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Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

Grudaire

So things are already heating up in Dublin West in perpetration for the General Election.

An interesting constituency to live in, while Varadkar(Fine Gael), Coppinger (Socialists) and Donnelly (Sinn Féin) should comfortably be elected there will be a tight battle between Fianna Fáil and Joan Burton (Labour) for the final seat.

Also running are:
Catherine Noone for Fine Gael to try to get a second seat (not confirmed)
Roderic O'Gorman for the greens who hopes to build on a good bye election result

A more imminent talking point is the Fianna Fail selection convention, which is making national news:
There’s a big row over the battle to win back Brian Lenihan’s old seat for Fianna Fáil http://jrnl.ie/1955516 via TheJournal.ie

(As is custom I'll declare that I canvass for the greens - so I have a bias for a very outside hope in Dublin West :-) )

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athtrasna

Fine Gael convention hasn't happened yet. Noone is far from selected!

Grudaire

athtrasna wrote: »

Fine Gael convention hasn't happened yet. Noone is far from selected!

Oops!

Who is up for nomination do you know?

athtrasna

Grudaire wrote: »

Oops!

Who is up for nomination do you know?

I haven't heard any talk of a convention not to mind candidates and I know a few true blues in the area.

Morag

gods really it's next year, lest get the Marriage Equality referendum over and done with 1st.

athtrasna

Morag wrote: »

gods really it's next year, lest get the Marriage Equality referendum over and done with 1st.

Fianna Fáil convention is this week. No guarantee there won't be a snap election, Parties are getting prepared.

I'm just glad Joe Higgins is retiring, him and Coppinger are two socialists too many for my liking and in no way represent my opinions.

January

I thought David McGuinness was picked for FF already?

Morag

Grudaire wrote: »

A more imminent talking point is the Fianna Fail selection convention, which is making national news:
There’s a big row over the battle to win back Brian Lenihan’s old seat for Fianna Fáil http://jrnl.ie/1955516 via TheJournal.ie

tbh **** this rubbish of the Lenihan seat, I have zero time for that sort of passing of seats in families and I would like to to see ff never get another seat in this area.

Leo may get back in and I don't think Joan will, would be nice to see Rodrick get a seat.

athtrasna

January wrote: »

I thought David McGuinness was picked for FF already?

Nope! http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-f%C3%A1il-row-over-delegates-in-dublin-west-ahead-of-candidate-selection-1.2113185

Grudaire

Morag wrote: »

tbh **** this rubbish of the Lenihan seat, I have zero time for that sort of passing of seats in families and I would like to to see ff never get another seat in this area.

Leo may get back in and I don't think Joan will, would be nice to see Rodrick get a seat.

There's a realistic chance that FF don't get a seat if enough Labour voters show up -

I have heard on the doorsteps people saying that they would be voting for Lenihans FF replacement, so while it's rubbish it's kinda true.

Larbre34

I would rule out both FF and Labour.

Any half-coherent campaign by an anti-water charge candidate, more radical than either Coppinger or SF, will win a seat.

Nationally Labour will come in with <5 seats, and Joan wont be one of them.

spooky donkey

yes ill be voting anti water, that rules out most of the afore mentioned parties.....

athtrasna

spooky donkey wrote: »

yes ill be voting anti water, that rules out most of the afore mentioned parties.....

Personally I'm pro-water, though I prefer the stuff that comes out of the tap to the stuff that comes from the sky :P

Murt10

I was polled outside Tesco's about two weeks ago and given a mock ballot paper for Dublin 15 to fill in, as I would in an immediate election.

After I completed it, I asked the pollster how things were going. Varadker and Burton were polling well here, but in other parts of the Constituency, Coppinger, SF and the hard Left were doing well.

FF were a complete washout everywhere. Roderick O'Gorman, who I gave my No 1 to, was picking up votes in all areas of the constituency.

Go Roderick Go!!!!

Grudaire

Larbre34 wrote: »

I would rule out both FF and Labour.

Any half-coherent campaign by an anti-water charge candidate, more radical than either Coppinger or SF, will win a seat.

Nationally Labour will come in with <5 seats, and Joan wont be one of them.

Realistically though there's two seats for FF/FG from the Castleknock, Navan Road votes. And two for left leaning candidates SF/SP - Joan could get in, but it will involve squeezing past FF, and is unlikely.

It's wishful thinking to say there's ththree far left wing seats in constituency.

Larbre34

I don't wish for it at all.

I do however believe that with Labour down in the margin of error, the transfer friendliness of the centrist vote can no longer be relied on. In fact a galvanised left wing vote may turn the tap off on it altogether.

The best thing Fine Gael could do for Labour is to put Leo up as a sole candidate. They are dreaming if they think he might drag in a second seat in a 4 seater with this social profile.

Pat Dunne

Grudaire wrote: »

Roderic O'Gorman for the greens who hippies to build on a good bye election result

Love the Freudian slip

chucknorris

I won't make any predictions until the FF convention is completed tomorrow evening. :cool:

Gaspode

Really -a General Election thread already? Do you not have anything better to be talking about!

As with the previous Election discussion threads, we would expect anyone with connections (including family/personal friend/canvasser) to any candidate to declare this in the interests of full disclosure. Should we discover that you have failed to do so you can expect a ban from this forum.
Any personal attacks will not be tolerated.

Gaspode

Grudaire wrote: »

So things are already heating up in Dublin West in perpetration for the General Election.

To someone not involved in the politics tomfoolery and who generally has zero interest in politics can you define what 'heating up in Dublin West' means?

