Grand Nationals

Gavster1982

I see that SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is hovering around the 8/1 mark for this. I know its the McCoy factor and a lot of sympathy bets have likely been placed.

Question is does anyone think this will drift?? Or will it likely go off 5/1 or shorter? Is it worth a decent bet or is there an obvious alternative?


Also what is he riding in Irish version? IFINDOUBT? if this wins, ten STFD will liekly get shorter surely...

madmoose

Wish i had more at 25/1 on shutthefrontdoor so i could of laid him when short. I backed in nov so it was long before mccoy said he was finishing.

I like saint are also at 33/1, hes improved under a new trainer this season and should have a low weight here if he makes the cut, 2lbs below when he was 9th in the race two years ago.

zpehtsfd

Gavster1982 wrote: »

I see that SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is hovering around the 8/1 mark for this. I know its the McCoy factor and a lot of sympathy bets have likely been placed.

Question is does anyone think this will drift?? Or will it likely go off 5/1 or shorter? Is it worth a decent bet or is there an obvious alternative?


Also what is he riding in Irish version? IFINDOUBT? if this wins, ten STFD will liekly get shorter surely...

Hard to know as they always come for one on the day. Personally i think that horse will be Rocky Creek. He's a super jumper and has been laid out all season for this whilst last year was just an afterthought after he missed the GC. Wouldn't surprise me if he ends of fav at around 7/1 with STFD 9/1 or better. GL

Miall108

Reckon Balthazar King would be a good shout for the Grand National myself

Bury Down The Hatchet

If In Doubt hasn't an earthly hope of winning of winning the Irish National the way he jumps.

Chances are Shutthefrontdoor will go off sub 5/1 for the National. The caveat for people backing with the intention of laying back at shorter is that his exchange price will be much higher than what the bookmakers will offer.

The great thing about the McCoy factor is the value that will be gotten by taking him on before the end of the season.

Lt J.R. Bell

Miall108 wrote: »

Reckon Balthazar King would be a good shout for the Grand National myself

backing him myself, but i think he needs good ground, to be sure.Each way though

Miall108

Lt J.R. Bell wrote: »

backing him myself, but i think he needs good ground, to be sure.Each way though

An excellent each way shout at least. I had him backed last year to win but was narrowly beaten by Pineau de Re. Currently 14/1 with Paddy P. Good ground and he will do well. Pretty consistent horse all being said. Must get Rossums opinion on Aintree :pac:

sibersha

He will definitely go off shorter with the books. There will be a massive media spin aroun AP & STFD and every once a year punter from your butcher to your granny will back him on the day and high street books will be falling over themselves to cut his price around 4pm on the day.

Although you may get 10/1+ for some new online account offer that morning. Also his price should hold up on the exchanges.

CheltenhamJ

Saint Are is my fancy for the national , 33-1 is a very decent shout

mr.jingle

Alvarado for me, should get in think he needs 11 more to come out. Ran a cracker last year for 4th staying on all the way to the line. Connections and jockey Paul Moloney have a fantastic record with placed National horses, think its 5 or 6 in a row placed and at 33/1 is a nice each way bet for me.

shamdrog63

mr.jingle wrote: »

Alvarado for me, should get in think he needs 11 more to come out. Ran a cracker last year for 4th staying on all the way to the line. Connections and jockey Paul Moloney have a fantastic record with placed National horses, think its 5 or 6 in a row placed and at 33/1 is a nice each way bet for me.

I agree but thought he was given a very cautious ride last year & was staying on strongly when the race was lost.Would like to see him ridden more positively as he definately stays.

kfallon

The Druid's Nephew and Merry King for me!
Really wanted to back STFD but too short now and will prob only get shorter

Usually back 3 in the race so have to find another contender!

Bangor Billy

mr.jingle wrote: »

Alvarado for me, should get in think he needs 11 more to come out. Ran a cracker last year for 4th staying on all the way to the line. Connections and jockey Paul Moloney have a fantastic record with placed National horses, think its 5 or 6 in a row placed and at 33/1 is a nice each way bet for me.

Depends whether you are just looking for a nice each way bet or are trying to find the winner. Maloney has been placed in the last 6 Nationals I think but has never looked like winning any of them.

I will be having a good look at Al Co when he has his prep race at Bangor tomorrow. Fulfils all the stats, yard is in good form and Bowen has a great record at Aintree. Problem would be that he didn't seem to take to the fences when he ran in the Becher

mr.jingle

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Depends whether you are just looking for a nice each way bet or are trying to find the winner. Maloney has been placed in the last 6 Nationals I think but has never looked like winning any of them.

I will be having a good look at Al Co when he has his prep race at Bangor tomorrow. Fulfils all the stats, yard is in good form and Bowen has a great record at Aintree. Problem would be that he didn't seem to take to the fences when he ran in the Becher

Of course we are all trying to get the winner but at the same time you want someone to give you a good run for your money and at worst place in the race. I don't normally like to back each way in the National and instead of doing 2 e/w singles i'd rather have 4 single wins as the prices are usually decent. All the value is gone in Shutthefrontdoor imo and couldn't touch him.

