Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

Gaspode

Zaph wrote: »

... had a look to see who else is in the group it does very much seem to be a marriage of convenience for all concerned so that they can get some speaking time in the Dáil.

Sums up all the political parties to be fair!

Kiwi_knock

Not sure that it will make much difference to McGuinness, can't see him threatening the fight for the seats but would like to see him perform well.

Surprised there is no Social Democrat candidate in the constituency, would have thought the constituency was fairly ripe for their brand of politics.

AGC

hotmail.com wrote: »

he may be happy just to beat Chambers.

Can't see him getting close.

Larbre34

That's the point isn't it, he is not aligning himself with Ross. The Alliance contains people from across the spectrum and the point of it is the principle of political reform, not social and economic decisions, as such.

Now, whether voters can see past that and disassociate McGuinness from Ross, Quinn and others, politically, is something we wont know till the count is done.

I do think McGuinness coming out and predicting the Tánaiste's demise in the Times was a mistake. He should concentrate on a positive campaign in his own area, as he is so good at and also maximising that FF vote more widely, that disagreed with the Chambers decision.

chucknorris

You know my affiliations, so you can take what I say with a pinch of salt but i'll be as honest as I can. :-)

- The Independent appliance is looking to support the new government as no one party will get an overall majority and it seems all other parties have ruled each other out so there is a case to be made for Independents to support a government.

- There is a sizable amount of candidates in our constituency that have no intention of going in to government and are happy to be sent in to opposition as it's easy to give out, throw stones and achieve absolutely nothing other than tokenism. We see this year on year on year. Someone has to go in to government.

- The Labour party won't be in a position to do it next time around. This is almost certain.

- There was no attack or negative politics on Joan Burton regarding the losing of a seat. We've been out canvassing every day in recent weeks, in different estates and Joan Is not coming up too well on the doors and what's surprising is that this is consistent in Castleknock and Blanchardstown. Different candidates talk and they've all noted exactly the same thing. Again, it;s not an attack, it's an observation.

- @Zaph is correct - it's not a marriage but simply a grouping that can vote whatever way they want to vote. Is anyone here seriously thinking the WHIP system is good for democracy? The only vote they will not go against are ones confidence in the government. We don;t need three elections in 5 years like the early 80s.

- David is going to do well. He has pulled in a lot of support since going Independent (this is on the doors) and he has retained support from plenty of people who would only have ever voted FF in the past (The reason they say is that FF is still irrelevant and not an alternative and they are not happy about the manner in which he was treated considering the strong performances in two by-elections). You may read this and think it is a biased view but I have been honest during the by-elections and i said he would go well on both occasions and that was what i seen on the doors. This time there isn't a door that is not prepared to talk to him. I'm serious and that gives him a chance.

- It seems from the Polls that SF will do well across Dublin. They have always done well elsewhere but not Dublin west. This may change this time it seems - and it seems it is solely down to where Labour's support will go. SF seemed to benefit from the collapse in Labour support in the recent by-election but when electing a government, any support Joan pulls back will be at the expense of SF.

- Regarding Castleknock where the percentage of voters is higher compared to Mulhuddart - FF have done well there in recent bye-elections but always with a poor FG candidate. Leo is not a poor candidate by any means and that means Chambers has to work very hard in his backyard. The question for FF and Chambers is very clear - how much support can they pull in Mulhuddart and Blanchardstown?
He is financially well backed but at 24 years of age it takes years to get the profile that is needed and he is running an expensive PR campaign so it'll be interesting to see what happens in the general election.

- Coppinger is not as popular as Joe Higgins but I still suspect she is safe because Dublin west is a left leaning constituency.

ThisRegard

A government propped up by a bunch of independents. What could possibly go wrong?

chucknorris

ThisRegard wrote: »

A government propped up by a bunch of independents. What could possibly go wrong?

Well you do realise a government can only be brought down by a failure to win a vote of confidence and/or a failure to win a vote on a budget.

All other bills are open season and surely no one has an issue with individual people voting as they wish and not base don what they are told to vote like sheep?

