Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

Grudaire

So things are already heating up in Dublin West in perpetration for the General Election.

An interesting constituency to live in, while Varadkar(Fine Gael), Coppinger (Socialists) and Donnelly (Sinn Féin) should comfortably be elected there will be a tight battle between Fianna Fáil and Joan Burton (Labour) for the final seat.

Also running are:
Catherine Noone for Fine Gael to try to get a second seat (not confirmed)
Roderic O'Gorman for the greens who hopes to build on a good bye election result

A more imminent talking point is the Fianna Fail selection convention, which is making national news:
There’s a big row over the battle to win back Brian Lenihan’s old seat for Fianna Fáil http://jrnl.ie/1955516 via TheJournal.ie

(As is custom I'll declare that I canvass for the greens - so I have a bias for a very outside hope in Dublin West :-) )

athtrasna

Fine Gael convention hasn't happened yet. Noone is far from selected!

Grudaire

athtrasna wrote: »

Fine Gael convention hasn't happened yet. Noone is far from selected!

Oops!

Who is up for nomination do you know?

athtrasna

Grudaire wrote: »

Oops!

Who is up for nomination do you know?

I haven't heard any talk of a convention not to mind candidates and I know a few true blues in the area.

Morag

gods really it's next year, lest get the Marriage Equality referendum over and done with 1st.

athtrasna

Morag wrote: »

gods really it's next year, lest get the Marriage Equality referendum over and done with 1st.

Fianna Fáil convention is this week. No guarantee there won't be a snap election, Parties are getting prepared.

I'm just glad Joe Higgins is retiring, him and Coppinger are two socialists too many for my liking and in no way represent my opinions.

January

I thought David McGuinness was picked for FF already?

Morag

Grudaire wrote: »

A more imminent talking point is the Fianna Fail selection convention, which is making national news:
There’s a big row over the battle to win back Brian Lenihan’s old seat for Fianna Fáil http://jrnl.ie/1955516 via TheJournal.ie

tbh **** this rubbish of the Lenihan seat, I have zero time for that sort of passing of seats in families and I would like to to see ff never get another seat in this area.

Leo may get back in and I don't think Joan will, would be nice to see Rodrick get a seat.

athtrasna

January wrote: »

I thought David McGuinness was picked for FF already?

Nope! http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-f%C3%A1il-row-over-delegates-in-dublin-west-ahead-of-candidate-selection-1.2113185

Grudaire

Morag wrote: »

tbh **** this rubbish of the Lenihan seat, I have zero time for that sort of passing of seats in families and I would like to to see ff never get another seat in this area.

Leo may get back in and I don't think Joan will, would be nice to see Rodrick get a seat.

There's a realistic chance that FF don't get a seat if enough Labour voters show up -

I have heard on the doorsteps people saying that they would be voting for Lenihans FF replacement, so while it's rubbish it's kinda true.

Larbre34

I would rule out both FF and Labour.

Any half-coherent campaign by an anti-water charge candidate, more radical than either Coppinger or SF, will win a seat.

Nationally Labour will come in with <5 seats, and Joan wont be one of them.

spooky donkey

yes ill be voting anti water, that rules out most of the afore mentioned parties.....

athtrasna

spooky donkey wrote: »

yes ill be voting anti water, that rules out most of the afore mentioned parties.....

Personally I'm pro-water, though I prefer the stuff that comes out of the tap to the stuff that comes from the sky :P

Murt10

I was polled outside Tesco's about two weeks ago and given a mock ballot paper for Dublin 15 to fill in, as I would in an immediate election.

After I completed it, I asked the pollster how things were going. Varadker and Burton were polling well here, but in other parts of the Constituency, Coppinger, SF and the hard Left were doing well.

FF were a complete washout everywhere. Roderick O'Gorman, who I gave my No 1 to, was picking up votes in all areas of the constituency.

Go Roderick Go!!!!

Grudaire

Larbre34 wrote: »

I would rule out both FF and Labour.

Any half-coherent campaign by an anti-water charge candidate, more radical than either Coppinger or SF, will win a seat.

Nationally Labour will come in with <5 seats, and Joan wont be one of them.

Realistically though there's two seats for FF/FG from the Castleknock, Navan Road votes. And two for left leaning candidates SF/SP - Joan could get in, but it will involve squeezing past FF, and is unlikely.

