Paris Roubaix 2015 (contains spoilers)

Darkglasses

A slightly early thread, but I think this year's edition is deserving of a good build up

The final cobbled classic of 2015 comes this Sunday, and although many of the teams still have not been announced yet we have a very large list of possible contenders for the win. Cancellara and Boonen will definitely be missing due to injury, which opens the door for a large number of other riders.

Firstly, the course.



There are 27 sectors of pavé on the route, with the only notable change being the Carrefour de l'Arbre being upgraded to a 5* difficulty, along with the Arenberg trench and Mons-en-Pévèle. ASO's Thierry Govenou says the Carrefour de l'Arbre is even worse than last year. "With time, the Carrefour de l’Arbre has got harder and harder. In terms of difficulty, it’ll be right up there with the Arenberg Forest this year. Over the whole sector, I don’t think there’s a single level cobblestone."

The other aspect of any Paris Roubaix course is whether the riders will be contending with dust (dry) or mud (wet). There is at least a 50% chance of rain on Saturday, but it expected to have fully cleared up by the race on Sunday.

After his peerless early season form, Alexander Kristoff will rightly go into Sunday as favourite (5/1). Kristoff has an outstanding record in the cobbled hills of the Tour of Flanders, not finishing outside of the top 5 for the last 3 years, although his Paris-Roubaix record is not as strong as some of his competitors.

Despite losing Boonen, Etixx Quickstep will almost certainly still go into Sunday with the strongest team on paper. They are yet to confirm their team, but last year's winner and Tours of Flanders runner-up Niki Terpstra and his team-mate Sep Vanmarcke Stijn Vandenbergh are likely to be joint leaders, although Zdenek Stybar will be a valuable alternative option should Terpstra or Vanmarckedenbergh struggle.

Bradley Wiggins (8/1) has made no secret of his desire to win at Roubaix, whether he has the ability to do so is a contentious matter. Doubts hover over his tactility nous and mental resolve, and his early-season form does not compare well with the riders above. However, he will be desperate to finish his road career with a bang, and his solid performance in last year's edition is reason for optimism.

Peter Sagan's (12/1) struggles are well known, and the pressure is building. Despite having won the last 3 green jerseys in the Tour de France, his inability to put away a big monument win is mysterious. He rode a clever Tour of Flanders, finishing fourth, but lacked the power to pursue van Avermaet who took the last place on the podium.

My own pick for this race is Lars Boom (18/1). Astana are also sending a very capable squad, featuring Grivko, Westra and Bozic to support Boom. A more leader-focused team than I expect Etixx Quickstep will be, Boom took a notable win on last year's pavé stage of the Tour de France.

See also Van Avermaet (16/1), Degenkolb (8/1)

Euro Fred

Best race of the year IMO

Chips Lovell

Looks like the roads are in great nick

neris

Cant see wiggins doing anything in this. Watching him last week looked like he wanted to be anywhere but on his bike. Etixx to take it Terpstra if steinbergh doesnt get in his way

dastardly00

Darkglasses wrote: »

Despite losing Boonen, Etixx Quickstep will almost certainly still go into Sunday with the strongest team on paper. They are yet to confirm their team, but last year's winner and Tours of Flanders runner-up Niki Terpstra and his team-mate Sep Vanmarcke are likely to be joint leaders, although Zdenek Stybar will be a valuable alternative option should Terpstra or Vanmarcke struggle.

@Darkglasses

You've got Sep Vanmarcke (Lotto-NL Jumbo) mixed up with Stijn Vandenbergh.

You can edit your post and delete this one to save you from the shame and embarrassment :P

Darkglasses

dastardly00 wrote: »

@Darkglasses

You've got Sep Vanmarcke (Lotto-NL Jumbo) mixed up with Stijn Vandenbergh.

You can edit your post and delete this one to save you from the shame and embarrassment :P

They all look the same to me

ROK ON

Stybar for me.
But at some stage Van Avermaet will take a classic. With Tom and Fabian on the injured list there is about 12 guys who cannot be ruled out.
Would like to have seen Wiggo do it but he simply hasn't shown the form. As Fabian would say there is a difference between goals and dreams.

CptMackey

Really looking forward to this. Very hard to see sagan doing it as much as I would like to see him win.

Wiggins would love to do it but not sure he would have it in him.

If it rains it will be anybody's race

Decuc500

Geraint Thomas has a good chance. I think this race suits him more than Flanders.

Leroy42

@Jep, is that really the type of roads the race goes down? it is incredible that the whole thing manages to get through at all.

