The White Christmas Thread 2014

Rebelbrowser

Tis that time of year again folks. Only 43 sleeps left til Christmas day! More interestingly, Christmas day is now within the range of the ever reliable CFS forecast.

And alas its not looking great right now - see below. A rather balmy outlook unfortunately.



Happily the CFS changes (quite literally!) everyday so who knows what it will show tomorrow.

There are a few Christmas Weather pages on the usual weather sites you might want to keep an eye on.

The first Netweather Christmas outlook is at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess= .

Theweatheroutlook have had a Christmas page since 1 September however - they are now on update no. 10, bless them. Its to be found at http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast .

I know the MT's winter LRF on this site is presently going for mild too.

Keep the faith though. Many a slip twixt cup and lip and all of that.

Will update in a few days.

Rebelbrowser

Just thought I'd update this thread.

According to the CFS, and to my untrained eye, things are getting a bit interesting. It shows a bit of a cold spell starting in the week running up to Christmas and the below chart for noon on the big day itself is pretty chilly.



Unfortunately the various internet Christmas forecasts are all a few days old and seem to reflect older output so I'd be happy for confirmation I'm reading this correctly!

pauldry

the first 10 days of december look pretty dry then North and Northwesterly winds with some showers of wintry type. Not -10c or anything like that. prob 4 to 7c

After this the High may try and win out again

Tomorrow it will prob say wet n windy

No one knows but at present the Winter looks a lot less stormy than last year with a lot of calm weather in the lead up to Christmas almost certain

Rebelbrowser

Just to update this. The big day is 4 weeks away - still way too far out to have any real regard to forecasts - even too far out for patterns of note really.

The CFS is still belching out its LRFs though and today's is pasted below. A bit of a cold plunge from the North to my untrained eye (sub 528 Dam which I recall as being a good thing!) but nothing to write home about. Cold not far from our shores to the east and mild to the west but we seem to be in a cool air pool under an area of high pressure for much of the month. All to play for accordingly.





The UK MET does a 4 week forecast and a relevant extract from it is also pasted below. Not hugely informative....

"UK Outlook for Friday 12 Dec 2014 to Friday 26 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places. There is also a chance of some snow on higher ground in the north.

Updated at: 0301 on Thu 27 Nov 2014"

It will be another 2 weeks before we can start to give any tangible guidance (and even then at a high level). Until then, Christmas FM starts again on Saturday so you can while away the next few weeks listening to Bing Crosby and keeping your hopes up.....

Rebelbrowser

Just to quickly add to my earlier post. The Netweather Winter forecast is out and has possibly good news for those of us seeking a White Christmas (or some White during 12 days of Christmas perhaps).....

"......December

December is likely to start with a similar pattern that is being experienced during November but with some subtle differences. The Scandinavian block is set to continue to dominate during the first part of the month though is likely to retreat slightly more into Russia. However, the jet stream is likely to veer further south as the month progresses elongating and stretching the North Atlantic polar field. This will then slowly allow heights to build further north to the northwest of the UK until eventually a block is formed in this area. This will create an environment for any wave breaking into the stratosphere to create a SSW. At that point towards the end of the month, the UK will be at the mercy of polar air and a cold spell will develop. The length and timing of the cold spell will be determined by the extent of the stratosphere polar vortex collapse but at this point it is expected to last well into January. A negative NAO will eventually become established.

Troughing is expected to dominate initially over and then to the south of the UK and this will dig further south towards the end of the month. Overall the temperature of the month is likely to be around average - any colder spells will be tempered by the above average temperatures forecast for the start of the month.

Precipitation is likely to be above average for the south and below average for the north.

The one proviso here is that this likely pattern could be accelerated or delayed depending upon the success of the stratospheric wave break. Any significant wind events are likely to be early enough the month as the jet stream becomes invigorated prior to the stratospheric changes.

---

January

January is likely to start with the continued cold theme (or become cold if the stratospheric wave break hasn’t occurred yet). The risk of significant snowfall is most likely during these weeks of winter. The early winter Scandinavian block will fade as a more west based negative NAO becomes established. The cold will slowly fade in intensity as often in these situations, the block that prevented the westerly winds from reaching the UK moves west, allowing milder Atlantic air to break through. There still exists the possibility of further cold intrusions during this time before the stratospheric vortex reorganizes and influences the troposphere again..."

kittyn

I wonder will Keith Barry's prediction be right then ...... Here's hoping 😊

Greenmachine

I reckon I have more chance of winning the lottery than Keith Barry's prediction being anywhere close to accurate.

