Are Fianna Fail FFinished?

jetsonx

The tipping point has been reached lads...FF are going into a tail-spin...

Is it surprising? No, here's why:

1) Ever since their artificially inflated bubble-burst they are completely deluded that they had anything to do with the crash.

2) As a result, in their FF deluded mode failed to even do a superficial reform of their party. They decided to continue on as if nothing had ever happened.

3) Their time in opposition has been pathetic. For the last number of the years their flash-suited politicians would jump on any bandwagon possible for some cheap votes. If there was a problem with bunny rabbits invading the country. FF politicians would be there at the Bunny Rabbit Control Association doing a photo-shoot and dispensing trite soundbites about some stupid "five point plan" to control the bunnies.

4) They have NO ideas of their own. Bandwagon jumping is all they are good for.

5) Since the crash, nobody really knows exactly what the FF political ideology is. But, deep inside most people know that FF politicians are just in it for the money.

To use their beloved phrase, going forward, FF are f@cked...

oppenheimer1

I'd disagree. They have acknowledged their role in the crash and admitted that mistakes were made.

Your post isn't reasoned, but looks like that of a person who wants FF to die, rather than outlining a convincing case that they are on their death bed.

BoJack Horseman

Not finished no....

However, they are very much in a state of torpor though.
There was a slight rally in the years post the 2011 GE, but its sliding back.

In opposition they have suffered from being in the unenviable situation of being out-noised by the Shinners but when they do try their hardest at populism, they get hammered for it.

They have also been quite reasoned at times, especially at pre-budget submissions.... (However no one is interested in sensibility so its ignored)

Still too much old guard for the general public too.

dixiefly

First of all the OP asks a question and then goes to great lengths to answer the question in such a way that it wold seem that the OP is not open to any other answer.

In my opinion Fianna Fail are not finished as they still have a sizeable portion of the electorate that will vote for them no matter what. Added to that the mistakes of the current government and the historic legacy that surrounds Sinn Fein then I would say that Fianna Fail can survive.

They would probably need to ditch Michael Martin. Personally, I am not sure f I could ever vote for them considering their behavior in the past but the Irish electorate are fickle.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

BlutendeRabe

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

They pretty much won the same % vote in 2014 as they did in 2009. The total number of City and County council seats increased by 66. While they're ahead by one percentage point in the latest poll, they've been trading places with SF in the polls for 2nd place since 2014. FF suffered a wipe out in the Euro's only holding on to one seat.

They've lost two high profile councillors in the past month; one to Renua Ireland and the other was the party's only certain gain in Dublin in the next GE. On top of that, Martin's leadership is constantly under threat from O'Cuiv and McGuiness.

For Reals

No. And sadly never will. As long as there are ignorant and/or self serving people there will always be a Fianna Fail.
You've the kind that make out of it and the blind followers who are, and I'm quoting from an actual conversation, "I'm a Fianna Fail man, like my father and his father before him".

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

_Kaiser_

I still reckon that when it comes down to it, standing there in the polling booth people will not vote for SF in any great numbers regardless of what pre-election polls may suggest. Too much baggage, Gerry being caught up in scandal after scandal, and too left-wing for most.

LAB it seems won't do a Greens and implode but I can't see them doing very well next year either. They've alienated too many of their core voters.

FF need to lose Martin, O'Dea and some of the rest of the old hangers-on if they're to progress anywhere meaningful at this point I think. Many still haven't forgiven them for the crash, but forget that FG in opposition wanted to spend even more.

Independents and left-wing parties will take a dive in popularity as the economy improves and the upcoming giveaway Budget (why else all the noise about how far we are ahead of predicted tax returns)

That leaves us with FG and they've proven themselves just as able at the cronyism, scandal, corruption and incompetence as FF - with added arrogance and a "leader" that was nearly overthrown himself a few years back. Achieved nothing of real note beyond implementing the FF/Troika plan and clapping themselves on the back for every job created via policies they had nothing to do with.

