Cheltenham Handicaps

Nulty

I haven't had the chance to go mad on the form yet but now I've got the weekend and time off for the next week, I'm gonna be looking at the handicaps in this years festival. There's way too much form to be looking at on my own so pipe up with your fancies and tell us why!

Tuesday 10 Mar 15
Ultima Handicap Chase 3m1f
Novices' Handicap Chase 2m4f110y

Wednesday 11 Mar 15
Coral Cup 2m5f
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m7f
Fred Winter 2m110y

Thursday 12 Mar 15
Pertemps Final 3m
Brown & Merriebelle Plate 2m5f
Kim Muir 3m2f

Friday 13 Mar 15
County Handicap 2m1f
Martin Pipe 2m4f110y
Grand Annual 2m110y

I've got a feeling Alaivan is gonna go very close in the Pertemps. He's run well at the festival plenty of times but for the past year I've felt he wanted 3 miles. His run at Exeter gives me the confidence that he can do it off the pace we expect from a festival race.

I haven't got any more that I'm bet into yet.

Anyone got fancies?

Nulty

Ultima Business Solutions

Tough going looking at the Ultima Chase. More mature horses tend to win this. An average of an eight year old seems ideal. I'm looking at two Irish horses at the moment: Grand Jesture and Gold Bullet who are just 7 years old and an eight year old English horse Barrakilla.

Grand Jesture won on his way into racing in the Paddy Power at Christmas and failed to fire in that race. He's been confirmed for the this race and has potential improvement. He has good form on goodish ground and a good chase record of 2 wins and 2 seconds form 6 starts.

Gold Bullet is another younger Irish horse. He's inexperienced though and that would be a worry here. His breeding says he wants this sort of trip and his jumping is good enough. As the same with Grand Jesture, he won't mind better ground. I'd like to see how things develop and hear some thing from his trainer before having a bet on him.

Lastly for the Ultima, Barrakilla is a very promising horse. He's very stoutly bred and has good form over 2 1/2 miles this term. Step up in trip should be in his favour. The owners regularly have Grand National placed horses and this looks another for Aintree in the coming years. For now, I think he's probably the best value to be had in this race taking into account his age, experience, class and potential.

I'm taking Grand Jesture 1pt ew @ 33/1 and Barrakilla 2pts ew @ 16/1

Nulty

CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed)

This is another tough one. I haven't seen much of any of these horses this year so I'm a little light on previous knowledge..

Looking at the stats available for this race and having watched some of the key form I'm quite interested in Irish Cavalier for Rebecca Curtis at 20/1. He has a 6lbs pull in the weights with Generous Ransom for a 2 1/4 length beating in January at Cheltenham. It's quite likely that the winner was idling heavily in fromt coming up to the line but I think there's improvement in him should he get better ground on Tuesday. The prices look wrong relative to Genereous Ransom for sure.

Killal Quay is near the top of the weights but that is for a reason. He's a classy horse with not many miles on the clock. The last 5 runnings of this race has gone to horses carrying over 11st and since 2010 the weight the winner has carried has got progressively bigger, allowing for Hunt Ball carrying a penalty in 2012. Killala Quay has experience at Cheltenham having finished 4th in Faugheens Neptune staying on. H'e only had the three chase starts and the better ground he'll likely get on Tuesday gives me confidence that he's over priced at 20/1.

Last but not least I've picked out Horizontal Speed at 16/1. His last run was a winning one and judging by his acceleration after the last, he is value for much more than his winning distance. His jumping was not great at times but I see that as down to the lack of urgency he was under. He was popping fences.He was entitled to win well as a 5/6 shot in that race but he won more easily than that and hasn't gone up the handicap for it either.

This is not a race I'd be backing confidently in. I haven't had a bet and may not at all. If I do back something it's most likely to be Killala Quay. I'll wait to see if I can get an extra place first and maybe a nibble at the price before declarations on Monday in case he's cut.

Bangor Billy

I Like Hawk High @ 20-1 for the County. Did me a big favour in the Fred Winter last year and loves top of the ground.

Peintre Celebre

Nap Grand Vision in the Kim Muir. Creepy has a much better chance than his odds suggest in the Novices Handicap 33/1 on Tuesday with good ground suiting, as long as he is ridden prominently, though Bold Henry is feared most

sdoc13

I like Champion Court in the Byrne Group. Either he is extremely well in or finished at the game. 3 pts win for me.