Irelandcool

Where would the best location this year for any possible blizzards in ireland if I was a storm chaser.

Rebelbrowser

Firstly, thanks to the Mods for giving this annual thread a stay of execution. Hopefully the weather Gods will reciprocate with some snow.

A good place to start the update is to note the present UK Met Guidance being

"UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 6 Jan 2015:

The rest of December through into the beginning of the New Year will most likely stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely in the north and west, whilst there may be more in the way of dry and settled spells of weather across the south and east. Temperatures will likely be around average for the time of year but still with some overnight frosts.

Updated at: 0305 on Mon 08 Dec 2014"

So that tends to suggest an unsettled Christmas. That dovetails with the latest view from Netweather who in their Christmas forecast yesterday said

"....from the CFS ..it's a pretty unsettled one with low pressure nearby and just a hint of some air cold enough for snow. Obviously we're still just looking for trends at this stage though, rather than that being the specific picture for the big day. Overall, taking into account the CFS, the monthly models and the expected pattern during the run-up to the Christmas period, the most likely scenario is a quite unsettled Xmas with the highest risk of snow across the north of the country. We're still far enough out for that to change though, and with quite a lot of uncertainty even at closer range currently, there's bound to be a few twists and turns to come....".

That said the CFS generally shows it'll be pretty cool in the period around the big day, see some extracts below.



and



There is milder air to the SW but it never really makes any inroads. The general over pressure position as at Christmas Eve is forecast as follows:-



Anyway the GFS starts to forecast far enough out later this week so our guesses will become slightly more educated from then......

pauldry

think at this stage

Christmas Day 5 to 8c windy showery some showers of hail and sleet

Northwesterlies

Rebelbrowser

Bit of a teaser today from MTC "....Would say 22-23 Dec is likely to be fairly unsettled and 24-25 Dec a bit less so in this pattern, but there could actually be some snow around for a change this year (seems like I am always saying mild at Christmas except in 2010 it was late St Stephen's Day). For now will speculate and say mixed wintry showers around, 4-6 C.....".

Promising.....

pauldry

theyv changed the long range outlook now as High Pressure to the SOuth exerts more of an influence it gets milder in the run up to xmas

Larbre34

UK Met are also backing very typical weather for Christmas week, unsettled from the W/NW, average or slightly below temps, breezy, spells of rain interspersed with colder periods with some wintry showers, mainly to high ground.

On alternative days you might see some mountain snow in Ireland over Christmas but other than that the main populated areas will have sunshine, rain spells or showers and some frosty nights, 5-7C maxima.

Nothing at all to get excited about.

omicron

Well we're in GFS range for Christmas now, at the moment showing us under some fairly cold air with some precipitation around on the 24th with milder weather coming in on christmas day, although obviously we're only on the lookout for trends at the moment!



GFS Parallel run is much milder.

Edit: GEM has high pressure developing over Finland/western Russia around day 10, and a slack easterly flow over Ireland, but not from a particularly cold source and nothing exciting.

Rebelbrowser

Yuck....

esposito

Larbre34 wrote: »

UK Met are also backing very typical weather for Christmas week, unsettled from the W/NW, average or slightly below temps, breezy, spells of rain interspersed with colder periods with some wintry showers, mainly to high ground.

On alternative days you might see some mountain snow in Ireland over Christmas but other than that the main populated areas will have sunshine, rain spells or showers and some frosty nights, 5-7C maxima.

Nothing at all to get excited about.

It's after Christmas when the fun begins.

Blizzard 2010

A forthnight to go to the big day:eek: Write off a White Christmas at your peril,

Rebelbrowser

A very merry Christmas to all from the new GFS.....



and



:):):):):):):):):):)

Rebelbrowser

Out of date now but yesterday's Netweather xmas forecast was as follows..

"As we look further ahead and track in towards Christmas, the unsettled weather stays with us - so some wet, windy spells, some milder spells, and some colder spells as systems move through, and at this stage the pattern does look set to last through into Xmas week.