None particularly palatable IMO, but if I HAD to choose one of those choices, it'd probably be FF - let's face it, we're effectively a one-party State anyway. FG only get in when FF need a hiding and are so similar they might as well merge and get it over with.. which could also happen yet!

irishfeen

I think the longer Michael Martin is leader the more damage is being done - how younger party members haven't challenged his leadership is unbelievable... It goes shows FF as a party hasn't changed one bit.

They need the contaminated TD's shoved to the back benches and a totally new look - New Fianna Fáil needs to be launched by the youth of the party. I think people are just sick of the current FF brand - I don't know if it's just me but I get the feeling if FF had the chance again they would lead us down the same path in their hunger for power.

They need to openly and honestly come out and apologise to the people, shut up former TD's/Taoiseach's from blaming international markets etc. and remove anyone who sat at cabinet over the boom years.

Quin_Dub

Fianna Fail will be the largest Opposition party after the next Election..

At current polling levels , they'' have more seats than SF..

Barring some major unforseen events I cannot see SF gaining very much more traction as the economy recovers , FF will hold what they've got for the most part.

So , to answer the OP - No , not finished at all.

BlutendeRabe

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Fianna Fail will be the largest Opposition party after the next Election..

At current polling levels , they'' have more seats than SF..

Barring some major unforseen events I cannot see SF gaining very much more traction as the economy recovers , FF will hold what they've got for the most part.

So , to answer the OP - No , not finished at all.

Where do you see FF gaining btw?

Manach

My 2c. There will be a measure backlash against present government. Independents and SF of course picking up a good deal of this, but FF also will benefit. Likely not enough to bring them within an measure of power but might be enough to inject some new blood and pursue a re-vitalise campaign next time around.

hfallada

I think if they can develop strong values and policies, they will have a good choice in the next GE. SF is only doing well at the moment with their anti-water charges campaign. Which most middle to high income earners dont care about. €160 for water a year is nothing when you are pissed with having to pay a top marginal tax rate of 51% and get a pension that is few euros a week more than a non-contributory pension.


I could see a party with strong liberal values doing well. Most parties are still treating their campaigns like this is 1975. If you have a party saying 'We are liberal, we want to have another proper refernum on abortion, divorce etc. We want to strongly reduce welfare and reduce income tax'. They could secure a large amount of the seats. Higher income people vote in large numbers, where as lower income groups rarely do. Even the GOP in the US realises its alienating a huge amount of young voters by being anti-gay and prochoice. Even the poster child for the GOP, Aaron Schock is even allegedly Gay.

Yet here all parties are fairly social conservative and will alienate young voters, who want to live in a liberal 21st Century European country and not something on par with 1950s Southern State in the US regarding abortion, divorce, LGBT rights. Anything that is mildly controversial is ignored by the Government and any other party. This wont cut it with young voters. How many women here are pissed with ****ty abortion rights? How many high income earners are annoyed with huge taxes? There is tons, but no party to cater for them. If FF is that party, they will do well in election.

For Reals

irishfeen wrote: »

I think the longer Michael Martin is leader the more damage is being done - how younger party members haven't challenged his leadership is unbelievable... It goes shows FF as a party hasn't changed one bit.

They need the contaminated TD's shoved to the back benches and a totally new look - New Fianna Fáil needs to be launched by the youth of the party. I think people are just sick of the current FF brand - I don't know if it's just me but I get the feeling if FF had the chance again they would lead us down the same path in their hunger for power.

They need to openly and honestly come out and apologise to the people, shut up former TD's/Taoiseach's from blaming international markets etc. and remove anyone who sat at cabinet over the boom years.

Why? This is the problem with Irish politics, it's teams and families not social or political beliefs based on the good of the nation.
Why re-invent a generationally corrupt party? A historically selfish party, (DeValera, Haughey, Ahern)?
I don't understand the need to 'fix' this institution, if these youth are at all looking to better the country, start a party based on values not family ties and a skewed version of patriotism.
They'll **** us again.

Fool me several times, shame on....?

Just a little Samba

FF are still a force because there are still enough older people who vote purely along civil war lines to keep them a force.

NIMAN

To the original question, simple answer, I hope so.