Darkglasses

Leroy42 wrote: »

@Jep, is that really the type of roads the race goes down? it is incredible that the whole thing manages to get through at all.

Not on race day - a group of about a dozen volunteers called "Les Amis de Paris Roubaix" do maintenance work on the cobbled sections, so the surface itself isn't so muddy. However that kind of flooding is entirely possible - it was this bad during Sky's recon ride earlier this week



Here's a video of the group at work -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz5p4Y7Dr3I

gman2k

Kelly has gone for Thomas on his blog.
My money (via Paddy Power) is on Terpstra, got him at 14/1 a couple of months back.
Any of the top riders in the last month are capable of the win.

Darkglasses

gman2k wrote: »

Kelly has gone for Thomas on his blog.
My money (via Paddy Power) is on Terpstra, got him at 14/1 a couple of months back.
Any of the top riders in the last month are capable of the win.

Betting months in advance seems to be the way to go. I got Lars Boom e/w at 33/1 ages ago. I did have a bit of a heart-attack when I thought Astana's licence would be revoked, but I think I would have gotten my money back in that case anyway.

dastardly00

If you haven't seen "A Sunday in Hell", it's well worth a watch before the race. It's a documentary about the 1977 Paris-Roubaix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxBTVU9JDrA

Taxuser1

I've it down to 4 riders in varying scenarios. In a plain old power slog, it's hard to see past John Degenkolb 9/1 or Kristoff but the Norwegian has no form here. Degs on the other hand was only beaten by numbers of Quick Step last year but he followed every Vanmarcke and Cancellara dig.

Sagan 16/1 rode a fantastic race here last year and looks to be coming back to shape, if he improves 1 or 2% on Flanders he's got a massive chance.

GVA is my other market pick, 16/1 is massive with his e/w form to date. I'm waiting until in-running for Lars Boom , he's far too short now even at 20/1 with only a recent showing at Flanders to his name and a 6th place back in 2012 here. But I rate him if he's still there after Carrefour de l'arbe with 20kms to go. Type to slip away a la Terpstra.

Thomas may have peaked last week and must be tired now, been competitive since Paris Nice. Terpstra is too short in the markets to back as is Stybar. In running bets on them if at all. Their harmony pre Flanders may be put to the test if Terpstra attacks before Stybar this week. Terpstra took an age to get back in last year and only with Wiggins and Boonen's help. Took his chance well though.

marvin80

Looking forward to this race.

I'm backing Degenkolb at 8/1 - tipping along nicely this year and did well in this race last year.

Koobcam

Taxuser1 wrote: »

I've it down to 4 riders in varying scenarios. In a plain old power slog, it's hard to see past John Degenkolb 9/1 or Kristoff but the Norwegian has no form here. Degs on the other hand was only beaten by numbers of Quick Step last year but he followed every Vanmarcke and Cancellara dig.

Kristoff did finish 9th a couple of years back and is in supreme form (looks like he might be about to bag another win now in the schnidepris), so I'd be thinking he is as good a bet as any.

bazermc

dastardly00 wrote: »

If you haven't seen "A Sunday in Hell", it's well worth a watch before the race. It's a documentary about the 1977 Paris-Roubaix.

Road to roubaix is also worth a watch.

Apart from the 30 seconds where Lance says he always wished he had ridden it. News Flash lance! You never would have been able to, drugs wont help you win this one, and roubaix is for the tough men, of which you are not.

Leroy42

bazermc wrote: »

drugs wont help you win this one,

I think you'll find that they probably do!

Wishbone Ash

Weatherwise - bit of light rain forecast for the afternoon. Temperatures between 10 and 16 degrees. Light south westerly.

Brian?

Decuc500 wrote: »

Geraint Thomas has a good chance. I think this race suits him more than Flanders.

I politely disagree, Thomas has good climbing legs and should in theory be better suited to the Tour of Flanders.

I shall be back Peter Sagan. I've picked the winners of the first 2 monuments this year.

drogdub

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

Weatherwise - bit of light rain forecast for the afternoon. Temperatures between 10 and 16 degrees. Light south westerly.

I think Kelly was saying that the worst thing weatherwise is when it's been raining during the week but dry on the day.