Whats yere view on ew in the hanicaps for cheltenham week + or -ev?

pugw

He druids nephew the first day

The jock

All the stats point to Ned Stark winning the festival handicap chase.
Edeymi has been absolutely laid our for the Pertemps.
Arbie De Vie is highly fancied for the Coral Cup.
Modem in County Hurdle. Form of Boylesports Hurdle is always worth following.
Quantitiveeasing in the Cross Country race. Enda Bolder, say no more.
Starchitect in Fred Winter. Donald McCain said its by far his best chance.
Jarry D'onheur also but not sure what he runs in yet.

ste2010

I actually like champagne James for the novice handicap chase. All the signs of a ted Walsh plot. I've backed vino griego for the 3m handicap and am considering backing Gevrey chambertin off 138

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

I actually like champagne James for the novice handicap chase. All the signs of a ted Walsh plot. I've backed vino griego for the 3m handicap and am considering backing Gevrey chambertin off 138

He may be a plot but I think CJ is a bit soft.

Fetch There

Would Eddie Harty's horse Sort it Out be rated high enough to get into a handicap. I wouldn't have much knowledge of these things but he looked like he had a bit in hand when he won at Leopardstown on Hennessy day.

posturingpat

Sort it out has a few entries. Big hike in the weight from his last run but he won with any amount in hand and could be interesting.

Peintre Celebre

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Nap Grand Vision in the Kim Muir. Creepy has a much better chance than his odds suggest in the Novices Handicap 33/1 on Tuesday with good ground suiting, as long as he is ridden prominently, though Bold Henry is feared most

Creepy doesn't go. Three in front of Grand Vision in the betting go for the handicap tomorrow. Still 20/1 with ladbrokes going in again

Johner

Really like Ned Stark tomorrow.

shamdrog63

Johner wrote: »

Really like Ned Stark tomorrow.

Me too and Keltus in the last but they,re not great prices.might do Lamb or Cod instead of Ned Stark for value.

andyman

Hopefully Rajdhani Express does the business on Thursday.

He's won me so much in the past and loves Cheltenham.

Mgoraf

Think Gevrey Chambertain could be a bit of a plot. Thought he ran very well in December and Kaki de La Pree has franked the form since, hasn't been seen since then and runs off a nice weight tomorrow. 16/1

Backstreet Moyes

shamdrog63 wrote: »

Me too and Keltus in the last but they,re not great prices.might do Lamb or Cod instead of Ned Stark for value.

8/1 and 12/1 how are they not great prices.

I also don't understand if you fancy Ned Stark why you would back another horse instead because he is a bigger price.

Shemale

Mgoraf wrote: »

Think Gevrey Chambertain could be a bit of a plot. Thought he ran very well in December and Kaki de La Pree has franked the form since, hasn't been seen since then and runs off a nice weight tomorrow. 16/1

His form at the track is uninspiring to say the least.

Mgoraf

Very true I think he had some excuses on those runs though with some poor jumping.

Peintre Celebre

Nuts102 wrote: »

8/1 and 12/1 how are they not great prices.

I also don't understand if you fancy Ned Stark why you would back another horse instead because he is a bigger price.

It's all opinion. You might think 8/1 and 12/1 is a great price, I might think its woeful

shamdrog63

Nuts102 wrote: »

8/1 and 12/1 how are they not great prices.

I also don't understand if you fancy Ned Stark why you would back another horse instead because he is a bigger price.

Ned Stark is 7/1 joint & its a 24 runner ultra competitive h,cap.I just feel he,s not value.He was the 1st leg of a nice double for me a few weeks ago & I feel I could be letting Heart rule the head so would rather be with Lamb or Cod @ 28/1 instead or may back both.Considering Keltus hasn,t won over fences and only won once over hurdles he,s a bit skinny too.Where is he 12/1 by the way?

boomtown84

shamdrog63 wrote: »

Ned Stark is 7/1 joint & its a 24 runner ultra competitive h,cap.I just feel he,s not value.He was the 1st leg of a nice double for me a few weeks ago & I feel I could be letting Heart rule the head so would rather be with Lamb or Cod @ 28/1 instead or may back both.Considering Keltus hasn,t won over fences and only won once over hurdles he,s a bit skinny too.Where is he 12/1 by the way?

Ladbrokes

superfurry1

Mgoraf wrote: »

Think Gevrey Chambertain could be a bit of a plot. Thought he ran very well in December and Kaki de La Pree has franked the form since, hasn't been seen since then and runs off a nice weight tomorrow. 16/1

Really like the look of Gevrey Chambertin could be thrown in here and is getting backed today. According to Treve at a big price also.