So I agree, what could go wrong? The government would be stable.

holly_johnson

chucknorris wrote: »

Well you do realise a government can only be brought down by a failure to win a vote of confidence and/or a failure to win a vote on a budget.

All other bills are open season and surely no one has an issue with individual people voting as they wish and not base don what they are told to vote like sheep?

So I agree, what could go wrong? The government would be stable.

See, I disagree with this point. I've a somewhat inside view of Govt & I can remember all too well the ****e that went on with independents & FF in the past (Jackie Healy Rae etc). I'd hate to see that crap happening again. While the alliance may be purely for speaking rights etc, he's still signing up with Ross & I for one will never forget his comments about civil servants including that we should all be sacked & are all on crack! I'll find it hard to vote for someone who's aligned with him & other Alliance members who are no angels either!

chucknorris

holly_johnson wrote: »

See, I disagree with this point. I've a somewhat inside view of Govt & I can remember all too well the ****e that went on with independents & FF in the past (Jackie Healy Rae etc). I'd hate to see that crap happening again. While the alliance may be purely for speaking rights etc, he's still signing up with Ross & I for one will never forget his comments about civil servants including that we should all be sacked & are all on crack! I'll find it hard to vote for someone who's aligned with him & other Alliance members who are no angels either!

Ross said that? I wasn't aware and cannot find that anywhere.

FF and Healy Rae is a whole diffident ball game. There will be no deals and no promises and any government has to agree to the charter.

http://www.todayfm.com/Independent-Alliance-launches-10point-charter-for-government

jack presley

chucknorris wrote: »

Ross said that? I wasn't aware and cannot find that anywhere.

FF and Healy Rae is a whole diffident ball game. There will be no deals and no promises and any government has to agree to the charter.

http://www.todayfm.com/Independent-Alliance-launches-10point-charter-for-government

Is there anywhere where those 10 points are explained in more detail. Using words like "addressing the needs", "overhaul" and "reform" are pretty meaningless in a vacuum. How? Why? When? This is what we need to know

Edit - how do we know there'll be no Healy-Rae type deals? Where does it state that?

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

You know my affiliations, so you can take what I say with a pinch of salt but i'll be as honest as I can. :-)

- The Independent appliance is looking to support the new government as no one party will get an overall majority and it seems all other parties have ruled each other out so there is a case to be made for Independents to support a government.

- There is a sizable amount of candidates in our constituency that have no intention of going in to government and are happy to be sent in to opposition as it's easy to give out, throw stones and achieve absolutely nothing other than tokenism. We see this year on year on year. Someone has to go in to government.

- The Labour party won't be in a position to do it next time around. This is almost certain.

- There was no attack or negative politics on Joan Burton regarding the losing of a seat. We've been out canvassing every day in recent weeks, in different estates and Joan Is not coming up too well on the doors and what's surprising is that this is consistent in Castleknock and Blanchardstown. Different candidates talk and they've all noted exactly the same thing. Again, it;s not an attack, it's an observation.

- @Zaph is correct - it's not a marriage but simply a grouping that can vote whatever way they want to vote. Is anyone here seriously thinking the WHIP system is good for democracy? The only vote they will not go against are ones confidence in the government. We don;t need three elections in 5 years like the early 80s.

- David is going to do well. He has pulled in a lot of support since going Independent (this is on the doors) and he has retained support from plenty of people who would only have ever voted FF in the past (The reason they say is that FF is still irrelevant and not an alternative and they are not happy about the manner in which he was treated considering the strong performances in two by-elections). You may read this and think it is a biased view but I have been honest during the by-elections and i said he would go well on both occasions and that was what i seen on the doors. This time there isn't a door that is not prepared to talk to him. I'm serious and that gives him a chance.

- It seems from the Polls that SF will do well across Dublin. They have always done well elsewhere but not Dublin west. This may change this time it seems - and it seems it is solely down to where Labour's support will go. SF seemed to benefit from the collapse in Labour support in the recent by-election but when electing a government, any support Joan pulls back will be at the expense of SF.