....We're into the range of the medium range models now, but still a bit too far out to be looking at a specific forecast for Christmas day, so we're using the 'postage stamps' from the GEFS Ensembles. This shows a range of scenarios for the big day, and allows us to see what may be the most likely scenario and guage confidence in that........On most options there's low pressure not too far away, so an unsettled day looks more likely currently, it's then all about the timing and the position of that low pressure as to whether the UK is in a milder or colder airmass. On this particular update, a good number have us in colder northwest winds, with one or two colder still northerlies, but there are some milder possibilities too.

Where this leaves us on this update is in a similar place to our last update - so it's the northern half of the country in with the best shot of seeing at least some snow this Xmas, but there is still enough going on to keep us on our toes as we hone in on the final forecast."

elecktras weather bomb

cant post charts but GFS parallel looking good again tonight. I know its two weeks out but another trend all the same. super model watching just hope this is the beginning of strat effects people are banging on about.

rickdangerouss

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

cant post charts but GFS parallel looking good again tonight. I know its two weeks out but another trend all the same. super model watching just hope this is the beginning of strat effects people are banging on about.

Matt Hugo, on twitter. He is pushing back that SSW again, all FI. However, I think he is on the right path, that Low in north russia is not going anywhere.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/543172395365052419


SSW might not be needed, but still.

pauldry

mild for christmas day now more likely

bah

force eleven

I foresee the sound of tumbleweed drifting through this thread in the run up to Christmas. Don't like to see the Azores high drifting east toward central Europe like a giant slug, means mild uneventful dross really for Christmas - if it happens.

On the positive side travel would not be impacted too much (fog perhaps).

Elmer Blooker

pauldry wrote: »

mild for christmas day now more likely

bah

It might be a bit early to open a White Christmas 2015 thread?

omicron

Nothing nice at all on any model at the moment, but not a lot of confidence in an ensemble spread like this!

Rebelbrowser

Some general doom and gloom around for Christmas outlook elsewhere but there seems to me to be a good chance it will be cold on the big day - albeit snow looks unlikely admittedly as things stand (but still 10 days to go).

This morning's ECM is pretty chilly -



The overnight GFS was a horror show but the 6z just out in the last few minutes is much cooler:-



In fact 6z parallel is also quite chilly:-



So Bing still has a chance of getting a blast in 10 days time in my book. That said historically a White Christmas is always a long shot and at the moment the mobile pattern of the weather suggests you will have a cycle of 2 days coldish, two days mildish for the next while. The big day could still end up being in a mild spell and unfortunately this happens all too often for my liking (BBQ Christmases as one poster, no longer posting, used to style them).

tylercollins

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Some general doom and gloom around for Christmas outlook elsewhere but there seems to me to be a good chance it will be cold on the big day - albeit snow looks unlikely admittedly as things stand (but still 10 days to go).

This morning's ECM is pretty chilly -

[snip]

So what you're saying is that camping on Christmas Eve is a good to go

xXxkorixXx

I don't care - I'll be in my winter coat, scarf, hat and gloves. Mild this time of year is cold in my book regardless. I might seem crazy but I don't care. A warm Christmas just isn't the same. I'd hate it

NIMAN

Latest reports all speak of a mild Xmas day.

Personally I could live with snow on Xmas day, as long as there is none on Xmas Eve or Bocing Day.

GavinH

Hi all,

My wife is travelling to Cork via Dublin on the 26th from Utah (moved here 3 years ago from Cork). This morning she mentioned the facebook was awash about a big storm after Christmas towards the New Year. She is flying back out of Dublin on the 31st after travelling up from Cork. She is concerned that if the storm materializes she may not make it up to Dublin. So the question is there anything in FI land indicating that there is a chance of winter storm between Christmas and New Years?

thanks

Gav

gugsy

GavinH wrote: »

Hi all,

My wife is travelling to Cork via Dublin on the 26th from Utah (moved here 3 years ago from Cork). This morning she mentioned the facebook was awash about a big storm after Christmas towards the New Year. She is flying back out of Dublin on the 31st after travelling up from Cork. She is concerned that if the storm materializes she may not make it up to Dublin. So the question is there anything in FI land indicating that there is a chance of winter storm between Christmas and New Years?

thanks

Gav

Too far to tell yet whats gonna happen. but keep a look out on the weather forum and the lads here will have some updates as the day's progress. Also look on weather forcasting site like weatherweb.net for daily video's of weather patterns for the coming weeks.