Good loser

I have always voted FF or FG and expect to continue doing so.

Would be amazed if their combined vote went below 50% - because the degree of property ownership in this country makes us conservative (small c).

FF oppositionalism since the defeat is tiresome and childish; Sean Fleming being the most egregious example - can't stand the guy.

I will be FG the next time DV.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Galwayguy35

No they are not finished, they haven't made any real gains in the last few polls but aren't really losing support either.

As for SF I think a lot of the popularity is due to the fact that they have many hard working councillors helping at local level, when it comes to policies the party leadership has nothing to offer and Adams as leader doesn't sit well with a lot of voters this side of the border.

All this helps FF come election time.

They need to ditch Martin though, he was part of the corrupt Government that sank the country.

_Kaiser_

So I just read a thread over in Accommodation and Property that says the current Government are proposing to use tax payer's money to bail out people in mortgage arrears!

Aside from the kick in the teeth to responsible taxpayers who do pay their bills, it shows that there really is no difference between them and FF as they try to buy the next election with this stunt .. and thanks to the property-obsessed Irish it'll probably work too!

Just a little Samba

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

So I just read a thread over in Accommodation and Property that says the current Government are proposing to use tax payer's money to bail out people in mortgage arrears!

Aside from the kick in the teeth to responsible taxpayers who do pay their bills, it shows that there really is no difference between them and FF as they try to buy the next election with this stunt .. and thanks to the property-obsessed Irish it'll probably work too!

If they are taking this step it's to "protect" house prices by not allowing the market to be flooded with foreclosed homes. It's the same reason Nama, BOI and AIB are sitting on property in Dublin, it help "protect" inflated property prices.

Idbatterim

well I see that FG propose taking tens of thousands more out of the tax net, what a great idea :rolleyes: The vast majority here are either contributing far too little to the state if on lowish incomes or getting to much from it if on welfare...

For Reals

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Can we agree there are right wing nutcases too?
It seems if the nut cases are making money for the right people* it's preferable to nut cases spending money on the poor.

(*See Cowen/Ahern/Lennihan/Kenny/Noonan)

BoJack Horseman

For Reals wrote: »

Can we agree there are right wing nutcases too?

See Cowen/Ahern/Lennihan/Kenny/Noonan)

If you think the above as 'right wing nutcases, you frankly haven't the remotest clue what your talking about.

catbear

If FG can sell the recovery from FF administration a lot more, then they may retain defectors from the last election.

This election is SF big chance to overtake FF though they've got to offer a newer front line than the current FF and SF. They have to buy into the recovery narrative too, everyone is fatigued by misery and want some sense of forward momentum, even if it's only imaginary.

The last election was about revulsion. The next election is about selling a new prosperity. As always some will be left behind. SF have got to be seen as an approachable alternative to FF. SF shouldn't focus on FG but on FF, they can pick off the remaining rump of the traditionalist vote.

FF will still be strong in rural areas but in urban areas SF can poach FF support.

ezra_pound

For Reals wrote: »

Can we agree there are right wing nutcases too?
It seems if the nut cases are making money for the right people* it's preferable to nut cases spending money on the poor.

(*See Cowen/Ahern/Lennihan/Kenny/Noonan)

Yes. There are right wing nut cases but they tend to get fewer than 100 votes so none of them are actually a concern and won't be elected in 2016.

The nuts currently in the dail are all left wing.

For Reals

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If you think the above as 'right wing nutcases, you frankly haven't the remotest clue what your talking about.

In the parameters of the Irish political scene, you find those gents of sound fiscal mind and communist?

BoJack Horseman

For Reals wrote: »

In the parameters of the Irish political scene, you find those gents of sound fiscal mind and communist?

Bertie Ahern, Ends Kenny etc.... Centrist.

"Right wing nutcases".... No & silly to suggest same.

Quin_Dub

catbear wrote: »

If FG can sell the recovery from FF administration a lot more, then they may retain defectors from the last election.