It's wishful thinking to say there's ththree far left wing seats in constituency.

Larbre34

I don't wish for it at all.

I do however believe that with Labour down in the margin of error, the transfer friendliness of the centrist vote can no longer be relied on. In fact a galvanised left wing vote may turn the tap off on it altogether.

The best thing Fine Gael could do for Labour is to put Leo up as a sole candidate. They are dreaming if they think he might drag in a second seat in a 4 seater with this social profile.

Pat Dunne

Grudaire wrote: »

Roderic O'Gorman for the greens who hippies to build on a good bye election result

Love the Freudian slip

chucknorris

I won't make any predictions until the FF convention is completed tomorrow evening. :cool:

Gaspode

Really -a General Election thread already? Do you not have anything better to be talking about!

As with the previous Election discussion threads, we would expect anyone with connections (including family/personal friend/canvasser) to any candidate to declare this in the interests of full disclosure. Should we discover that you have failed to do so you can expect a ban from this forum.
Any personal attacks will not be tolerated.

Gaspode

Grudaire wrote: »

So things are already heating up in Dublin West in perpetration for the General Election.

To someone not involved in the politics tomfoolery and who generally has zero interest in politics can you define what 'heating up in Dublin West' means?

Grudaire

Gaspode wrote: »

To someone not involved in the politics tomfoolery and who generally has zero interest in politics can you define what 'heating up in Dublin West' means?

Mainly Fianna Fáil effectively tearing themselves apart.

I've moved to the Navan Road (a new part of the Dublin West constituency) and campaigning had truly started. Regular leaflets already coming in from Joan, Varadkar and perhaps presumptuously from Jack Chambers..

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

Mainly Fianna Fáil effectively tearing themselves apart.

I've moved to the Navan Road (a new part of the Dublin West constituency) and campaigning had truly started. Regular leaflets already coming in from Joan, Varadkar and perhaps presumptuously from Jack Chambers..

Not at all. It's local democracy. 8 people who live in Hollystown and who were always in Dublin west, were moved to Dublin Fingal after the boundary change, unbeknownst to them, and after repeated requests for over 15 months to stay in Dublin west.

The convention is right beside Hollystown tomorrow night and those people felt disenfranchised to find they never received their invitation to vote.

ps: I'm a FF canvasser and I have canvassed the Navan road for the last three weeks. I suspect the general election will be in September or October.

ThisRegard

I think the support for the left is over estimated and no bigger than previously. Relatively speaking I think there have been very few protests against the installation of water metres, in my estate I didn't see one person protest.

Godge

A good place to start is with previous election results.

Here are the first preference results from the last local elections (I will see can I get a full count as the transfer pattern was interesting).

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2014L&cons=35

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2014L&cons=186


Here is the full Dublin West 2014 by-election.

http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2011B&cons=112&ref=129

Donnelly (SF) tops the poll but finishes third behind Coppinger.

Here is the first preference 2011 by-election which saw Nulty get elected.

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011B&cons=112

Again, if I can find the full count I will put it up.

Finally, here is the February 2011 full count from the last general election:

http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2011&cons=112&ref=


Plenty of information to digest. If we can get the full counts, some analysis of transfer patterns can be done. I am sure that the political parties will have done some of that themselves, but the activists may be slow to share it.

P.S. I am not a member of any party, at the moment my intention is vote Roderic No.1 and transfer to FG and then Lab. That may change as it has before.

chucknorris

ThisRegard wrote: »

I think the support for the left is over estimated and no bigger than previously. Relatively speaking I think there have been very few protests against the installation of water metres, in my estate I didn't see one person protest.

Dublin west is left leaning for sure. More left leaning people are more determined to vote than previously. That's not a bad thing at all.

chucknorris

Godge wrote: »

Here is the full Dublin West 2014 by-election.

http://electionsireland.org/counts.c...ns=112&ref=129

Donnelly (SF) tops the poll but finishes third behind Coppinger.

3rd behind McGuinness and Coppinger.

The David Hall factor took a 1000 votes away from Fianna Fail last year. Had he not run, FF would have taken that by-election seat.

Larbre34

I do hope some issue or event forces the general election very soon.

By their own admission, the Government are not going to touch any potential hot potatoes ahead of the election for fear of an Irish Water style crisis, so they wont regularise surrogacy or sell Aer Lingus or do anything of consequence. Instead they are selling inertia as stability and a Country in as much bother as ours deserves much better.

chucknorris

Larbre34 wrote: »

I do hope some issue or event forces the general election very soon.

