Paris Roubaix 2015 (contains spoilers)

A slightly early thread, but I think this year's edition is deserving of a good build up

The final cobbled classic of 2015 comes this Sunday, and although many of the teams still have not been announced yet we have a very large list of possible contenders for the win. Cancellara and Boonen will definitely be missing due to injury, which opens the door for a large number of other riders.

Firstly, the course.



There are 27 sectors of pavé on the route, with the only notable change being the Carrefour de l'Arbre being upgraded to a 5* difficulty, along with the Arenberg trench and Mons-en-Pévèle. ASO's Thierry Govenou says the Carrefour de l'Arbre is even worse than last year. "With time, the Carrefour de l’Arbre has got harder and harder. In terms of difficulty, it’ll be right up there with the Arenberg Forest this year. Over the whole sector, I don’t think there’s a single level cobblestone."

The other aspect of any Paris Roubaix course is whether the riders will be contending with dust (dry) or mud (wet). There is at least a 50% chance of rain on Saturday, but it expected to have fully cleared up by the race on Sunday.

After his peerless early season form, Alexander Kristoff will rightly go into Sunday as favourite (5/1). Kristoff has an outstanding record in the cobbled hills of the Tour of Flanders, not finishing outside of the top 5 for the last 3 years, although his Paris-Roubaix record is not as strong as some of his competitors.

Despite losing Boonen, Etixx Quickstep will almost certainly still go into Sunday with the strongest team on paper. They are yet to confirm their team, but last year's winner and Tours of Flanders runner-up Niki Terpstra and his team-mate Sep Vanmarcke Stijn Vandenbergh are likely to be joint leaders, although Zdenek Stybar will be a valuable alternative option should Terpstra or Vanmarckedenbergh struggle.

Bradley Wiggins (8/1) has made no secret of his desire to win at Roubaix, whether he has the ability to do so is a contentious matter. Doubts hover over his tactility nous and mental resolve, and his early-season form does not compare well with the riders above. However, he will be desperate to finish his road career with a bang, and his solid performance in last year's edition is reason for optimism.

Peter Sagan's (12/1) struggles are well known, and the pressure is building. Despite having won the last 3 green jerseys in the Tour de France, his inability to put away a big monument win is mysterious. He rode a clever Tour of Flanders, finishing fourth, but lacked the power to pursue van Avermaet who took the last place on the podium.

My own pick for this race is Lars Boom (18/1). Astana are also sending a very capable squad, featuring Grivko, Westra and Bozic to support Boom. A more leader-focused team than I expect Etixx Quickstep will be, Boom took a notable win on last year's pavé stage of the Tour de France.

See also Van Avermaet (16/1), Degenkolb (8/1)