Grudaire

Gaspode wrote: »

To someone not involved in the politics tomfoolery and who generally has zero interest in politics can you define what 'heating up in Dublin West' means?

Mainly Fianna Fáil effectively tearing themselves apart.

I've moved to the Navan Road (a new part of the Dublin West constituency) and campaigning had truly started. Regular leaflets already coming in from Joan, Varadkar and perhaps presumptuously from Jack Chambers..

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

Mainly Fianna Fáil effectively tearing themselves apart.

I've moved to the Navan Road (a new part of the Dublin West constituency) and campaigning had truly started. Regular leaflets already coming in from Joan, Varadkar and perhaps presumptuously from Jack Chambers..

Not at all. It's local democracy. 8 people who live in Hollystown and who were always in Dublin west, were moved to Dublin Fingal after the boundary change, unbeknownst to them, and after repeated requests for over 15 months to stay in Dublin west.

The convention is right beside Hollystown tomorrow night and those people felt disenfranchised to find they never received their invitation to vote.

ps: I'm a FF canvasser and I have canvassed the Navan road for the last three weeks. I suspect the general election will be in September or October.

ThisRegard

I think the support for the left is over estimated and no bigger than previously. Relatively speaking I think there have been very few protests against the installation of water metres, in my estate I didn't see one person protest.

Godge

A good place to start is with previous election results.

Here are the first preference results from the last local elections (I will see can I get a full count as the transfer pattern was interesting).

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2014L&cons=35

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2014L&cons=186

Here is the full Dublin West 2014 by-election.

http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2011B&cons=112&ref=129

Donnelly (SF) tops the poll but finishes third behind Coppinger.

Here is the first preference 2011 by-election which saw Nulty get elected.

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011B&cons=112

Again, if I can find the full count I will put it up.

Finally, here is the February 2011 full count from the last general election:

http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2011&cons=112&ref=

Plenty of information to digest. If we can get the full counts, some analysis of transfer patterns can be done. I am sure that the political parties will have done some of that themselves, but the activists may be slow to share it.

P.S. I am not a member of any party, at the moment my intention is vote Roderic No.1 and transfer to FG and then Lab. That may change as it has before.

chucknorris

ThisRegard wrote: »

I think the support for the left is over estimated and no bigger than previously. Relatively speaking I think there have been very few protests against the installation of water metres, in my estate I didn't see one person protest.

Dublin west is left leaning for sure. More left leaning people are more determined to vote than previously. That's not a bad thing at all.

chucknorris

Godge wrote: »

Here is the full Dublin West 2014 by-election.

http://electionsireland.org/counts.c...ns=112&ref=129

Donnelly (SF) tops the poll but finishes third behind Coppinger.

3rd behind McGuinness and Coppinger.

The David Hall factor took a 1000 votes away from Fianna Fail last year. Had he not run, FF would have taken that by-election seat.

Larbre34

I do hope some issue or event forces the general election very soon.

By their own admission, the Government are not going to touch any potential hot potatoes ahead of the election for fear of an Irish Water style crisis, so they wont regularise surrogacy or sell Aer Lingus or do anything of consequence. Instead they are selling inertia as stability and a Country in as much bother as ours deserves much better.

chucknorris

Larbre34 wrote: »

I do hope some issue or event forces the general election very soon.

By their own admission, the Government are not going to touch any potential hot potatoes ahead of the election for fear of an Irish Water style crisis, so they wont regularise surrogacy or sell Aer Lingus or do anything of consequence. Instead they are selling inertia as stability and a Country in as much bother as ours deserves much better.

I think it's clear they are doing for the Autumn. When spring is over, summer is a quiet time for politics. in fact it's non existent.

They have already started the promises and will hit an election in Autumn before anything else blows up.

Fine Gael will do well in the GE. labour I would say will be wiped out.

Godge

chucknorris wrote: »

3rd behind McGuinness and Coppinger.

The David Hall factor took a 1000 votes away from Fianna Fail last year. Had he not run, FF would have taken that by-election seat.

That is a theory.

Another theory is had FG run anyone other than Coghlan, McGuinness wouldn't have been anywhere.

It will be interesting to see who FF pick for the general election. With Chambers, Mary Fitzpatrick and possibly a Lenihan in the mix, McGuinness might have a running mate. There may well have to be a female candidate on the ticket for gender balance which would rule Chambers out this time.

chucknorris

Godge wrote: »

It will be interesting to see who FF pick for the general election. With Chambers, Mary Fitzpatrick and possibly a Lenihan in the mix, McGuinness might have a running mate. There may well have to be a female candidate on the ticket for gender balance which would rule Chambers out this time.

None of what you say is or can be true.

There is already a decision that Dublin west will be a one candidate election in terms of FF.

Mary Fitz is not running in Dublin west and neither is anyone from the Lenihan family.

It's quite simple really. The local Dublin west FF members will decide tomorrow who'll represented FF in the G.E. It'll be either McGuinness or Chambers.

AlanG

Its hard to see anything other than an election late next spring as:

- Labour will want time to get back up in the polls.
- Everyone wants to give Syriza a chance to fail - Gerry Adams is already distancing himself from them. If Greece leaves the euro SF and the hard left here will be lucky to get 15%. If Syriza roll into line, Noonan will take the AAA apart in debates.
- The Gov has money to give out in the budget and that wont hit home until January. (especially if they sell Aer Lingus)
- FG want to control the 1916 celebrations.
- Unemployment is actually dropping.