MPFG

My favourite race of the year also

Lots of riders to chose from but if in form Stannard is a good e/w bet
And Wiggo a good each way bet ...he hasn't shown any form but he is an stubborn and obstinate so and so and you cannot see him not putting on a good show

Stybar is a good bet for the win

But it a bit of an obstacle race and anything can and will happen

drogdub

After watching Terpstra in Flanders last year I went for him in Roubaix. I will do the same this year. Actually this is what I tweeted to Last year before the race https://twitter.com/drogdub/status/452192508333027329

JK.BMC

Looking like a dry, fast, bike-handling hammerfest, similar to 2011, 2013. Sounds like it should suit the big mulluckers like Sagan, Degenkolb and Terpstra, though I'm avoiding any bets till after Arenberg and see what way Sky/Lotto are fixed as they have shown themselves at the front a lot on this seasons cobbles. It would actually be great to see Wiggins make the key selection minus the team so he would have to grind it out regardless and there would be no leadership questions to use as an excuse. Many of the great champions have had to do it the hard way to Roubaix (Terpstra didnt really) so lets have ya Sir Brad on Sunday, going toe-to-toe with the best classics riders around.! Just for the drama it would be well worth it

Realisticly, he probably wont win. Andre Greipel probably wont either but if the German Giant is still hanging tough around Carrefour de l'Arbre, then what a finale we will have as nobody wants him on the wheel entering the velodrome.

What chance a French win? Overdue? Demare had rotten luck last year and still was just outside top10; his year may come in time. I fancy Damian 'bag of spanners' Gaudin for top French finisher, fairly guaranteed to go on one of his heroicly misjudged attacks in the final 60km or so, and could be still up there coming in to the finale

Lots to ponder!

Darkglasses

JK.BMC wrote: »

Looking like a dry, fast, bike-handling hammerfest, similar to 2011, 2013. Sounds like it should suit the big mulluckers like Sagan, Degenkolb and Terpstra, though I'm avoiding any bets till after Arenberg and see what way Sky/Lotto are fixed as they have shown themselves at the front a lot on this seasons cobbles. It would actually be great to see Wiggins make the key selection minus the team so he would have to grind it out regardless and there would be no leadership questions to use as an excuse. Many of the great champions have had to do it the hard way to Roubaix (Terpstra didnt really) so lets have ya Sir Brad on Sunday, going toe-to-toe with the best classics riders around.! Just for the drama it would be well worth it

Realisticly, he probably wont win. Andre Greipel probably wont either but if the German Giant is still hanging tough around Carrefour de l'Arbre, then what a finale we will have as nobody wants him on the wheel entering the velodrome.

What chance a French win? Overdue? Demare had rotten luck last year and still was just outside top10; his year may come in time. I fancy Damian 'bag of spanners' Gaudin for top French finisher, fairly guaranteed to go on one of his heroicly misjudged attacks in the final 60km or so, and could be still up there coming in to the finale

Lots to ponder!

Gaudin's a great shout I think (150/1), a really capable rider on the cobbles. Wish he was on a better classics team though.

Lusk_Doyle

Darkglasses wrote: »

Gaudin's a great shout I think (150/1), a really capable rider on the cobbles. Wish he was on a better classics team though.

I recall him being out on his own off the front a few years ago while riding for Europcar. He's a hulk on the bike.

ZiabR

Sagan has a chance I think. Even an E/W bet on him is a good one. I can see him on the podium at least.

lennymc

As an homage to the Paris Roubaix, I've been cycling on as many Luas tracks as I can. Our very own Pave.

Darkglasses

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

I recall him being out on his own off the front a few years ago while riding for Europcar. He's a hulk on the bike.

Yup, that's probably the best way to describe him!

Taxuser1

Gaudin is not the same rider he was with Europcar. Neither is Turgot.

Terpstra was dropped last year and only for the riding of Wiggins and Boonen and the complete lack of interest in working up front by the 5 away, he'd never have gotten his chance.

Taxuser1

drogdub wrote: »

After watching Terpstra in Flanders last year I went for him in Roubaix. I will do the same this year. Actually this is what I tweeted to Last year before the race https://twitter.com/drogdub/status/452192508333027329

classic aftertiming !

I backed him in running 50 seconds before he attacked. It was the most obvious move to make at that stage. He was 20/1 .

letape

My money is on Stybar. In great form this year and proved himself last year on the cobbles. If he doesn't win this year, he definitely will in the future.

