govt is and how the country is rotten to the core but elections come and go and they waste their vote by either not bothering to vote or giving it away for nothing.

They'll all also shoulder the blame for Sinn Féin getting more seats this time round. People are so caught up in the relatively unimportant issue of water charges that they don't notice - or don't care at all - that Sinn Féin are completely incompetent. They just want someone to axe their €160 a year bill.