This election is SF big chance to overtake FF though they've got to offer a newer front line than the current FF and SF. They have to buy into the recovery narrative too, everyone is fatigued by misery and want some sense of forward momentum, even if it's only imaginary.

The last election was about revulsion. The next election is about selling a new prosperity. As always some will be left behind. SF have got to be seen as an approachable alternative to FF. SF shouldn't focus on FG but on FF, they can pick off the remaining rump of the traditionalist vote.

FF will still be strong in rural areas but in urban areas SF can poach FF support.

I still don't see SF even getting to be the largest party in opposition tbh..

Their Opinion poll ratings have topped out around the 25% mark and will continue to slid back somewhat over the next 6-9 months - I reckon that they'll be on 20/21 in the close run up to the Election.. with most of the decline shifting back to the Government parties (mostly to FG) , independents will slide too as there are a lot of "don't knows" hiding in those figures..I expect FG/LAB to be around 32%/33% combined which should get them around 70 seats, leaving only 9 to get for a majority - probably made up of 2 or 3 Renua and a scattering of Indys

FF have also topped out in terms of opinion polls , but I don't see them declining any further to any great degree..


SF at around 20%/21% and FF a bit behind around the 17%/18% in opinion polls would see FF hold on to all of their current seats (and maybe squeak another seat in Dublin) and finish with more seats than SF based on better transfers and better geographic coverage.

For Reals

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Bertie Ahern, Ends Kenny etc.... Centrist.

"Right wing nutcases".... No & silly to suggest same.

I consider FG right wing by Irish standards and to be honest I don't rate FF as a political party, more of a self serving group, in politics by happenstance as it's were the money is.

Streetwalker

FF are a criminal organisation. I don't support criminals.

Uncle Ben

No worse than FG from where I'm standing.

RandomName2

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I'd disagree. They have acknowledged their role in the crash and admitted that mistakes were made.

Have they?

RobertKK

FF need to get rid of Micheal Martin, who has done his best to make sure the party lost its identity.
They use to be socially conservative, now the same as the rest, they need to talk about how the bailout program they signed upto was right for the country and how the current government implemented most of what they had agreed to, given the economy is getting better.

FF's biggest problem though is Micheal Martin.

sdanseo

jetsonx wrote: »

The tipping point has been reached lads...FF are going into a tail-spin...

Is it surprising? No, here's why:

1) Ever since their artificially inflated bubble-burst they are completely deluded that they had anything to do with the crash.

2) As a result, in their FF deluded mode failed to even do a superficial reform of their party. They decided to continue on as if nothing had ever happened.

3) Their time in opposition has been pathetic. For the last number of the years their flash-suited politicians would jump on any bandwagon possible for some cheap votes. If there was a problem with bunny rabbits invading the country. FF politicians would be there at the Bunny Rabbit Control Association doing a photo-shoot and dispensing trite soundbites about some stupid "five point plan" to control the bunnies.

4) They have NO ideas of their own. Bandwagon jumping is all they are good for.

5) Since the crash, nobody really knows exactly what the FF political ideology is. But, deep inside most people know that FF politicians are just in it for the money.

To use their beloved phrase, going forward, FF are f@cked...

Much as I dislike some of the fairly monumental cock-ups the FF made, not to mention the decades of corruption (and we still don't know the truthful extent of how widespread it was) I don't agree that they lack an ideology of their own, actually reading a lot of their policy, I agree with much of it.

Essentially you sound like you're on more of a rampage than anything else.

Streetwalker wrote: »

FF are a criminal organisation. I don't support criminals.

Careful now, the tar is dripping off your brush.

As for SF, the problem with them in any sort of position of power is that they're a populist movement with no real idea what they're doing.

Dannyboy83

hfallada wrote: »

here all parties are fairly social conservative and will alienate young voters, who want to live in a liberal 21st Century European country and not something on par with 1950s Southern State in the US regarding abortion, divorce, LGBT rights. Anything that is mildly controversial is ignored by the Government and any other party. This wont cut it with young voters. How many women here are pissed with ****ty abortion rights? How many high income earners are annoyed with huge taxes? There is tons, but no party to cater for them. If FF is that party, they will do well in election.