As for Alvarado, last year was his first run over the trip I could forgive Moloney for giving him every chance of staying it. The National is won predominantly by a horse who is usually up the in the front 15-20 a good chunk of the way then usually in the first 6-7 coming to 3-4 out, Alvarado was near enough dead last the first mile avoided a few collisions on the way obviously but was still a long way down the field in 15th to 20th coming to the last few, was around 9th jumping the last and stayed on very well for 4th. Hopefully this year he is giving the opportunity to get a bit closer as he seemed to really see it out well and wasn't given a chance of catching the leaders last year until it was too late.

Half the battle in the National is getting around and if he does he will be bang there at the finish imo.

Bangor Billy

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Depends whether you are just looking for a nice each way bet or are trying to find the winner. Maloney has been placed in the last 6 Nationals I think but has never looked like winning any of them.

I will be having a good look at Al Co when he has his prep race at Bangor tomorrow. Fulfils all the stats, yard is in good form and Bowen has a great record at Aintree. Problem would be that he didn't seem to take to the fences when he ran in the Becher

Al Co could not have run a better National trial today and I understand connections are really keen on his chances. The doubts about him taking to the course remain but I believe he has had a lot of schooling and so he is probably the sort of horse where you will know your fate after a couple of fences.

Incidentally Godsmejudge was fat as a bullock today.

Lt J.R. Bell

kfallon wrote: »

The Druid's Nephew and Merry King for me!
Really wanted to back STFD but too short now and will prob only get shorter

Usually back 3 in the race so have to find another contender!

I like Merry King, but he hasn't really improved from last year has he?(hasn't ran as much mind)

jj mac

Was going to back kruzhlinin for the national but he seems to be out of the betting. Is there an injury I missed. Cheers.

dickenson famous5

Ran really well in hennessy got to run in national on that form

Bangor Billy

Kruzhlinin was scratched at the 4th March declaration stage.

shamdrog63

I see a lot of people are tipping Alvarado & will have to back it as i backed it last year and would hate if it won after I deserted it.The reservation I have is that Paul Moloney has been placed in the race so many times because he rides them to be placed and gave Alvarado no chance of winning last year.

mulbot

shamdrog63 wrote: »

I see a lot of people are tipping Alvarado & will have to back it as i backed it last year and would hate if it won after I deserted it.The reservation I have is that Paul Moloney has been placed in the race so many times because he rides them to be placed and gave Alvarado no chance of winning last year.

Well then back it for the place! Why would you have a reservation about backing a jockey that has such a good place record? Shows he knows how to ride that race and 25/1 there now on pat power,i'd be happy with that horse placing-you're getting what,5 or 6 to 1.

shamdrog63

mulbot wrote: »

Well then back it for the place! Why would you have a reservation about backing a jockey that has such a good place record? Shows he knows how to ride that race and 25/1 there now on pat power,i'd be happy with that horse placing-you're getting what,5 or 6 to 1.

Yes you are correct in that respect but why should I have to be content with place money when the horse was eminently capable of winning the race last year.Moloney was placed previously on animals that were probably only capable of placing but on last years form Alvarado is well capable of actually winning this years race off a lower weight with a bit more positivity from the saddle.

kfallon

Has anyone gone NRNB on the Grand National yet?

Copper_pipe

kfallon wrote: »

Has anyone gone NRNB on the Grand National yet?

Nearly certain I saw paddy power saw it yesterday on their twitter

EDIT: Non-Runner No Bet applies to bets placed from 4pm on March 25th.

kfallon

Cheers for that, you wouldn't happen to have PP prices for the National (anything down as far as 25/1), poxy firewall in work means I can't access their site!

Copper_pipe

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.web2pdfconvert.com/download?path=57a93c77-cac0-423c-8e3c-9a169c2a3fbawww-paddypower-com.pdf

Mr E

Shutthefrontdoor
8/1

Rocky Creek
10/1

Balthazar King
12/1

The Druids Nephew
14/1

Spring Heeled
20/1

Godsmejudge
20/1

Unioniste
20/1

Cause Of Causes
20/1

Merry King
20/1

Pineau De Re
25/1

Al Co
25/1

Teaforthree
25/1

Alvarado
25/1

Sam Winner
25/1

Ballycasey
25/1

Gallant Oscar
25/1

Many Clouds
25/1

Royale Knight
25/1

Hesh's Umpire

Is Many Clouds likely to run? Have a smallish ante post bet on him.

Johner

Fancied Shutthefrontdoor to run well in the Gold Cup before he was scratched and fancied him for this but 8/1 is a ridiculous price.

kfallon

Johner wrote: »

Fancied Shutthefrontdoor to run well in the Gold Cup before he was scratched and fancied him for this but 8/1 is a ridiculous price.

I think I can just about back him at 8/1, will have a few quid on later today seen as it's NRNB

Dr. Bre

I like the look of gallant Oscar if he can get in. ran 4th behind druid's nephew at chelt and will be better price on the day and have a better weight. Saying that I fancy Druid's also ha