By their own admission, the Government are not going to touch any potential hot potatoes ahead of the election for fear of an Irish Water style crisis, so they wont regularise surrogacy or sell Aer Lingus or do anything of consequence. Instead they are selling inertia as stability and a Country in as much bother as ours deserves much better.

I think it's clear they are doing for the Autumn. When spring is over, summer is a quiet time for politics. in fact it's non existent.

They have already started the promises and will hit an election in Autumn before anything else blows up.

Fine Gael will do well in the GE. labour I would say will be wiped out.

Godge

chucknorris wrote: »

3rd behind McGuinness and Coppinger.

The David Hall factor took a 1000 votes away from Fianna Fail last year. Had he not run, FF would have taken that by-election seat.

That is a theory.

Another theory is had FG run anyone other than Coghlan, McGuinness wouldn't have been anywhere.

It will be interesting to see who FF pick for the general election. With Chambers, Mary Fitzpatrick and possibly a Lenihan in the mix, McGuinness might have a running mate. There may well have to be a female candidate on the ticket for gender balance which would rule Chambers out this time.

chucknorris

Godge wrote: »

It will be interesting to see who FF pick for the general election. With Chambers, Mary Fitzpatrick and possibly a Lenihan in the mix, McGuinness might have a running mate. There may well have to be a female candidate on the ticket for gender balance which would rule Chambers out this time.

None of what you say is or can be true.

There is already a decision that Dublin west will be a one candidate election in terms of FF.

Mary Fitz is not running in Dublin west and neither is anyone from the Lenihan family.

It's quite simple really. The local Dublin west FF members will decide tomorrow who'll represented FF in the G.E. It'll be either McGuinness or Chambers.

AlanG

Its hard to see anything other than an election late next spring as:

- Labour will want time to get back up in the polls.
- Everyone wants to give Syriza a chance to fail - Gerry Adams is already distancing himself from them. If Greece leaves the euro SF and the hard left here will be lucky to get 15%. If Syriza roll into line, Noonan will take the AAA apart in debates.
- The Gov has money to give out in the budget and that wont hit home until January. (especially if they sell Aer Lingus)
- FG want to control the 1916 celebrations.
- Unemployment is actually dropping.

Grudaire

chucknorris wrote: »

Not at all. It's local democracy. 8 people who live in Hollystown and who were always in Dublin west, were moved to Dublin Fingal after the boundary change, unbeknownst to them, and after repeated requests for over 15 months to stay in Dublin west.

I would consider Chambers effectively threatening legal action against FF pretty dramatic..

Also allegedly McGuinness's election manager tweeted that they'd be running either way.. Also pretty definite statement.

Godge

chucknorris wrote: »

None of what you say is or can be true.

There is already a decision that Dublin west will be a one candidate election in terms of FF.

Mary Fitz is not running in Dublin west and neither is anyone from the Lenihan family.

It's quite simple really. The local Dublin west FF members will decide tomorrow who'll represented FF in the G.E. It'll be either McGuinness or Chambers.

Have seen this before.

Local constituency members select one candidate and party adds on another centrally.

The gender quotas mean that at least 30% of a party's candidates must be female. Selecting McGuinness tomorrow will allow FF to add a woman from the other end of the constituency with the excuse of having to meet the gender quota because the other selection conventions didn't do enough.

Adrian Kavanagh lists three possibilities for Dublin West in the attached interesting analysis.

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/01/15/fianna-fails-markiewicz-report-where-could-fianna-fail-run-female-candidates/

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

I would consider Chambers effectively threatening legal action against FF pretty dramatic..

Also allegedly McGuinness's election manager tweeted that they'd be running either way.. Also pretty definite statement.

I've seen that being peddled myself. It's rubbish. McGuinness has no campaign manager as there is no campaign, yet.

The tweet was a wind-up three months ago about the same sex referendum, but don't let that get in the way of a good yarn. .

Grudaire

Just tweeted by thejournal journalist;
@msaoife I’m told that none of the Hollystown 9 voted in Dublin Fingal selection convention.

I wonder does that mean McGuinness has the numbers!?

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

Just tweeted by thejournal journalist;
@msaoife I’m told that none of the Hollystown 9 voted in Dublin Fingal selection convention.

