Property Market 2015

handlemaster

http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/return-of-property-porn-as-prices-go-through-the-roof-30857063.html


What are your predictions for 2015 property market both rental and sales.

Theboinkmaster

Why does anyone ever bother linking to that rag :rolleyes:

Limited supply offset by new cb rules, end of cgt relief and cash buyers decreasing I think reduction of 5% is my guess, on national prices.

Maybe add a poll?

The_Conductor

From the same publication: New Property Crash in July 2015 will make jaws drop......

Who knows what will happen........ Excess supply in rural locations is being used again- and any sites in desireable areas- even where development can only happen at a loss- is happening (Look at Michael O'Flynns- Rokeby Park in Lucan- which is costing a total of 70 million to develop- but only likely to sell for 42-45 million (given its only 70 properties!))

Developers are not being advanced finance- other than by NAMA- which in itself speaks volumes.

2015- is wind down mode for the forthcoming general election- the politicians are unlikely to do anything- literally anything- at all- that might come back to haunt them.........

So- the market is winding down at the moment- and its only likely to accelerate in my opinion.........

hfallada

I think 2015 might see foreign investors investing into Ireland. The risk is pretty minimal considering sites are still quite cheap and offer an excellent return on investment compared to cities like Munich or London. I know a few high profile sites just sold in Dublin(5 acre site on former Smurfit Kappa factory in Glasnevin, Former steelworks site on Church St, D1), so supply will increase, but will be only a drop in the ocean.

The_Conductor

I'm not so sure- development costs are already far exceeding development costs even in locations like London or Munich- our construction workers have quite unrealistic salary expectations- and site costs- have vast gains factored into their expectations- some realistic, others not.

I can see office space continue to increase in price- I'm really not so sure about residential or commercial though- both are far more problematic........

Fkall

Dublin houses prices +8%
Dublin Apartment prices + 10%
Rents Dublin +10%

handlemaster

cgt exemption was only an incentive not sufficient in itself to move a market like wise cash buyers. The underlining value seen by investors with future potential growth was and is more of a driver. There is a residential short fall which investors have bought into which has also given rise to good rental yields. The short fall is set to continue for at least two years. I dont see a fall off in prices not from month to month perhaps a cooling off or a wait and see early next year by buyers with increases coming again in the middle of the year. The economy is doing well and very well when compared to the rest of europe.

rental prices in dublin will increase further due to job creation bith private and public theres an election coming !!! And more notably supply has not increased.

hadoken13

Hopefully the new building regulations introduced by that clown Hogan, will be relaxed a bit as it's getting far too costly to build at the moment.

hadoken13

As handlemaster said supply is not out there and with that prices will keep rising. We need tons more houses to be built.

handlemaster

hadoken13 wrote: »

As handlemaster said supply is not out there and with that prices will keep rising. We need tons more houses to be built.

how much does it cost to build an average 950sq ft house ? in Dublin. excluding site cost

I seen a burnt out house in the last allsops auction go for well over 100k cant remember exactly the price it was in dublin 15 . I would have thought a reno afterwards would have cost 50K / 60K plus depending on internal damage. I think it was sheepmoor dublin 15 . I just thought at the time people must be really desperate to buy.


p.s found it link below

http://www.allsopspace.ie/auction/lot/28132

hadoken13

handlemaster wrote: »

how much does it cost to build an average 950sq ft house ? in Dublin. excluding site cost

I seen a burnt out house in the last allsops auction go for well over 100k cant remember exactly the price it was in dublin 15 . I would have thought a reno afterwards would have cost 50K / 60K plus depending on internal damage. I think it was sheepmoor dublin 15 . I just thought at the time people must be really desperate to buy.

Not sure about renovations but new builds are far too costly.

BryanF

handlemaster wrote: »

I would have thought a reno afterwards would have cost

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=56&field=file

handlemaster

BryanF wrote: »

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=56&field=file

Going by that rebuild of 95sq metre home dublin would ne 170k plus cost of site. So houses un dublin 15 are very cheap

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

So houses un dublin 15 are very cheap

It really depends on the part of Dublin 15- keep in mind it includes the likes of Castleknock, Blanchardstown, Clonsilla etc- alongside the less desireable areas of Clonee, Corduff etc. There are parts of Dublin 15- which the Gardaí will not patrol- while there are also parts of Dublin 15- which are more expensive than parts of Dublin 4.........

Dublin 15- also hosts the Blanchardstown shopping centre, Google, eBay, Quinn (or whatever they're called these days) etc- it has major key employers in the area- so its not like some of the other deprived areas of Dublin- which are akin to parts of Sarajevo on a bad day......

murphaph

And it has the train to the city depending on where you are.

Tarzana2

Can't give the analysis others can here.

But I've decided to brace for a rent increase this year. I'm in D15, lease is up at the start of May. So if start of April passes with no word, happy days! But I'll expect it so as not to be taken unawares.

braddun

cheap money creates a bubble,then it crashes

El_Dangeroso

Rents up by 2% nationally (steady but with slight increase)

Rents up 4% Dublin

House prices down by 5% nationally

Down by 10% in Dublin

I'm basing these predictions upon full implementation of 20% rule by the CB.

marco_polo

I predict plenty more rubbish articles from the indo on the topic.

handlemaster

Tarzana2 wrote: »

Can't give the analysis others can here.