The jock

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AdpRo

Nulty wrote: »

Ultima Business Solutions

Tough going looking at the Ultima Chase. More mature horses tend to win this. An average of an eight year old seems ideal. I'm looking at two Irish horses at the moment: Grand Jesture and Gold Bullet who are just 7 years old and an eight year old English horse Barrakilla.

Grand Jesture won on his way into racing in the Paddy Power at Christmas and failed to fire in that race. He's been confirmed for the this race and has potential improvement. He has good form on goodish ground and a good chase record of 2 wins and 2 seconds form 6 starts.

Gold Bullet is another younger Irish horse. He's inexperienced though and that would be a worry here. His breeding says he wants this sort of trip and his jumping is good enough. As the same with Grand Jesture, he won't mind better ground. I'd like to see how things develop and hear some thing from his trainer before having a bet on him.

Lastly for the Ultima, Barrakilla is a very promising horse. He's very stoutly bred and has good form over 2 1/2 miles this term. Step up in trip should be in his favour. The owners regularly have Grand National placed horses and this looks another for Aintree in the coming years. For now, I think he's probably the best value to be had in this race taking into account his age, experience, class and potential.

I'm taking Grand Jesture 1pt ew @ 33/1 and Barrakilla 2pts ew @ 16/1

Nulty wrote: »

CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed)

This is another tough one. I haven't seen much of any of these horses this year so I'm a little light on previous knowledge..

Looking at the stats available for this race and having watched some of the key form I'm quite interested in Irish Cavalier for Rebecca Curtis at 20/1. He has a 6lbs pull in the weights with Generous Ransom for a 2 1/4 length beating in January at Cheltenham. It's quite likely that the winner was idling heavily in fromt coming up to the line but I think there's improvement in him should he get better ground on Tuesday. The prices look wrong relative to Genereous Ransom for sure.

Killal Quay is near the top of the weights but that is for a reason. He's a classy horse with not many miles on the clock. The last 5 runnings of this race has gone to horses carrying over 11st and since 2010 the weight the winner has carried has got progressively bigger, allowing for Hunt Ball carrying a penalty in 2012. Killala Quay has experience at Cheltenham having finished 4th in Faugheens Neptune staying on. H'e only had the three chase starts and the better ground he'll likely get on Tuesday gives me confidence that he's over priced at 20/1.

Last but not least I've picked out Horizontal Speed at 16/1. His last run was a winning one and judging by his acceleration after the last, he is value for much more than his winning distance. His jumping was not great at times but I see that as down to the lack of urgency he was under. He was popping fences.He was entitled to win well as a 5/6 shot in that race but he won more easily than that and hasn't gone up the handicap for it either.

This is not a race I'd be backing confidently in. I haven't had a bet and may not at all. If I do back something it's most likely to be Killala Quay. I'll wait to see if I can get an extra place first and maybe a nibble at the price before declarations on Monday in case he's cut.

Some nice picking there, hope you were on some of them.

Nulty

Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)

Nightmarish handicap. I'm looking at the Irish horses though as they look unexposed and over priced.

Ttebbob was well down the field in a Pertemps qualifier at Leopardstown but he was never put into the race. Almost nothing asked of him. He's a good stayer and has a bit of pace so he should be able to hold his position. The last two years this has been won by very smart hurdlers and both of them stayed very well. Ttebbob should match the second of those categories and goes at a decent price.

The other Irish horse that I'm interested in is one I actually backed in the same race Ttebbob was so quiet in at Leopardstown. Zebana will stay well too, but has that little bit of extra class and pace. He didn't fire at Punchestown last year but won impressively latest at an undulating track. He beat two of his rivals today in that race, Marinero of Tony Martins and Willie Mullins' Daneking.

Both horses are peaking at the right time having won last time out, stay well and both could be under rated here based on their price. Theres some horses in here relatively well under priced.

Take 5 places on each at 33/1 or wait until closer to the off as they might drift further.

Nulty

Pertemps Final

Tony Martin seems to have a horse in Edeymi who's been laid out for this race but as we all know best laid plans often go awry. In this ultra competitive handicap there is plenty to take on the 10/1 favourite with.