I wonder does that mean McGuinness has the numbers!?

Of course they didn't. It was requested on three occasions in the last year to be automatically kept in Dublin west as their Cumann was originally in an area that was literally been divided by the boundary commission.

Hollystown is in Dublin west. Why select a candidate in Dublin Fingal when you're going to be voting in Dublin west in the next general election.

Had they been disenfranchised with their stated wish to vote in Dublin west, that in its self would have been gerrymandering.

PS: That Tweet is by Joan Burton's daughter.

Arciphel

I found this tweet by her to be even more illuminating...

chucknorris

Arciphel wrote: »

I found this tweet by her to be even more illuminating...

'If" being the operative word.

Grudaire

chucknorris wrote: »

Of course they didn't. It was requested on three occasions in the last year to be automatically kept in Dublin west as their Cumann was originally in an area that was literally been divided by the boundary commission.

Hollystown is in Dublin west. Why select a candidate in Dublin Fingal when you're going to be voting in Dublin west in the next general election.

Had they been disenfranchised with their stated wish to vote in Dublin west, that in its self would have been gerrymandering.

PS: That Tweet is by Joan Burton's daughter.

Totally quoted the wrong tweet..
"Fianna Fáíl HQ upholds decision to move nine party members from Dublin Fingal to Dublin West ahead of tonight’s selection convention"

Godge

http://www.thejournal.ie/jack-chamber-brian-lenihan-1960101-Feb2015/


Well, well, well.

Jack Chambers? That puts the cat among the pigeons.

A number of questions.

Will FF HQ add McGuinnness?
Can they afford two male candidates in a constituency they could only get one seat max?
If they run a female as a second, to up the quota, all the likely females are from the Chambers end of the constituency so where will they get one from - unless Mary Fitzpatrick?
Will McGuinness run as an independent?


For the wider contest, assuming FF don't run anyone else, it is Donnelly and Coppinger for the two Mulhuddart seats, with Varadkar a certainty for the Castleknock end with Burton, O'Gorman, Chambers and an independent (Hall or mcGuinness if they run) all in the scrap for the last seat.

Edit: Don't know how the smiley got in the title, wasn't meant to be there.

athtrasna

Surprised and not surprised at the same time. McGuinness has put all the hard work in over the last decade and has been screwed over by his own Party. Yes there's the argument that he had two chances but the fact is, Santa Claus could have run for FF in the last two contests and still wouldn't have taken the seat. Just when memories are starting to fade (average voter's memory appears to be 4-5 years according to recent election results) along comes the squeaky clean new kid on the block.

I'm not a left leaning voter and vote tactically against the left in elections (I think the left are over represented in the Dáil for this Constituency) but Chambers is costing FF a preference from me. Squeaky clean, no connection to the past. But no connection to the voter, less than a year on the council and he's the Messiah? Thanks but no thanks!

Kiwi_knock

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-f%C3%A1il-select-jack-chambers-to-contest-general-election-in-dublin-west-1.2117612

“There’s no doubt about it. There’s a class divide in Fianna Fáil and I’m clearly on the wrong side of the tracks. That was clearly evident in Dublin West.
“I am now doing a lot of soul searching and Fianna Fáil and me may part ways.”

Hardly the united front FF would want going into an election. Not sure if it means that McGuinness will go as an independent but I say he will have his supporters after the perceived way FF treated him. I say FF HQ got what they wanted, a Lenihan replacement. Chambers youth and relative inexperience will count against him, a strong independent candidate has a great chance of taking a seat.

Larbre34

McGuinness should certainly go as an independent. Leaving Fianna Fáil will only go in his favour.

January

The only reason ever stopping me voting for McGuinness was his links to Ff. If he ran as an independent he would most probably get my no. 1.

chucknorris

That's politics for you. It's ruthless.

David will need to take stock of a few things before making any rash decisions. Running in a general election is not only demanding, it's also expensive.

Essentially the work he does and did day to day since he was elected to the local council in 2009, at the age of 22, was basically him and him alone from a day to day point of view. In the by-election last year, none of the Castleknock FF membership (Or the Deerpark mafia as we know them :-), would assist the by-election campaign. They played the long game, by only canvassing and dropping leaflets for JC in the locals, with the hope that a strong enough vote in the Castleknock LEA would set-up a situation that happened last night at convention.