I also wouldn't be so dismissive of Brad. I know he hasn't shown form (other than TT win last week), but he did an amazing ride to 9th last year and was responsible for bringing his group back to the 5 out front last year with a few k to go. The good weather should suit him also.

pelevin

Wiggins doesn't make much logical sense to me given he hasn't ridden too many of the hard one-day races this year & that particularly he was dropped a long, long way before the finish last week. However the extent to which this in the wider world all seems to be largely going unmentioned & by people who know a hell of a lot more than me has me accepting that maybe I'm all wrong & he is in with a real shout. I don't see it as logical though & I also think surely the experience & knowledge of how to win a 1 day race can't be just ignored, with instead all the emphasis on the physiological side of things - which seems to be totally the path to glory Wiggins as tried to take.

I put a little on Lars Boom, pretty randomly, though I think it all looks a fairly wide open race. If Kristoff can put his unexceptional past here behind him though, then surely he's again the main threat to everyone else. Even on that front though seemingly the big reason Wiggins is being considered so highly is his 9th place last year which was praised to the skies. Well Kristoff had a top 10 the year before so . . . !

dastardly00

If Wiggins did win on Sunday, then he would be the first rider to have won both a Grand Tour and Paris-Roubaix since Sean Kelly.

Can anyone guess the last rider to win both the Tour de France and Paris-Roubaix?

And no Googling!

Lumen

pelevin wrote: »

Wiggins doesn't make much logical sense to me given he hasn't ridden too many of the hard one-day races this year & that particularly he was dropped a long, long way before the finish last week.

Unless his total lack of form is part of some sort of Barney Curley-style betting coup, I can't see Wiggins doing anything useful at all.

MPFG

dastardly00 wrote: »

If Wiggins did win on Sunday, then he would be the first rider to have won both a Grand Tour and Paris-Roubaix since Sean Kelly.

Can anyone guess the last rider to win both the Tour de France and Paris-Roubaix?

And no Googling!

eddy merckx ??...he is the answer to everything in cycling

ford2600

MPFG wrote: »

eddy merckx ??...he si the answer to everything in cycling

http://www.wildlifetrusts.org/sites/default/files/images/Badger%20web%20version%20(Tim%20Matthews).jpg

MPFG

ford2600 wrote: »

http://www.wildlifetrusts.org/sites/default/files/images/Badger%20web%20version%20(Tim%20Matthews).jpg

Thought he said he never rode PR

neris

ford2600 wrote: »

http://www.wildlifetrusts.org/sites/default/files/images/Badger%20web%20version%20(Tim%20Matthews).jpg

Is he not the last french man do pretty much anything

JohnBee

As an aside, does anyone know where is showing this online? Extended highlights or live, Im stuck in Canada

Koobcam

JohnBee wrote: »

As an aside, does anyone know where is showing this online? Extended highlights or live, Im stuck in Canada

Not sure if the Eurosport player works in Canada? Sporza (Belgian TV) show most races, though I think it's geo-restricted.

MPFG

JohnBee wrote: »

As an aside, does anyone know where is showing this online? Extended highlights or live, Im stuck in Canada

PM me

TheBlaaMan

dastardly00 wrote: »

Can anyone guess the last rider to win both the Tour de France and Paris-Roubaix?

Hinault.

dastardly00

ford2600 is correct.

Bernard Hinault was the last person to win both Paris-Roubaix and le Tour during their career.

pelevin

Lumen wrote: »

Unless his total lack of form is part of some sort of Barney Curley-style betting coup, I can't see Wiggins doing anything useful at all.

Though even on that front his odds of 8/1 or so seem to reflect an idea that he's shown really good form & is a very plausible victor. The normal laws of form & expectation don't seem to apply here.

ROK ON

Read an interview with Wiggo today where he mentioned that he would like to finish well - ideally get to the Roubaid velodrome I the company of hIs peers
It would be his dream to win but he doesn't think it is likely. He said he would try to make it to Carrefour dArbe and see what way the land lies so to speak.

QueensGael

While we're heading down memory lane, here's a cracking Roubaix choon for ye - enjoy

MPFG

ROK ON wrote: »

Read an interview with Wiggo today where he mentioned that he would like to finish well - ideally get to the Roubaid velodrome I the company of hIs peers
It would be his dream to win but he doesn't think it is likely. He said he would try to make it to Carrefour dArbe and see what way the land lies so to speak.

If he qot to the Velodrome with his peers he has a good chance of winning...well as least as any peers ...dependent who these peers are ??

Koobcam

Here's one from 1988 for those with a bit more time on their hands: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQsJK81rZ4E

drogdub

Taxuser1 wrote: »

classic aftertiming !

I backed him in running 50 seconds before he attacked. It was the most obvious move to make at that stage. He was 20/1 .

What's aftertiming?