I think it was Churchill who said (heavily paraphrasing), if they'd missed their chance to implement the welfare state, it would be hard to see another opportunity arising for some time, but once it was done, it was immutable.

Abortion, Gay marriage and associated wedge issues are expected to progress with the passage of time.
Conversely, it seems the welfare state is stronger than ever.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0728/633463-esri/
According to the ESRI, the policy of protecting those who are dependent on the social welfare system has contributed to an outcome where inequality in the distribution of income has actually fallen over the last five years.

Ireland, it says, differed from other EU countries where the gap between the richest and poorest increased significantly as a result of the crisis.

Economist John Fitzgerald said that the average income has fallen by 8% from the peak to today, while the welfare bill has risen from 13% of income before the crisis to 20% now.

So basically Ireland jacked up tax rates on middle income earners to maintain social welfare, and unlike the rest of the EU, income inequality actually decreased here despite a much more severe economic catastrophe, compared to other EU countries.

Many of us have been hoping for the scenario you outlined in your post, it has certainly been discussed on this forum as far back as I can remember, and while I don't know the specific reason why no party has emerged from the vacuum to fill what is a fairly standard role in most other democracies, I'm wondering whether it has become an immutable part of the Irish political DNA?
Presumably if a government cannot introduce welfare changes during a collapse, there is no hope for such changes during a revival?
.
.

I've commented on this elsewhere before, but in Poland when many of the young people began emigrating after EU accession, the younger people who tended to be liberal & were required to balance out the system had emigrated, which meant the social conservatives were unusually strong and Kaczynski came to power with the Law & Justice party, and protectionist policies and anti-gay policies etc..

In the past in Ireland, it was primarily the unemployed and under-qualified who used to emigrate. Now it seems to be highly qualified people and 'apparently' those already in employment.
Does the perpetual emigration of this section of society mean Ireland will never achieve the critical mass required to establish a more typical left/right divide as you outlined in your post?

For Reals

RobertKK wrote: »

FF need to get rid of Micheal Martin, who has done his best to make sure the party lost its identity.
They use to be socially conservative, now the same as the rest, they need to talk about how the bailout program they signed upto was right for the country and how the current government implemented most of what they had agreed to, given the economy is getting better.

FF's biggest problem though is Micheal Martin.

Ireland's biggest problem is people who believe any of the above.

RobertKK

For Reals wrote: »

Ireland's biggest problem is people who believe any of the above.

No it is not. It is people who say something is a problem and then don't explain why they are right and the other person is wrong.

Sierra Oscar

Quin_Dub wrote: »

SF at around 20%/21% and FF a bit behind around the 17%/18% in opinion polls would see FF hold on to all of their current seats (and maybe squeak another seat in Dublin) and finish with more seats than SF based on better transfers and better geographic coverage.

If FF were to get the exact same first preference votes as they got in 2011 the party would still return with around 30 seats.

There were a lot of marginal seats lost the last time around due to two candidates, or more, being on the ticket. That was necessary because there were so many incumbent TD's. The party will be running much tighter tickets this time around judging by the selection conventions it has held so far. There is also the transfer factor. The by-elections held so far have shown that FF is becoming more transfer friendly over time.

I can see FF coming back with around 40 seats or there about. At the moment I would say it will be a FG / Lab / Ind Government.

Slutmonkey57b

The last election should have been both a wake up call for the existing parties and for the electorate too, given the rise of the independents and the obliteration of FF in Dublin.

However the people voted in with a clear mandate to clean up the mess immediately stuck two fingers up at the electorate and proceeded to do nothing whatsoever apart from slide around in exactly the same cronyish corrupt swamp of money, privilige and power that FF did. Bondholders didn't get burned, bankers didn't get jailed and secrets weren't told.

While it would be nice to see FF to get totally obliterated at the next election, unfortunately there are still too many hidebound country "I'm a FF man" voters who will never change, and the electorate in Dublin have been shown that getting rid of FF changes nothing because the other main parties are exactly the same.