What occurred last night is something that was feared might happen.

There was and still is an opinion that Humpty Dumpty could run in castleknock for FF and command 2500 to 3000 votes. Outside Castleknock is a different proposition and that's where the real battle ground will be won and lost.

Personally I think a strong Independent would be in demand in large swaths of Dublin west, so who knows.

Zaph

I wouldn't be an FF voter, but I do recognise the amount of work that McGuinness has put in locally and it's disappointing to see the efforts of a local candidate being ignored like this. Chambers hasn't been around long enough to build up a track record, so it's baffling to see him getting the nod. Like January, if he ran as an independent McGuinness would be someone I'd strongly consider voting for.

chucknorris

Zaph wrote: »

I wouldn't be an FF voter, but I do recognise the amount of work that McGuinness has put in locally and it's disappointing to see the efforts of a local candidate being ignored like this. Chambers hasn't been around long enough to build up a track record, so it's baffling to see him getting the nod. Like January, if he ran as an independent McGuinness would be someone I'd strongly consider voting for.

Appreciate those comments.

The other lad is in college, but you must understand, his father is the top pain consultant in the country and the chairman of FF in Dublin west, so you see how the Deerpark mafia operate. :cool:

It wasn't a vote for the lad, it was a vote for the chairman.

Gaspode

I know I should be more interested in politics but that sort of crap ^^ reminds me why I'm not.
Nepotism, backhanders, backstabbing, lies and deceit are part and parcel of the 'game' politicos play, and see as the norm.
Then we're expected to trust these goons to run the country? There are not many jobs out there where the candidates have no training to do the job, no qualifications are expected of them, and if they make a balls of it (which they generally do) there are no consequences for them. Even the ones with a known track record of messing up or taking bribes can still be put up for election. And yet being a TD supposed to be the one of the most important jobs in the country?

The way I see it, it doesn't matter who is in government, they don't give two hoots about me or this country, they're there to line their own pockets and sort out their buddies/family as well. Nothing changes when the government changes so picking faces on a ballot sheet may as well be done blindfolded from what I've seen since I started voting in the 80s.

BTW, I'm only reading this thread because I'm a mod here - I know it's of great interest to a lot of you, but it's just getting me annoyed!

chucknorris

The one positive about last nights result is that it is a burden off the family that David is not under the FF banner.

None of his family are from ANY political lineage. None of them were even registered to vote last night, when they could have been easily lumped in to boost votes. He didn't

He has the lowest claim for any expenses in Fingal co co in the last 6 years and deals with people every day from every part of the constituency. No disrespect to the others, but very few operate outside of their own support base.

So generally there has to be a demand for a middle of the road, all rounder.

Arciphel

Behind the scenes I would say that he is delighted, now he can say that he is running as an Independent and won't have to put up with the negative FF sentiment on the doorsteps, but if I was him I wouldn't be playing the victim too much.

One thing that I was surprised about was that the margin of the victory for Chambers was 2:1 - "Mr Chambers is understood to have received 88 out of the almost 130 eligible votes, with Mr McGuinness trailing with 48 votes." Now that to me sounds like there has been for a while a knowledge that they were never going to back McGuinness to be the candidate in the elections.


The stuff about Castleknock mafia etc is all pure hyperbole however - candidates in Mulhuddart use this line all the time, "vote for me, shur why would you vote for the lads in Castleknock". The hard done by lines about being from the wrong side of the tracks etc as an attempt to get some support also rankle with me, if you are good enough then it doesn't matter where you from.

Correct me if I am wrong but as I understand it David no longer works in the Corduff area and no longer lives there either, now the fact that he has done a lot of work in the area and represents the people there is fine - but I think nowadays people want more from their TDs than just parish pump politics, that is what county councillors are for.

The stuff about the daddy doesn't surprise me in the least, Ireland in 2015 still the same as it ever was... would now fully expect McGuinness to capture a higher vote as an independent and get a seat.

Toto Wolfcastle

Pity. I'm not generally a FF voter but I voted for McGuinness last time around and would vote for him again. He seems decent and hard working and comes across as someone who (as far as I can see) is in politics for the right reasons. He's the only politician I've ever contacted over something (something small) and I was impressed with his response.

Chambers, on the other hand, has proven himself in no way to me. He just doesn't have any experience and as a result won't be getting my vote.

I think it's a mistake on FF's part.