- Regarding Castleknock where the percentage of voters is higher compared to Mulhuddart - FF have done well there in recent bye-elections but always with a poor FG candidate. Leo is not a poor candidate by any means and that means Chambers has to work very hard in his backyard. The question for FF and Chambers is very clear - how much support can they pull in Mulhuddart and Blanchardstown?
He is financially well backed but at 24 years of age it takes years to get the profile that is needed and he is running an expensive PR campaign so it'll be interesting to see what happens in the general election.

- Coppinger is not as popular as Joe Higgins but I still suspect she is safe because Dublin west is a left leaning constituency.

Excellent post Chuck and agree with a lot of that. I would hope that McGuinness sees any alliance as a possible way to government and not just a Boyd Barrett type stone thrower from the opposition.

Personally I think Leo and Donnolly are safe with Chambers getting a seat comfortably. I see Burton taking the 4th seat with Coppinger missing out. She has no where near the respect that Joe Higgins has in the area and is too vocal as an anti everything. I would see McGuinness polling better then her and giving it a good run.

chucknorris

jack presley wrote: »

Is there anywhere where those 10 points are explained in more detail. Using words like "addressing the needs", "overhaul" and "reform" are pretty meaningless in a vacuum. How? Why? When? This is what we need to know

Edit - how do we know there'll be no Healy-Rae type deals? Where does it state that?

Yes there is, I'll get you a link to them. It's quite detailed.

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

Excellent post Chuck and agree with a lot of that. I would hope that McGuinness sees any alliance as a possible way to government and not just a Boyd Barrett type stone thrower from the opposition.

Personally I think Leo and Donnolly are safe with Chambers getting a seat comfortably. I see Burton taking the 4th seat with Coppinger missing out. She has no where near the respect that Joe Higgins has in the area and is too vocal as an anti everything. I would see McGuinness polling better then her and giving it a good run.

I'm not so sure about Chambers. yes he will get the FF vote, however that vote was at 16.% for Brian Lenihan in the last GE and Although David managed 21% and 18% respectively, the fact that it came back to 18% tells you what you need to know about FF in Dublin generally.

The overall Dublin support level has remained steady at 11% and 11% of the vote will not get a seat. Yes in Dublin west there maybe more support but Brian Lenihan scraped through on the last seat with 16.5% and although Jack will do well in Castleknock, i don't think anyone knows if he can command the support and votes needed from Corduff, Mulhuddart, Hartstown, Huntstown, Clonee and Clonsilla. Lenihan would not have got in without that vote.

Personally I also feel a candidate for a general election is treated differently than in a local election. A candidate to represent the entire community has to have some sort of life experience and although there is serious money behind him - people see through a lot that when electing a government.

I'm not saying he will and I'm not saying he won't get elected - what I'm saying is that there is a lot of unknown factors that question where the certainty is coming from. You can be sure the left sided candidates will be only too willing to highlight his lack of experience.

I see this as the most bizarre and unpredictable election in Dublin ever. Even Dublin west was easy to predict with FF FG Labour and socialist guaranteed a seat. I think some are underestimating the Socialists and transfers will be unusually key in this election.

chucknorris

jack presley wrote: »

Is there anywhere where those 10 points are explained in more detail. Using words like "addressing the needs", "overhaul" and "reform" are pretty meaningless in a vacuum. How? Why? When? This is what we need to know

Edit - how do we know there'll be no Healy-Rae type deals? Where does it state that?

Here you go Jack.

http://www.independentalliance.ie/charter-for-change/

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

Personally I also feel a candidate for a general election is treated differently than in a local election. A candidate to represent the entire community has to have some sort of life experience and although there is serious money behind him - people see through a lot that when electing a government.

I'm not saying he will and I'm not saying he won't get elected - what I'm saying is that there is a lot of unknown factors that question where the certainty is coming from. You can be sure the left sided candidates will be only too willing to highlight his lack of experience.

I see this as the most bizarre and unpredictable election in Dublin ever. Even Dublin west was easy to predict with FF FG Labour and socialist guaranteed a seat. I think some are underestimating the Socialists and transfers will be unusually key in this election.