Now they must decide whether to obliterate Labour, FF or FG at the next election because all three deserve it. SF has a strong core of voters but will they pick up more votes when real power is being decided? The political classes are bricking it at the prospect, and for that reason I'm inclined to vote for them...

Seth Brundle

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I'd disagree. They have acknowledged their role in the crash and admitted that mistakes were made.

Your post isn't reasoned, but looks like that of a person who wants FF to die, rather than outlining a convincing case that they are on their death bed.

A mealy mouthed apology doesn't count.

Look who is still there from the old guard...

• Micheal Martin
• Willie O'Dea
• Mary Hanafin
• Éamon Ó Cuiv
• Brendan Smith
• John McGuinness
• Michael Kitt
• ...

As they say, a leopard doesn't change it's sopts!

NIMAN wrote: »

To the original question, simple answer, I hope so.

Seconded!

jetsonx

For Reals wrote: »

to be honest I don't rate FF as a political party, more of a self serving group, in politics by happenstance as it's were the money is.

Excellent point...I am just trying to think about the last time I heard an FF politician genuinely talk passionately about something which was rooted out of a core set of values.

Every time I see them...I just see a bunch of used car salesmen.

mayogirlie1

I don't believe that the Fianna F party are "finished" Yes of course mistakes were made during their previous time in government however they have accepted their wrongdoings.

Also it is my firm contention that Sinn Fein economic policies are simply absurd and may I go so far to say - farcical. Their policies have no substance except maybe to tax the rich and scrap water charges???

I am seventeen years old and my family have no affiliation with any political party however I have a strong interest in political matters and if there was a general election in the morning(and if I was 18) FiannaF would be my first preference . As they would be with many of my peers

Seth Brundle

mayogirlie1 wrote: »

I don't believe that the Fianna F party are "finished" Yes of course mistakes were made during their previous time in government however they have accepted their wrongdoings.

Also it is my firm contention that Sinn Fein economic policies are simply absurd and may I go so far to say - farcical. Their policies have no substance except maybe to tax the rich and scrap water charges???

I am seventeen years old and my family have no affiliation with any political party however I have a strong interest in political matters and if there was a general election in the morning(and if I was 18) FiannaF would be my first preference . As they would be with many of my peers

Which of their policies interests you most?

joe912

For Reals wrote: »

Why? This is the problem with Irish politics, it's teams and families not social or political beliefs based on the good of the nation.
Why re-invent a generationally corrupt party? A historically selfish party, (DeValera, Haughey, Ahern)?
I don't understand the need to 'fix' this institution, if these youth are at all looking to better the country, start a party based on values not family ties and a skewed version of patriotism.
They'll **** us again.

Fool me several times, shame on....?

As much as F.F was corrupt F.G were cowardly (fitzgerald, bruton, Kenny)?

joe912

F.F lost some of its core vote to F.G. some small bit of this they may recover. Mainly due to F.G's arrogance. F.G will retain their core vote and a small bit more. The party who will be in real trouble after the next election is labour. Presuming that S.F will scoop up some of the ex F.F and Lab vote, they will most likely lead the opposition. The best outcome for sinn fein would be to be in opposition to a F.G F.F coalition.

NIMAN

Does anyone really think SF would like to be in power?

Sometimes I wonder, as being in opposition is easy. All you have to do is slag off the current Gov and claim you wouldn't make mistakes if you were in power.

But SF in power would of course have to make the real decisions that all political parties have to make, the painful ones that turn voters against you. Or are SF voters so blinkered in their love of the party that they could see no wrong?

ezra_pound

joe912 wrote: »

As much as F.F was corrupt F.G were cowardly (fitzgerald, bruton, Kenny)?

Can you please justify this statement ?

Dob74

Permabear wrote:

This post had been deleted.

FF got 17% in 2011 GE. They will be in coalition with Fg after the next election. Then they are finished.

Eric Cartman

BlutendeRabe wrote: »

Where do you see FF gaining btw?

on actual polling day when the keyboard warrior unemployed and under 30 die hard shiners aren't bothered going to a polling booth.