Trustan Times was one of my picks last year and nearly went and collected but for meeting Fingal Bay, Pineau De Re and Southfield Theatre. All of the above mentioned are very high class horses. Trustan carried 6 lbs more that day and had a rating 2lbs higher. He comes into this years race with just as good a chance as last year and can perhaps go a few places closer to winning. This test suits him ideally, he is better on this kind of ground and he is overpriced at 22/1

David Pipe had the winner of the Bumper yesterday and I'm drawn to one of his his apparent second string here Katkeau. Tom Scudamore would supposedly have the choice here as he's ridden Katkeau in all his previous starts but I don't think the prices tell the story of how close these two are. I think Katkeau will enjoy the ground here and Conor O'Farrell won this for Pipe in 2011 on Buena Vista. Katkeau had the beating of 11/1 shot Big Easy at Cheltenham in November and they are evenly matched here based off that run. That suggests to me that Katkeaus price is too big. I wouldn't worry about the better ground as he ran well on good ground oveer shorter at Kempton and this test will suit him much better. 33/1 is a great price. BetPack are offering 33/1 BOG.

I was very keen on seeing Alaivan in this race all year. I was going to have a decent bet on him as I think he wants this longer race on better ground and also the strong pace would suit. He was ballotted out though. Pity.

Trustan Times 1pt ew @ 22/1 & Katkeau 1pt ew @ 33/1

Midlandsman80

Nulty wrote: »

Pertemps Final

Tony Martin seems to have a horse in Edeymi who's been laid out for this race but as we all know best laid plans often go awry. In this ultra competitive handicap there is plenty to take on the 10/1 favourite with.

Trustan Times was one of my picks last year and nearly went and collected but for meeting Fingal Bay, Pineau De Re and Southfield Theatre. All of the above mentioned are very high class horses. Trustan carried 6 lbs more that day and had a rating 2lbs higher. He comes into this years race with just as good a chance as last year and can perhaps go a few places closer to winning. This test suits him ideally, he is better on this kind of ground and he is overpriced at 22/1

David Pipe had the winner of the Bumper yesterday and I'm drawn to one of his his apparent second string here Katkeau. Tom Scudamore would supposedly have the choice here as he's ridden Katkeau in all his previous starts but I don't think the prices tell the story of how close these two are. I think Katkeau will enjoy the ground here and Conor O'Farrell won this for Pipe in 2011 on Buena Vista. Katkeau had the beating of 11/1 shot Big Easy at Cheltenham in November and they are evenly matched here based off that run. That suggests to me that Katkeaus price is too big. I wouldn't worry about the better ground as he ran well on good ground oveer shorter at Kempton and this test will suit him much better. 33/1 is a great price. BetPack are offering 33/1 BOG.

I was very keen on seeing Alaivan in this race all year. I was going to have a decent bet on him as I think he wants this longer race on better ground and also the strong pace would suit. He was ballotted out though. Pity.

Trustan Times 1pt ew @ 22/1 & Katkeau 1pt ew @ 33/1

there seemed to be a lot of money (relative to other horses) laying Trustan times...there was €2k there for him a few min ago at 32/1 and all others (outside top 5) only about €200.. its gone now so either layer took off or everyone following this thread gobbled it up...

Nulty

Brown Advisory and Merriebelle Stable Plate (Grade 3 Handicap Chase)

I took the 12/1 about Montaire a while back cause it was so obvious. He's currently at around 15/2 and could be extremely well handicapped. 15/2 could look silly big by 4.15 this afternoon.

Looking for further value I'm drawn to a few, perhaps too many.

The one that I'm probably most curious about is Hollow Penny. He's won 3 handicaps this term and ran well enough to finish second behind good horses Southfield Theatre Irish Saint in graded races. Southfield Theatre was second in the RSA yesterday. The most interesting thing about Hollow Penny though is his record on better ground. His last two defeats came on softer ground on right hand tracks. He has a tendency to jump left sometimes and now back on good spriing ground and a left handed track he has the potential to perform above his current mark of 142. He potentially has his jumping issues but there is plenty of juice in his price. I'd be happy to take the risk on him progressing at his current odds of 50/1.

Burn And Turn has a fair amount for respect in the market. Her profile matches the ground today and she was unlucky to run into Road To Riches in the Galway Plate last year. She looks suited to these big handicaps judging by that run and others. She looks a little overlooked here at 20/1

This is an ultra competitive race, a case can be made for many more but I think the two mentioned above have a little more potential relative to their price and the rest of the field. I can't help but mention Darna though. He's come back after a long lay off to win first time and ran well for a good part of the race in the December Gold Cup (I backed him that day). At around 33/1 I couldn't put anyone off him.

Nulty

Darna is the one horse in this thread that I hadn't backed in any way unfortunately.

And backed Hollow Penny with StanJames who offered only 4 places. He finished 5th.