I know we have had the experience debate before but I would be willing to give him a chance, yes local is very different to national but he has involved himself in many areas locally. Don't forget David was that inexperienced soldier not too long ago;)

I would personally like to see them both elected, youth would be very welcome in the Dáil, the current crop make it look like a care home at times.

Dublin West has always had the strong socialist vote but a massive % of that was down to Higgins as a person and how he has conducted himself throughout his political career. I have always enjoyed listening to him, with Coppinger I switch off.

ThisRegard

chucknorris wrote: »

Well you do realise a government can only be brought down by a failure to win a vote of confidence and/or a failure to win a vote on a budget.

All other bills are open season and surely no one has an issue with individual people voting as they wish and not base don what they are told to vote like sheep?

So I agree, what could go wrong? The government would be stable.

You're looking at it from a purely governmental point of view, which is the wrong way to look at it.

You need to look at it from the point of view of the regular person on the street.

Everything can go wrong with a government propped up by a bunch of independents. Just take a look at the FF/gombeen independent years. Money being back handed for all sorts of local projects the country over to keep the independents sweet.

What good was that to anyone other than those living in their localities? A stable government using the public purse for selfish projects is not a good government.

AGC

ThisRegard wrote: »

You're looking at it from a purely governmental point of view, which is the wrong way to look at it.

You need to look at it from the point of view of the regular person on the street.

Everything can go wrong with a government propped up by a bunch of independents. Just take a look at the FF/gombeen independent years. Money been back handed to all sorts of local projects the country over to keep the independents sweet.

What good was that to anyone other than those living in their localities? A stable government using the public purse for selfish projects is not a good government.

Do you not answer your own question there? Localised politics is and always has been one of the major issues with elections in this country. People do not see past what there local representative will do for them - These are the regular people on the street

chucknorris

ThisRegard wrote: »

You're looking at it from a purely governmental point of view, which is the wrong way to look at it.

You need to look at it from the point of view of the regular person on the street.

Everything can go wrong with a government propped up by a bunch of independents. Just take a look at the FF/gombeen independent years. Money been back handed to all sorts of local projects the country over to keep the independents sweet.

What good was that to anyone other than those living in their localities? A stable government using the public purse for selfish projects is not a good government.

Jackie Heally Rae was FF gene pool. He was actually Independent FF

ThisRegard

AGC wrote: »

Do you not answer your own question there? Localised politics is and always has been one of the major issues with elections in this country. People do not see past what there local representative will do for them - These are the regular people on the street

No, I didn't. Getting a few roads built around Tralee. What good is that to anyone else around the country when it comes to national issues such as healthcare, policing, education, etc?

ThisRegard

chucknorris wrote: »

Jackie Heally Rae was FF gene pool. He was actually Independent FF

Tread lightly, where is McGuinness from

Larbre34

Chambers won't get in. FF's only hope was David McG and they went another road.

Leo, Coppinger, Donnelly and a 4-day long bun fight count between McGuinness and An Tánaiste.

AGC

ThisRegard wrote: »

No, I didn't. Getting a few roads built around Tralee. What good is that to anyone else around the country when it comes to national issues such as healthcare, policing, education, etc?

I am not disagreeing with you at all, it is no benefit but it is what a lot of people look at when voting

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

I know we have had the experience debate before but I would be willing to give him a chance, yes local is very different to national but he has involved himself in many areas locally. Don't forget David was that inexperienced soldier not too long ago

I would personally like to see them both elected, youth would be very welcome in the Dáil, the current crop make it look like a care home at times.

Dublin West has always had the strong socialist vote but a massive % of that was down to Higgins as a person and how he has conducted himself throughout his political career. I have always enjoyed listening to him, with Coppinger I switch off.

Spot on, but with respect to David and all of the other candidates, they have experience.

David himself is an elected representative 7 years, has worked since he is 16 and has a mortgage and a child and balances a part time councillor position n top of a full time job. No big deal but that's just the reality like many people.