But I've decided to brace for a rent increase this year. I'm in D15, lease is up at the start of May. So if start of April passes with no word, happy days! But I'll expect it so as not to be taken unawares.

If you are on last years rate wouldnt be much of a change

Tarzana2

handlemaster wrote: »

If you are on last years rate wouldnt be much of a change

Yeah, crossing my fingers and toes here. We're in Ashtown but not right in the village, about a 20 min walk away. Our location isn't actually all that convenient for the train, so I'm hoping that will depress the rents a bit in our complex. It's a nice gaff though so I wanna stay put!

handlemaster

Tarzana2 wrote: »

Yeah, crossing my fingers and toes here. We're in Ashtown but not right in the village, about a 20 min walk away. Our location isn't actually all that convenient for the train, so I'm hoping that will depress the rents a bit in our complex. It's a nice gaff though so I wanna stay put!

No reason to depress prices at all.

power101

Static prices or fall of max 10%

1) Capital gains tax exemption has ended-Biggest reason for recent price increases.
2)Large number of repossessed properties to be sold
3)Higher limits on mortgages

johnp001

power101 wrote: »

Static prices or fall of max 10%

1) Capital gains tax exemption has ended-Biggest reason for recent price increases.
2)Large number of repossessed properties to be sold
3)Higher limits on mortgages

If house prices start to drop next year(due to CGT/no cash buyers, new mortgage limits, increased sale of repossessions) then the price drops will not be limited to 10% and will continue to drop for some time. Currently property prices are being chased up by buyers who see it as an asset that is constantly rising in value (both at the moment and historically for most of the last 20 years) whenever the circumstances occur that cause this behaviour to stop prices will fall for a long time until affordability returns as all the cash that was waiting on the sidelines in the last crash to inflate a dead cat bounce won't be there this time around.

who_ru

I think any fall in prices will be accompanied by vested interests leading a campaign to make credit more easily available, they might not call for already zoned land in Dublin not being used to be taxed etc.

But ultimately banks are unwilling to lend to developers on the scale that is needed, in Dublin at least, to help provide housing that is affordable. Housing in Dublin is simply unaffordable for many and I don't see that changing any time soon.

Certainly fewer transactions in 2015 I would say as half the market, that is cash buyers, have bought. Property prices in Dublin now make investment an unwise choice.

Don't expect any major solutions from this govt.

johnp001

who_ru wrote: »

Housing in Dublin is simply unaffordable for many and I don't see that changing any time soon.

Definitely agree that it is unaffordable. Interesting analysis here http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/mortgage-affordability-1690278-Sep2014/

who_ru wrote: »

Certainly fewer transactions in 2015 I would say as half the market, that is cash buyers, have bought. Property prices in Dublin now make investment an unwise choice.

Fewer transactions due to 50% reduction in demand as described above definitely translates to lower prices.

who_ru wrote: »

Don't expect any major solutions from this govt.

This government has made some populist statements about the cb mortgage lending rules but it has presided over the removal of mortgage interest relief, introduction of property tax, and (eventual) removal of CGT exemption.
Better track record than the previous government's efforts to desperately keep the property bubble inflating indefinitely.

handlemaster

Indo sets out its stall based on 50 agents view ;-)))

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/strong-2015-predicted-for-house-market-outside-dublin-30867259.html

johnp001

handlemaster wrote: »

Indo sets out its stall based on 50 agents view ;-)))

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/strong-2015-predicted-for-house-market-outside-dublin-30867259.html

Comments under that article are worth a look too!

Just looking down this forum at the thread from the seller deliberating on whether to sell now at break even point or hold on until next year for profits. I wonder how a reversal in prices would affect supply? A lot of commentators say lower prices would constrict supply as people won't sell "below value" but if there are sellers holding out for the top of the market, when it becomes obvious that this top has passed there will likely be a rush to offload assets that are now falling in value.

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

Indo sets out its stall based on 50 agents view ;-)))

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/strong-2015-predicted-for-house-market-outside-dublin-30867259.html

So basically- Dublin will see small rises- but mad 20%+ increases for rural areas (presumably outside of Cork/Galway- which have experienced Dublin's rises).

I don't think so............

I'd also suggest whoever wrote the article might like to actually look at the PRTB and the CSO stats- the price rises in Dublin did not peter out in Q4- as they are suggesting- the biggest petering out happened back in Q2- before which prices had wild swing and after which wild swings also occurred. One month alone accounts for over 7% of the annual price rise on record........

As for a delay in sales- 6 weeks is now optimistic- sales have pretty much stalled (from talking to receivers)- and up to 75% of agreed sales are falling through.........

The picture being portrayed in that article are unrealistically rosy.

gaius c

The indo did print one article predicting drops but it was clearly intended to be satirical and humourous. That's how preposterous they consider such predictions to be.

who_ru

The_Conductor wrote: »

So basically- Dublin will see small rises- but mad 20%+ increases for rural areas (presumably outside of Cork/Galway- which have experienced Dublin's rises).

I don't think so............

.

Exactly. Rural Ireland, where there are far far fewer job opportunities, far lower average incomes compared to urban centres and suddenly people in these areas are going to pay 20% more for property that they could by this year cheaper.

What a load of rubbish from the indo again. It's a joke of a title.