The White Christmas Thread 2014

Rebelbrowser

The 0z charts continue to suggest a seasonal and chilly Xmas day. There is plenty of precipitation around but need upgrades for snow though. Cold and wet as things stand. See below

Trogdor

GFS 06z parallel has the North and West getting some snow showers on christmas morning from a cold westerly/north-westerly, obviously it's still too far out for an accurate forecast but its still a possibility at least.

martinsvi

interesting, Im using a German GFS model - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
how can they produce such different results? German model paints a rather warm picture, temperatures possibly hitting double digits

Rougies

martinsvi wrote: »

interesting, Im using a German GFS model - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
how can they produce such different results? German model paints a rather warm picture, temperatures possibly hitting double digits

The ones Trogdor posted are from the parallel GFS run. It's like the beta version of an upgraded GFS with higher resolution.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html

Kermit.de.frog

Good news folks!


Things they are a changing. Looking much more interesting now in the run up to Christmas and thereafter as the first tangible signs of much colder weather with the risk of snow appear on the models.

Don't get too excited yet though!

Here is the GFS - exactly what we want to see. High pressure building toward Greenland and troughs moving north to south.



UKMO also teeing us up nicely for the run up to Christmas with mid Atlantic ridge poised.

bb1234567

don't mind if there's no snow so long as its chilly...4/5 degrees or so

kstand

Yep, that recent run certainly looks more interesting. Long way to go yet but worth watching now.
Also worth watching the threads for the first person to say something like "the building blocks are in place".

martinsvi

kstand wrote: »

Yep, that recent run certainly looks more interesting. Long way to go yet but worth watching now.
Also worth watching the threads for the first person to say something like "the building blocks are in place".

am I going to be the first one saying - I don't get this joy about cold weather? which part most excites you - high heating bills, being stuck in traffic or spending holidays at home as weather is not really travel friendly? yeah yeah, scrooge, I know...

kstand

martinsvi wrote: »

am I going to be the first one saying - I don't get this joy about cold weather? which part most excites you - high heating bills, being stuck in traffic or spending holidays at home as weather is not really travel friendly? yeah yeah, scrooge, I know...

The novelty does tend to wear off a day or so after heavy snowfall when paths become dangerous etc.

Rebelbrowser

As is obvious from other posts in other threads the GFS' suggestion of a cold Christmas is presently getting endorsed elsewhere.:):):):) Alas that can change. Only yesterday Met E were still talking of a mild Christmas (eventhough you'll note posts above from a few days back questioning that....). Still 8 days to go so nothing is set in stone by any means.

If current forecasts verify it will be very seasonal on the big day but the snow will still be a day or two away. TBH I think that's win-win - you want to be able to travel on 24 to 26 Christmas (not least a certain red suited fella with lots of travel to do) but by 27 December, with most of us off and the kids off too, its the ideal time for snow (and sledging and snowmen and snow angels and....you get the picture).

Obviously the cold prospects for 26 Dec onwards are going to be the subject of lots of posts elsewhere. On this thread we had better just focus on 25 December itself.

Accordingly the below GFS chart from this morning shows -4 uppers over the whole country so it will be not much more than 3/4 degrees for much of the day and a Christmas Eve frost may well last all day in sheltered places. See below...



In fact there is a suggestion of some snow on Christmas morning in Ulster - see below:-



The suggestion then seems to be that there will then be a band of rain arriving on Christmas night but this will turn to snow, certainly in northern parts, in due course.

Will keep you posted....

pauldry

yeh right.

i think the models are going to pull back on this in time to just wintry showers and 3 to 6c

racso1975

pauldry wrote: »

yeh right.

i think the models are going to pull back on this in time to just wintry showers and 3 to 6c

Ya big doirty scrooge! !!!!!!! :-)

Its Only Ray Parlour

martinsvi wrote: »

am I going to be the first one saying - I don't get this joy about cold weather? which part most excites you - high heating bills

Your heating is on every day anyway during November - February. I suggest checking your bills over the last 4 years and comparing them to 2010. If you need to turn your heating up higher during a deep freeze, then I recommend having the insulation in your house looked at.

pauldry

im no bah
it will lash snow after xmas just not on xmas day humbug i like snow

s.m

2 things will happen either it will dodge us at last the last second or it will hit us but be nowhere as bad as predicted ( which really wouldn't surprise me )

shmaupel

This time 4 years ago i remember coming out of supervalu withe the Christmas shopping in the middle of the day and it was -6°.

Oh the memories. ......

I also remember waking up Christmas morning and only realising the pipes were frozen after my other half had emptied the tank having a shower!

Still. It'll go down as one of our most memorable Christmases.

It's 9.5° here atm. And drizzling constantly since yesterday morning.

As Homer Simpson would say, that sucks AND blows.

fryup

looks like we're going to get boring old mild wet weather as usual

even a foggy xmas day will do

kittyn

fryup wrote: »

looks like we're going to get boring old mild wet weather as usual

even a foggy xmas day will do

I wouldn't be so sure just yet ......

Rebelbrowser

fryup wrote: »

looks like we're going to get boring old mild wet weather as usual

even a foggy xmas day will do

What are you basing that on? Increasingly it looks like it's going to be cool and very possibly cold.

bpmurray

Have all the posters here been drinking? It's actually going to be warm through to Stephen's Day, with double-digit temperatures and absolutely zero chance of any snow, at least on the East coast. The West will get plenty of rain, if that's any consolation!

BLIZZARD7

bpmurray wrote: »

Have all the posters here been drinking? It's actually going to be warm through to Stephen's Day, with double-digit temperatures and absolutely zero chance of any snow, at least on the East coast. The West will get plenty of rain, if that's any consolation!

Pass us the crystal ball when you're finished. Thanks.

Very encouraging signs today for a colder regime to take hold sometime between Christmas day and the new year. Some excellent charts from The gfs especially today with the other models showing similar variations of the same theme. The North west/North has the best chance of seeing some of the white stuff on Christmas day as it stands, Even then though its only a possibility... No guarantees. Will be Saturday/Sunday before we get a clearer picture.

sideswipe

fryup wrote: »

looks like we're going to get boring old mild wet weather as usual

even a foggy xmas day will do

Fog around Christmas is not that unusual.......sure isn't that how Rudolf got his big break;)

Harry Palmr

The latest runs pretty much put snow to bed I think.

icesnowfrost

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The latest runs pretty much put snow to bed I think.

How do u figure? Charts are looking 100 times better for cold than they did a day ago

barney 20v

icesnowfrost wrote: »

How do u figure? Charts are looking 100 times better for cold than they did a day ago

I think he meant for Xmas

pauldry

cold just after xmas for a day or two then roasting !:cool:

NoMore MrNiceGuy

pauldry wrote: »

cold just after xmas for a day or two then roasting !:cool:

That's FI.

leahyl

pauldry wrote: »

cold just after xmas for a day or two then roasting !:cool:

Ah here!

pauldry

nah sorry it is fi but the high on wetterzentrale looks very red.

surely going to be something wintry from 26th to 28th or 29th then high pressure

NoMore MrNiceGuy

pauldry wrote: »

nah sorry it is fi but the high on wetterzentrale looks very red.

surely going to be something wintry from 26th to 28th or 29th then high pressure

Which will lead to..... Cold. You know. Winter.