Jack is on the council just over 1 year and has never had a taxable job apart from that part time Councillor position. He states he is a medical graduate but he is not. He pulled out of his studies when he became a Councillor.
He lives at home with his parents and is for all intents and purposes living a very comfortable life. That's nothing to be ashamed off, but again it's just the reality. It;s a far different reality to the people he hopes to get a vote from.
You may say, well so what, but here's a lad who attacks Varadkar on medical aspects, where LEO is a fully qualified Doctor who actually completed and passed and then worked in that area. Do you see how someone like Varadkar could single him out for his lack of experience and/or commitment to one thing over another?

Age is not the point, but experience is. Not just political experience but life experience. Vincent Browne will have no hesitation in asking about it, so please don't view this as an attack - it's a reality.

chucknorris

ThisRegard wrote: »

Tread lightly, where is McGuinness from

I hear ya but, David McGuinness's family has no political affiliations at all and never had.

When FF and FG poeple talk about Gene pool, it means their father and mother where FF or FG and their parents before them.

David paddles his own canoe and it was tough in fairness :mad:

Larbre34

To paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen

'Councillor Chambers, I knew Brian Lenihan. Brian Lenihan was a friend of mine and Councillor.....You're no Brian Lenihan'

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

Spot on, but with respect to David and all of the other candidates, they have experience.

David himself is an elected representative 7 years, has worked since he is 16 and has a mortgage and a child and balances a part time councillor position n top of a full time job. No big deal but that's just the reality like many people.

Jack is on the council just over 1 year and has never had a taxable job apart from that part time Councillor position. He states he is a medical graduate but he is not. He pulled out of his studies when he became a Councillor.
He lives at home with his parents and is for all intents and purposes living a very comfortable life. That's nothing to be ashamed off, but again it's just the reality. It;s a far different reality to the people he hopes to get a vote from.
You may say, well so what, but here's a lad who attacks Varadkar on medical aspects, where LEO is a fully qualified Doctor who actually completed and passed and then worked in that area. Do you see how someone like Varadkar could single him out for his lack of experience and/or commitment to one thing over another?

Age is not the point, but experience is. Not just political experience but life experience. Vincent Browne will have no hesitation in asking about it, so please don't view this as an attack - it's a reality.

I agree - And I am not coming out all guns blazing here for Chambers I just think he will do well and will have no problem if he is elected. He is very careful in what he says but I agree he needs to stay away from any form of 'attack' on Leo. Allowing stupid articles like the one about Leo heading off on holidays is pointless and will do him more harm than good - It is those comments where he lacks experience

chucknorris

Larbre34 wrote: »

To paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen

'Councillor Chambers, I knew Brian Lenihan. Brian Lenihan was a friend of mine and Councillor.....You're no Brian Lenihan'

This is also true, whether you knew it or not. He actually never met Brian Lenihan. He came on the scene to help in the 2011 by-election as his father is the chairman of FF in Dublin west and the rest as they is history. :eek:

I could tell you some stories about how the local membership seen David - let's put it this way - some of them never, ever talk to him - EVER.

Larbre34

I didn't know it, but I had heard as much through a couple of national level FF folk I went to college with. Many FFers nationally are bewildered that Chambers is the candidate.

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

I agree - And I am not coming out all guns blazing here for Chambers I just think he will do well and will have no problem if he is elected. He is very careful in what he says but I agree he needs to stay away from any form of 'attack' on Leo. Allowing stupid articles like the one about Leo heading off on holidays is pointless and will do him more harm than good - It is those comments where he lacks experience

That came up on doors.

People on doors said that the story reads in the Indo that Jack's father, who he himself is a senior consultant, was on the same plane as Varadkar, and as he himself is the chair of FF, felt it a great way to get exposure.

The article backfired because Jack then had to admit in the same article that the crisis also warranted that all senior consultants should remain in the country also and that looked terrible in the article. Badly calculated.

They have hired 'Q4 public relations' to run their campaign in order to get exposure and you see it on the bus stops etc, but if the Q4 company felt that article was good exposure, they were badly mistaken and it did not go unnoticed.

AGC

RTE have launched their election page

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/dublin-west/